Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems,such as human aerospace activities,satellite communication and navigation,deep space exploration,and related scientific research.Therefore,studying the ...Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems,such as human aerospace activities,satellite communication and navigation,deep space exploration,and related scientific research.Therefore,studying the long-term evolution trend of solar activity and accurately predicting the future solar cycles are highly anticipated.Based on the wavelet transform and empirical function fitting of the longest recorded data of the annual average relative sunspot number(ASN)series of 323 yr to date,this work decisively verifies the existence of the solar century cycles and confirms that its length is about 104.0 yr,and the magnitude has a slightly increasing trend on the timescale of several hundred years.Based on this long-term evolutionary trend,we predict solar cycles 25 and26 by using phase similar prediction methods.As for solar cycle 25,its maximum ASN will be about146.7±33.40,obviously stronger than solar cycle 24.The peak year will occur approximately in 2024,and the period will be about 11±1 yr.As for solar cycle 26,it will start around 2030,and reach its maximum between2035 and 2036,with maximum ASN of about 133.0±3.200,and period of about 10 yr.展开更多
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections(CMEs)are thought to be the most powerful events on the Sun.They can release energy as high as~10^(32)erg in tens of minutes,and also can release solar energetic particles(SEPs)i...Solar flares and coronal mass ejections(CMEs)are thought to be the most powerful events on the Sun.They can release energy as high as~10^(32)erg in tens of minutes,and also can release solar energetic particles(SEPs)into interplanetary space.We explore global energy budgets of solar major eruptions that occurred on 2017 September 6,including the energy partition of a powerful solar flare,and the energy budget of the accompanying CME and SEPs.In the wavelength range shortward of~222 nm,a major contribution of the flare radiated energy is in the soft X-ray(SXR)0.1-7 nm domain.The flare energy radiated at wavelengths of Lyαand mid-ultraviolet is larger than that radiated in the extreme ultraviolet wavelengths,but it is much less than that radiated in the SxR waveband.The total flare radiated energy could be comparable to the thermal and nonthermal energies.The energies carried by the major flare and its accompanying CME are roughly equal,and they are both powered by the magnetic free energy in the NOAA AR 12673.Moreover,the CME is efficient in accelerating SEPs,and the prompt component(whether it comes from the solar flare or the CME)contributes only a negligible fraction.展开更多
An Ellerman Bomb(EB)is a kind of small scale reconnection event,which is ubiquitously formed in the upper photosphere or the lower chromosphere.The low temperature(<10,000 K)and high density(~1019–1022)plasma ther...An Ellerman Bomb(EB)is a kind of small scale reconnection event,which is ubiquitously formed in the upper photosphere or the lower chromosphere.The low temperature(<10,000 K)and high density(~1019–1022)plasma there makes the magnetic reconnection process strongly influenced by partially ionized effects and radiative cooling.This work studies the highβmagnetic reconnection near the solar temperature minimum region based on high-resolution 2.5D magnetohydrodynamics simulations.The time-dependent ionization degree of hydrogen and helium are included to realize more realistic diffusivities,viscosity and radiative cooling in simulations.Numerical results show that the reconnection rate is smaller than 0.01 and decreases with time during the early quasi-steady stage,then sharply increases to a value above 0.05 in the later stage as the plasmoid instability takes place.Both the large value ofηen(magnetic diffusion caused by the electron-neutral collision)and the plasmoid instability contribute to the fast magnetic reconnection in the EB-like event.The interactions and coalescence of plasmoids strongly enhance the local compression heating effect,which becomes the dominant mechanism for heating in EBs after plasmoid instability appears.However,the Joule heating contributed byηen can play a major role to heat plasmas when the magnetic reconnection in EBs is during the quasi-steady stage with smaller temperature increases.The results also show that the radiative cooling effect suppresses the temperature increase to a reasonable range,and increases the reconnection rate and generation of thermal energy.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China 2021YFA1600503 and 2022YFF0503001the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences XDB0560302+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,grant No.11973057)the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences 183311KYSB20200003。
