Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with ...Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.展开更多
In this study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to numerically simulate the well-known "98.7" heavy rainfall event that affected the Yangtze Valley in July 1998. Two experiments were conducted to...In this study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to numerically simulate the well-known "98.7" heavy rainfall event that affected the Yangtze Valley in July 1998. Two experiments were conducted to analyze the impact of moist processes on the development of meso-β scale vortices(MβV) and their triggering by mesoscale wind perturbation(MWP). In the experiment in which the latent heat feedback(LHF) scheme was switched off, a stable low-level col field(i.e., saddle field—a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) formed, and the MWP triggered a weak MβV. However, when the LHF scheme was switched on as the MWP was introduced into the model, the MβV developed quickly and intense rainfall and a mesoscale low-level jet(mLLJ) were generated. The thickness of the air column and average temperature between 400 and 700 hPa decreased without the feedback of latent heat, whereas they increased quickly when the LHF scheme was switched on, with the air pressure falling at low levels but rising at upper levels. A schematic representation of the positive feedbacks among the mesoscale vortex, rainfall, and mLLJ shows that in the initial stage of the MβV, the MWP triggers light rainfall and the latent heat occurs at low levels, which leads to weak convergence and ageostrophic winds. In the mature stage of the MβV, convection extends to the middle-to-upper levels, resulting in an increase in the average temperature and a stretching of the air column. A low-level cyclonic circulation forms under the effect of Coriolis torque, and the m LLJ forms to the southeast of the MβV.展开更多
Local breeding of growing modes(LBGM)is a method used to generate initial condition perturbation(ICP)for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts.Equal weights(EWs)are usually presumed in LBGM during the localization ...Local breeding of growing modes(LBGM)is a method used to generate initial condition perturbation(ICP)for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts.Equal weights(EWs)are usually presumed in LBGM during the localization of ICP,without considering different contributions of the grid points within the local radius.To address this problem,Gaussian weights(GWs)are proposed in this study,which can accommodate the varied influences of the grids inside the local radius on the central grid through a Gaussian function.Specifically,two convection-permitting ensemble forecast experiments based on LBGM with GWs and EWs are compared and analyzed respectively for two squall line cases.The results showed that the use of the GWs intensified the local characteristics of the ICP and made the distribution of the ICP fields more flow-dependent.Kinetic energy spectrum of the ICP indicated that there could be more large-scale information in the ICP by using the GWs.In addition,mesoscale information also improved slightly.For forecast of nonprecipitation variables,GWs improved the relationship between the root-mean-square error and the spread and contributed to the forecasting accuracy of wind,temperature,geopotential height,and humidity.For the precipitation forecast,GWs simulated the precipitation structure successfully and provided better probability forecasting during the evolution of the two squall line processes than the EWs.展开更多
Importance: The current lack of reliable rapid tests for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections has contributed to antibiotic misuse.Objective: This study aimed to develop a novel biomarker assay that i...Importance: The current lack of reliable rapid tests for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections has contributed to antibiotic misuse.Objective: This study aimed to develop a novel biomarker assay that integratesFAM89A andIFI44L measurements to assist in differentiating between bacterial and viral infections.Methods: This prospective study recruited children with febrile illness from two hospitals between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2019. A panel of three experienced pediatricians performed reference standard diagnoses of all patients (i.e., bacterial or viral infection) using available clinical and laboratory data, including a 28-day follow-up assessment. Assay operators were blinded to the reference standard diagnoses. The expression levels ofFAM89A andIFI44L were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction assessment.Results: Of 133 potentially eligible patients with suspected bacterial or viral infection, 35 were excluded after the application of exclusion criteria. The resulting cohort included 98 patients: 59 with viral diagnoses and 39 with bacterial diagnoses. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of diagnoses usingFAM89A andIFI44L were 0.694 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.583-0.804] and 0.751 (95%CI: 0.651-0.851), respectively. The disease risk score (DRS) [log2(FAM89A expression) - log2(IFI44L expression)] signature achieved an improved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, 0.825;95%CI: 0.735-0.915), compared with the AUC generated from individual host RNA. A combination of the DRS and the C-reactive protein (CRP) level achieved an AUC of 0.896 (95%CI: 0.825-0.966). Optimal cutoffs for the DRS and CRP level were -3.18 and 19.80 mg/L, respectively.Interpretation: The DRS was significantly more accurate than the CRP level in distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections;the combination of these two parameters exhibited greater sensitivity and specificity. This study provides information that could be useful for the clinical application ofFAM89A andIFI44L in terms of distinguishing between viral and bacterial infections.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275099,41275012,41205073)
文摘Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.
