A new grey forecasting model based on BP neural network and Markov chain was proposed. In order to combine the grey forecasting model with neural network, an important theorem that the grey differential equation is eq...A new grey forecasting model based on BP neural network and Markov chain was proposed. In order to combine the grey forecasting model with neural network, an important theorem that the grey differential equation is equivalent to the time response model, was proved by analyzing the features of grey forecasting model（GM（1,1））. Based on this, the differential equation parameters were included in the network when the BP neural network was constructed, and the neural network was trained by extracting samples from grey system＇s known data. When BP network was converged, the whitened grey differential equation parameters were extracted and then the grey neural network forecasting model （GNNM（1,1）） was built. In order to reduce stochastic phenomenon in GNNM（1,1）, the state transition probability between two states was defined and the Markov transition matrix was established by building the residual sequences between grey forecasting and actual value. Thus, the new grey forecasting model（MNNGM（1,1）） was proposed by combining Markov chain with GNNM（1,1）. Based on the above discussion, three different approaches were put forward for forecasting China electricity demands. By comparing GM（1, 1） and GNNM（1,1） with the proposed model, the results indicate that the absolute mean error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.4 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.2 times of GM（I, 1）, and the mean square error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.25 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.1 times of GM（1,1）.展开更多
Nowadays human society enters the 21st century, with the rapid economic and technological development, people＇s material and spiritual requirements has got great satisfaction. However, natural environmental damage br...Nowadays human society enters the 21st century, with the rapid economic and technological development, people＇s material and spiritual requirements has got great satisfaction. However, natural environmental damage brought by us is also accelerating. Natural disasters happen frequently, including ecological degradation and deterioration, energy resources crisis, greenhouse effect, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes etc. The global crisis has once again waken-up call to mankind. How to properly solve these crises had become a common and urgent responsibility of mankind. This paper will mainly discuss and seek some new potential methods in solving energy crisis and environmental problems from the perspective of automotive and architecture design. As an architect, how to avoid light pollution and reduce heat absorption of roof, increasing heat reflectance of roof are becoming their main and urgent responsibilities. On the other hand, reducing greenhouse effect, researching and developing new low-carbon, low-emission fuel sources are also becoming automotive designers＇ obligations. Living in harmony with nature ＆ earth is becoming the common human themes of the 21 st century.展开更多
In this paper I examine the following claims by William Eaton in his monograph Boyle on Fire： （i） that Boyle＇s religious convictions led him to believe that the world was not completely explicable, and this shows ...In this paper I examine the following claims by William Eaton in his monograph Boyle on Fire： （i） that Boyle＇s religious convictions led him to believe that the world was not completely explicable, and this shows that there is a shortcoming in the power of mechanical explanations; （ii） that mechanical explanations offer only sufficient, not necessary explanations, and this too was taken by Boyle to be a limit in the explanatory power of mechanical explanations; （iii） that the mature Boyle thought that there could be more intelligible explanatory models than mechanism; and （iv） that what Boyle says at any point in his career is incompatible with the statement of Maria Boas-Hall, i.e., that the mechanical hypothesis can explicate all natural phenomena. Since all four of these claims are part of Eaton＇s developmental argument, my rejection of them will not only show how the particular developmental story Eaton diagnoses is inaccurate, but will also explain what limits there actually are in Boyle＇s account of the intelligibility of mechanical explanations. My account will also show why important philosophers like Locke and Leibniz should be interested in Boyle＇s philosophical work.展开更多
Mechanisms of animal learning and memory were traditionally studied without reference to niche-specific functional considerations. More recently, ecological demands have informed such investigations, most notably with...Mechanisms of animal learning and memory were traditionally studied without reference to niche-specific functional considerations. More recently, ecological demands have informed such investigations, most notably with respect to foraging in birds. In parallel, behavioural ecologists, primarily concerned with functional optimization, have begun to consider the role of mechanistic factors, including cognition, to explain apparent deviations from optimal predictions. In the present paper we discuss the application of laboratory-based constructs and paradigms of cognition to the real-world challenges faced by avian foragers. We argue that such applications have been handicapped by what we term the ＇paradigmatic assumption＇ - the assumption that a given laboratory paradigm maps well enough onto a congruent cognitive mechanism （or cognitive ability） to justify confiation of the two. We present evidence against the paradigmatic assumption and suggest that to achieve a profitable integration between function and mechanism, with respect to animal cognition, a new conceptualization of cognitive mechanisms - functional cogni- tion - is required. This new conceptualization should define cognitive mechanisms based on the informational properties of the animal＇s environment and the adaptive challenges faced. Cognitive mechanisms must be examined in settings that mimic the im- portant aspects of the natural environment, using customized tasks designed to probe defined aspects of the mechanisms＇ opera- tion. We suggest that this approach will facilitate investigations of the functional and evolutionary relevance of cognitive mecha- nisms, as well as the patterns of divergence, convergence and specialization of cognitive mechanisms within and between species .展开更多
