气候变化通过大气CO_(2)浓度、温度和降雨的改变,直接或间接影响农田温室气体排放,研究未来气候情景下农田温室气体排放对实现农业碳减排具有重要意义。为探究气候变化背景下农田温室气体排放特征,该研究在长期田间定位试验基础上,利用...气候变化通过大气CO_(2)浓度、温度和降雨的改变,直接或间接影响农田温室气体排放,研究未来气候情景下农田温室气体排放对实现农业碳减排具有重要意义。为探究气候变化背景下农田温室气体排放特征,该研究在长期田间定位试验基础上,利用当前大气CO_(2)浓度与CO_(2)浓度升高条件下旱作玉米农田温室气体排放通量的田间观测数据,采用“试错法”对DayCent模型进行校验,并利用校验后的模型,根据第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6,CMIP6)气候情景数据,预测未来SSP126(低排放水平)与SSP245(中等排放水平)气候情景下旱地玉米农田温室气体排放通量。结果表明,DayCent模型对不同大气CO_(2)浓度下N_(2)O、CH_(4)和CO_(2)排放通量的模拟值与观测值高度一致,模拟效率(modeling efficiency,EF)分别为0.58~0.87、0.45~0.65和0.25~0.62,均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)分别为0.83~1.33 g/(hm^(2)·d)、0.67~0.82 g/(hm^(2)·d)和0.58~0.80 g/(m^(2)·d),决定系数(coefficient of determination,R^(2))分别为0.80~0.91、0.53~0.80和0.53~0.85。SSP126和SSP245气候情景下,在玉米单作种植模式下旱地农田N_(2)O和CO_(2)年排放量均呈现上升趋势,以2001—2020年农田温室气体排放通量为基准,到2060年N_(2)O年排放量分别增加22.8%和24.9%,CO_(2)年排放量分别增加6.7%和8.0%;旱地农田CH_(4)年吸收量呈下降趋势,两个气候情景下分别减少13.6%和13.4%。未来气候情景下旱地农田仍是温室气体排放源,优化氮肥管理和农田耕作措施对实现温室气体减排具有重要意义,模拟结果可以为制定农业适应气候变化对策提供基础数据支持。展开更多
The multi-scale spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and isohyets in Ningxia were studied using daily,monthly,and annual precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia...The multi-scale spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and isohyets in Ningxia were studied using daily,monthly,and annual precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia over the last 60 years.The results revealed that the intensity of rainstorms in Ningxia had decreased slightly over the previous 60 years,with the intensity of rainstorms in southern and central Ningxia being higher than in northern areas.Ningxia's annual and seasonal precipitation varied regionally,declining from the southeast to the northwest.Annual,spring and autumn precipitation exhibited a significantly declining trend from 1960 to the early 21^(st)century;summer precipitation displayed a slightly decreasing trend;and winter precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend.Nevertheless,there was a noticeable increase in annual and seasonal precipitation after 2005.From the 1960s to the 2000s,the 200 mm isohyet moved slowly southward,while the 400 mm isohyet jumped southward twice in the 1970s and 2000s before jumping considerably northward in the 2010s to reach their northernmost region.展开更多
文摘气候变化通过大气CO_(2)浓度、温度和降雨的改变,直接或间接影响农田温室气体排放,研究未来气候情景下农田温室气体排放对实现农业碳减排具有重要意义。为探究气候变化背景下农田温室气体排放特征,该研究在长期田间定位试验基础上,利用当前大气CO_(2)浓度与CO_(2)浓度升高条件下旱作玉米农田温室气体排放通量的田间观测数据,采用“试错法”对DayCent模型进行校验,并利用校验后的模型,根据第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6,CMIP6)气候情景数据,预测未来SSP126(低排放水平)与SSP245(中等排放水平)气候情景下旱地玉米农田温室气体排放通量。结果表明,DayCent模型对不同大气CO_(2)浓度下N_(2)O、CH_(4)和CO_(2)排放通量的模拟值与观测值高度一致,模拟效率(modeling efficiency,EF)分别为0.58~0.87、0.45~0.65和0.25~0.62,均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)分别为0.83~1.33 g/(hm^(2)·d)、0.67~0.82 g/(hm^(2)·d)和0.58~0.80 g/(m^(2)·d),决定系数(coefficient of determination,R^(2))分别为0.80~0.91、0.53~0.80和0.53~0.85。SSP126和SSP245气候情景下,在玉米单作种植模式下旱地农田N_(2)O和CO_(2)年排放量均呈现上升趋势,以2001—2020年农田温室气体排放通量为基准,到2060年N_(2)O年排放量分别增加22.8%和24.9%,CO_(2)年排放量分别增加6.7%和8.0%;旱地农田CH_(4)年吸收量呈下降趋势,两个气候情景下分别减少13.6%和13.4%。未来气候情景下旱地农田仍是温室气体排放源,优化氮肥管理和农田耕作措施对实现温室气体减排具有重要意义,模拟结果可以为制定农业适应气候变化对策提供基础数据支持。
基金Sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China(42161008)Ningxia Natural Science Foundation(2021AAC03070)。
文摘The multi-scale spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and isohyets in Ningxia were studied using daily,monthly,and annual precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia over the last 60 years.The results revealed that the intensity of rainstorms in Ningxia had decreased slightly over the previous 60 years,with the intensity of rainstorms in southern and central Ningxia being higher than in northern areas.Ningxia's annual and seasonal precipitation varied regionally,declining from the southeast to the northwest.Annual,spring and autumn precipitation exhibited a significantly declining trend from 1960 to the early 21^(st)century;summer precipitation displayed a slightly decreasing trend;and winter precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend.Nevertheless,there was a noticeable increase in annual and seasonal precipitation after 2005.From the 1960s to the 2000s,the 200 mm isohyet moved slowly southward,while the 400 mm isohyet jumped southward twice in the 1970s and 2000s before jumping considerably northward in the 2010s to reach their northernmost region.
