为了提高日极大风风速的预报能力,特别是8级以上风力的预报,本文以欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECWMF)模式输出的过去3 h阵风风速预报作为输入因子,同时针对ECWMF模式过去3 h阵风风速预...为了提高日极大风风速的预报能力,特别是8级以上风力的预报,本文以欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECWMF)模式输出的过去3 h阵风风速预报作为输入因子,同时针对ECWMF模式过去3 h阵风风速预报存在的小量级风预报偏大、大量级风预报偏小的预报特征,利用近5年地面观测实况以及ECWMF模式过去3 h阵风资料,构建基于Tabnet的日极大风分级订正预报模型。其中,模型的输入设计包含了前期实况、站点的地理信息、ECWMF模式的预报场及其前期预报误差项。该模型在1年半独立检验样本的估测结果中,其预报模型的平均绝对误差相对ECWMF模式插值降低了45.2%,相应的均方根误差也减少了25.7%。进一步地,在1~5级和8~9级以上风力等级的预报上,该预报模型的预报准确率较利用ECWMF模式预报场插值得到的预报方法均有明显提高,表明该预报方法的可行性。展开更多
American academia has three viewpoints regarding American policy in American in Central Asia in the post-Afghanistan era, or three choices facing America: a comprehensive entry, limited intervention or phasing out. Of...American academia has three viewpoints regarding American policy in American in Central Asia in the post-Afghanistan era, or three choices facing America: a comprehensive entry, limited intervention or phasing out. Of these a these three options, the limited intervention is the most possible one from the perspective of strategic priorities, resources allocations as well as realistic possibility. This involves the breadth and depth of the intervention.展开更多
What happens after 2014 in Afghanistan is generally viewed as a serious challenge to the international community.Although there are high hopes,many countries feel uneasy about Afghanistan's prospects.All those cou...What happens after 2014 in Afghanistan is generally viewed as a serious challenge to the international community.Although there are high hopes,many countries feel uneasy about Afghanistan's prospects.All those countries involved with Afghanistan have been working hard to cope with this challenge,such as the United States,countries from the EU,Russia,China,Pakistan,India,Iran,and Central Asian countries.The current focus is on helping the Afghan government grow stronger and more capable including into the long term,building up the army and police forces,conducting technical and management personnel training,and carrying out economic development,anti-terrorism and anti-narcotics projects etc.展开更多
The Greater Eurasian Partnership is a newly proposed initiative. As of late, the initiative has been referred to by Russian President Vladimir Putin several times, and thus received a high level of worldwide attention...The Greater Eurasian Partnership is a newly proposed initiative. As of late, the initiative has been referred to by Russian President Vladimir Putin several times, and thus received a high level of worldwide attention） Regarding China as an important target, the Greater Eurasian Partnership also covers Chinas neighboring countries, overlapping geographically with Chinas Belt and Road Initiative.展开更多
The United States is supposed to complete its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan before the end of 2014（mainly the combat forces, not necessarily all its forces）. With the time drawing near, a range of issues reg...The United States is supposed to complete its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan before the end of 2014（mainly the combat forces, not necessarily all its forces）. With the time drawing near, a range of issues regarding the ties between the US and Central Asia loom. Just as the Afghanistan War has greatly changed American policy towards Central Asia, its ending will equally alter America＇s Central Asia policy.展开更多
The unbalanced development between China and Russia is considered the biggest challenge for the development of the two country’s future bilateral ties. Among Russian academics, skepticism concerning the bright prospe...The unbalanced development between China and Russia is considered the biggest challenge for the development of the two country’s future bilateral ties. Among Russian academics, skepticism concerning the bright prospects for the Sino-Russian relationship has always existed and it has always been popular to be skeptical展开更多
When formulating its Central Asia diplomacy,China should take four basic factors into consideration; or China should formulate it on the common basis of the following four basic factors:1, China's overall diplomat...When formulating its Central Asia diplomacy,China should take four basic factors into consideration; or China should formulate it on the common basis of the following four basic factors:1, China's overall diplomatic thinking and principles.2,展开更多
文摘为了提高日极大风风速的预报能力,特别是8级以上风力的预报,本文以欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECWMF)模式输出的过去3 h阵风风速预报作为输入因子,同时针对ECWMF模式过去3 h阵风风速预报存在的小量级风预报偏大、大量级风预报偏小的预报特征,利用近5年地面观测实况以及ECWMF模式过去3 h阵风资料,构建基于Tabnet的日极大风分级订正预报模型。其中,模型的输入设计包含了前期实况、站点的地理信息、ECWMF模式的预报场及其前期预报误差项。该模型在1年半独立检验样本的估测结果中,其预报模型的平均绝对误差相对ECWMF模式插值降低了45.2%,相应的均方根误差也减少了25.7%。进一步地,在1~5级和8~9级以上风力等级的预报上,该预报模型的预报准确率较利用ECWMF模式预报场插值得到的预报方法均有明显提高,表明该预报方法的可行性。
文摘American academia has three viewpoints regarding American policy in American in Central Asia in the post-Afghanistan era, or three choices facing America: a comprehensive entry, limited intervention or phasing out. Of these a these three options, the limited intervention is the most possible one from the perspective of strategic priorities, resources allocations as well as realistic possibility. This involves the breadth and depth of the intervention.
文摘What happens after 2014 in Afghanistan is generally viewed as a serious challenge to the international community.Although there are high hopes,many countries feel uneasy about Afghanistan's prospects.All those countries involved with Afghanistan have been working hard to cope with this challenge,such as the United States,countries from the EU,Russia,China,Pakistan,India,Iran,and Central Asian countries.The current focus is on helping the Afghan government grow stronger and more capable including into the long term,building up the army and police forces,conducting technical and management personnel training,and carrying out economic development,anti-terrorism and anti-narcotics projects etc.
文摘The Greater Eurasian Partnership is a newly proposed initiative. As of late, the initiative has been referred to by Russian President Vladimir Putin several times, and thus received a high level of worldwide attention） Regarding China as an important target, the Greater Eurasian Partnership also covers Chinas neighboring countries, overlapping geographically with Chinas Belt and Road Initiative.
文摘The United States is supposed to complete its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan before the end of 2014（mainly the combat forces, not necessarily all its forces）. With the time drawing near, a range of issues regarding the ties between the US and Central Asia loom. Just as the Afghanistan War has greatly changed American policy towards Central Asia, its ending will equally alter America＇s Central Asia policy.
文摘The unbalanced development between China and Russia is considered the biggest challenge for the development of the two country’s future bilateral ties. Among Russian academics, skepticism concerning the bright prospects for the Sino-Russian relationship has always existed and it has always been popular to be skeptical
文摘When formulating its Central Asia diplomacy,China should take four basic factors into consideration; or China should formulate it on the common basis of the following four basic factors:1, China's overall diplomatic thinking and principles.2,
