Seismology and Climatology: A Study of Seismological Impacts of Climate Change in Indonesia

Climate change has been a matter of discourse for the last several decades. Much research has been conducted regarding the causes and impacts of climate change around the world. The current research contributes to the knowledge of the influence of climate change on our environment, with emphasis on earthquake occurrences in the region of Indonesia. Using global temperature anomaly as a measure of climate change, and earthquake data in Indonesia for the period 1900-2022, the paper seeks to find a relationship (if any) between the two variables. Statistical methods used include normal distribution analysis, linear regression and correlation test. The results show peculiar patterns in the progression of earthquake occurrences as well as global temperature anomaly occurring in the same time periods. The findings also indicated that the magnitudes of earthquakes remained unaffected by global temperature anomalies over the years. Nonetheless, there appears to be a potential correlation between temperature anomalies and the frequency of earthquake occurrences. As per the results, an increase in temperature anomaly is associated with a higher frequency of earthquakes.

Temperature Trends and Accumulation of Chill Hours, Chill Units, and Chill Portions in South Carolina

There is considerable concern about the potential impact of climate change on agriculture, such as the accumulation of chilling hours needed to break the dormancy of many perennial plants, like fruit trees. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if there had been a significant change in air temperatures and chill hours, chill units, and chill portion accumulation in South Carolina over the last two decades. Two decades of daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature records were obtained from weather stations in thirty-one counties in South Carolina. Hourly temperature data, reconstructed from the daily data, were used to calculate the daily and annual chill hours, chill units, and chill portions accumulation using four different chill models for each location and year. The chill models included the T(t) °C model, the 0°C °C model, the Utah model, and the Dynamic model. For each county, regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the historical trends. Despite year-to-year variability, the tendency was a statistically significant (α = 0.05) increase in air temperature, averaging 0.089°C per year for 20 out of 31 counties in South Carolina. The other 11 counties had no significant change in temperature. The average temperature increase in the 31 counties was 0.072°C per year. The temperature increase resulted in a decrease in annual chill accumulation during the fall to spring, averaging 17.7 chill hours, 8.6 chill hours, 17.0 chill units, and 0.40 chill portions per year calculated with the T(t) °C, 0°C °C, Utah, and Dynamic models, respectively. However, whether this decrease in chill values was statistically significant or not depended on the chill model used. This study did not investigate the cause of the observed historical trends in temperature and chill accumulation. Still, if the trends continue, they could significantly impact the future of the temperate fruit tree industry in the state.

Evaluation of Water Losses by Evaporation in the Nakanbe Basin

A numerical approach to heat and mass transfer in a large water reservoir is presented. This water reservoir is likened to a parallelepiped reservoir whose vertical and lower walls are adiabatic and impermeable. The equations that govern natural convection in water are solved by the finite volume method and Thomas’salgorithm. The adequacy between the velocity and pressure fields is ensured by the SIMPLE algorithm. We are going to evaluate the water losses by evaporation from three dams in the Nakanbé basin in Burkina Faso for a period of thirty years, that is to say from January 1, 1991, to March 15, 2020. The three dams have a rate of evaporation greater than 40% of the volume of water stored. Indeed the rate of evaporation in each dam increases with the water filling rate in the reservoir: we have observed the following results for each dam in the Nakanbé basin;for the date of 02/27/1988 to 03/13/2020., the Loumbila dam received a total volume of stored water of 22.02 Mm3 and 10.57 Mm3 as the total volume of water evaporated at the same date. At the Ouaga dam (2 + 3), it stored a water volume of 4.06 Mm3 and evaporated 2.03 Mm3 of its storage volume from 01/01/1988 to 05/07/2016. Finally, with regard to the Bagré dam, it stored 745.16 Mm3 of water and 365.13 Mm3 as the volume of water evaporated from 01/01/1993 to 03/31/2020.

2-D Modeling and Calculations of Stratospheric Ozone and Influences of Convection, Diffusion, and Time

An engineering system approach of 2-D cylindrical model of transient mass balance calculations of ozone and other concerned chemicals along with fourteen photolysis, ozone-generating and ozone-depleting chemical reaction equations was developed, validated, and used for studying the ozone concentrations, distribution and peak of the layer, ozone depletion and total ozone abundance in the stratosphere. The calculated ozone concentrations and profile at both the Equator and a 60˚N location were found to follow closely with the measured data. The calculated average ozone concentration was within 1% of the measured average, and the deviation of ozone profiles was within 14%. The monthly evolution of stratospheric ozone concentrations and distribution above the Equator was studied with results discussed in details. The influences of slow air movement in both altitudinal and radial directions on ozone concentrations and profile in the stratosphere were explored and discussed. Parametric studies of the influences of gas diffusivities of ozone DO3 and active atomic oxygen DO on ozone concentrations and distributions were also studied and delineated. Having both influences through physical diffusion and chemical reactions, the diffusivity (and diffusion) of atomic oxygen DO was found to be more sensitive and important than that of ozone DO3 on ozone concentrations and distribution. The 2-D ozone model present in this paper for stratospheric ozone and its layer and depletion is shown to be robust, convenient, efficient, and executable for analyzing the complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere. .

