An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale:A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City,China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.

An Integrated Modelling Approach Inmountainous Watershed of Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

An integrated modelling approach is developed to simulate ecological economics processes of mountainous watershed of Heihe river basin, northwest China. The objectives are 1) a hydrologic unit model HLM_HMU was developed;2) the impacts of LUCC on the hydrological processes based on different scenarios were simulated respectively;and 3) the Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) curve of prohibition grazing is given. The hydrological results show that the observed and simulated data have a good fit, in which the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, balance error, and explained variance are 0.69, -0.13, and 0.62, respectively;the model can simulate the majority of peaks well;the source code of Spatial Modelling Environment (SME) needs to be deeply understood to improve the algorithms of interpolation and conflux;the PES result shows that prohibition grazing will occur completely when the price of PES reached to 17.42 yuan, and the increased amount of ecosystem services is 2.13 × 108 m3.The main purpose of this paper is to build a better understanding of developing a meaningful integrated model in the study area to solve its ecological and economic problems.

Simulating land-use change and its effect on biodiversity conservation in a watershed in northwest China

Introduction:Land-use management strategies play a major role in biodiversity change.In many parts of the world,local governments are under increasing pressure to regulate human activity to mitigate negative impacts on ecosystems.Outcomes/other:This study aimed to analyze the effects of different land-use patterns on biodiversity change across a typical artificial desert watershed.We first analyzed land-cover change based on past and future management scenarios in a watershed spanning Gaotai,Linze,and Ganzhou counties in northwest China.We then analyzed the effect of different land-use patterns on biodiversity change in the watershed.We found that the crucial landcover changes are likely to occur in the wetland reserves and areas established for the Grain for Green Project around the oases,and such changes could affect biodiversity throughout the entire watershed landscape.Discussion:The use of spatial analysis to illustrate explicit changes in ecosystems is useful in fostering biodiversity awareness and the need for decision-making at different scales.Conclusion:Thus,these findings indicate that land-use management strategies for the middle and southeast parts of the watershed are particularly important for future management of biodiversity and the integrated ecosystem services of the entire watershed landscape.

Integrated assessment of the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services in the Loess Plateau during 1992-2015

Landscape alterations and ecosystem services(ES)are crucial elements that affect the socioecological development of ecologically fragile regions.To provide scientific support for the land-use planning and regional ecological restoration to achieve sustainable development goals(SDGs)in the Loess Plateau from 1992 to 2015,this study proposes an integrated assessment framework for assessing the supply-demand match and equilibrium of ES combining potential relationships between landscape alterations,ES,and sustainable development at the county and regional scales.Results show that more than 85%of local counties have a supply-demand mismatch in terms of ecosystem services.Supply-demand distributions for provisioning and supporting services were relatively balanced compared to cultural services,which were imbalanced.Although the overall supply-demand relationship is relatively balanced because of the significant influence of ecological restoration,it shows an increasing trend toward imbalance as human-land conflict is prominent in some regions.SDGs emphasize on specific ES information such as ecosystem conservation,sustainable agriculture,and urban construction.Furtherly,positive impacts from landscape dynamics can improve the supply capacity of the ES and contribute to regional sustainability.