Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.

Intercomparison of stable isotopes in precipitation simulated by GCMs with GNIP survey over East Asia

Using the isotope enabled ECHAM4, GISS E and HadCM3 GCMs, the spatial distribution of mean 6180 in precipitation, mean seasonality and the correlations of 6180 in precipitation with temperature and precipitation amount are analyzed. The simulated results are in agreement with stable isotopic features by GNIP observations. Over East Asia. the distribution of ~180 in precipita- tion is of marked latitude effect and altitude effect. The latitude effect is covered by the continent effect in some regions. The larg- est seasonality of^lSo in precipitation appears in eastern Siberia controlled by cold high pressure, and the smallest seasonality is in the western Pacific controlled by the subtropical high. Relatively weak seasonality appears in middle latitudes where oceanic and continental air masses frequently interact. However, three GCMs show significant systematic lower ~180 for inland mid-high lati- tudes than GNIP data, which is related to the used isotopic scheme in GCMs. Temperature effect occurs mainly in inland mid-high latitudes. The higher the latitude and the closer the distance to inland is, then the stronger the temperature effect. Amount effect occurs mainly in low-mid latitudes and monsoon areas, with the strongest effect in low-latitude coasts or islands. However, three GCMs provide virtually non-existent amount effect in arid regions over Central Asia. The enrichment action of stable isotopes in falling raindrops under a cloud base, which is enlarged by these modes, is responsible for such a result. A significant difference between spatial distributions of δ^18O statistics by GCMs simulations and by GNIP observations is that the standard deviation of GCMs statistics is greater than that of GNIP statistics. In contrast, by comparing parallel time series at a single station, the standard deviations of GCMs simulations are smaller than that of GNIP observations.

Evaluation of Summer Monsoon Clouds over the Tibetan Plateau Simulated in the ACCESS Model Using Satellite Products

Cloud distribution characteristics over the Tibetan Plateau in the summer monsoon period simulated by the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator(ACCESS) model are evaluated using COSP [the CFMIP(Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) Observation Simulator Package]. The results show that the ACCESS model simulates less cumulus cloud at atmospheric middle levels when compared with observations from CALIPSO and CloudSat, but more ice cloud at high levels and drizzle drops at low levels. The model also has seasonal biases after the onset of the summer monsoon in May. While observations show that the prevalent high cloud at 9–10 km in spring shifts downward to 7–9 km,the modeled maximum cloud fractions move upward to 12–15 km. The reason for this model deficiency is investigated by comparing model dynamical and thermodynamical fields with those of ERA-Interim. It is found that the lifting effect of the Tibetan Plateau in the ACCESS model is stronger than in ERA-Interim, which means that the vertical velocity in the ACCESS model is stronger and more water vapor is transported to the upper levels of the atmosphere, resulting in more high-level ice clouds and less middle-level cumulus cloud over the Tibetan Plateau. The modeled radiation fields and precipitation are also evaluated against the relevant satellite observations.