为了揭示人类活动干扰对不同时空尺度水文干旱的影响,本文以辽西北大凌河流域为例,利用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型重建天然状态下的历史水文序列,基于多时间尺度的标准化径流指数(SSI),对比评估天然状态和人类活动影响...为了揭示人类活动干扰对不同时空尺度水文干旱的影响,本文以辽西北大凌河流域为例,利用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型重建天然状态下的历史水文序列,基于多时间尺度的标准化径流指数(SSI),对比评估天然状态和人类活动影响下的流域水文干旱演变特征。结果表明,人类活动干扰是流域径流序列在2000年发生显著突变的主要原因。在时间尺度上,人类活动对水文干旱的影响主要体现在月、季尺度,对年尺度、多年尺度的影响相对较小。在空间分布上,中游水文干旱受人类活动的干扰较下游更为显著。干旱季节性变化的分析表明,人类活动的影响导致冬、春季出现干旱的频率降低,而秋旱的频率增加;季尺度干旱的历时和烈度的均值和离散程度均呈上升态势。展开更多
The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin＇anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the su...The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin＇anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin＇anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.展开更多
A Distributed Forest Wetland Hydrologic Model （DFWHM） was constructed and used to examine water dynamics in the different climates of three different watersheds （a cold region, a sub-tropic region, and a large-scal...A Distributed Forest Wetland Hydrologic Model （DFWHM） was constructed and used to examine water dynamics in the different climates of three different watersheds （a cold region, a sub-tropic region, and a large-scale watershed）. A phenological index was used to represent the seasonal and species changes of the tree canopy while processes of snow packing, soil freezing, and snow and ice thawing were also included in the simulation. In the cold region, the simulated fall of the groundwater level in winter due to soil f^eezing and rise in spring due to snow and ice melting compare well with the observed data. Because the evapotranspiration and interaction of surface water and groundwater are included in the model, the modeled seasonal trend of the groundwater level in the sub-tropic region is in agreement with observations. The comparison between modeled and observed hydrographs indicates that the simulations in the large-scale watershed managed to capture the water dynamics in unsaturated and saturatedzones.展开更多
This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. T...This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. Two hydrological models, the snowmelt-runoff model （SRM） and the Danish NedbФr-AfstrФmnings rainfall-runoff model （NAM）, were used to simulate daily discharge processes in the Aksu River Basin. This study used the snow-covered area from MODIS remote sensing data as the SRM input. With the help of ArcGIS software, this study successfully derived the digital drainage network and elevation zones of the basin from digital elevation data. The simulation results showed that the SRM based on MODIS data was more accurate than NAM. This demonstrates that the application of remote sensing data to hydrological snowmelt models is a feasible and effective approach to runoff simulation and prediction in arid unguaged basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor.展开更多
An existing Bayesian flood frequency analysis method is applied to quantile estimation for Pearson type three (P-III) probability distribution. The method couples prior and sample information under the framework of Ba...An existing Bayesian flood frequency analysis method is applied to quantile estimation for Pearson type three (P-III) probability distribution. The method couples prior and sample information under the framework of Bayesian formula, and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach is used to estimate posterior distributions of parameters. Different from the original sampling algorithm (i.e. the important sampling) used in the existing approach, we use the adaptive metropolis (AM) sampling technique to generate a large number of parameter sets from Bayesian parameter posterior distributions in this paper. Consequently, the sampling distributions for quantiles or the hydrological design values are constructed. The sampling distributions of quantiles are estimated as the Bayesian method can provide not only various kinds of point estimators for quantiles, e.g. the expectation estimator, but also quantitative evaluation on uncertainties of these point estimators. Therefore, the Bayesian method brings more useful information to hydrological frequency analysis. As an example, the flood extreme sample series at a gauge are used to demonstrate the procedure of application.展开更多
文摘为了揭示人类活动干扰对不同时空尺度水文干旱的影响,本文以辽西北大凌河流域为例,利用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型重建天然状态下的历史水文序列,基于多时间尺度的标准化径流指数(SSI),对比评估天然状态和人类活动影响下的流域水文干旱演变特征。结果表明,人类活动干扰是流域径流序列在2000年发生显著突变的主要原因。在时间尺度上,人类活动对水文干旱的影响主要体现在月、季尺度,对年尺度、多年尺度的影响相对较小。在空间分布上,中游水文干旱受人类活动的干扰较下游更为显著。干旱季节性变化的分析表明,人类活动的影响导致冬、春季出现干旱的频率降低,而秋旱的频率增加;季尺度干旱的历时和烈度的均值和离散程度均呈上升态势。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50479017)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No. IRT071)
文摘The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin＇anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin＇anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Knowledge Innovation Project (Grant No. KZCX1-YW-08)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50679018)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (PCSIRT) (Grant No. IRT0717)
文摘A Distributed Forest Wetland Hydrologic Model （DFWHM） was constructed and used to examine water dynamics in the different climates of three different watersheds （a cold region, a sub-tropic region, and a large-scale watershed）. A phenological index was used to represent the seasonal and species changes of the tree canopy while processes of snow packing, soil freezing, and snow and ice thawing were also included in the simulation. In the cold region, the simulated fall of the groundwater level in winter due to soil f^eezing and rise in spring due to snow and ice melting compare well with the observed data. Because the evapotranspiration and interaction of surface water and groundwater are included in the model, the modeled seasonal trend of the groundwater level in the sub-tropic region is in agreement with observations. The comparison between modeled and observed hydrographs indicates that the simulations in the large-scale watershed managed to capture the water dynamics in unsaturated and saturatedzones.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2006CB400502)the World Bank Cooperative Project(Grant No.THSD-07)the 111 Program of the Ministry of Education and the State Administration of Foreign Expert Affairs,China(Grant No.B08048)
文摘This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. Two hydrological models, the snowmelt-runoff model （SRM） and the Danish NedbФr-AfstrФmnings rainfall-runoff model （NAM）, were used to simulate daily discharge processes in the Aksu River Basin. This study used the snow-covered area from MODIS remote sensing data as the SRM input. With the help of ArcGIS software, this study successfully derived the digital drainage network and elevation zones of the basin from digital elevation data. The simulation results showed that the SRM based on MODIS data was more accurate than NAM. This demonstrates that the application of remote sensing data to hydrological snowmelt models is a feasible and effective approach to runoff simulation and prediction in arid unguaged basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Pro-gram of China ("973" Program) (Grant No. 2007CB714104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50779013)
文摘An existing Bayesian flood frequency analysis method is applied to quantile estimation for Pearson type three (P-III) probability distribution. The method couples prior and sample information under the framework of Bayesian formula, and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach is used to estimate posterior distributions of parameters. Different from the original sampling algorithm (i.e. the important sampling) used in the existing approach, we use the adaptive metropolis (AM) sampling technique to generate a large number of parameter sets from Bayesian parameter posterior distributions in this paper. Consequently, the sampling distributions for quantiles or the hydrological design values are constructed. The sampling distributions of quantiles are estimated as the Bayesian method can provide not only various kinds of point estimators for quantiles, e.g. the expectation estimator, but also quantitative evaluation on uncertainties of these point estimators. Therefore, the Bayesian method brings more useful information to hydrological frequency analysis. As an example, the flood extreme sample series at a gauge are used to demonstrate the procedure of application.