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d’Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d’Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period (1981-2005). Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km2 to 134,960 km2 depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d’Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country’s economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.

Effects of Chlorine and Chlorine Monoxide on Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

This paper presents a system approach of mass balance calculations of ozone and other species under diffusion-convection-reaction processes to study the impacts of major ozone-depleting chemicals, chlorine (Cl) and chlorine monoxide (ClO), and the effect of photolysis on ozone concentrations, ozone depletion, total ozone abundance, and ozone layer along the altitude in the stratosphere. The calculated ozone concentrations and profile of the layer followed a similar trend and were generally in good agreement with the measurements above the tropical area. The calculated peak of the layer was at the same mid-stratosphere at Z = 30 km with a peak concentration and total ozone abundance about 20% higher than the measured peak concentration of 8.0 ppm and total abundance of 399 DU. In the presence of Cl and ClO, the calculated ozone concentrations and total abundance were substantially reduced. Cl generally depleted more uniformly of ozone across the altitude, while ClO reduced substantially the ozone in the upper stratosphere and thus shifted the peak of the layer to a much lower elevation at Z = 14 km. Although both ClO and Cl are active ozone-depleting chemicals, ClO was found to have a more pronounced impact on ozone depletion and distribution than Cl. The possible explanations of these interesting phenomena were discussed and elaborated. The approach and calculations in this paper were shown to be useful in providing an initial insight into the structure and behavior of the complex ozone layer.

Analysis of Temperature Trends and Variations in the Arabian Peninsula’s Upper Atmosphere

In this study, the trends of upper-air temperatures are analysed by utilising radiosonde observations for the barometric levels at 700, 500, 300, 200, 150, 100 and 50 hPa from five meteorological stations within the Arabian Peninsula from January 1986 to August 2015. The mean monthly variations of the temperatures at these levels are characterised and established. The magnitudes of the annual trends of the mean temperatures for each site for the selected barometric levels are studied and statistically tested using Mann-Kendall rank statistics at different significance levels. The temperature trends at different pressure levels show that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are warming, while the middle troposphere is cooling which is consistent with the findings of other studies. The variations in upper air temperature observed in this study can be attributed to a range of factors, including increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, variations in solar activity, aerosols and volcanic eruptions, and land use and land cover change.

Preliminary Model Study for Forecasting a Hot Weather Process in Guangdong Province Using CMA-TRAMS

In this paper, the CMA-TRAMS tropical high-resolution system was used to forecast a typical hot weather process in Guangdong, China with different horizontal resolutions and surface coverage. The results of resolutions of 0.02° and 0.06° were presented with the same surface coverage of the GlobeLand30 V2020, companies with the results of resolution 0.02° with the USGS global surface coverage. The results showed that, on the overall assessment the 2 km model performed better in forecasting 2 m temperature, while the 6 km model was more accurate in predicting 10 m wind speed. In the evaluation of representative stations, the 2 km model performed better in forecasting 2 m temperature and 2 m relative humidity at the coastal stations, and the 2 km model was also better in forecasting 2 m pressure at the representative stations. However, the 6 km model performed better in forecasting 10 m wind speed at the representative stations. Furthermore, the 2 km model, owing to its higher horizontal resolution, presented a more detailed stratification of various meteorological field maps, allowing for a more pronounced simulation of local meteorological element variations. And the use of the surface coverage data of the GlobeLand30 V2020 improved the forecasting of 2 m temperature, and 10 m wind speed compared to the USGS surface coverage data.

Projected Changes in Extreme Event Indices for Alaska

As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .

Nucleation of Supercooled Water by Neutrons: Latitude Dependence and Implications for Cloud Modelling

It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. .

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Variations and Climate Changes Worldwide

This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.