文摘Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems,such as human aerospace activities,satellite communication and navigation,deep space exploration,and related scientific research.Therefore,studying the long-term evolution trend of solar activity and accurately predicting the future solar cycles are highly anticipated.Based on the wavelet transform and empirical function fitting of the longest recorded data of the annual average relative sunspot number(ASN)series of 323 yr to date,this work decisively verifies the existence of the solar century cycles and confirms that its length is about 104.0 yr,and the magnitude has a slightly increasing trend on the timescale of several hundred years.Based on this long-term evolutionary trend,we predict solar cycles 25 and26 by using phase similar prediction methods.As for solar cycle 25,its maximum ASN will be about146.7±33.40,obviously stronger than solar cycle 24.The peak year will occur approximately in 2024,and the period will be about 11±1 yr.As for solar cycle 26,it will start around 2030,and reach its maximum between2035 and 2036,with maximum ASN of about 133.0±3.200,and period of about 10 yr.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China 2022YFF0503002(2022YFF0503000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,Grant Nos.11973092,12073081,12003064,12103090 and U1938102)+6 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science,CAS,grant Nos.XDA15052200 and XDA15320301supported by the Specialized Research Fund for State Key LaboratoriesLYRA is a project of the Centre Spatial de Liege,the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and the Royal Observatory of Belgium funded by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office(BELSPO)by the Swiss Bundesamt für Bildung und WissenschaftPart of this work was performed in the framework of the SERPENTINE project,which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No.101004159support by the Turku Collegium for Science,Medicine and Technology of the University of Turku,Finlandsupport from the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office(BELSPO)in the framework of the ESA-PRODEX program,grant No.4000134474.
文摘Solar flares and coronal mass ejections(CMEs)are thought to be the most powerful events on the Sun.They can release energy as high as~10^(32)erg in tens of minutes,and also can release solar energetic particles(SEPs)into interplanetary space.We explore global energy budgets of solar major eruptions that occurred on 2017 September 6,including the energy partition of a powerful solar flare,and the energy budget of the accompanying CME and SEPs.In the wavelength range shortward of~222 nm,a major contribution of the flare radiated energy is in the soft X-ray(SXR)0.1-7 nm domain.The flare energy radiated at wavelengths of Lyαand mid-ultraviolet is larger than that radiated in the extreme ultraviolet wavelengths,but it is much less than that radiated in the SxR waveband.The total flare radiated energy could be comparable to the thermal and nonthermal energies.The energies carried by the major flare and its accompanying CME are roughly equal,and they are both powered by the magnetic free energy in the NOAA AR 12673.Moreover,the CME is efficient in accelerating SEPs,and the prompt component(whether it comes from the solar flare or the CME)contributes only a negligible fraction.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China No.2022YFF0503800the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,Grant Nos.11973083 and 11933009)+6 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS with grants XDA17040507the outstanding member of the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS(No.Y2021024)the Applied Basic Research of Yunnan Province in China Grant 2018FB009the Yunling Talent Project for the Youththe project of the Group for Innovation of Yunnan Province grant 2018HC023the Yunling Scholar Project of the Yunnan Province and the Yunnan Province Scientist Workshop of Solar PhysicsYunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Exploration(No.202205AG070009)。
文摘An Ellerman Bomb(EB)is a kind of small scale reconnection event,which is ubiquitously formed in the upper photosphere or the lower chromosphere.The low temperature(<10,000 K)and high density(~1019–1022)plasma there makes the magnetic reconnection process strongly influenced by partially ionized effects and radiative cooling.This work studies the highβmagnetic reconnection near the solar temperature minimum region based on high-resolution 2.5D magnetohydrodynamics simulations.The time-dependent ionization degree of hydrogen and helium are included to realize more realistic diffusivities,viscosity and radiative cooling in simulations.Numerical results show that the reconnection rate is smaller than 0.01 and decreases with time during the early quasi-steady stage,then sharply increases to a value above 0.05 in the later stage as the plasmoid instability takes place.Both the large value ofηen(magnetic diffusion caused by the electron-neutral collision)and the plasmoid instability contribute to the fast magnetic reconnection in the EB-like event.The interactions and coalescence of plasmoids strongly enhance the local compression heating effect,which becomes the dominant mechanism for heating in EBs after plasmoid instability appears.However,the Joule heating contributed byηen can play a major role to heat plasmas when the magnetic reconnection in EBs is during the quasi-steady stage with smaller temperature increases.The results also show that the radiative cooling effect suppresses the temperature increase to a reasonable range,and increases the reconnection rate and generation of thermal energy.
