Discovery of the Significant Impacts of Swell Propagation on Global Wave Climate Change

This study compared the differences in the wave climate in the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean under these two datasets:ERA-40 wave reanalysis and Mei’s hindcast wave data.In the numerical calculation of regional ocean waves,the wave climate characteristics exhibited significant bias if the influence of external swells(swells from afar)was not fully considered,which may provide an incorrect basis for global climate change analysis.1)The trends of the significant wave height(SWH)obtained from the two datasets showed significant differences,such as those of the Bay of Bengal and the Java Sea in June-July-August.For the past 45 years,SWH from ERA-40(SWH-ERA)exhibited a significant annual increase in low-latitude waters of the North Indian Ocean(0.2-0.6 cm yr^(-1))and South China Sea(0.2-0.8 cm yr^(-1)).2)In the Bay of Bengal,the SWH-ERA in each month was generally 0.5 m higher than the SWH from Mei’s hindcast wave data(SWH-Mei)and can reach 1.0 m higher in some months.3)In the Bay of Bengal,SWH-ERA and SWH-Mei increased significantly at annual rates of 0.13 and 0.27 cm yr^(-1),respectively.This increasing trend was mainly reflected after 1978.SWH-ERA showed a trough in 1975(1.33 m)and a crest in 1992(1.83 m),which were not reflected in SWH-Mei.

巴基斯坦瓜达尔港风能资源的历史变化趋势及预测

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA-Interim海表10 m风场资料,计算巴基斯坦瓜达尔港的风能资源近36年(1979—2014年)期间的历史变化趋势,并利用线性回归和BP神经网络两种方法,对该港的风能资源进行长期年度预测,得到以下结果。1)瓜达尔港夏季的风能资源比冬季丰富,且夏季的稳定性明显好于冬季。2)近36年期间,风能密度、有效风速频率和100 W/m^2以上能级频率分别以-0.78 W/(m^2·a),-0.21%/a和-0.22%/a的速度逐年显著递减,且该趋势主要体现在夏季,冬季无显著变化趋势;风能资源的稳定性(变异系数、月变化指数和季节变化指数)无显著变化趋势。3)从预测值来看,瓜达尔港的风能资源在2015年与多年平均状态持平,2016年则趋于更丰富;2015—2016年,风能资源的稳定性比多年平均状态略差。研究结果可以为"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设以及中国海域的岛礁和港口建设提供依据和参考。

海洋强国视野下的“海上丝绸之路”海洋新能源评估

"21世纪海上丝绸之路"("海上丝路")是构建"人类命运共同体"的重要举措,然而沿线薄弱的电力供应能力严重制约其高效展开。海洋新能源评估与开发既是破解"海上丝路"能源困局的最佳选择之一,也是推进互联互通、展开国际合作的良好契机,还是应对气候变化和常规能源紧缺的有效措施。本文首先论述海洋新能源在海洋强国建设中的重要作用,梳理资源评估现状,探析资源评估难点:资源气候特征详查、等级区划、与天文地球因子的相关、资源短期预报、长期演变规律、中长期预估、关键节点资源评价,并提供应对措施,为资源开发的精准选址、业务化运行和中长期规划提供科学依据,促进海洋新能源开发的产业化、规模化。最后展望海洋新能源数据集建设、人才培养与学科体系建设,为各国参与"海上丝路"建设的决策、科研、工程人员提供数据保障、决策支持。

“21世纪海上丝绸之路”:未来40年波浪能长期预估

针对波浪能长期规划的难题,本文建立了一套波浪能预估模型,并以“海上丝路”作为实例,以CMIP5风场驱动WW3海浪模式,对“海上丝路”2020—2059年的波浪能展开预估,覆盖能流密度、可利用率、富集程度、稳定性、资源月际差异等一系列关键指标。结果表明“海上丝路”未来40 a的波浪能整体趋于乐观:1)未来40 a平均状态下,“海上丝路”的能流密度为12~20 kW/m;南海和孟加拉湾未来的WPD高于历史状态,阿拉伯海则相反。2)该海域未来40 a平均的资源可用率、富集程度均比历史状态乐观。3)“海上丝路”未来40 a平均的资源稳定性好于历史状态(阿拉伯海未来2月和8月除外),其中孟加拉湾的稳定性好于南海和阿拉伯海。4)阿拉伯海未来40 a平均的月际差异最大,南海次之,孟加拉湾最小。阿拉伯海和南海未来的月际差异小于历史状态,孟加拉湾的月际差异与历史状态接近。

