Background and Aims:It is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)via prevailing predictive models.This study aimed to dev...Background and Aims:It is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)via prevailing predictive models.This study aimed to develop an innovative model to enhance the analytical efficacy of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.Methods:In this study,149 HBV-ACLF patients were evaluated by constructing a death risk prediction nomogram.Bootstrap resampling and an independent validation cohort comprising 31 patients from June 2019 to February 2020 were assessed for model confirmation.Results:The nomogram was constructed by entering and identifying five factors age,total bilirubin,prothrombin activity(PTA),lymphocyte(L)%,and monocyte(M)%.Healthy refinement was achieved from the nomogram analysis,where the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864 for the training cohort and 0.874 was achieved for the validation cohort.There was admirable concordance between the predicted and true results in the equilibrium curve.The decision curve assessment revealed the useful clinical application of the nomogram.Conclusions:We constructed an innovative nomogram and validated it for the prediction of 90-day HBV-ACLF patient outcomes.This model might help develop optimized treatment protocol recommendations for HBV-ACLF patients。展开更多
基金supported by the Municipal Natural Science Foundation of Beijing,China(No.7192085)National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2018ZX10302206-003-007)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82002461)Medjaden Academy and Research Foundation for Young Scientists(MJR20211110)as well as the Fund for Fostering Young Scholars of Peking University Health Science Center(BMU2021PY010).
文摘Background and Aims:It is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)via prevailing predictive models.This study aimed to develop an innovative model to enhance the analytical efficacy of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.Methods:In this study,149 HBV-ACLF patients were evaluated by constructing a death risk prediction nomogram.Bootstrap resampling and an independent validation cohort comprising 31 patients from June 2019 to February 2020 were assessed for model confirmation.Results:The nomogram was constructed by entering and identifying five factors age,total bilirubin,prothrombin activity(PTA),lymphocyte(L)%,and monocyte(M)%.Healthy refinement was achieved from the nomogram analysis,where the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864 for the training cohort and 0.874 was achieved for the validation cohort.There was admirable concordance between the predicted and true results in the equilibrium curve.The decision curve assessment revealed the useful clinical application of the nomogram.Conclusions:We constructed an innovative nomogram and validated it for the prediction of 90-day HBV-ACLF patient outcomes.This model might help develop optimized treatment protocol recommendations for HBV-ACLF patients。