Contribution of Satellite Observations in the Optical and Microphysical Characterization of Aerosols in Burkina Faso, West Africa

In this work, we proceed to an optical and microphysical analysis of the observations reversed by the MODIS, SeaWiFS, MISR and OMI sensors with the aim of proposing the best-adapted airborne sensor for better monitoring of aerosols in Burkina Faso. To this end, a comparison of AOD between satellite observations and in situ measurements at the Ouagadougou site reveals an underestimation of AERONET AOD except for OMI which overestimates them. Also, an inter-comparison done based on the linear regression line representation shows the correlation between the aerosol models incorporated in the airborne sensor inversion algorithms and the aerosol population probed. This can be seen through the correlation coefficients R which are 0.84, 0.64, 0.55 and 0.054 for MODIS, SeaWiFS, MISR and OMI respectively. Furthermore, an optical analysis of aerosols in Burkina Faso by the MODIS sensor from 2001 to 2016 indicates a large spatial and temporal variability of particles strongly dominated by desert dust. This is corroborated by the annual and seasonal cycles of the AOD at 550 nm and the Angström coefficient measured in the spectral range between 412 nm and 470 nm. A zoom on a few sites chosen according to the three climatic zones confirms the majority presence of mineral aerosols in Burkina Faso, whose maxima are observed in spring and summer.

Production of Artificial Fog in the PAVIN Fog and Rain Platform: In Search of Big Droplets Fog

In fog, visibility is reduced. This reduction in visibility is measured by the meteorological optical range (MOR), which is important for studying human perception and various sensors in foggy conditions. The Cerema PAVIN Fog & Rain platform is capable of producing calibrated fog in order to better analyses it and understand its consequences. The problem is that the droplets produced by the platform are not large enough to resemble real fog. This can have a major impact on measurements since the interaction between electromagnetic waves and fog depends on the wavelength and diameter of the droplets. To remedy this, Cerema is building a new platform with new equipment capable of generating fog. This study analyses different nozzles and associated usage parameters such as the type of water used and the pressure used. The aim is to select the best nozzle with the associated parameters for producing large-diameter droplets and therefore more realistic fog.

Levant Drought Occurrence, Lebanon Case

Rainfall data is probably one of the longest-recorded climatic parameters in Lebanon. On the central coast of Lebanon, the Beirut weather station started collecting rainfall data in 1876. However, the recorded data is not available at one data provider source. Published data is found in historical documents but it reaches the early 1970s and then appears a data gap till 1990. Still the data is available, but it might be found to be saved privately. This study investigated the SPI variability on annual time scale between the years 1876 and 2021. The SPI was computed using R-Stat software to compare every year between 1876 and 2021. The majority (about 70% of the years) of the years are near normal in the precipitation rate. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) demonstrated a normal distribution of years. Dry and wet years constitute about 15% of the total 146 years (1876-2021). Extremely dry years might appear in two consecutive years between 50 to 60 years count. After 1991, there were no wet years it was only near normal and few dry years. The last 30 years showed a trend of increasing drought years without any occurrence of wet years. This study demonstrated the importance of keeping records of at least rainfall data and it must be recorded on a daily basis or intensity on time. It is highly important on a managerial basis and for water security reasons to understand the drought event occurrence and investigate the changes in rainfall rates. Climate change scenarios always forecast a decrease in rainfall rates which will not appear without such studies.

Numerical Models and Methods of Atmospheric Parameters Originating in the Formation of the Earth’s Climatic Cycle

Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in2/s for humidity, 2.993 in2/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .

Lightning in a Forest (Wild) Fire: Mechanism at the Molecular Level

The mechanism of lightning that ignites a forest fire and the lightning that occurs above a forest fire are explained at the molecular level. It is based on two phenomena, namely, internal charge separation inside the atmospheric cloud particles and the existence of a layer of positively charged hydrogen atoms sticking out of the surface of the liquid layer of water on the surface of rimers. Strong turbulence-driven collisions of the ice particles and water droplets with the rimers give rise to breakups of the ice particles and water droplets into positively and negatively charged fragments leading to charge separation. Hot weather in a forest contributes to the updraft of hot and humid air, which follows the same physical/chemical processes of normal lightning proposed and explained recently[1]. Lightning would have a high probability of lighting up and burning the dry biological materials in the ground of the forest, leading to a forest (wild) fire. The burning of trees and other plants would release a lot of heat and moisture together with a lot of smoke particles (aerosols) becoming a strong updraft. The condition for creating lightning is again satisfied which would result in further lightning high above the forest wild fire.

