前言——国家自然科学基金重大研究计划“青藏高原地-气耦合系统变化及其全球气候效应”专题

青藏高原(以下简称高原)是世界上海拔最高的高原,平均海拔超过4000 m,其覆盖面积约占我国陆地领土的四分之一。高原群山起伏,山谷纵横交错,地表状况和地—气交换的物理过程极其复杂。高原的复杂地形通过其热力和动力作用对高原及邻近地区乃至全球的环流系统和天气气候产生巨大影响。特别是近几十年以来高原主体部分发生了异常显著的气候增暖,其幅度明显超过北半球平均状况和同纬度其他地区,被公认为是对全球变化响应最显著的地区之一。因此,探究高原的气候影响已成为全球气候变化研究的科学前沿。然而,由于观测资料的缺乏、气候系统模式的偏差以及物理认识的不足,当前对高原能量和水分交换及其气候影响的认识仍然有限。

Attenuation of ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface due to atmospheric aerosols in Guangzhou

The UV attenuation due to atmospheric aerosols in Guangzhou was quantitatively assessed using surface ultraviolet radiation (UV,295-385 nm) observation,sun photometer and radiation models.Observations showed that the annual average value of aerosol optical depth (AOD) was 1.19 in UV spectral region of 340 nm,the annual average occurrence frequency of aerosol optical depth AOD 340 nm >1.0 was 55%,and the annual average attenuation rate of surface UV direct radiation of 340 nm was 68%.It was proven in the observation of surface UV radiation and model evaluation that annual average attenuation of UV due to atmosphere was 75%,and that reached 72% in the dry season (October,November,December and January);while average attenuation of UV due to atmospheric aerosols reached 62% in the dry season.It was indicated that very significant UV attenuations due to atmospheric aerosols existed in Guangzhou urban agglomeration,and at least half of UV radiation was attenuated due to atmospheric aerosols.Such large-amplitude attenuation will have a significant impact on urban ecosystem and species chemical cycles,especially photochemical reaction processes.

Impacts of thermodynamic processes over the Tibetan Plateau on the Northern Hemispheric climate

We here report our recent research results on the climatic features of Tibetan thermodynamic functions and their impacts on the regional climates of the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that the thermodynamic processes over the Tibetan Plateau not only strongly influence the Asian monsoon and precipitation, but also modulate the atmospheric circulation and climate over North America and Europe through stimulating the large-scale teleconnections such as the Asian-Pacific oscillation and affect the atmospheric circulation over the southern Indian Ocean. The Tibetan climate may be affected by sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific. On the other hand, the Tibetan climate also affects the atmosphere-ocean interactions in the tropics and mid-latitudes of the Pacific by the atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. In spring and summer, the thermodynamic anomalies on the plateau affect the subtropical high pressure, the Hadley circulation, and the intertropical convergence zone over the Pacific, and then modulate the development of the El Ni-o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is necessary to study the forecasting methods for the development of ENSO from the Tibetan climate anomaly. This result also embodies the essence of interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean over the Northern Hemisphere. Since the previous studies focused on impacts of the plateau on climates in the Asian monsoon regions, it is essential to pay more attention to studying the roles of the plateau in the Northern Hemispheric and even global climates.

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.

Ozone mini-hole occurring over the Tibetan Plateau in December 2003

By analyzing the total ozone data from TOMS and ground-based observations, it is found that a large area with extremely low ozone occurred over the Tibetan Plateau during December 14-17, 2003. After correcting the bias in TOMS data, the area with the total ozone < 220 DU is found to be over 2500000 km2, and the minimum value is only 190 DU. It is the first time that an ozone mini-hole or an extremely low ozone event is found to occur over the Tibetan Plateau.

Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and variation of East Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium

To study the long-term variation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index(IAPO),representing a zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific,is recon-structed over the past millennium.During the Little Ice Age(LIA),the variability of the reconstructed IAPO is closely linked to dry-wet anomalies in eastern China on the centennial scale.This correlation pattern is consistent with the observation during the current period,which suggests that the reconstructed IAPO may generally represent the centennialscale variation of the EASM and rainfall anomalies over eastern China during the LIA.