“21世纪海上丝绸之路”波浪能的气候特征及变化趋势

利用来自ECMWF的ERA-Interim海浪再分析资料,分析"21世纪海上丝绸之路"(后文简称"海上丝路",主要包括南海-北印度洋)波浪能资源的气候特征及长期变化趋势,结果表明:阿拉伯海的年平均波浪能流密度WPD为9~24 kW/m,孟加拉湾次之,为6~21 kW/m,南海相对最小,为2~10 kW/m;"海上丝路"2 kW/m以上能级频率ALO常年整体乐观;离岸WPD的变异系数小于近岸,北印度洋的变异系数小于南海;近37年(1979~2015年)期间,南海、阿拉伯海的WPD显著性递增,孟加拉湾无显著变化趋势。南海的ALO以0.1%/a^0.3%/a的趋势显著逐年递增,孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海显著逐年递减。"海上丝路"20 kW/m以上能级频率RLO显著性逐年递增。"海上丝路"波浪能资源气候特征的变异系数在各个季节均无显著的变化趋势。

一种新的线性回归模型及其应用示例

回归分析是统计分析中常用的方法之一。传统的回归模型不具备全域分析能力,而变量场之间的关系多采用SVD(Singular Value Decomposition)进行分析,与传统的回归分析有所脱节。更为广义的线性回归模型是传统线性回归模型的延拓,在标量情况下,该模型可转化为传统线性回归模型。该模型的基本特征包含乘法不可互易性、等价于传统线性回归(因子项为标量时)、可分析性、延拓性、降维特征及容错性等。该模型解决了传统的线性回归模型不具备全域分析能力及模型表达能力受限于模型维数的现实问题。本文采用了NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)降水、高度场、风场月平均资料及国家气候中心西太平洋副热带高压指数资料,利用该模型和传统回归方案进行对比分析,分析结果表明,该模型具有一定的实用参考价值。

台风活跃季月活动频次指数的构建及其应用

台风活动频次为每年汛期气象会商的重要内容之一,目前所使用的方案主要以数值模拟结果为主,且无法进行定量分析.本文采用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的月平均高度场资料,基于其偏差信息,利用同化模型中的代价函数构建了一些表征西北太平洋5-10月间月尺度台风活动频次的指数,并利用这些指数建立了台风活跃季月活动频次指数模型.分析结果表明,该指数序列与台风频次序列的相关系数达0.7以上,且指数模型能很好地表征台风活跃季月频次信息,可为台风月尺度活动频次预测提供参考.

“海上丝绸之路”的恶劣环境及应对——极值风速和波高

海洋环境不仅决定着工程及人员的安全,也决定着工程建设的效率和经济收益。由此,在海上丝路建设过程中,需要重视海洋环境对经济建设、岛礁建设和战略通道安全的影响,以达到更好更快地建设海上丝路。文章利用ERA-interim阵风资料、ERA-interim海浪再分析资料,采用Gumbel曲线法推算了海上丝路0.25°×0.25°逐网格点上的50年一遇极值风速、极值波高。另外,还计算了某边远海岛的1年一遇、2年一遇、10年一遇……1 000年一遇的极值风速、极值波高。期望可以为海上丝路建设提供参考。

