十年树木初成林,尚待开放大气象--艺术学理论学科设立以来的回顾和展望

艺术学理论学科设立十年来,学位授权点数量稳步增加,确立学科性质和学科方向,制订和实施人才培养方案、制订核心课程体系,着力推进学术研究,对全国文艺评论、文化传承创新、艺术管理、文化创意产业等起到了促进作用。但还存在不足或待完善方面:学科主体性不足,学科的核心领域的原创性或突破性成果不够,学科核心课程体系虽已编制但尚待实施,学科的国内国际承认度尚有欠缺。十年树木初成林,枝繁叶茂待来年艺术学理论学科尤需增强学科主体性,争取在艺术理论、艺术史和艺术批评等学科核心领域取得更多原创性和突破性成果,让学科核心课程体系在实施中逐步调整和完善,保持学科的稳定性与开放性的结合,通向开放有度的艺术学理论学科未来。艺术学理论的开放有度的学科战略和四条路径在于,一是以艺术门类研究为基础,二是以跨艺术门类研究为主干,三是以艺术类研究为导向,四是以艺术行业应用为拓展。如此四路并进有望在未来成就其学科大气象。

大气象与小感情:柳永情感主题的另类创作

柳永《乐章集》二百余首作品中,存在三十余首特殊佳作。它们借助割裂的意象、突变的风格、错位的情感,表现出异于花间小词的特殊面貌。尽管这些作品尚未完全脱离情感主题,却已怀有“眼界始大,感慨遂深”的士大夫情怀,可与王安石金陵怀古词、苏轼赤壁怀古词放在同一维度比较。

人生须有大气象

世间万物，气象万千。奔腾的江河，怒放的花朵，变幻的彩云，翱翔的飞禽，无不在浩瀚的天地间释放自我，绽放美丽。

领导干部应有“大气象”

何渭气象？气象是一种形象、一种态势，体现在看待问题的眼界、面对问题的胸襟、处理问题的思路、解决问题的方法，等等。这源于与生俱来的气质，更源于后天的积累和涵养。

读贞观史 感大气象

读书爱读史，尤其读贞观史，深为其大气象所折服，让人不敢轻易动笔墨。

孔子人格美刍议

作为一个具体、鲜活的个体,孔子的整体生命存在表现出一种特有的人格境界。这种境界是一种夫子大气象,是一种独特的人格魅力和风采,蕴涵着丰富的美学意义。孔子人格美可借用我国古代文论中两个特有的美学范畴来概括,即"风"和"骨"。"风"偏重于感情的飘逸和真挚,实为"风清意爽";"骨"偏重于意志的端正和遒劲,实为"刚健遒劲"。两者俱备,即为"风清骨峻"。孔子合而有之,终而遍体光华,如鸾如凤,成为中国审美文化史上一个无可替代、不可或缺的独特文化人格存在。它所透露出来的美感染了后世一代又一代的人们。

五祖法演评述

北宋的中后期,随着道学的成熟,中华思想在日益复杂的社会背景下成功地实现了转型。此对禅宗来说,无疑是一种挑战。根据《古尊宿语录》、《五灯会元》的有关内容来勾勒五祖法演的行迹,说明作为临济宗后嗣之一支杨歧派的三世传人五祖法演,其价值首先在于在禅门内打破门派壁垒,实现自我反思和相互对话;其次,面对挑战,法演能勇敢地找回自己立于社会的角度及参与社会的方式、方法,从而使禅宗成为此转型期一股不可忽视的力量。

The Analysis of the Characteristics of the Dishpan Experiment and the Revolving Motion of Atmosphere

In this paper we summarize the characteristics of the dishpan experiment, the principle of substance revolving, and the scientific basis of the “retrograde wave in only one direction” with respect to weather data and S. C. OuYang＇s articles in which the fundamental questions in the meteorological theory were pointed out. Furthermore, we discuss the systematic changes involving the concept, theory, and method that substance evolves.

STUDY OF THE MODIFICATION OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SCHEMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.

ASSIMILATION OF REAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA WITH THE GSI-HYBRID DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM TO IMPROVE TYPHOON FORECAST

A hybrid GSI （Grid-point Statistical Interpolation）-ETKF （Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter） data assimila- tion system has been recently developed for the WRF （Weather Research and Forecasting） model and tested with simu- lated observations for tropical cyclone （TC） forecast. This system is based on the existing GSI but with ensemble back- ground information incorporated. As a follow-up, this work extends the new system to assimilate real observations to further understand the hybrid scheme. As a first effort to explore the system with real observations, relatively coarse grid resolution （27 km） is used. A case study of typhoon Muifa （2011） is performed to assimilate real observations in- cluding conventional in-situ and satellite data. The hybrid system with flow-dependent ensemble eovariance shows sig- nificant improvements with respect to track forecast compared to the standard GSI system which in theory is three di- mensional variational analysis （3DVAR）. By comparing the analyses, analysis increments and forecasts, the hybrid sys- tem is found to be potentially able to recognize the existence of TC vortex, adjust its position systematically, better de- scribe the asymmetric structure of typhoon Muifa and maintain the dynamic and thermodynamic balance in typhoon ini- tial field. In addition, a cold-start hybrid approach by using the global ensembles to provide flow-dependent error is test- ed and similar results are revealed with those from cycled GSI-ETKF approach.