Charge structures and cloud-to-ground lightning discharges characteristics in two supercell thunderstorms

The charge structures and temporal and spatial characteristics of cloud-to-ground (CG) light- ning discharges in two supercell thunderstorms have been analyzed based on the data of three-dimen- sional VHF radiation sources with high time and space resolution produced by lightning discharges. The results indicate that the charge structures in main part (convective region) of the thunderstorms were inverted tripole while a number of positive CG lightning discharges were occurring in the two thun- derstorms. The positive CG lightning discharges oc- curred in main part of the thunderstorms and origi- nated from the positive charge region located at the middle part of the thunderstorms. While a number of negative CG lightning discharges were occurring, the negative CG lightning discharges occurred in the anvil of the thunderstorm. The charge structure is inverted dipole in the region due to the slant of charge structure in main region toward anvil region. The negative charge region located at the upper part of anvil produced a lot of negative CG lightning dis- charges. No or less CG lighting was produced di- rectly by the charge region located at the lower part of the thunderstorm. The charge region in lower part of the thunderstorm plays an important role for the occurrence of CG lightning from charge region above it.

Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity

To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10-13-year, and 3-7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305-1315, 1420-1430, and 1625-1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120-160-year, 60-70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12-22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar

A novel method for distinguishing fog and haze based on PM2.5, visibility, and relative humidity

Haze and fog are both low visibility events, but with different physical properties. Haze is caused by the increase of aerosol loading or the hygroscopic growth of aerosol at high relative humidity, whereas visibility degradation in fog is due to the light scattering of fog droplets, which are transited from aerosols via activation. Based on the difference of physical properties between haze and fog, this study presents a novel method to distinguish haze and fog using real time measurements of PM2.5, visibility, and relative humidity. In this method, a criterion can be developed based on the local historical data of particle number size distributions and aerosol hygroscopicity. Low visibility events can be classified into haze and fog according to this criterion.

An East Asian land-sea atmospheric heat source difference index and its relation to general circulation and summer rainfall over China

Using a monthly precipitation dataset of 160 stations over China and a daily and monthly National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset from 1961 to 2006, we here define an East Asian land-sea atmospheric heat source difference index ILSQD and investigate its relationship to summer rainfall in China and East Asian general circulation. The results show that ILSQD more closely reflects the anomalous variations in summer monsoon phenomena; in the high-index (HI) cases, the strong low-level southerlies over East China and the strong high-level westerlies over middle latitudes indicate an active summer monsoon, and vice versa in the low-index (LI) cases. This index also reflects summer rainfall anomalies over East China; in the HI (LI) cases rainfall increases (decreases) over North China and at the same time decreases (increases) over the mid-lower Yangtze River valley and the southern Yangtze River. Hence, ILSQD can be utilized as a summer monsoon index. There is also remarkable correlation between ILSQD in March and the following summer rainfall over the mid-lower Yangtze River valley. Finally, the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3.1 (CAM3.1) of NCAR is used to run numerical experiments, which verify that the anomalous summer precipitation in simulations is similar to that of diagnosis analysis based on the anomalous summer atmospheric heating forcing. Similarly, the atmospheric heating rate in March can force summer rainfall anomalies in the simulations just as observed in the data.

Onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon and rainy season in China

Here we use harmonic analyses to examine seasonal variations of China land rainfall, low-level winds, and atmospheric heating over East Asia during spring to summer and the associated subtropical summer monsoon activities. Our results indicate that the South China spring rainfall (SCSR) in March is the prophase of East Asian sub-tropical summer monsoon (EASSM), and the onset of EASSM and China summer rainy season starts in early April, characterized by the enhanced rainfall in South China and the seasonal reverse of zonal land-sea thermal contrast in sub-tropical East Asia. The EASSM onset is earlier than that of South China Sea summer monsoon, and it is active in east of 100?E and north of 20?N. Our analyses suggest that the subsequent heating appears over India-China Peninsula in March and South China in April and causes the low-level atmospheric warming and the zonal land-sea thermal contrast seasonal reverse in East Asian subtropics. The atmospheric heating over South China is the main force to drive the southwesterly winds, updrafts and strengthen the summer precipitation in South China.

Study on variational aerosol fields over Beijing and its adjoining areas derived from Terra-MODIS and ground sunphotometer observation

This paper presents a comprehensive observa-tion technique on derived aerosols data from mobile sun-photometer graph and Terra-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observation. Research results suggest that after being treated by the variational technique with respect to sunphotometer observations, the Terra- MODIS remote sensing aerosol data are remarkably im-proved, thus for the first time revealing features of the influ-ence of aerosols and pollution emissions of Beijing and its adjoining areas (Hebei, Shandong, etc. provinces). The re-gional impact features of aerosols are related with the pe-ripheral U-shape topography of Beijing. Analyses with Hy-brid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) and meteorological data in the case studied confirm the pollutants diffusion process along the trajectory from the sources in the south-west region, and the regional aerosol impact features.