西北太平洋海洋气象观测及统计产品数据集

海洋气象观测数据及统计产品是开展海洋气象预报、制作海洋气候背景以及科学研究、工程建设的基础和重要参考。目前业务上使用的海洋气象统计产品多为2010年以前的数据,且多为平均态的产品,有待补充和丰富。近年来,海洋气象观测数据量的极大增长为制作海洋气象统计产品提供了数据保证。为此,本研究针对西北太平洋海洋气象要素的特点,对ICOADS(International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set,国际海洋大气综合数据集)原始数据进行了主要海洋气象要素提取、质量控制和统计分析,生成了海洋气象观测数据和海洋气象要素统计产品数据。其中,海洋气象要素统计产品较以往的同类产品增加了低云云底高、最大风速、平均最大风速、6级以上风日数、7级以上风日数、8级以上风日数等较为实用的统计产品。

The long-term trend of the sea surface wind speed and the wave height (wind wave, swell, mixed wave) in global ocean during the last 44 a

Utilizing the 45 a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） reanalysis wave da- ta （ERA-40）, the long-term trend of the sea surface wind speed and （wind wave, swell, mixed wave） wave height in the global ocean at grid point 1.5°× 1.5° during the last 44 a is analyzed. It is discovered that a ma- jority of global ocean swell wave height exhibits a significant linear increasing trend （2-8 cm/decade）, the distribution of annual linear trend of the significant wave height （SWH） has good consistency with that of the swell wave height. The sea surface wind speed shows an annually linear increasing trend mainly con- centrated in the most waters of Southern Hemisphere westerlies, high latitude of the North Pacific, Indian Ocean north of 30°S, the waters near the western equatorial Pacific and low latitudes of the Atlantic waters, and the annually linear decreasing mainly in central and eastern equator of the Pacific, Juan. Fernandez Archipelago, the waters near South Georgia Island in the Atlantic waters. The linear variational distribution characteristic of the wind wave height is similar to that of the sea surface wind speed. Another find is that the swell is dominant in the mixed wave, the swell index in the central ocean is generally greater than that in the offshore, and the swell index in the eastern ocean coast is greater than that in the western ocean inshore, and in year-round hemisphere westerlies the swell index is relatively low.

An assessment of global ocean wave energy resources over the last 45 a

Against the background of the current world facing an energy crisis,and human beings puzzled by the problems of environment and resources,developing clean energy sources becomes the inevitable choice to deal with a climate change and an energy shortage.A global ocean wave energy resource was reanalyzed by using ERA-40 wave reanalysis data 1957–2002 from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF）.An effective significant wave height is defined in the development of wave energy resources（short as effective SWH）,and the total potential of wave energy is exploratively calculated.Synthetically considering a wave energy density,a wave energy level probability,the frequency of the effective SWH,the stability and long-term trend of wave energy density,a swell index and a wave energy storage,global ocean wave energy resources were reanalyzed and regionalized,providing reference to the development of wave energy resources such as wave power plant location,seawater desalination,heating,pumping.

The seasonal variations in the significant wave height and sea surface wind speed of the China's seas

Long-term variations in a sea surface wind speed （WS） and a significant wave height （SWH） are associated with the global climate change, the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, and an ocean resource exploitation, and other activities. The seasonal characteristics of the long-term trends in China＇s seas WS and SWH are determined based on 24 a （1988-2011） cross-calibrated, multi-platform （CCMP） wind data and 24 a hindcast wave data obtained with the WAVEWATCH-III （WW3） wave model forced by CCMP wind data. The results show the following. （1） For the past 24 a, the China＇s WS and SWH exhibit a significant increasing trend as a whole, of 3.38 cm/（s.a） in the WS, 1.3 cm/a in the SWH. （2） As a whole, the increasing trend of the China＇s seas WS and SWH is strongest in March-April-May （MAM） and December-January-February （DJF）, followed by June-July-August （JJA）, and smallest in September-October-November （SON）. （3） The areal extent of significant increases in the WS was largest in MAM, while the area decreased in JJA and DJF; the smallest area was apparent in SON. In contrast to the WS, almost all of China＇s seas exhibited a significant increase in SWH in MAM and DJF; the range was slightly smaller in JJA and SON. The WS and SWH in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, the Tsushima Strait, the Taiwan Strait, the northern South China Sea, the Beibu Gull and the Gulf of Thailand exhibited a significant increase in all seasons. （4） The variations in China＇s seas SWH and WS depended on the season. The areas with a strong increase usually appeared in DJF.

