Variation in the Flaring Potential of Different Sunspot Groups During Different Phases of Solar Cycles 23 and 24

In this present study,we have analyzed different types of X-ray solar flares(C,M,and X classes)coming out from different classes of sunspot groups(SSGs).The data which we have taken under this study cover the duration of 24 yr from 1996 to 2019.During this,we observed a total of 15015 flares(8417 in SC-23 and 6598 in SC-24)emitted from a total of 33780 active regions(21746 in SC-23 and 12034 in SC-24)with sunspot only.We defined the flaring potential or flare-production potential as the ratio of the total number of flares produced from a particular type of SSG to the total number of the same-class SSGs observed on the solar surface.Here we studied yearly changes in the flaring potential of different McIntosh class groups of sunspots in different phases of SC-23 and 24.In addition,we investigated yearly variations in the potential of producing flares by different SSGs(A,B,C,D,E,F,and H)during different phases(ascending,maximum,descending,and minimum)of SC-23 and 24.These are our findings:(1)D,E,and F SSGs have the potential of producing flares≥8 times greater than A,B,C and H SSGs;(2)The larger and more complex D,E,and F SSGs produced nearly 80%of flares in SC-23 and 24;(3)The A,B,C and H SSGs,which are smaller and simpler,produced only 20%of flares in SC-23 and 24;(4)The biggest and most complex SSGs of F-class have flaring potential 1.996 and 3.443 per SSG in SC-23 and 24,respectively.(5)The potential for producing flares in each SSG is higher in SC-24 than in SC-23,although SC-24 is a weaker cycle than SC-23.(6)The alterations in the number of flares(C+M+X)show different time profiles than the alterations in sunspot numbers during SC-23 and 24,with several peaks.(7)The SSGs of C,D,E,and H-class have the highest flaring potential in the descending phase of both SC-23 and 24.(8)F-class SSGs have the highest flaring potential in the descending phase of SC-23 but also in the maximum phase of SC-24.

Dreicer Electric Field Definition and Runaway Electrons in Solar Flares

We analyze electron acceleration by a large-scale electric field E in a collisional hydrogen plasma under the solar flare coronal conditions based on approaches proposed by Dreicer and Spitzer for the dynamic friction force of electrons.The Dreicer electric field EDr is determined as a critical electric field at which the entire electron population runs away.Two regimes of strong(E≲E_(Dr))and weak(E≪E_(Dr))electric field are discussed.It is shown that the commonly used formal definition of the Dreicer field leads to an overestimation of its value by about five times.The critical velocity at which the electrons of the"tail"of the Maxwell distribution become runaway under the action of the sub-Dreiser electric fields turns out to be underestimated by√3 times in some works because the Coulomb collisions between runaway and thermal electrons are not taken into account.The electron acceleration by sub-Dreicer electric fields generated in the solar corona faces difficulties.

光学观测与微波辐射模拟对月壤厚度的反演

由月球正面的光学反照率,根据颗粒表面分光反照率的几何光学模型,计算月球正面FeO+TiO2含量的分布。根据月球正面数字高程(DEM,digitalelevationmapping)与FeO+TiO2含量之间的统计关系,由月球背面DEM构造月球背面的FeO+TiO2含量分布。由整个月球表面的FeO+TiO2含量分布,计算月球表面介电常数的分布。依据月球表面温度分布以及由DEM对应构造的月球表面月壤厚度,由起伏逸散定理,模拟计算了3,7.8,19.35,37GHz四个通道平行分层月壤微波辐射亮度温度的月球表面分布。以此模拟分布为理论观测值,提出三通道—两通道相结合的月壤厚度反演方法。当FeO+TiO2含量较低,各通道辐射亮度温度有差异时,采用三通道方法反演月壤厚度;当FeO+TiO2含量过高,使得高频7.8,19.35,37GHz的辐射亮度温度由于饱和而趋于相同时,采用两通道方法反演月壤厚度。若金属含量过高,而可能使四个通道辐射亮度温度都不易区分时,由FeO+TiO2含量可以确定出月壤厚度的下限值。为现有的多通道微波探月提供一个可行的月壤厚度反演方法,也有助于月球表面辐射亮度温度的定标与验证。

Construction and Validation of a Geometry-based Mathematical Model for the Hard X-Ray Imager

Quantitative and analytical analysis of the modulation process of the collimator is a great challenge,and is also of great value to the design and development of Fourier transform imaging telescopes.The Hard X-ray Imager(HXI),as one of the three payloads onboard the Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory(ASO-S) mission,adopts modulating Fourier-Transformation imaging technique and will be used to explore the mechanism of energy release and transmission in solar flare activities.As an important step to reconstruct the images of solar flares,accurate modulation functions of HXI are needed.In this paper,a mathematical model is developed to analyze the modulation function under a simplified condition first.Then its behavior under six degrees of freedom is calculated after adding the rotation matrix and translation change to the model.In addition,unparalleled light and extended sources are also considered so that our model can be used to analyze the X-ray beam experiment.Next,applied to the practical HXI conditions,the model has been confirmed not only by Geant4 simulations but also by some verification experiments.Furthermore,how this model helps to improve the image reconstruction process after the launch of ASO-S is also presented.