基金supported by the National Grand Fundamental Research 973 Program of China (Grant No.2015CB452800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41275099,41205073 and 41275012)the Natural Science Foundation of the Nanjing Joint Center of Atmospheric Research (Grant No.NJCAR2016MS02)
文摘In this study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to numerically simulate the well-known "98.7" heavy rainfall event that affected the Yangtze Valley in July 1998. Two experiments were conducted to analyze the impact of moist processes on the development of meso-β scale vortices(MβV) and their triggering by mesoscale wind perturbation(MWP). In the experiment in which the latent heat feedback(LHF) scheme was switched off, a stable low-level col field(i.e., saddle field—a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) formed, and the MWP triggered a weak MβV. However, when the LHF scheme was switched on as the MWP was introduced into the model, the MβV developed quickly and intense rainfall and a mesoscale low-level jet(mLLJ) were generated. The thickness of the air column and average temperature between 400 and 700 hPa decreased without the feedback of latent heat, whereas they increased quickly when the LHF scheme was switched on, with the air pressure falling at low levels but rising at upper levels. A schematic representation of the positive feedbacks among the mesoscale vortex, rainfall, and mLLJ shows that in the initial stage of the MβV, the MWP triggers light rainfall and the latent heat occurs at low levels, which leads to weak convergence and ageostrophic winds. In the mature stage of the MβV, convection extends to the middle-to-upper levels, resulting in an increase in the average temperature and a stretching of the air column. A low-level cyclonic circulation forms under the effect of Coriolis torque, and the m LLJ forms to the southeast of the MβV.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1501803)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975128 and 41875060)。
文摘Local breeding of growing modes(LBGM)is a method used to generate initial condition perturbation(ICP)for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts.Equal weights(EWs)are usually presumed in LBGM during the localization of ICP,without considering different contributions of the grid points within the local radius.To address this problem,Gaussian weights(GWs)are proposed in this study,which can accommodate the varied influences of the grids inside the local radius on the central grid through a Gaussian function.Specifically,two convection-permitting ensemble forecast experiments based on LBGM with GWs and EWs are compared and analyzed respectively for two squall line cases.The results showed that the use of the GWs intensified the local characteristics of the ICP and made the distribution of the ICP fields more flow-dependent.Kinetic energy spectrum of the ICP indicated that there could be more large-scale information in the ICP by using the GWs.In addition,mesoscale information also improved slightly.For forecast of nonprecipitation variables,GWs improved the relationship between the root-mean-square error and the spread and contributed to the forecasting accuracy of wind,temperature,geopotential height,and humidity.For the precipitation forecast,GWs simulated the precipitation structure successfully and provided better probability forecasting during the evolution of the two squall line processes than the EWs.
基金This study was supported by the Special Fund of the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No. 2018ZX10305409)Beijing Hospital Authority "Dengfeng" Talent Training Plan(DFL 20181201)Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen(SZSM201512030)
文摘Importance: The current lack of reliable rapid tests for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections has contributed to antibiotic misuse.Objective: This study aimed to develop a novel biomarker assay that integratesFAM89A andIFI44L measurements to assist in differentiating between bacterial and viral infections.Methods: This prospective study recruited children with febrile illness from two hospitals between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2019. A panel of three experienced pediatricians performed reference standard diagnoses of all patients (i.e., bacterial or viral infection) using available clinical and laboratory data, including a 28-day follow-up assessment. Assay operators were blinded to the reference standard diagnoses. The expression levels ofFAM89A andIFI44L were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction assessment.Results: Of 133 potentially eligible patients with suspected bacterial or viral infection, 35 were excluded after the application of exclusion criteria. The resulting cohort included 98 patients: 59 with viral diagnoses and 39 with bacterial diagnoses. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of diagnoses usingFAM89A andIFI44L were 0.694 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.583-0.804] and 0.751 (95%CI: 0.651-0.851), respectively. The disease risk score (DRS) [log2(FAM89A expression) - log2(IFI44L expression)] signature achieved an improved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, 0.825;95%CI: 0.735-0.915), compared with the AUC generated from individual host RNA. A combination of the DRS and the C-reactive protein (CRP) level achieved an AUC of 0.896 (95%CI: 0.825-0.966). Optimal cutoffs for the DRS and CRP level were -3.18 and 19.80 mg/L, respectively.Interpretation: The DRS was significantly more accurate than the CRP level in distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections;the combination of these two parameters exhibited greater sensitivity and specificity. This study provides information that could be useful for the clinical application ofFAM89A andIFI44L in terms of distinguishing between viral and bacterial infections.