Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics

An international bimonthly journal,founded in 2001 as a continuation of Acta Astrophysica Sinica(founded in 1981,ISSN 0253-2379).The Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics (ISSN 1009-9271)is published for the Chinese Astronomical Society and the National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences by the Science Press in Beijing.

CONTENTS

An international bimonthly journal, founded in 2001 as a continuation of Acta Astrophysica Sinica (founded in 1981, ISSN 0253-2379). The Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics (ISSN 1009-9271) is published for the Chinese Astronomical Society and the National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences by the Science Press in Beijing.

The Universe With Bulk Viscosity

Exact solutions for a model with variable G, A and bulk viscosity are obtained. Inflationary solutions with constant (de Sitter-type) and variable energy density are found. An expanding anisotropic universe is found to isotropize during its expansion but a static universe cannot isotropize. The gravitational constant is found to increase with time and the cosmological constant decreases with time as

A Positioning System based on Communication Satellites and the Chinese Area Positioning System(CAPS)

The Chinese Area Positioning System （CAPS） is a positioning system based on satellite communication that is fundamentally different from the 3＂G＂ （GPS, GLONASS and GALILEO） systems. The latter use special-purpose navigation satellites to broadcast navigation information generated on-board to users, while the CAPS transfers ground-generated navigation information to users via the communication satellite. In order to achieve accurate Positioning, Velocity and Time （PVT）, the CAPS employs the following strategies to over- come the three main obstacles caused by using the communication satellite： （a） by real-time following-up frequency stabilization to achieve stable frequency; （b） by using a single carrier in the transponder with 36 MHz band-width to gain sufficient power; （c） by incorporating Decommissioned Geostationary Orbit communication satellite （DGEO）, barometric pressure and Inclined Geostationary Orbit communication satellite （IGSO） to achieve the 3-D posi- tioning. Furthermore, the abundant transponders available on DGEO can be used to realize the large capacity of communication as well as the integrated navigation and communication. With the communication functions incorporated, five new functions appear in the CAPS： （1） combination of navigation and communication; （2） combination of navigation and high accu- racy orbit measurement; （3） combination of navigation message and wide/local area differen- tial processing; （4） combination of the switching of satellites, frequencies and codes; and （5） combination of the navigation message and the barometric altimetry. The CAPS is thereby labelled a PVT5C system of high accuracy. In order to validate the working principle and the performance of the CAPS, a trial system was established in the course of two years at a cost of about 20 million dollars. The trial constellation consists of two GEO satellites located at E87.5° and E110.5°, two DGEOs located at E130° and E142°, as well as barometric altimetry as a virtual satellite. Static and dynamic performance tests were completed for the Eastern, the Western, the Northern, the Southern and the Middle regions of China. The evaluation results are as follows： （1） land static test, plane accuracy range： C/A code, 15-25 m; P code, 5-10 meters; altitude accuracy range, 1- m; （2） land dynamic test, plane accuracy range, C/A code, 15-25 m; P code, 8-10m; （3） velocity accuracy, C/A code, 0.13-0.3 m s-1, P code, 0.15-0.17 m s- 1; （4） timing accuracy, C/A code, 160 ns, P code, 13 ns; （5） timing compared accuracy of Two Way Satellite Time and Frequency Transfer （TWSTFT）, average accuracy, 0.068 ns; （6） random error of the satellite ranging, 10.7 mm; （7） orbit determination accuracy, better than 2 m. The above stated random error is 1σ error. At present, this system is used as a preliminary operational system and a complete system with 3 GEO, 3 DGEO and 3 IGSO is being established.

Support Vector Machine combined with K-Nearest Neighbors for Solar Flare Forecasting

A method combining the support vector machine （SVM） the K-Nearest Neighbors （KNN）, labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year’s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.

Timescale Analysis of Spectral Lags

A technique for timescale analysis of spectral lags performed directly in the time domain is developed. Simulation studies are made to compare the time domain technique with the Fourier frequency analysis for spectral time lags. The time domain technique is applied to studying rapid variabilities of X-ray binaries and γ-ray bursts. The results indicate that in comparison with the Fourier analysis the timescale analysis technique is more powerful for the study of spectral lags in rapid variabilities on short time scales and short duration flaring phenomena.

Optical Design of Multilayer Achromatic Waveplate by Simulated Annealing Algorithm

We applied a Monte Carlo method -- simulated annealing algorithm -- to carry out the design of multilayer achromatic waveplate. We present solutions for three-, six- and ten-layer achromatic waveplates. The optimized retardance settings are found to be 89°51′39″ ± 0°33′37″ and 89°54′46″ ± 0°22′4″ for the six- and ten-layer waveplates, respectively, for a wavelength range from 1000 nm to 1800 nm. The polarimetric properties of multilayer waveplates are investigated based on several numerical experiments. In contrast to previously proposed three-layer achromatic waveplate, the fast axes of the new six- and ten-layer achromatic waveplate remain at fixed angles, independent of the wavelength. Two applications of multilayer achromatic waveplate are discussed, the general-purpose phase shifter and the birefringent filter in the Infrared Imaging Magnetograph （IRIM） system of the Big Bear Solar Observatory （BBSO）. We also checked an experimental method to measure the retardance of waveplates.

