The Impact of the Eastward Propagation of Convective Systems over the Tibetan Plateau on the Southwest Vortex Formation in Summer

Based on the temperature of the black body (TBB),station observed and NCEP reanalysis data,the impacts of the eastward propagation of convective cloud systems over the Tibetan Plateau on the southwest vortex (SWV) formation that occurred at 1800 UTC on 29 June 2003 are analyzed by using the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) equation to diagnose the thermal and dynamic processes.It is found that,in summer,severe convective activities often occur over the Tibetan Plateau due to the abundant supply of moisture.The convective cloud near the east edge of the plateau could move eastward with a shortwave trough in the westerly.The divergent center that is induced by latent heat release,which is associated with severe convective activities,moves out with the convective cloud and contributes to the low level decompression which is favorable for the formation of plateau edge cyclogenesis (PEC).The Z-O equation indicates that,in this case,the latent heat release and convergence are the two most important factors for SWV formation,which amounts to about 42% and 15% of the term TOTAL,respectively.It is implied that the thermal process effect was more important than the dynamic process during SWV formation.

The Possible Mechanism of a Type of Vortex Heavy Rainfall during the Pre-Rainy Season in South China

In this paper,NCEP reanalysis data,intensive observation data collected from field experiment,model simulation data,and topographic trial data are fully analyzed to study a severe heavy rainfall event during 5 6 June 2008 in South China.Unlike most warm region rainfall cases,this one is associated with an obvious vortex system,which draws in water vapor and energy from the southwest monsoon surges ahead of a low trough above the Bengal Bay (BLT,Bengal Low Trough).At the lower troposphere,three currents,especially the southwest current and the east current,converge into the southeast of the vortex.Thus,the distributions of strong vorticity,water vapor,and ascending motion cause frequently occurrence and growth of convection there.The possible reasons for this rainfall event are summarized as a conceptual model.

An Analysis of the Eddy Kinetic Energy Budget of a Southwest Vortex during Heavy Rainfall over South China

Based on the 6-hour-interval reanalysis data with 1o×1o resolution from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget of a southwest vortex (SWV) that caused heavy rainfall in Guangxi over South China (from 1200 UTC 11 to 0000 UTC 13 June) is calculated. The results are as follows: (a) The SWV is a kind of subtropical vortex, with characteristics of both an extratropical vortex and a tropical vortex. (b) In the case examined, large-scale circulation and other perturbation fields contributed to the formation and development of the SWV. (c) When the SWV moved from weak large-scale circulation EKE areas to strong ones, the EKE of the SWV increased, and vice versa. (d) Sub-grid processes and frictional dissipation were the main sinks of the SWV EKE, which contributed to the decay of the SWV. (e) The residual term (RES) and the Total (composite effect of all right hand side (rhs) terms except the RES in the EKE equation) varied almost in the same tendency, which kept the EKE varying in a moderate way. (f) The EKE between 550 hPa and 850 hPa increased most intensively, corresponding to the vertical stretching of the SWV.

Study on the Dynamic Characteristics of an Eastward-offshore Mesoscale Vortex along the Meiyu-Baiu Front

The eastward-moving Meiyu-Baiu frontal mesoscale vortices (MBFMVs) appear frequently and often cause heavy rainfall events along their tracks. A move-off-shore MBFMV was selected to enhance our understanding of this type of vortex. Synoptic analyses indicate that the MBFMV is a type of meso-α vortex and mainly occurs in the lower troposphere. A short wave trough near the coastline is highly favorable for the formation, sustainment, and displacement of the MBFMV. Vorticity budgets indicate that at lower levels of the MBFMV, convergence is the dominant factor for the increase of positive vorticity, and at high levels of the MBFMV, the vertical transportation associated with convective activities is the most important factor. The hori-zontal transportation was the main factor decreasing the positive vorticity. The land and sea environments are crucial to the evolution of the MBFMV. The characteristics of the Meiyu-Baiu Front (MBF) are also vital to the variation of the vortex.

Analysis of ‘9.4' unusual rainfall in Beijing during autumn 2015

In this paper, an unusual rainfall in Beijing that occurred on 4 September(‘9.4') 2015 is studied to clarify the reasons for such a strong rainfall in autumn. It was indicated that various factors, including stationary westerlies disturbance(i.e. low in the west and high in the east), forward-titling trough,warm shear line, unstable stratification and convective available potential energy release, low level jet as well as a series of mesoscale convective systems produced the strong rainfall. Ordinarily, this situation is uncommon in autumn.

Analysis of a Beijing Heavy Snowfall Related to an Inverted Trough in November 2009

This paper studies a heavy snowfall in Beijing that took place on 1 November 2009. The date of the snowfall was about one month earlier than the average. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, conventional data, and Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data are utilized to explore the reasons for the snowfall and the influencing systems. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) It is revealed from the average geopotential height and average temperature fields at 500 hPa that the large scale circulation in November 2009 was favorable to snowfall. The cold-dry air from West Siberia and the warm-moist air from the Bay of Bengal converged in North China. In addition, it was found from the average moisture flux field at 700 hPa that the main water vapor source was in the Bay of Bengal. (2) Not only the "return current", as usually accepted, but also the inverted trough on the current had an important contribution to the snowfall. The inverted trough could produce the obvious upward motion that is an important environmental condition of snowfalls. (3) More attention should be paid to mesoscale systems such as mesolows during the cold season because of their importance, though they do not occur as frequently as in the warm season. It should be pointed out that AWS data are very useful in mesoscale system analysis during both warm and cold seasons.

Forecasting the Quasi-stationary Front Rainstorm in Southeast China Using the Synthetically Multilevel Analog Forecast Technology

The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.