关于ENSO事件监测指数的改进方案

为了改进气象行业标准(国标)推荐的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件监测指数所涉及的异常数据带有趋势、间隔10年的修订所可能引入的额外周期、指数一致性及气候标准值变动所引起的事件属性、强弱的变化等系列问题,本文基于一个可以消除一阶趋势并舍弃气候标准值的异常计算方法用以构建相关指数。结果表明,该方案所计算的指数与原指数具有较好的一致性,在有显著趋势的序列中,本方案较气象行业标准推荐方案算法简单,趋势消解显著,在应对气候变暖等系列问题中,本方案具有推广价值。

Diffusion Characteristics of Swells in the North Indian Ocean

Research on the diffusion characteristics of swells contributes positively to wave energy forecasting, swell monitoring, and early warning. In this work, the South Indian Ocean westerly index(SIWI) and Indian Ocean swell diffusion effect index(IOSDEI) are defined on the basis of the 45-year(September 1957–August 2002) ERA-40 wave reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to analyze the impact of the South Indian Ocean westerlies on the propagation of swell acreage. The following results were obtained: 1) The South Indian Ocean swell mainly propagates from southwest to northeast. The swell also spreads to the Arabian Sea upon reaching low-latitude waters. The 2.0-meter contour of the swell can reach northward to Sri Lankan waters. 2) The size of the IOSDEI is determined by the SIWI strength. The IOSDEI requires approximately 2–3.5 days to fully respond to the SIWI. The correlations between SIWI and IOSDEI show obvious seasonal differences, with the highest correlations found in December–January–February(DJF) and the lowest correlations observed in June–July–August(JJA). 3) The SIWI and IOSDEI have a common period of approximately 1 week in JJA and DJF. The SIWI leads by approximately 2–3 days in this common period.

Decadal Variability of Global Ocean Significant Wave Height

This paper presents the long-term climate changes of significant wave height(Hs) in 1958–2001 over the entire global ocean using the 45-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Reanalysis(ERA-40) wave data. The linear trends in Hs and regional and seasonal differences of the linear trends for Hs were calculated. Results show that the Hs exhibits a significant increasing trend of about 4.6 cm decade-1 in the global ocean as a whole over the last 44 years. The Hs changes slowly during the periods 1958–1974 and 1980–1991, while it increases consistently during the periods 1975–1980 and 1995–1998. The Hs reaches its lowest magnitude in 1975, with annual average wave height about 2 m. In 1992, the Hs has the maximum value of nearly 2.60 m. The Hs in most ocean waters has a significant increasing trend of 2–14 cm decade-1 over the last 44 years. The linear trend exhibits great regional differences. Areas with strong increasing trend of Hs are mainly distributed in the westerlies of the southern Hemisphere and the northern Hemisphere. Only some small areas show obvious decreasing in Hs. The long-term trend of Hs in DJF(December, January, February) and MAM(March, April, May) is much more stronger than that in JJA(June, July, August) and SON(September, October, November). The linear trends of the Hs in different areas are different in different seasons; for instance, the increasing trend of Hs in the westerlies of the Pacific Ocean mainly appears in MAM and DJF.

