Observing the air-sea turbulent heat flux on the trajectory of tropical storm Danas

Tropical cyclones constitute a major risk for coastal communities.To assess their damage potential,accurate predictions of their intensification are needed,which requires a detailed understanding of the evolution of turbulent heat flux(THF).By combining multiple buoy observations along the south north storm track,we investigated the THF anomalies associated with tropical storm Danas(2019)in the East China Sea(ECS)during its complete life cycle from the intensification stage to the mature stage and finally to its dissipation on land.The storm passage is characterized by strong winds of 10-20 m/s and a sea level pressure below 1000 hPa,resulting in a substantial enhancement of THF.Latent heat(LH)fluxes are most strongly affected by wind speed,with a gradually increasing contribution of humidity along the trajectory.The relative contributions of wind speed and temperature anomalies to sensible heat(SH)depend on the stability of the boundary layer.Under stable conditions,SH variations are driven by wind speed,while under near-neutral conditions,SH variations are driven by temperature.A comparison of the observed THF and associated variables with outputs from the ERA 5 and MERRA 2 reanalysis products reveals that the reanalysis products can reproduce the basic evolution and composition of the observed THF.However,under extreme weather conditions,temperature and humidity variations are poorly captured by ERA 5 and MERRA 2,leading to large LH and SH errors.The differences in the observed and reproduced LH and SH during the passage of Danas amount to 26.1 and 6.6 W/m 2 for ERA 5,respectively,and to 39.4 and 12.5 W/m 2 for MERRA 2,respectively.These results demonstrate the need to improve the representation of tropical cyclones in reanalysis products to better predict their intensification process and reduce their damage.

Simulated Indonesian Throughflow in Makassar Strait across the SODA3 products

The Indonesian Throughflow(ITF), which connects the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, plays important roles in the inter-ocean water exchange and regional or even global climate variability. The Makassar Strait is the main inflow passage of the ITF, carrying about 77% of the total ITF volume transport. In this study, we analyze the simulated ITF in the Makassar Strait in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3(SODA3) datasets. A total of nine ensemble members of the SODA3 datasets, of which are driven by different surface forcings and bulk formulas, and with or without data assimilation, are used in this study. The annual mean water transports(i.e.,volume, heat and freshwater) are related to the combination of surface forcing and bulk formula, as well as whether data assimilation is employed. The phases of the seasonal and interannual variability in water transports cross the Makassar Strait, are basically consistent with each other among the SODA3 ensemble members. The interannual variability in Makassar Strait volume and heat transports are significantly correlated with El Ni?oSouthern Oscillation(ENSO) at time lags of-6 to 7 months. There is no statistically significant correlation between the freshwater transport and the ENSO. The Makassar Strait water transports are not significantly correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), which may attribute to model deficiency in simulating the propagation of semiannual Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean to the Makassar Strait.

An overview of 10-year observation of the South China Sea branch of the Pacific to Indian Ocean throughflow at the Karimata Strait

Besides the Indonesian throughflow(ITF), the South China Sea throughflow(SCSTF) also contributes to the water transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. However, this South China Sea(SCS) branch at the Karimata Strait is poorly observed until 2007, even though its importance has been suggested by numerical studies for decades. In this paper, we review the nearly 10-year field measurement in the Karimata Strait by the execution of the projects of "SCS-Indonesian Seas Transport/Exchange(SITE) and Impacts on Seasonal Fish Migration" and "The Transport, Internal Waves and Mixing in the Indonesian Throughflow regions(TIMIT) and Impacts on Marine Ecosystem", which extend the observations from the western Indonesian seas to the east to include the main channels of the ITF, is introduced. Some major achievements from these projects are summarized.

Seasonal variation of water transport through the Karimata Strait

Four trawl-resistant bottom mounts, with acoustic Doppler current profilers(ADCPs) embedded, were deployed in the Karimata Strait from November 2008 to June 2015 as part of the South China Sea-Indonesian Seas Transport/Exchange and Impact on Seasonal Fish Migration(SITE) Program, to estimate the volume and property transport between the South China Sea and Indonesian seas via the strait. The observed current data reveal that the volume transport through the Karimata Strait exhibits significant seasonal variation. The winteraveraged(from December to February) transport is –1.99 Sv(1 Sv=1×10~6 m^3/s), while in the boreal summer(from June to August), the average transport is 0.69 Sv. Moreover, the average transport from January 2009 to December2014 is –0.74 Sv(the positive/negative value indicates northward/southward transport). May and September are the transition period. In May, the currents in the Karimata Strait turn northward, consistent with the local monsoon. In September, the southeasterly trade wind is still present over the strait, driving surface water northward, whereas the bottom flow reverses direction, possibly because of the pressure gradient across the strait from north to south.

