Taking the source region of the Yellow River as a study area and based on the data from Madoi Meteorological Station and Huangheyan Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2005, this paper analyses the changing ...Taking the source region of the Yellow River as a study area and based on the data from Madoi Meteorological Station and Huangheyan Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2005, this paper analyses the changing trends of surface water resources, climate and frozen ground and reveals their causes. Results show that there exist frequent fluctuations from high to low water flow in the 51-year period. In general, the discharge has shown a de- clining trend in the 51 years especially since the 1990s. The annual distribution shows one peak which, year on year is getting smaller. （1） Precipitation has a significant and sustained influence on discharge. （2） A sharp rise of temperature resulted in the increase of evaporation and the decrease of discharge, which has a greater effect than on ice-snow melting. （3） Frozen ground tends to be degraded markedly. There is a significant positive correlation be- tween the permafrost thickness and the discharge. （4） Evaporation rates are significantly increasing, leading to the decrease of discharge. 70% of the discharge reduction resulted from climate change, and the remaining 30% may have been caused by human activities.展开更多
Based on tree-ring samples collected from Zaduo area in southern Qinghai Province, a 646-year ring-width series was established. Using response function, correlation function and partial correlation analysis we found ...Based on tree-ring samples collected from Zaduo area in southern Qinghai Province, a 646-year ring-width series was established. Using response function, correlation function and partial correlation analysis we found that the ring-width series is sensitive most to May and June mean maximum air temperature at Zaduo meteorological stations and the correlation is significantly negative. Therefore, May-June mean maximum air temperature in Zaduo area since 1360 is reconstructed using this ring-width series. The regression equation was cross-validated in the calibration period of 1961-2005. The calibration equation can explain 59.8% of the total variance. Since high temperature could reinforce evapotranspiration and result in water stress, the high values are more reliable than the low values in the reconstructed series. By further analyzing upon the reconstructed series, it shows that on the in-ter-annual scale there are 6 periods with higher temperature: 1438-1455, 1572-1612, 1684-1700, 1730-1754, 1812-1829 and 1853-1886; while there are 5 periods with lower temperature: 1547-1571, 1701-1729, 1755-1777, 1830-1852 and 1887-1910. There is no significant rising of temperature in recent 50 years. By comparison with the rings-width series nearby which are also sensitive to the mean maximum air temperature and the mean maximum temperature reconstruction by ring-widths, it is found that the variation of inter-annual scale is fairly common in the region.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40405022Special Fund for Social Public Welfare of Research Institutes, No.2005DIB3J109
文摘Taking the source region of the Yellow River as a study area and based on the data from Madoi Meteorological Station and Huangheyan Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2005, this paper analyses the changing trends of surface water resources, climate and frozen ground and reveals their causes. Results show that there exist frequent fluctuations from high to low water flow in the 51-year period. In general, the discharge has shown a de- clining trend in the 51 years especially since the 1990s. The annual distribution shows one peak which, year on year is getting smaller. （1） Precipitation has a significant and sustained influence on discharge. （2） A sharp rise of temperature resulted in the increase of evaporation and the decrease of discharge, which has a greater effect than on ice-snow melting. （3） Frozen ground tends to be degraded markedly. There is a significant positive correlation be- tween the permafrost thickness and the discharge. （4） Evaporation rates are significantly increasing, leading to the decrease of discharge. 70% of the discharge reduction resulted from climate change, and the remaining 30% may have been caused by human activities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40599424)Sichuan Meteorological Bureau (08-02) and Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration (BROP200 810)
文摘Based on tree-ring samples collected from Zaduo area in southern Qinghai Province, a 646-year ring-width series was established. Using response function, correlation function and partial correlation analysis we found that the ring-width series is sensitive most to May and June mean maximum air temperature at Zaduo meteorological stations and the correlation is significantly negative. Therefore, May-June mean maximum air temperature in Zaduo area since 1360 is reconstructed using this ring-width series. The regression equation was cross-validated in the calibration period of 1961-2005. The calibration equation can explain 59.8% of the total variance. Since high temperature could reinforce evapotranspiration and result in water stress, the high values are more reliable than the low values in the reconstructed series. By further analyzing upon the reconstructed series, it shows that on the in-ter-annual scale there are 6 periods with higher temperature: 1438-1455, 1572-1612, 1684-1700, 1730-1754, 1812-1829 and 1853-1886; while there are 5 periods with lower temperature: 1547-1571, 1701-1729, 1755-1777, 1830-1852 and 1887-1910. There is no significant rising of temperature in recent 50 years. By comparison with the rings-width series nearby which are also sensitive to the mean maximum air temperature and the mean maximum temperature reconstruction by ring-widths, it is found that the variation of inter-annual scale is fairly common in the region.