Effect of atmospheric aerosol on surface ozone variation over the Pearl River Delta region

Our analysis of the surface aerosol and ultraviolet （UV） measurements in Pearl River Delta （PRD） region shows that the surface UV radiation is reduced by more than 50% due to high aerosol concentrations. This has important impacts on urban ecosystem and photochemistry, especially on ozone photochemical production over the region. The quantitative effect of aerosols on surface ozone is evaluated by analyzing surface observations （including ozone, ultraviolet radiation, aerosol radiative parameters） and by using radiative and chemical models. A case study shows that the aerosol concentrations and UV radiation are significantly correlated with ozone concentrations. The correlation coefficient between the aerosol optical depth （AOD） and the PM10 mass concentration is very high, with a maximum of 0.98, and the AOD and UV radiation/ozone is anti- correlated, with a correlation coefficient of-0.90. The analysis suggests that ozone productivity is significantly decreased due to the reduction of UV radiation. The noon-time ozone maximum is considerably depressed when AOD is 0.6, and is further decreased when AOD is up to 1.2 due to the reduction of ozone photochemical productivity. Because the occurring probability of aerosol optical depth for AOD550m≥0.6 and AOD340mm ≥1.0 is 47, and 55% respectively during the dry season （October, November, December, January）, this heavy aerosol condition explains the low ozone maximum that often occurs in the dry season over the Guangzhou region. The analysis also suggests that the value of single scattering albedo （SSA） is very sensitive to the aerosol radiative effect when the radiative and chemical models are applied, implying that the value of SSA needs to be carefully studied when the models are used in calculating ozone production.

Characteristics of atmospheric aerosol optical depth variation over China in recent 30 years

This note retrieves the annual and monthly mean 0.75 urn aerosol optical depth (AOD) by using the daily direct solar radiation and sunshine duration data of 47 solar stations from 1961 to 1990. The characteristic of AOD variation over China in recent 30 years was analyzed. The results indicate that AOD increased obviously over China from 1961 to 1990. AOD increased most rapidly over the east part of Southwest China, the middle-and-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Tibetan Plateau. The increasing trend of AOD is also relatively distinct in North China, the Shandong Peninsula, east part of Qinghai Province, and coastal areas of Guangdong Province. However, in most parts of Northwest China and Northeast China, the increase of AOD is less significant, while in the west part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and some parts of Yunnan Province, AOD shows decreasing tendency. Generally, AOD reaches its maximum in spring and the minimum appears in summer. As to the linear trend, the maximum

A novel approach in predicting non-stationary time series by combining external forces

In this paper, we investigate a novel technique that reconstructs the observed time series and incorporates driving forces. Furthermore, to illustrate and test the technique, we consider a couple of predictive experiments using ideal time series provided by the logistic and Lorenz systems with specific driving forces. The preliminary results show this approach can improve prediction proficiency to some extent, and the external forces play a similar role to that of state variables.

Analysis of reconstructed annual precipitation from tree-rings for the past 500 years in the middle Qilian Mountain

The ring-width chronology of a Juniperus przewalskii tree from the middle of the Qilian Mountain was constructed to estimate the annual precipitation (from previous August to current July) since AD 1480.The reconstruction showed four major alternations of drying and wetting over the past 521 years.The rainy 16th century was followed by persistent drought in the 17th century.Moreover,relatively wet conditions persisted from the 18th to the beginning of 20th century until the recurrence of a drought during the 1920s and 1930s.Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition method,eight Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) were extracted,each representing unique fluctuations of the reconstructed precipitation in the time-frequency domain.The high amplitudes of IMFs on different timescales were often consistent with the high amount of precipitation,and vice versa.The IMF of the lowest frequency indicated that the precipitation has undergone a slow increasing trend over the past 521 years.The 2-3 year and 5-8 year time-scales reflected the characteristics of inter-annual variability in precipitation relevant to regional atmospheric circulation and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),respectively.The 10-13 year scale of IMF may be associated with changing solar activity.Specifically,an amalgamation of previous and present data showed that droughts were likely to be a historically persistent feature of the Earth's climate,whereas the probability of intensified rainfall events seemed to increase during the course of the 19th and 20th centuries.These changing characteristics in precipitation indicate an unprecedented alteration of the hydrological cycle,with unknown future amplitude.Our reconstruction complements existing information on past precipitation changes in the Qilian Mountain,and provides additional low-frequency information not previously available.