Development of a fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting model for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas

A 72-h fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting system was developed for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. The forecasting model domain covers from from 15°S to 45°N in latitude and 99°E to135°E in longitude including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indonesian seas. To get precise initial conditions for the coupled forecasting model, the forecasting system conducts a 24-h hindcast simulation with data assimilation before forecasting. The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter(EAKF) data assimilation method was adopted for the wave model MASNUM with assimilating Jason-2 significant wave height(SWH) data. The EAKF data assimilation method was also introduced to the ROMS model with assimilating sea surface temperature(SST), mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT) and Argo profiles data. To improve simulation of the structure of temperature and salinity, the vertical mixing scheme of the ocean model was improved by considering the surface wave induced vertical mixing and internal wave induced vertical mixing. The wave and current models were integrated from January 2014 to October 2015 driven by the ECMWF reanalysis 6 hourly mean dataset with data assimilation. Then the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean forecasting system was carried out 14 months operational running since November 2015. The forecasting outputs include atmospheric forecast products, wave forecast products and ocean forecast products. A series of observation data are used to evaluate the coupled forecasting results, including the wind, SHW, ocean temperature and velocity.The forecasting results are in good agreement with observation data. The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the coupled forecasting system performs stably and predict relatively accurate, which can support the shipping safety, the fisheries and the oil exploitation.

Vertical velocity and transport in the South China Sea

Deep water in the South China Sea is renewed by the cold and dense Luzon Strait overflow.However,from where and how the deep water upwells is poorly understood yet.Based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis data,vertical velocity is derived to answer these questions.Domain-integrated vertical velocity is of two maxima,one in the shallow water and the other at depth,and separated by a layer of minimum at the bottom of the thermocline.Further analysis shows that this two-segmented vertical transport is attributed to the vertical compensation of subsurface water to the excessive outflow of shallow water and upward push of the dense Luzon Strait overflow,respectively.In the abyssal basin,the vertical transport increases upward from zero at the depth of 3500–4000 m and reaches a maximum of 1.5×10^(6) m^(3)/s at about 1500 m.Deep water upwells mainly from the northeastern and southwestern ends of the abyssal basin and off the continental slopes.To explain the upward velocity arising from slope breaks,a possible mechanism is proposed that an onshore velocity component can be derived from the deep western boundary current above steep slopes under bottom friction.

Characteristics and temporal variations of near-bottom currents near the Dongsha Island in the northern South China Sea

Near-bottom currents play important roles in the formation and dynamics of deep-water sedimentary systems.This study examined the characteristics and temporal variations of near-bottom currents, especially the tidal components, based on two campaigns(2014 and 2016) of in situ observations conducted southeast of the Dongsha Island in the South China Sea. Results demonstrated near-bottom currents are dominated by tidal currents, the variance of which could account for ～70% of the total current variance. Diurnal tidal currents were found stronger than semidiurnal currents for both barotropic and baroclinic components. The diurnal tidal currents were found polarized with predominantly clockwise-rotating constituents, whereas the clockwise and counterclockwise constituents were found comparable for semidiurnal tidal currents. It was established that diurnal tidal currents could induce strong current shear. Baroclinic tidal currents showed pronounced seasonal variation with large magnitude in winter and summer and weak magnitude in spring and autumn in 2014. The coherent components accounted for ～65% and ～50% of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal current variances,respectively. The proportions of the coherent and incoherent components changed little in different seasons. In addition to tidal currents, it was determined that the passing of mesoscale eddies could induce strong nearbottom currents that have considerable influence on the deep circulation.

A study of intra-seasonal variations in the subsurface water temperatures in the South China Sea

Through analysis of the results of a verified high-fidelity numerical model, the intra-seasonal variations(ISVs) in the depth of the 22°C isotherm(D22) in the South China Sea(SCS) basin are investigated. The results show that the ISVs in the D22 exhibit distinct seasonality in the SCS. The ISVs in the D22 are quite significant, especially within a band along the northwestern boundary of the basin and at the southern end of the basin during boreal winter. In these areas, the ratio of the standard deviations(STDs) of intra-seasonal band to the STDs of total data could exceed 0.6. Although the ISVs in the D22 are detectable in the area affected by the Vietnam Offshore Current during boreal summer and autumn, these variations are sometimes overwhelmed by oscillations with other frequencies. An analysis of the causes of the ISVs in the D22 in the SCS indicates that sea surface fluxes and wind stirring are not the dominant external driving mechanisms of the phenomena described above. The ISVs in the D22 are thought to be induced mainly by the thermodynamic adjustment of the ocean itself and the associated instabilities. The energy of the northern and southern bands that display strong ISVs in the D22 may be derived from eddy kinetic energy, rather than eddy available potential energy. The diversity of the propagation of the ISVs in the D22 is very conspicuous within these two bands.

