Numerical modeling and prediction of future response of permafrost to different climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Projecting the future distribution of permafrost under different climate change scenarios is essential,especially for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP).The altitude-response model is used to estimate future permafrost changes on the QTP for the four RCPs(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5).The simulation results show the following:(1)from now until 2070,the permafrost will experience different degrees of significant degradation under the four RCP scenarios.This will affect 25.68%,40.54%,45.95%,and 62.84%of the current permafrost area,respectively.(2)The permafrost changes occur at different rates during the periods 2030–2050 and 2050–2070 for the four different RCPs.(1)In RCP2.6,the permafrost area decreases a little during the period 2030–2050 but shows a small increase from 2050 to 2070.(2)In RCP4.5,the rate of permafrost loss during the period 2030–2050(about 12.73%)is higher than between 2050 and 2070(about 8.33%).(3)In RCP6.0,the permafrost loss rate for the period 2030–2050(about 16.52%)is similar to that for 2050–2070(about 16.67%).(4)In RCP8.5,there is a significant discrepancy in the rate of permafrost decrease for the periods 2030–2050 and 2050–2070:the rate is only about 3.70%for the first period but about 29.49%during the second.