New Algorithm Rules Out Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure Development within 28 Days from Acute Decompensation of Cirrhosis

Background and Aims:Approximately 10%of patients with acute decompensated(AD)cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)within 28 days.Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict.Therefore,we aimed to establish and validate an algorithm to identify these patients on hospitalization.Methods:Hospitalized patients with AD who developed ACLF within 28 days were considered pre-ACLF.Organ dysfunction was defined accord-ing to the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure as-sessment(CLIF-SOFA)criteria,and proven bacterial infec-tion was taken to indicate immune system dysfunction.A retrospective multicenter cohort and prospective one were used to derive and to validate the potential algorithm,re-spectively.A miss rate of<5%was acceptable for the calcu-lating algorithm to rule out pre-ACLF.Results:In the deri-vation cohort(n=673),46 patients developed ACLF within 28 days.Serum total bilirubin,creatinine,international normalized ratio,and present proven bacterial infection at admission were associated with the development of ACLF.AD patients with≥2 organ dysfunctions had a higher risk for pre-ACLF patients[odds ratio=16.58195%confidence interval:(4.271-64.363),p<0.001].In the derivation co-hort,67.5%of patients(454/673)had≤1 organ dysfunction and two patients(0.4%)were pre-ACLF,with a miss rate of 4.3%(missed/total,2/46).In the validation cohort,65.9%of patients(914/1388)had≤1 organ dysfunction,and four(0.3%)of them were pre-ACLF,with a miss rate of 3.4%(missed/total,4/117).Conclusions:AD patients with≤1 organ dysfunction had a significantly lower risk of developing ACLF within 28 days of admission and could be safely ruled out with a pre-ACLF miss rate of<5%.

Investigation on the short-term outcome and prognostic impact of predisposition,and precipitants in inpatients with chronic liver disease from Chinese AcuTe on CHronic LIver FailurE(CATCH-LIFE)cohorts

Aim:The study aimed to investigate the short-term outcomes of hospitalized patients with chronic liver disease(CLDs)and assess the prognostic impact of predisposition and precipitants,which currently remains unclear.Methods:The study included 3970 hospitalized patients with CLDs from two prospective longitudinal multicenter studies(NCT02457637 and NCT03641872)conducted in highly endemic hepatitis B virus(HBV)areas.Competing risk analysis was used to evaluate the effect of predispositions,including the etiology and severity of CLDs and precipitants;on sequential 28,90,and 365-day liver transplantation(LT)-free mortality.Results:Among all enrolled patients,76.8%of adverse outcomes(including death and LT)within one year occurred within 90 days.Compared with alcoholic etiology,the association of HBV etiology with poorer outcomes was remarkably on the 28th day(hazard ratio[HR],1.81;95%confidence interval[CI],1.07-3.06;p=0.026);however,and dimin-ished or became insignificant at 90 days and 365 days.Cirrhosis increased the adjusted risk for 365-day(HR,1.50;CI,1.13-1.99;p=0.004)LT-free mortality when compared with noncirrhosis.In patients with cirrhosis,prior decompensation(PD)independently increased the adjusted risk of 365-day LT-free mortality by 1.25-fold(p=0.021);however,it did not increase the risk for 90-day mortality.Neither the category nor the number of precipitants influenced the adjusted risk of 28 or 90-day LT-free mortality.Conclusions:The 90-day outcome should be considered a significant endpoint for evaluating the short-term prognosis of hospitalized patients with CLD.Predisposing factors,other than etiology,mainly affected the delayed(365-day)outcome.Timely effective therapy for CLD etiology,especially antiviral treatments for HBV,and post-discharge long-term surveillance monitoring in cirrhotic patients undergoing PD are suggested to enhance disease management and reduce mortality.