Exploring the Arctic Ocean under Arctic amplification

Rate of surface air temperature increase in the Arctic is roughly twice that of the global average,and this phenomenon is referred to as“Arctic Amplification”(Serreze and Barry,2011).The Arctic sea ice season(October to September)of 2017–2018 is the second warmest in Arctic since 1900(Overland et al.,2018);2014–2018 are the five warmest years in the Arctic since 1900(Overland et al.,2018).Mean temperatures in Finland,Norway,and Svalbard in May 2018 are the highest in the instrumental record since the early 1900s(NOAA,2018),and the extensive warm spells over Scandinavia led to extensive forest fires(Overland et al.,2018).Arctic sea ice extent has decreased considerably mostly as a result of atmospheric and ocean warming.Sea ice decline is present in all months,and is the highest in September with a rate of 12.8%per decade since 1979(Fetterer et al.,2017).The oldest ice,defined as ice that is more than 4 years old,is also normally the thickest ice.The percentage of the oldest ice in the March has reduced by 95%between 1985 and 2018(Perovich et al.,2018).Thus,compared with 1979–2018 climatology,the Arctic Ocean in the ice season of 2017–2018 was dominated by much younger and thinner ice(Perovich et al.,2018).The oldest and thickest sea ice of the Arctic Ocean generally remains in the region between the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,Greenland,and the North Pole(Lindsay and Schweiger,2015).Thus,the unprecedented polynyas that appeared in this region during winter 2017–2018 would promote further reduction of multi-year ice(Moore et al.,2018).

The Island Rule with lateral and bottom friction

The Island Rule, derived from the Sverdrup theory, is widely used to estimate and analyze water transport through a strait. Previous studies presented single-or multi-island rules with either lateral or bottom friction. In this paper,an analytical model of wind-driven circulation is assumed based on linear dynamics. Considering both lateral and bottom friction, the analytic solutions of the transport streamfunction around the islands are derived and the volume transport through the channel is presented. The results are similar to those of Wajsowicz, but the frictional constants represent different values. The analytic solution shows that the relationship between the lateral frictional and bottom frictional dissipation is complex in terms of the frictional constants. To understand the interaction between the two friction types, lateral and bottom friction values were randomly chosen on a barotropic beta plane. The result shows an approximately linear relationship between the lateral and bottom friction in consisting of the combined frictional constants. We studied the effect of the channel width on the transport through the channel. The results show that the friction enhances the flow under some widths, which is similar to the flow behavior when only the lateral friction is considered. We also compared the transport through the channel at different depths and founded that the deeper the water, the smaller the transport reduction ratio when the horizontal eddy viscosity coefficient and the bottom drag coefficient remained constants. To further present the combined role of lateral frictional and bottom frictional dissipation, we compared our model with the model of Wajsowicz for two islands, where only the lateral or bottom friction were considered, with different channel widths. The results showed that the effect of the lateral friction is greater than the bottom friction when the channel is narrow, especially in the Munk boundary layer thickness. When the channel is much wider than the Munk boundary layer thickness, the role of the bottom friction is greater than that of the lateral friction. The model was applied to the Indonesian throughflow and yielded a reduction of approximately 20% in the transport.

Variability of the deep South China Sea circulation derived from HYCOM reanalysis data

This study aims to investigate variability of the deep South China Sea(SCS)circulation using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)global reanalysis product.The results reveal that annual cycle is a dominant component in the deep SCS circulation.Meanwhile,the boundary circulation strength is the weakest in January and peaks between June and September.The eastern and southern boundary currents strengthen/weaken one to three months earlier than that in the western and northern boundaries.Vector Empirical Orthogonal Functions(VEOF)analysis results reveal that semiannual and intraseasonal fluctuations are significant components,of which the spatial patterns are mainly confined in the northern and western boundary areas as well as the southwestern sub-basin.Wavelet analysis results show the strength of significant fluctuation varies year to year.Trend analysis results indicate a decadal weakening in the deep SCS circulation.An anomalous anticyclonic circulation,50–70 km apart from the slope break,tends to weaken the cyclonic boundary circulation in the western and northern boundaries as well as the southwestern sub-basin.This trend is similar to the observed decadal weakening in the North Atlantic deep circulation.Thus,the findings of this study reveal that the variation of the deep SCS circulation has a remarkable response to the climate change.The mechanisms responsible for the variation are worth pursuing if more observations are available.

Objective array design for three-dimensional temperature and salinity observation:Application to the South China Sea

In this study,a moored array optimization tool(MAOT)was developed and applied to the South China Sea(SCS)with a focus on three-dimensional temperature and salinity observations.Application of the MAOT involves two steps:(1)deriving a set of optimal arrays that are independent of each other for different variables at different depths based on an empirical orthogonal function method,and(2)consolidating these arrays using a K-center clustering algorithm.Compared with the assumed initial array consisting of 17 mooring sites located on a 3°×3°horizontal grid,the consolidated array improved the observing ability for three-dimensional temperature and salinity in the SCS with optimization efficiencies of 19.03%and 21.38%,respectively.Experiments with an increased number of moored sites showed that the most cost-effective option is a total of 20 moorings,improving the observing ability with optimization efficiencies up to 26.54%for temperature and 27.25%for salinity.The design of an objective array relies on the ocean phenomenon of interest and its spatial and temporal scales.In this study,we focus on basin-scale variations in temperature and salinity in the SCS,and thus our consolidated array may not well resolve mesoscale processes.The MAOT can be extended to include other variables and multi-scale variability and can be applied to other regions.