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热带气旋研究和业务预报进展--第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会(IWTC-9)综述 被引量:13
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作者 端义宏 方娟 +6 位作者 程正泉 徐晶 李青青 占瑞芬 钱传海 陈静 任福民 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2020年第3期537-550,共14页
2018年12月3-7日在美国夏威夷召开的第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会对国际热带气旋研究和预报预警业务的近期进展进行了充分回顾,并对未来的发展方向进行了系统研讨。过去4年(2015-2018年),在热带波动和对流对热带气旋生成的影... 2018年12月3-7日在美国夏威夷召开的第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会对国际热带气旋研究和预报预警业务的近期进展进行了充分回顾,并对未来的发展方向进行了系统研讨。过去4年(2015-2018年),在热带波动和对流对热带气旋生成的影响、复杂环境影响热带气旋路径转向的机理、对流和风垂直切变对热带气旋强度变化的作用机制、双眼墙形成和替换机理、热带气旋变性过程对环境条件的响应、热带气旋气候变化特征、热带气旋多平台观测技术等诸多方面的研究取得了显著进展。同时,在热带气旋生成概率预报、全球模式中热带气旋强度预报改进、热带气旋活动次季节业务预测技术发展以及热带气旋预报不确定性理论等方面也取得积极进展。在综述此次会议的相关议题后,简要讨论中国热带气旋研究和业务发展方向。 展开更多
关键词 热带气旋 研究进展 预报预警 综述
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Statistical characteristics of the double ridges of subtropical high in the Northern Hemisphere 被引量:7
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作者 zhan ruifen LI Jianping HE Jinhai 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2005年第20期2336-2341,共6页
The generality and some climatological charac- teristics of the double ridge systems of subtropical high (SH) are investigated statistically by using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1958 to 1998. The results ... The generality and some climatological charac- teristics of the double ridge systems of subtropical high (SH) are investigated statistically by using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1958 to 1998. The results show that the SH double-ridge event is a common phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere, with the distinct seasonal and re- gional features, that is, the majority of SH double-ridge geneses concentrate over the eastern North India Ocean- western North Pacific as well as the central North Pacific in the period from mid-July to mid-September. Especially over the western North Pacific subtropics, the SH double-ridge events are extremely active. It is found that the life cycle of most double-ridge events of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is shorter but some still last longer. The WPSH dou- ble-ridge events occur most frequently from July to Septem- ber, while there is a paucity of occurrences during Novem- ber-March. Also, it is shown that the WPSH double-ridge events have a strong interannual variation with a certain periodicity which possesses a remarkably abrupt change in the mid-1970s. Additionally, the relationship between the WPSH double ridges and the meridional movement of WPSH is discussed. 展开更多
关键词 亚热带高度 双脊系统 回归线 北半球 气候学
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Role of ENSO in the interannual relationship between Tibetan Plateau winter snow cover and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency 被引量:6
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作者 zhan ruifen DING YiHui +1 位作者 WU LiGuang LEI XiaoTu 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第10期2009-2021,共13页
Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSC) and tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCF) over the western North Pacific (WNP... Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSC) and tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific (CP) E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than (lower than) normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold (warm) phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP. 展开更多
关键词 Western North Pacific Tropical cyclone Snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau ENSO Interdecadal shift
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