Modeling impacts of East Asian Ocean-Land thermal contrast on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall in eastern China

Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of precipitation, and the MM5v3 Meso-scale Model, the impacts of surface temperature differences between the East Asian land and its adjacent oceans on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall over eastern China are studied. The modeling results show that the temperature differences exert strong influence on the occurrence of the southwesterly winds and rainfall over southern China and their northward advances. When surface temperature increases over the land and decreases over the oceans, the temperature gradient with a winter feature earlier changes toward the gradient with a summer feature. Both the low-pressure system east of the Tibetan Plateau and the subtropical high-pressure system over the western Pacific strengthen, accompanying with the strengthening of the lower-tropospheric southwesterly winds over eastern China. Accordingly, the upward motion increases over the Yangtze-Huaihe River (YHR) valleys and decreases over southern China, leading to an increase of spring rainfall over the YHR valleys and a decrease over southern China. Thus, the rain belt over eastern China appears over the YHR valleys but not over southern China. Under a weaker condition of the spring thermal contrast, the rain belt does not occur over eastern China. When the spring thermal contrast pronouncedly strengthens, the rain belt over southern China may advance northward into the YHR valleys during spring, though there is no onset of the tropical monsoon over the South China Sea. This forms a rain belt similar to that of the YHR valleys during the summer Meiyu period.

Numerical simulation study of temperature change over East China in the past millennium

Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves.

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor and ozone profiles over the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent region during boreal summer

We present validation studies of MLS V2.2 and V3.3 water vapor(WV) and ozone profiles over the Tibetan Plateau(Naqu and Lhasa) and its adjacent region(Tengchong) respectively by using the balloon-borne Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer and Electrochemical Concentration Cell ozonesonde. Coincident in situ measurements were selected to compare the MLS V2.2 and V3.3 WV and ozone profiles for understanding the applicability of the two version MLS products over the region. MLS V2.2 and V3.3 WV profiles respectively show their differences within ?2.2±15.7%(n=74) and 0.3±14.9%(n=75) in the stratosphere at and above 82.5 h Pa. Accordingly, at 100 h Pa, the altitude approaching the tropopuase height, differences are within 9.8± 46.0%(n=18) and 23.0±45.8%(n=17), and they are within 21.5±90.6%(n=104) and 6.0±83.4%(n=99) in upper troposphere. The differences of MLS ozone are within ?11.7±16.3%(n=135, V2.2) and 15.6±24.2%(n=305, V3.3) at and above 82.5 h Pa. At 100 h Pa, they are within ?3.5±54.4%(n=27) and ?8.7±41.6%(n=38), and within 18.0±79.1%(n=47) and 34.2±76.6%(n=160) in the upper troposphere. The relative difference of MLS WV and ozone profile has significant oscillation and scatter at upper troposphere and lower stratosphere partly due to the stronger gradients of WV and ozone concentrations here as well the linear interpolation of sonde data for the intercomparison. At and below 70 h Pa, the relative differences of MLS ozone are significantly larger over Lhasa during the Tibetan Plateau "ozone valley" season, which is also the Asian Summer Monsoon period. The MLS ozone differences over the three sites are similar in their vertical distributions during that period. A simple linear correlation analysis between MLS and sonde profiles indicates that the sensitivity of MLS profile products is related to concentrations at each pressure level. The MLS V3.3 product sensitivity is slightly improved for WV at and above 82.5 h Pa, whereas it is not obvious for ozone. The possible factors contributing to the differences of the MLS profile products of WV and ozone are discussed.

A new Planetary Boundary Layer model and its application to heavy rain modeling

A new Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) model (namely MY-4 in this paper) was developed with reference to Mellor-Yamada’s Level 4 turbulent closure concept. Having been coupled with a meso-scale model MM5, MY-4 was util-ized to simulate a heavy-rain process, which took place over South China during June 8-9, 1998. Its model outputs indi-cated that the rainfall process was well captured in terms of its intensity and geographical distribution. More importantly, in comparison with MM5’s original boundary layer models, MY-4 made the following improvements: (1) MY-4 not only simulated the major weather systems like low vortexes and low-level jets more accurately, thus improving the general weather pattern of the rainfall process, but it was also capa-ble of restraining the occurrence of false rainfall centers with maximum precipitation amounts exceeding 160 mm. (2) Having been compared with the wind profile observed at Hong Kong, it revealed that MY-4 could reproduce the wind speed fluctuations in a short time scale reasonably well, which was not yet achieved in the original PBL models in MM5. Furthermore, a more detailed comparative study was made on the results simulated by MY-4 and a PBL model (which is based on Mellor-Yamada’s Level 2.5 concept) re-spectively. It showed that the contributions of turbulences generated by the two categories of PBL models to the wind fields at a lower atmosphere were increasingly different even in the first 1-2 hours of integrations. As the analysis dem-onstrated, under the nonlinear interactions within the meso-scale MM5 model, it was the turbulences in the boundary layer that had the most important impacts on the final model outputs and MY-4 seemed to better reflect this turbulent process, hence leading to the aforementioned im-provements.