A spillover network analysis of the global crude oil market:Evidence from the post-financial crisis era

The frequent occurrence of geopolitical crises in the post-financial crisis era is driving the rethinking behind whether the global crude oil market is still a highly connected"great pool".Using the spillover network model suggested by Baruník and Krehlík(2018),and the daily data of 31 global crude oil markets from 2009 to 2019,this study examines the return and volatility spillover effects and their timevarying behavior in six crude oil market segments at different timescales.The findings indicate that heterogeneity exists in the co-movements between global crude oil markets in the post-financial crisis era.In the medium term,both return and volatility spillover effects are not significant,which makes the diversified portfolio strategy useful.Prices in the Europe and Central Asian regions take the lead in return spillovers.In contrast,Asia-Pacific regional prices contribute the most in terms of volatility spillovers.Long-term volatility spillovers increase sharply when confronted with oil-related events in the postfinancial crisis era.Therefore,policymakers should take effective measures to prevent any large-scale risk transmission in the long run.

The tail risk safe haven property of China's energy futures against US market implied volatility

This paper analyses the tail risk contagion of US market implied volatility(USIV)on China's energy futures(CEF)markets,exploring how to utilize operations in the CEF to achieve a safe haven.Leveraging CEF characteristics to simultaneously take both long-/short-positions and engage in long-/short-run investment horizons,this paper defines eight different CEF safe haven attributes to counteract the tail risk of extreme increases in USIV.Using trading data from March 27,2018,to October 30,2023,the empirical results show that,first,in the analysis of the entire sample period,China's coking coal futures can serve as a weak safe haven,aiding long-position investors in mitigating the tail risks associated with US gold and stock market implied volatility.Coking coal futures also assist short-position investors in countering US stock market implied volatility tail risk.Second,in the sub-period analysis,the safe haven attributes of CEF exhibit strong heterogeneity and asymmetry across different periods.Finally,the time span during which CEF exhibits a particular safe haven attribute does not persist for an extended period.