2006年12月系列太阳耀斑事件的近地响应分析

利用几种不同空间位置空间天气观测数据对2006年12月系列太阳耀斑近地空间天气效应进行多方位分析,结果表明,该系列耀斑都伴随不同程度日冕物质抛射CME和高速太阳风,首轮耀斑产生超过600 km/s高速太阳风,12月6日通过L1点并持续到12月12日,12月14日次轮耀斑产生900 km/s太阳风高速流,该股高速太阳风引发12月15日地磁场特大磁暴。ACE数据显示,12月6、14、15日IMF南向分量长时间超过5 nT,14～15日有4 h以上超过10 nT,NOAA SEC发布的全球地磁综合KP指数15日超过8。磁暴期间华南地区30 min平均TEC最大值波动幅度达到10TECU或20%,表明发生了较大电离层暴。

“嫦娥一号”探月卫星发射期间太阳活动现象监测

为发射"嫦娥一号"探月卫星,保障其在空间环境运行的安全和国家载人航天计划的正常实施,云南天文台全日面Hα色球望远镜为中国科学院空间环境研究预报中心实时提供太阳活动数据资料,协作完成特殊时期空间环境监测任务。

宁静色球中HeI 10830 线的光谱特征

本文阐述用紫金山天文台太阳光谱仪新安装的雷迪康系统在1986年和1987年进行的宁静色球HeI 1083光谱观测的初步结果.得到: (1)10830线在日面边缘之外有一发射极大.1987年的发射极大强度(△I/I_(ε☉))_m比1986年明显增大. (2)极大强度(△I/I_(c☉))_m大致正比于谱线半宽. (3)冕洞区的谱线半宽明显小于非冕洞区,且与发射强度无关. (4)谱线半宽在发射极大之前基本为一常数,向外大都有变大趋势,开始变化的高度与光学厚度值有关. (5)冕洞区的光学厚度明显小于非冕洞区. (6)(△I/I_(c☉))只与黑子相对数月平滑值大体呈正变关系,而与1—8X射线流量及测点上空冕绿线的强度无相关迹象. 文中还给出我们计算的理论轮廓拟合实测轮廓的初步结果,指出难以用均匀模型很好解释所得到的观测轮廓;用一个简单的双层模型则不仅对边缘发射轮廓拟合有很大改进,而且算出的日面吸收轮廓亦较合理.因而不必象许多研究者那样非要假设一个20公里/秒的水平湍流场才能加以解释.

太阳质子事件、双带耀斑及日冕物质抛射

本文统计了第２２ 太阳活动周期间（１９９１ ～１９９５ 年） 发生的２５ 个太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑及日冕物质抛射（ＣＭＥ） 事件的关系 统计结果表明， 所有的太阳质子事件都与耀斑发生相关， 除２ 个质子事件（１９９４１０２０ 和１９９５１０２０ 日发生的太阳质子事件） 与ＣＭＥ发生无关， 其余质子事件也都与ＣＭＥ 相关 值得注意的是， 与质子事件相关的耀斑有１６ 个是双带耀斑， 其中包括与ＣＭＥ无关的２ 个事件的耀斑， 占总数的６４ ％  上述统计结果证实了无论是太阳耀斑， 还是物质抛射，

Main Sequence Star Super-flare Frequency based on Entire Kepler Data

We wrote and used an automated flare detection Python script to search for super-flares on main sequence stars of types A,F,G,K and M in Kepler's long-cadence data from Q0 to Q17.We studied the statistical properties of the occurrence rate of super-flares.For the G-type data set,we compared our results with the previous results of Okamoto et al.by splitting the data set into four rotational bands.We found similar power-law indices for the flare frequency distribution.Hence,we show that inclusion of a high-pass filter,sample biases,gyrochronology and completeness of flare detection is of no significance,as our results are similar to those of Okamoto et al.We estimated that a super-flare on G-type dwarfs with energy of 10^(35) erg occurs on a star once every 4360 yr.We found 4637 super-flares on 1896 G-type dwarfs.Moreover,we identified 321,1125,4538 and 5445 super-flares on 136,522,770 and 312 dwarfs of types A,F,K and M,respectively.We ascertained that the occurrence rate(dN/dE)of super-flares versus flare energy,E,shows a power-law distribution with dN/dE∝E^(-α),whereα■2.0 to 2.1 for the spectral types from F-type to M-type stars.In contrast,the obtainedα■1.3 for A-type stars suggests that the flare conditions differ from those of the other spectral-type stars.We note an increase in flare incidence rate in F-type to M-type stars and a decrease in A-type to F-type stars.