A seasonal grade division of the global offshore wind energy resource

Under the background of energy crisis, the development of renewable energy will significantly alleviate the energy and environmental crisis. On the basis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF）interim reanalysis（ERA-interim） wind data, the annual and seasonal grade divisions of the global offshore wind energy are investigated. The results show that the annual mean offshore wind energy has great potential. The wind energy over the westerly oceans of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is graded as Class 7（the highest）, whereas that over most of the mid-low latitude oceans are higher than Class 4. The wind energy over the Arctic Ocean（Class 4） is more optimistic than the traditional evaluations. Seasonally, the westerly oceans of the Northern Hemisphere with a Class 7 wind energy are found to be largest in January, followed by April and October, and smallest in July. The area of the Class 7 wind energy over the westerly oceans of the Southern Hemisphere are found to be largest in July and slightly smaller in the other months. In July, the wind energy over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is graded as Class 7, which is obviously richer than that in other months. It is shown that in this data set in April and October, the majority of the northern Indian Ocean are regions of indigent wind energy resource.

波浪能传播规律的数值分析

为研究掌握波浪能传播规律,通过构建波浪能由离岸向近岸传播的简易模型,利用WW3(WAVEWATCHⅢ)模式对波浪能传播规律展开数值模拟分析。结果表明:波浪能并非水深越深能量越大,且风向对离岸波浪能大小影响较大,对近岸影响较小;对福建海岸,若盛行风向与海岸近乎垂直,波力电站适宜建在离岸距离较近的水深为20 m左右海域,相关结论对波浪能的开发利用具有一定实用价值。

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Wave Energy Resources in Sri Lankan Waters over the Past 30 Years

For the survival and development of‘One Belt,One Road’,the present work aimed to evaluate the current situation of wave energy resources around Sri Lankan(SL)waters.Thirty-year ERA-Interim wind data were used to drive the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH-III,and the seasonal and regional distribution characteristics of wave energy resources in SL waters were analyzed.Furthermore,the optimal season and region that contribute most to wave power in the study area were determined.On the basis of 30-year hindcast wave data,the significant wave height and wave power density,the occurrence of available SWH and rich WPD,the effective storage of wave energy,and the contribution and stability of wave energy were also analyzed.Results show that extremely optimistic wave energy resources are found at the western,southern,and southeastern waters of SL;moreover,the period of June,July,August(JJA)has great advantages in terms of the overall level of WPD,wave energy effective storage,and the contribution rate of wave energy.In addition,the wave energy during JJA is more stable than that of other periods and thus is benefi-cial to the transformation and development of wave energy.This study also provides important guiding value for disaster prevention and reduction,coastal zone management,and coastal development in the crucial region of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.

Case Study of a Short-Term Wave Energy Forecasting Scheme:North Indian Ocean

Short-term forecasts of wave energy play a key role in the daily operation,maintenance planning,and electrical grid operation of power farms.In this study,we propose a short-term wave energy forecast scheme and use the North Indian Ocean(NIO)as a case study.Compared with the traditional forecast scheme,our proposed scheme considers more forecast elements.In addition to the traditional short-term forecast factors related to wave energy(wave power,significant wave height(SWH),wave period),our scheme emphasizes the forecast of a series of key factors that are closely related to the effectiveness of the energy output,capture efficiency,and conversion efficiency.These factors include the available rate,total storage,effective storage,co-occurrence of wave power-wave direction,co-occurrence of the SWH-wave period,and the wave energy at key points.In the regional nesting of nu-merical simulations of wave energy in the NIO,the selection of the southern boundary is found to have a significant impact on the simulation precision,especially during periods of strong swell processes of the South Indian Ocean(SIO)westerly.During tropical cyclone‘VARDAH’in the NIO,as compared with the simulation precision obtained with no expansion of the southern boundary(scheme-1),when the southern boundary is extended to the tropical SIO(scheme-2),the improvement in simulation precision is significant,with an obvious increase in the correlation coefficient and decrease in error.In addition,the improvement is much more significant when the southern boundary extends to the SIO westerly(scheme-3).In the case of strong swell processes generated by the SIO westerly,the improvement obtained by scheme-3 is even more significant.

Trends in Significant Wave Height and Surface Wind Speed in the China Seas Between 1988 and 2011

Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed(WS) and significant wave height(SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988–2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform(CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III(WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988–2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s^(-1)yr^(-1) and 1.52 cm yr^(-1), respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Ni?o and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.