中国房地产市场对银行业系统性风险的溢出效应

基于双重ΔCoVaR模型研究房地产市场对中国银行业系统性风险的溢出效应,得出:房地产市场风险上升会增加银行自身的风险及单家银行对银行系统的风险贡献度,但会降低机构间关联性的风险贡献度。间接风险溢出是最重要且稳定的驱动因子,直接风险溢出的作用仅次于间接风险溢出。国房景气指数对银行系统的净溢出效应最大,房地产价格次之,房地产市场贷款的净溢出效应最小。此外,二线城市房地产市场价格是对银行部门进行风险溢出的关键渠道。

Does China’s Financial System Amplify Risks in the Real Economy?

The smooth operation of the financial system can promote economic growth by absorbing risks,while the risks breaking out in the financial system will drag down economic development through risk spillovers and amplification.On this basis,this paper uses secondary industry indices to build a risk spillover network between the real economy and the financial system,and discusses the risk absorption and amplification role of the financial system in China’s economy and finance from the perspective of industry.First,on the whole,the source of risks in China’s economic and financial system lies in the real economy.The financial system plays a role of risk absorption in China’s economic and financial system,demonstrating the professional risk management functions of the financial system.The risk absorption of the financial system is positively correlated with the risks in the real economy,and negatively correlated with the risks in the financial system.Second,from the perspective of the correlation between the financial sub-industry and the real economy,the banking sector has the closest relationship with the real economy and the lowest risk absorption capacity.Third,from the perspective of the internal correlation of the financial system,the internal network correlation of the financial system is asymmetric.Diversifi ed financial industry has stronger risk spillover effect on the banking industry and the insurance industry,while the insurance industry has stronger risk spillover effect on the banking industry.These results are essentially related to the functioning of the financial system,the internal relationship of the financial system and the relationship between the financial system and the real economy.