一个中小型抛射的精细结构观测—太阳低层大气磁重联的证据

2000年6月18日中国科学院紫金山天文台赣榆观测站观测到太阳西边缘一个小型抛射现象,寿命仅15m.不属于耀斑的后期抛射现象,可看到十分精细的螺旋结构.用低层大气磁重联提供的初速约100km/s,在略去劳伦兹力情况下,给出了准均匀密度抛射柱所能达到的高度,和观测值一致.

Flare Forecast Model Based on DS-SMOTE and SVM with Optimized Regular Term

The research of flare forecast based on the machine learning algorithm is an important content of space science.In order to improve the reliability of the data-driven model and weaken the impact of imbalanced data set on its forecast performance,we proposes a resampling method suitable for flare forecasting and a Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)-based Support Vector Machine(SVM)regular term optimization method.Considering the problem of intra-class imbalance and inter-class imbalance in flare samples,we adopt the density clustering method combined with the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique(SMOTE)oversampling method,and performs the interpolation operation based on Euclidean distance on the basis of analyzing the clustering space in the minority class.At the same time,for the problem that the objective function used for strong classification in SVM cannot adapt to the sample noise,In this research,on the basis of adding regularization parameters,the PSO algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters,which can maximize the performance of the classifier.Finally,through a comprehensive comparison test,it is proved that the method designed can be well applied to the flare forecast problem,and the effectiveness of the method is proved.

LyαEmission Enhancement Associated with Soft X-Ray Microflares

Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016.We focused on the 242 B-class events which are less investigated,however,show non-negligible Lyαemission enhancement.We found that on average the Lyαpeak of B-class flares is 0.85%stronger than the background.For the flare energetics,it is found that the weaker the soft X-ray(SXR)flare,the larger the ratio of the radiated energy in Lyαto SXR.Using the RHESSI data and multi-wavelength observations taken by SDO-AIA,we diagnose the thermal and non-thermal properties of several flares.Three case studies show that the coincidence of the Lyαpeak with the SXR time-derivative peak is not a sufficient condition of the nonthermal property of a Lyαmicroflare.The Lyαenhancement in the microflares may be caused by the nonthermal electron beams or/and thermal conduction.However for typeⅢevents,we found that the delay of the Lyαpeak with respect to the SXR peak can be attributed to either the Lyαemission from a filament erupted or the cooling of the thermal plasma in flare loops.Furthermore,interestingly the Lyαemission from filaments can not only occur in the decay phase of the flare,but also in the preflare phase.In this case,the Lyαemission was originated from an erupted filament which probably initiated the flare.

Change Ratios of Magnetic Helicity and Magnetic Free Energy During Major Solar Flares

Magnetic helicity is an important concept in solar physics,with a number of theoretical statements pointing out the important role of magnetic helicity in solar flares and coronal mass ejections(CMEs).Here we construct a sample of 47 solar flares,which contains 18 no-CME-associated confined flares and 29 CME-associated eruptive flares.We calculate the change ratios of magnetic helicity and magnetic free energy before and after these 47 flares.Our calculations show that the change ratios of magnetic helicity and magnetic free energy show distinct different distributions in confined flares and eruptive flares.The median value of the change ratios of magnetic helicity in confined flares is-0.8%,while this number is-14.5%for eruptive flares.For the magnetic free energy,the median value of the change ratios is-4.3%for confined flares,whereas this number is-14.6%for eruptive flares.This statistical result,using observational data,is well consistent with the theoretical understandings that magnetic helicity is approximately conserved in the magnetic reconnection,as shown by confined flares,and the CMEs take away magnetic helicity from the corona,as shown by eruptive flares.