A Study of Binary Stellar Population Synthesis of Elliptical Galaxies

We determined the relative stellar ages and metallicities of about 80 elliptical galaxies in both low and high density environments using the latest binary stellar population （BSP） synthesis model and tested the predictions of a recent hierarchical formation model that adopted the new ACDM cosmology. The stellar ages and metallicities were estimated from two high-quality published spectra line indices, the Hβ and [MgFe] indices. The results show that the stellar populations of elliptical galaxies are older than 3.9 Gyr and more metal rich than 0.02. Most of our results are in agreement with the model predictions; （1） elliptical galaxies in denser environment are redder and have older populations than field galaxies; （2） elliptical galaxies with more massive stellar components are redder and have older and more metal rich populations than less massive ones; （3） the most massive galaxies have the oldest and most metal rich stars. However, some of our results differ from the model predictions on the metallicity distributions of low- and high-density elliptical galaxies and the dependence on the distance to the cluster center.

Short-living Supermassive Magnetar Model for the Early X-ray Flares Following Short GRBs

We suggest a short-lived supermassive magnetar model to account for the X-ray flares following short γ-ray bursts. In this model the central engine of the short γ-ray bursts is a supermassive millisecond magnetar, formed in coalescence of double neutron stars. The X-ray flares are powered by the dipole radiation of the magnetar. When the magnetar has lost a significant part of its angular momentum, it collapses to a black hole and the X-ray flares cease abruptly.

The Effect of Solar Activity on the Annual Precipitation in the Beijing Area

Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.

A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.

Fitting formulae for the effects of binary interactions on lick indices and colors of stellar populations

More than about 50% of stars are in binaries, but most stellar population studies take single star stellar population （ssSSP） models, which do not take binary interactions into account. In fact, the integrated peculiarities of ssSSPs are different from those of stellar populations with binary interactions （bsSSPs）. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effects of binary interactions on the Lick indices and colors of populations in detail. We show some formulae for calculating the difference between the Lick indices and colors of bsSSPs, and those of ssSSPs. Twenty-five Lick indices and 12 colors are studied in this work. The results can be conveniently used for calculating the effects of binary interactions on stellar population studies and for adding the effects of binary interactions into present ssSSP models. The electronic data and fortran procedures in the paper can be obtained on request from the authors.

Optical Photometric Observations of 7-Ray Loud Blazars

We report results of our optical photometric observations of ten gamma-ray loud blazers, namely: 0219+428 (3C66A), PKS 0420-014 (OA 129), S5 0716+714, 0754+100 (OI 090.4), 0827+243 (OJ248), 1652+398 (Mrk 501), 2200+420 (BL Lacertae), 2230+114 (CTA 102), 2251+158 (3C 454.3) and 2344+514. The observations were carried out in September-October, 2000 using the 70 cm optical telescope at Abstumani Observatory, Georgia. We found intra-day variations in 0420-014, S5 0716+714, BL Lacertae and CTA 102. A variation of 0.3 magnitude over a time scale of about 3 hours was observed in the R passband in BL Lacertae on JD 2451827. We did not detect any variation in 3C 66A, Mrk 501, or 3C 454.3 during our observations. Nor did we detect any clear evidence of variation in 1ES 2344+514 during our two weeks' observing run of the TeV gamma-ray source.

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.

Gamma-Ray Bursts in the Swift Era

Since the successful launch of NASA＇s dedicated gamma-ray burst （GRB） mission, Swift, the study of cosmological GRBs has entered a new era. Here I review the rapid observational and theoretical progress in this dynamical research field during the first two-year of the Swift mission, focusing on how observational breakthroughs have revolutionized our understanding of the physical origins of GRBs. Besides summarizing how Swift helps to solve some pre-Swift mysteries, I also list some outstanding problems raised by the Swift observations. An outlook of GRB science in the future, especially in the GLAST era, is briefly discussed.

The estimations of four basic parameters for gamma-ray loud blazars

The method used in our previous papers is adopted to estimate four basic parameters （the central black hole mass （M）, the boosting factor （or Doppler factor） （6）, the propagation angle （Φ） and the distance along the axis to the site of the γ-ray production （d）） for 59 γ-ray loud blazars （20 BL Lacertae objects and 39 flat spectrum radio quasars）. The central black hole masses estimated for this sample are in a range of from 107 Me to 109 MG. In the case of black hole mass, there is no clear difference between BL Lacertae objects and flat spectrum radio quasars, which is consistent with the previous results suggesting that the central black hole masses do not play an important role in the evolutionary sequence of blazars.

Measurements of electronic properties of the Miyun 50m Radio Telescope

Measurement results of some properties of the Miyun 50 m radio telescope （MRT50） of the National Astronomical Observatories, such as pointing calibration, antenna beams, system noise temperature, gain and gain variations with elevation are introduced. By using a new de-convolution technique developed by our group, the broadening effect on measured beams caused by the width of art extended radio source has been removed so that we obtained higher accuracy on the measurements of MRT50 beams.