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On Multi-Timescale Variability of Temperature in China in Modulated Annual Cycle Reference Frame 被引量:16
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作者 钱诚 zhaohua wu +1 位作者 符淙斌 周天军 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第5期1169-1182,共14页
The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely us... The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature (SAT) in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability (ILV) than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions (annual or summer or winter mean) of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed. 展开更多
关键词 modulated annual cycle the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition climate anomaly climate normal variability of surface air temperature in China
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以变化的年循环为杠杆突破季节预测极限 被引量:1
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作者 马洁茹 孙杰 +4 位作者 吴召华 黄建平 许小峰 邓毅 蔡鸣 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第1期105-116,共12页
该文以变化的年循环为杠杆尝试突破季节预测的极限,即从变化的年循环角度开发和验证一种全新的季节预测的方法,探索和推动季节预测的极限边界.该方案具有超越当前现有的动力和统计模型的预测能力,能够至少提前6个月连续且无缝隙地预测... 该文以变化的年循环为杠杆尝试突破季节预测的极限,即从变化的年循环角度开发和验证一种全新的季节预测的方法,探索和推动季节预测的极限边界.该方案具有超越当前现有的动力和统计模型的预测能力,能够至少提前6个月连续且无缝隙地预测多省洪涝和干旱水文极端事件.研究结果表明,新方案能以更早的提前期无缝且连续地预测气候变量异常时空演变,有助于将季节预测的边界推向新的范式,为研究界和业务预报中短期气候预测瓶颈问题的突破提供了重要的科学依据. 展开更多
关键词 季节预测 统计模型 短期气候预测 杠杆 提前期 业务预报 预测能力 极限
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Global stability analysis of fractional-order gene regulatory networks with time delay 被引量:1
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作者 zhaohua wu Zhiining Wang Tiejun Zhou 《International Journal of Biomathematics》 SCIE 2019年第6期99-118,共20页
Fractional-order gene regulatory networks with time delay(DFCIRNs)have proven that they are more suitable to model gene regulation mechanism than integer-order.In this paper,a novel DFGRN is proposed.The existence and... Fractional-order gene regulatory networks with time delay(DFCIRNs)have proven that they are more suitable to model gene regulation mechanism than integer-order.In this paper,a novel DFGRN is proposed.The existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium point for the DFGRN are proved under certain conditions.On this basis,the conditions on the global asymptotic stability are established by using the Lyapunov method and comparison theorem for the DFGRN,and the stability conditions are dependent on the fractional-order q.Finally,numerical simulations show that the obtained results arc reasonable. 展开更多
关键词 FRACTIONAL-ORDER GENE REGULATORY networks time DELAY global stability.
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Permanence and almost periodic solution of a predator-prey discrete system with Holling IV functional response 被引量:2
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作者 Tiejun Zhou Xiaolan Zhang +1 位作者 Meihong Xiang zhaohua wu 《International Journal of Biomathematics》 2016年第3期39-64,共26页
A predator-prey discrete-time model with non-monotone functional response and den- sity dependence is investigated in this paper. By using the comparison theorem of the difference equation, some sufficient conditions ... A predator-prey discrete-time model with non-monotone functional response and den- sity dependence is investigated in this paper. By using the comparison theorem of the difference equation, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the permanence of the system with variable coefficients. At the same time, a set of sufficient conditions about permanent of the system with almost periodic coefficients is also set up, which utilizes almost periodic characteristics of the system. Furthermore, the criteria which guarantee the existence of a globally attractive positive almost periodic solution of the system is established. An example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the obtained results. 展开更多
关键词 Discrete-time predator-prey system non-monotonic functional response per-manence global attractivity almost periodic solution.
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Analysis of the interaction among weed, inorganic fertilizer and herbivore in paddy ecosystem in fallow season
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作者 Meihong Xiang zhaohua wu Tiejun Zhou 《International Journal of Biomathematics》 2017年第8期315-332,共18页
Paddy growth is influenced by the amount of inorganic fertilizer in paddy ecosystem in fallow season. To discover the interaction among weed, inorganic fertilizer and her- bivore in the system, we put forward a differ... Paddy growth is influenced by the amount of inorganic fertilizer in paddy ecosystem in fallow season. To discover the interaction among weed, inorganic fertilizer and her- bivore in the system, we put forward a differential equation model and investigate its properties. Results show that the system has a weed and herbivore extinct equilibrium and a herbivore extinct equilibrium. The two equilibria are proven to be unstable using the center manifold method. Under certain conditions, the system also has a positive equilibrium point. We give the stable region and the unstable region of the positive equilibrium point, which are determined by some parameters. We find that the system has the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon, and give the critical value of Hopf bifurcation by taking a system parameter as the bifurcation parameter. By comparing the equilib- rium states between a paddy ecosystem with herbivore and one without herbivore, we find that the content of inorganic fertilizer can be improved by putting herbivore into a paddy field. An example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the results. Numerical simulation shows that Hopf bifurcation phenomena exist in the system. 展开更多
关键词 Paddy ecosystem in fallow season equilibrium stability Hopf bifurcation center manifold theorem
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