Effects of Gamma-Ray Irradiation on Dielectric Surface Breakdown of Polybutylene Naphthalate and Polybutylene Terephthalate Under Reduced Pressure

With the increasing application of electric and electronic devices in space and nuclear power stations, the polymeric insulation materials are inevitably exposed to various kinds of environments. Accordingly, it becomes necessary to investigate the effects of the radiation and air pressure on insulation materials. This paper describes the effects of gamma-ray irradiation and reduced pressure on dielectric breakdown of polybutylene naphthalate (PBN) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) by applying a DC pulse voltage. Both PBN and PBT were irradiated in air up to 100 kGy and then up to 1 000 kGy with a dose rate of 10 kGy/h by using a60Co gamma-source. The effects of total dose and reduced pressure on the time to dielectric breakdown and discharge quantity were discussed. Obtained results show that, while increasing the total dose, the discharge quantity decreased with PBN, but increased with PBT. With decreasing the air pressure, the discharge quantity increased with PBN, but decreased with PBT. With increasing the total dose, the time to dielectric breakdown increased with PBN, but decreased with PBT. With decreasing the air pressure, the time to dielectric breakdown increased with both PBN and PBT. The experimental results suggest that the chemical structure of polybutylene polymers plays a main role in the result of radiation reaction, which is related to cross-linking and degradation reaction.

A SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS STUDY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE OBSERVED BY GOSAT SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

The variation of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide （CO2） concentration plays an important role in global cli- mate and agriculture. We analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of CO2 in the China region and around the globe with the CO2 column mixing ratios observed by the Japanese GOSAT satellite （Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite）. In order to make sure that the accuracy of the CO2 data retrieved by the satellite meets the needs of the climate charac- teristics analyses, we ran a validation on the CO2 column mixing ratios retrieved by the satellite against the ground-based TCCON （Total Carbon Column Observing Network） observation data. The result shows that the two sets of data have a correlation coefficient of higher than 0.7, and a bias of within 2.2 ppmv. Therefore, the GOSAT CO2 da- ta can be used for the climate characteristics analysis of global CO2. Our analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the CO2 column mixing ratios observed during the period of June 2009 through January 2014 proved that, with the impact of the natural emission of near ground CO2 and human activities, the global CO2 concentration has a significant latitudinal characteristics with its highest level averaging 390 oomv in the 0-40？N latitudinal zone in the Northern Hemisphere, and 387 ppmv in the Southern Hemisphere. China has a relatively higher CO2 concentration with the highest level exceeding 398 ppmv, and the eastern area higher than the western area. The variation of global CO2 concentration shows a seasonal pattern, i.e. the CO2 concen- tration reaches its highest in spring in the Northern Hemisphere averaging more than 392 ppmv, second highest in win- ter, and lowest in summer averaging less than 387 ppmv. It fluctuates the most in the Northern Hemisphere with an av- erage concentration of 392.5 ppmv in April, and 385.5 ppmv in July. While in the Southern Hemisphere, the seasonal fluctuation is smaller with the highest concentration occurring in July. Over the recent years, the global CO2 concentra- tion has shown an elevating trend with an average annual increase rate of 1.58 ppmv per year. It is a challenge that the human kind has to face to slow down the increase of the CO2 concentration.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON LONGWANG(2005) WITH THE SPECTRUM NUDGING TECHNIQUE

With the Weather Research and Forecasting model （WRFV3.2.1）, the application of specmun nudging tech- niques in numerical simulation of the genesis and development of typhoon Longwang （2005） is evaluated in this work via four numerical experiments with different nudging techniques. It is found that, due to the ability to capture the large-scale fields and to keep the meso-to small-scale features derived from the model dynamics, the experiment with spectrum nudging technique can simulate the formation, intensification and motion of Longwang properly. The improve- ment on the numerical simulation of Longwang induced by the spectrum nudging depends on the nudging coefficients. A weak spectrum nudging does not make significant improvement on the simulation of Longwang. Although the experi- ment with four-dimensional data assimilation, i.e., FDDA, also derives the genesis and movement of Longwang appro- priately, it fails to simulate the intensifying process of Longwang properly. The reason is that, as the large-scale features derived from the model are nudged to the observational data, the meso- to small-processes produced by the model dy- namics important to the intensification of typhoon are nearly smoothed by FDDA.

CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION OF OLR OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT WITH ITS POSSIBLE LINKAGE TO SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Using the 1979-2009 NCEP/NACR reanalysis data and precipitation records in East China, research is performed of the climatological features of low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in OLR over the Maritime Continent(MC) as well as their associations with precipitation disturbance in the eastern part of China. Results suggest that in the MC there is significant climatological low-frequency oscillation(CLFO) in outgoing long-wave radiation(OLR), with the intraseasonal oscillation(30-60 days) being the strongest for April-September, and the MC acting as a high-value region of percentage contributions of low-frequency OLR variance. On the low-frequency time scale there occur four events of more intense active OLR during this time interval. In the January-April(May-August) phase, MC convection is relatively weak(vigorous). The CLFO makes pronounced eastward displacement at tropics, with phase propagation seen longitudinally, too. There occur low-frequency disturbance circulations similar to the EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection,starting from the MC via the South China Sea and the Philippines to the Yangtze valley of China. At different phases,the variation in the low-frequency circulations and heating fields shows that the rainfall disturbance in eastern China is likely to be under possible effects of the CLFO from the MC in April-September, and the low-frequency heating variation exhibits a meridional pattern as an EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection. As the OLR CLFO is in a peak(valley)phase the low-level divergence or convergence with the reversal at high levels over the MC is related to relatively feeble(robust) low frequency convection, thereby exciting an EAP or P-J wavetrain from the MC to the Sea of Japan. At the higher levels, the South-Asian high is eastward(westward) of normal due to effects of low-frequency cyclones(anticyclones), resulting in less(more) rainfall in the Jiangnan(areas in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze and to the south of the river) and Hetao(the Great Bend of Yellow River) areas, and increased(decreased) rainfall in SW China,Qinghai Plateau and Gansu. At the conversion phases, low-frequency convection becomes more active in parts of the MC, consequently exciting low-frequency wavetrain of cyclones-anticyclones-cyclones at low levels, making the South-Asian high southward of the mean, so that strong convergent zones emerge in the upper and middle Yangtze basins and Jilin of NE China, responsible for plentiful precipitation there in sharp contrast to the rainfall over the band between the Yellow and Huaihe Rivers and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. These results help understand in depth the climatological LFO characteristics and the phase-locked feature, thereby further improving our understanding of the causes of rainfall disturbances in different parts of the country.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON MULTI-LEVEL STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC BALANCE CONSTRAINTS IN GRAPES-3DVAR

This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January(winter) and July(summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy and bring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.

THE EFFECTS OF THE PLATEAU'S TOPOGRAPHIC GRADIENT ON ROSSBY WAVES AND ITS NUMERICAL SIMULATION

By using barotropic model equations, this article analyzed the characteristics of Rossby waves, the propaga- tion features of wave energy and the influence of dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Rossby waves, and the focus is on discussing the plateau＇s topographic gradient effects on atmospheric Rossby waves. Then based on the WRF3.2 and the NCEP/NCAR FNL reanalysis data, we devised comparative tests of changing the plateau＇s topo- graphic gradient and simulated a process of persistent heavy rain that happened in May 2010 in South China. The re- sults are shown as follows. The Tibetan Platean＇s topography is conducive to the formation of atmospheric Rossby waves, while the platean＇s terrain, its friction and heating effects can all make the atmospheric Rossby waves develop into the planetary waves; The effects of platean＇s north and south slopes on the Rossby wave＇ phase velocity is opposite, and when the slope reached a certain value can the quasi-steady normal fluctuations be generated; Simultaneously, due to the plateau＇s topographic gradient, descending motion appears at the west side of the plateau while ascending motion appears at the east side, and the vertical movement increased with the amplification of topographic gradients. The plateau＇s topographic gradient also obviously amplified the precipitation in South China, and the rainfall area increased with the amplification of topographic gradients and gradually moved from south to north and from west to east, which is conducive to the occurrence and development of convective activities in the downstream areas of the Tibetan Plateau; Moreover, for the plateau＇s dynamic and thermal effects, the Rossby wave＇ propagation shows upstream effects of ener- gy dispersion, so the plateau can then affect the weather in downstream areas. Moreover, the wave group velocity in- creased with the degree of topographic slope.

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr(1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season(April to June),the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator(MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive(negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3(phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.

VARIATIONAL ITERATION SOLVING METHOD FOR SEA-AIR OSCILLATOR MODEL OF INTERDECADAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a simple and valid method. In this paper the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is considered. Firstly, through introducing a set of functions, and computing the variations, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized expressions of variational iteration are constructed. Finally, through selecting appropriate initial iteration from the iteration expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator model are solved successively.