Struggle zone: alpine shrubs are limited in the Southern Urals by an advancing treeline and insufficient snow depth

In recent decades,the rapid climate warming in polar and alpine regions has been accompanied by an expan-sion of shrub vegetation.However,little is known about how changes in shrub distribution will change as the distribution of tree species and snow cover changes as temperatures rise.In this work,we analyzed the main environmental factors influencing the distribution and structure of Juniperus sibir-ica,the most common shrub species in the Southern Ural Mountains.Using mapping and digital elevation models,we demonstrated that J.sibirica forms a well-defined vegeta-tion belt mainly between 1100 and 1400 m a.s.l.Within this zone,the abundance and cover of J.sibirica are influenced by factors such as rockiness,slope steepness,water regime and tree(Picea obovata)cover.An analysis of data spanning the past 9 years revealed an upward shift in the distribution of J.sibirica with a decrease in its area.The primary limit-ing factors for the distribution of J.sibirica were the removal of snow cover by strong winter winds and competition with trees.As a consequence of climatic changes,the tree line and forest limit have shifted upward,further restricting the distribution of J.sibirica to higher elevations where com-petition for light with trees is reduced and snow cover is sufficiently deep.

Expansion of Juniperus sibirica Burgsd.as a response to climate change and associated effect on mountain tundra vegetation in the Northern Urals

Shrub expansion into arctic and alpine tundra is one of the prominent vegetation changes currently underway.We studied the expansion of shrub vegetation into high elevation tundra in the Kvarkush Range of the Northern Ural mountains,Russia.Age structure analysis of the dominant shrub Juniperus sibirica Burgsd.seems to support ongoing upslope advance of shrubs,a process particularly active in the second half of the 20 th century.We found a close connection between the expansion of shrub vegetation and the general change in climatic conditions of the cold season(months with mean airtemperature below 0°Сfrom November to March).In general,the greatest influence on the distribution of J.sibirica is exerted by the climate conditions of the beginning(November-January)and the end(March)of the cold season.With increasing elevation,the correlation coefficients between the establishment of J.sibirica shrubs and the precipitation of the beginning of the cold season increased,and reached maximum values at the top elevation level of the study area.However,the upwards shift of J.sibirica into typical mountain tundra does not lead to changes in the ecological structure of vegetation at this stage,but simply a decrease in the area of mountain tundra.