Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases.This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand,foot,and mouth disease...Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases.This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in China.A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in China's Mainland from 2015 to 2020.The absolute difference(AD)and relative difference(RD)between the reported incidence in 2020,and simulated maximum,minimum,or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated.The incidence and R effof HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19,and in the second half of 2020,the incidence and R effof HFMD have rebounded.The results show that the total attack rate(TAR)in 2020 was lower than the maximum,minimum,and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities(except Changsha City).For the maximum,median,minimum fitted TAR,the range of RD(%)is 42·20-99·20%,36·35-98·41%48·35-96·23%(except Changsha City)respectively.The preventive and control measures of COVID-19 have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission.展开更多
Introduction:Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)in China.The study aims to estimate effectiveness o...Introduction:Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)in China.The study aims to estimate effectiveness of booster vaccines for high-risk populations(HRPs).Methods:A vaccinated Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed(SEIAR)model was developed to simulate scenarios of effective reproduction number(Reff)from 4 to 6.Total number of infectious and asymptomatic cases were used to evaluated vaccination effectiveness.Results:Our model showed that we could not prevent outbreaks when covering 80%of HRPs with booster unless Reff=4.0 or the booster vaccine had efficacy against infectivity and susceptibility of more than 90%.The results were consistent when the outcome index was confirmed cases or asymptomatic cases.Conclusions:An ideal coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)booster vaccination strategy for HRPs would be expected to reach the initial goal to control the transmission of the Delta variant in China.Accordingly,the recommendation for the COVID-19 booster vaccine should be implemented in HRPs who are already vaccinated and could prevent transmission to other groups.展开更多
What is already known about this topic?COVID-19 has a high transmissibility calculated by mathematical model.The dynamics of the disease and the effectiveness of intervention to control the transmission remain unclear...What is already known about this topic?COVID-19 has a high transmissibility calculated by mathematical model.The dynamics of the disease and the effectiveness of intervention to control the transmission remain unclear in Jilin Province,China.What is added by this report?This is the first study to report the dynamic characteristics and to quantify the effectiveness of interventions implemented in the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Jilin Province,China.The effective reproduction number of the disease before and after May 10 was 4.00 and p<0.01,respectively.The combined interventions reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19 by 99% and the number of cases by 98.36%.What are the implications for public health practice?The findings of this study would add data on the transmission of COVID-19 and provide evidence to prepare the second outbreak transmission of the disease in other areas of China even in many other countries.展开更多
基金This study was partly supported by the Bill&Melinda Gates Foun-dation(INV-005834).
文摘Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases.This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in China.A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in China's Mainland from 2015 to 2020.The absolute difference(AD)and relative difference(RD)between the reported incidence in 2020,and simulated maximum,minimum,or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated.The incidence and R effof HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19,and in the second half of 2020,the incidence and R effof HFMD have rebounded.The results show that the total attack rate(TAR)in 2020 was lower than the maximum,minimum,and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities(except Changsha City).For the maximum,median,minimum fitted TAR,the range of RD(%)is 42·20-99·20%,36·35-98·41%48·35-96·23%(except Changsha City)respectively.The preventive and control measures of COVID-19 have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission.
文摘Introduction:Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)in China.The study aims to estimate effectiveness of booster vaccines for high-risk populations(HRPs).Methods:A vaccinated Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed(SEIAR)model was developed to simulate scenarios of effective reproduction number(Reff)from 4 to 6.Total number of infectious and asymptomatic cases were used to evaluated vaccination effectiveness.Results:Our model showed that we could not prevent outbreaks when covering 80%of HRPs with booster unless Reff=4.0 or the booster vaccine had efficacy against infectivity and susceptibility of more than 90%.The results were consistent when the outcome index was confirmed cases or asymptomatic cases.Conclusions:An ideal coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)booster vaccination strategy for HRPs would be expected to reach the initial goal to control the transmission of the Delta variant in China.Accordingly,the recommendation for the COVID-19 booster vaccine should be implemented in HRPs who are already vaccinated and could prevent transmission to other groups.
基金partly supported by the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(INV-005834)the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province(No:2020Y0002)+1 种基金the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program(No:3502Z2020YJ03)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics(SKLVD2019KF005).
文摘What is already known about this topic?COVID-19 has a high transmissibility calculated by mathematical model.The dynamics of the disease and the effectiveness of intervention to control the transmission remain unclear in Jilin Province,China.What is added by this report?This is the first study to report the dynamic characteristics and to quantify the effectiveness of interventions implemented in the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Jilin Province,China.The effective reproduction number of the disease before and after May 10 was 4.00 and p<0.01,respectively.The combined interventions reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19 by 99% and the number of cases by 98.36%.What are the implications for public health practice?The findings of this study would add data on the transmission of COVID-19 and provide evidence to prepare the second outbreak transmission of the disease in other areas of China even in many other countries.