Influence of Continental Atmospheric Forcing on the Decadal Variability of the West African Monsoon

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability involves the role of atmospheric dynamics, linked in particular to the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). This article addresses this question by comparing the sets of preindustrial control and historical simulation data from climate models carried out in the framework of the CMIP5 project and observations data over the 20th century. Through multivariate statistical analyses, it was established that decadal modes of ocean variability and decadal variability of Saharan atmospheric dynamics significantly influence decadal variability of monsoon precipitation. These results also suggest the existence of external anthropogenic forcing, which is superimposed on the decadal natural variability inducing an intensification of the signal in the historical simulations compared to preindustrial control simulations. We have also shown that decadal rainfall variability in the Sahel, once the influence of oceanic modes has been eliminated, appears to be driven mainly by the activity of the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) in the central Sahel, and by the structure of the meridional temperature gradient over the inter-tropical Atlantic in the western Sahel.

Preventing the Deluge: Climate Change, the Four Spheres, Interactions, and Causalities

Climate change means water change, and the impacts of climate change cause not only global sea levels to rise, but also elicit dangerous levels of coastal and mainland flooding. This study relates the effects of climate-change-induced sea level risings to several harmful, and sometimes preventable, factors causing floods. One topic discussed here will be the ocean’s current (more specifically, “The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current”) as it continues to warm with increasing temperatures. In addition to discussing the effects of the AMOC, it also relates the increasing causes that are contributing to flooding, plus the proliferation of melt from ice sheets, ice caps, and glaciers, which inevitably contributes to the devastating effects of flooding on coastal communities, destroying habitats and contributing to the extinction of both aquatic and land animals, and even impacting human infrastructure and livelihoods. This examination additionally presents the serious implications that climate change and flooding have had on the planet’s freshwater resources and reserves, which are being further destroyed by the added influx of salt water, causing water to then be treated with aquifers, an energy-intensive and highly expensive process. Lastly, this paper provides several suggested possibilities for curbing some of the harmful effects humans have already had on contributing to climate change, as well as the environmental factors that have further caused dangerous levels of flooding.

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Variability on Cocoa Production in the Western Centre of Cote d’Ivoire during 1979-2010

Climate variability impacts on cocoa production are evaluated for the first time using 31 years (1979-2010) of data from SODEXAM (climate ground- based observations) and the ex-CAISTAB in three main cocoa production regions (Goh, Marahoué, and Haut-Sassandra) in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The work is a contribution to improving the quality of climate services dedicated to cocoa cultivation to ensure producers’ income and improve the yield of the production in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The results show that cocoa production is affected by the changes and variability in climate conditions (i.e. rainfall and temperature). In the Goh region, the increase in cocoa production seems to be mostly related to the augmentation of rainfall amount while in Marahoué, the increase in temperature is identified to have a more significant impact. Over the Haut-Sassandra region, both temperature and rainfall seem to have a considerable effect on the changes in cocoa production. The analysis based on linear regression by least-squares fit shows two characteristic modes (low and high-frequency variability) in the relationships between cocoa production and meteorological conditions suggesting a strong temporal signal impact related to the changes in the emblazoned surfaces. This leads to an important impact of the short-term variations of climate in cocoa production whereas, the influence of the long-term variability in climate on the cocoa yield seems marginal.

Contribution of Climate Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to the Study of Climate Change Impacts on Cocoa Farming in Côte d’Ivoire

In the particular context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields of cocoa production areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to sustainably increase the resilience of all cocoa farming stakeholders to the impacts of climate change. The study was carried out in the central and southern areas of Côte d’Ivoire with a focus on eleven localities that have many communities of cocoa producers and a humid climate. The rainfall and temperature observation data using come from the CRU, they cover the historical period from 1971 to 2000 at 0.5o × 0.5o horizontal scale. As for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, they come from the CORDEX database and cover the 2021-2050 period. The methodology is based on the calculation of climatic indices sensitive to cocoa cultivation which are the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the amount of rain during the rainy season and the maximum temperature above 33℃. The results show that for all the localities studied, indices such as CDD and CWD could experience an increase. In addition, the total amount of rain during the long rainy season (April to June) is calculated on the basis of the threshold of 700 mm representing the minimum annual precipitation during the rainy season necessary for good growth of the cocoa tree. It reveals that for the two scenarios the cumulative rainfall will all be greater than 700 mm. Regarding temperatures, the central and southern areas could have a low number of hot days (temperature greater than or equal to 33℃ which is the tolerable threshold for cocoa cultivation). The eleven localities, therefore, remain favorable areas for cocoa cultivation in terms of climatic conditions based on temperature and rainfall, despite the regional dimension of the effects of climate change and the associated constraints.