The novel coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak on the Diamond Princess(DP)ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20,2020.We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process,and ...The novel coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak on the Diamond Princess(DP)ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20,2020.We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process,and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9(95%CrI:1.7e7.7).The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days,and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial.We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34%after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5.According to the model simulation,relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size,postpone the timing of epidemic peak,and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare.The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.展开更多
基金supported by General Research Fund(Grant Number 15205119)the Research Grants Council(RGC)of Hong Kong,China and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project+1 种基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Number 61672013)Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention(Grant Number HAP201704),Huaian,Jiangsu,China.
文摘The novel coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak on the Diamond Princess(DP)ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20,2020.We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process,and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9(95%CrI:1.7e7.7).The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days,and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial.We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34%after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5.According to the model simulation,relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size,postpone the timing of epidemic peak,and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare.The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.
