This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is str...This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–2008.The surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC periods.The interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c Oscillation.Our?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41790474]the National Program on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction[grant numbers GASI-IPOVAI-06 and GASI-IPOVAI-03]the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China [grant number 2015BAC03B07]
文摘This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–2008.The surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC periods.The interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c Oscillation.Our?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.