Martian Thermosphere Response to Solar Flares:MAVEN NGIMS Observations

The solar flare is a sudden eruptive solar phenomenon with significant enhancements in solar X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet radiations,resulting in large amounts of energy being injected into the planetary atmosphere.Case studies have been extensively presented to analyze the effect of extremely large flares on the Martian upper atmosphere,but the general features of the Martian thermospheric response to flares are still poorly understood.In this work,we select 12 intense solar flares that occurred between 2015 and 2017 and investigate the densities and compositional variations of the dayside Martian thermosphere to these flares with the aid of the measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN.The statistical studies indicate that the responses of the Martian thermosphere to flares are complicated that both the class of the flare and the wavelength of the enhanced radiation may have prominent influences on the thermal expansion of the atmosphere and the atmospheric photochemical reactions.

Research Progress on Solar Flare Forecast Methods Based on Data-driven Models

Eruption of solar flares is a complex nonlinear process,and the rays and high-energy particles generated by such an eruption are detrimental to the reliability of space-based or ground-based systems.So far,there are not reliable physical models to accurately account for the flare outburst mechanism,but a lot of data-driven models have been built to study a solar flare and forecast it.In the paper,the status of solar-flare forecasting is reviewed,with emphasis on the machine learning methods and data-processing techniques used in the models.At first,the essential forecast factors strongly relevant to solar flare outbursts,such as classification information of the sunspots and evolution pattern of the magnetic field,are reviewed and analyzed.Subsequently,methods of resampling for data preprocessing are introduced to solve the problems of class imbalance in the solar flare samples.Afterwards,typical model structures adopted for flare forecasting are reviewed from the aspects of the single and fusion models,and the forecast performances of the different models are analyzed.Finally,we herein summarize the current research on solar flare forecasting and outline its development trends.

类太阳色球活动星εEri磁场的观测研究

本文给出１９９３—１９９４年期间，用云南天文台１米望远镜折轴摄谱仪观测获得类太阳色球活动星。εＥｒｉ的５个波段高分辨、高信噪比光谱，运用两种不同方法：谱线轮廓塞曼致宽分析和多重线统计分析法成功地测定了εＥｒｉ的表面磁场强度和磁场的覆盖因子，并对这两种磁场测定方法作了简单的讨论．

基于对流参数的洋口港地区雷暴预报方法研究

文章分析了洋口港地区2001—2009年4—9月1645个样本22种对流参数与雷暴事件的相关性以及这些参数的统计特征。结果表明,各对流参数月际分布差异较大,各参数与雷暴事件相关系数也不同。因而选择沙氏指数SI、全总指数TT、杰弗逊指数JI、抬升凝结高度温度tcl_t、上下层温差dt_58、大气可降水量p_w、风暴强度指数SSI等7个对于雷暴活动具有较好相关性的因子,并考虑到4—9月月际分布差异,使用不同月份p_w、SI、TT、JI的不同阈值作为排空因子,不同月份SSI、tcl_t、dt_58的不同阈值作为预报因子,使用二级逻辑回归法建立排空方程和预报方程,同时对所建立各月预报方程进行了检验和拟合结果分析,并对2010年4—9月样本进行试报,预报效果较好。

利用GPS监测电离层总电子含量的季节性变化

利用Georgiadiou电离层模型计算了GPS系统硬件延迟,从而由双频伪距观测值获取绝对电离层总电子含量值。利用北京IGS站的GPS观测数据分别计算了2000年和2004年各个不同月份的总电子含量值,对两年各月份的总电子含量进行多项式拟合,发现总电子含量的季节性变化趋势一致。

2001年4月2日太阳耀斑及其太阳质子事件的观测结果研究

20 0 1年 4月 2日 ,太阳爆发了一个近年来X射线通量最大的一次耀斑并伴有质子事件 ,利用“资源一号”卫星星内粒子探测器和神舟二号飞船X射线探测器的观测资料 ,对这一事件的高能粒子响应进行了特例研究 .“资源一号”卫星运行于太阳同步轨道 ,高度约 80 0km ,和宁静时期的统计结果对比 ,这次耀斑后 ,星内粒子探测器在地球极盖区 (地球开磁场区 )观测到耀斑粒子的出现 ,这是宁静时期没有的 ;神舟二号飞船轨道高度 4 0 0km ,倾角为 4 2° ,X射线探测器在 4 2°中高纬地区也观测到高能电子通量比宁静时明显的增加 ,这表明 ,太阳耀斑引起的近地空间辐射环境的变化遍及纬度约 4 0°以上的区域 ,甚至在 4 0°N附近 4 0 0km左右的高度上仍然有响应 .但是 ,中高纬度、极光带和极盖区的粒子来源 ,加速机制和响应方式却不一定相同 ,需要分别讨论 .资料分析和对比还表明 ,质子事件的强度并不一定和耀斑的X射线通量成正比 ,因此 。