基金Project(70572090) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new grey forecasting model based on BP neural network and Markov chain was proposed. In order to combine the grey forecasting model with neural network, an important theorem that the grey differential equation is equivalent to the time response model, was proved by analyzing the features of grey forecasting model（GM（1,1））. Based on this, the differential equation parameters were included in the network when the BP neural network was constructed, and the neural network was trained by extracting samples from grey system＇s known data. When BP network was converged, the whitened grey differential equation parameters were extracted and then the grey neural network forecasting model （GNNM（1,1）） was built. In order to reduce stochastic phenomenon in GNNM（1,1）, the state transition probability between two states was defined and the Markov transition matrix was established by building the residual sequences between grey forecasting and actual value. Thus, the new grey forecasting model（MNNGM（1,1）） was proposed by combining Markov chain with GNNM（1,1）. Based on the above discussion, three different approaches were put forward for forecasting China electricity demands. By comparing GM（1, 1） and GNNM（1,1） with the proposed model, the results indicate that the absolute mean error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.4 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.2 times of GM（I, 1）, and the mean square error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.25 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.1 times of GM（1,1）.
文摘Nowadays human society enters the 21st century, with the rapid economic and technological development, people＇s material and spiritual requirements has got great satisfaction. However, natural environmental damage brought by us is also accelerating. Natural disasters happen frequently, including ecological degradation and deterioration, energy resources crisis, greenhouse effect, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes etc. The global crisis has once again waken-up call to mankind. How to properly solve these crises had become a common and urgent responsibility of mankind. This paper will mainly discuss and seek some new potential methods in solving energy crisis and environmental problems from the perspective of automotive and architecture design. As an architect, how to avoid light pollution and reduce heat absorption of roof, increasing heat reflectance of roof are becoming their main and urgent responsibilities. On the other hand, reducing greenhouse effect, researching and developing new low-carbon, low-emission fuel sources are also becoming automotive designers＇ obligations. Living in harmony with nature ＆ earth is becoming the common human themes of the 21 st century.
文摘In this paper I examine the following claims by William Eaton in his monograph Boyle on Fire： （i） that Boyle＇s religious convictions led him to believe that the world was not completely explicable, and this shows that there is a shortcoming in the power of mechanical explanations; （ii） that mechanical explanations offer only sufficient, not necessary explanations, and this too was taken by Boyle to be a limit in the explanatory power of mechanical explanations; （iii） that the mature Boyle thought that there could be more intelligible explanatory models than mechanism; and （iv） that what Boyle says at any point in his career is incompatible with the statement of Maria Boas-Hall, i.e., that the mechanical hypothesis can explicate all natural phenomena. Since all four of these claims are part of Eaton＇s developmental argument, my rejection of them will not only show how the particular developmental story Eaton diagnoses is inaccurate, but will also explain what limits there actually are in Boyle＇s account of the intelligibility of mechanical explanations. My account will also show why important philosophers like Locke and Leibniz should be interested in Boyle＇s philosophical work.
文摘Mechanisms of animal learning and memory were traditionally studied without reference to niche-specific functional considerations. More recently, ecological demands have informed such investigations, most notably with respect to foraging in birds. In parallel, behavioural ecologists, primarily concerned with functional optimization, have begun to consider the role of mechanistic factors, including cognition, to explain apparent deviations from optimal predictions. In the present paper we discuss the application of laboratory-based constructs and paradigms of cognition to the real-world challenges faced by avian foragers. We argue that such applications have been handicapped by what we term the ＇paradigmatic assumption＇ - the assumption that a given laboratory paradigm maps well enough onto a congruent cognitive mechanism （or cognitive ability） to justify confiation of the two. We present evidence against the paradigmatic assumption and suggest that to achieve a profitable integration between function and mechanism, with respect to animal cognition, a new conceptualization of cognitive mechanisms - functional cogni- tion - is required. This new conceptualization should define cognitive mechanisms based on the informational properties of the animal＇s environment and the adaptive challenges faced. Cognitive mechanisms must be examined in settings that mimic the im- portant aspects of the natural environment, using customized tasks designed to probe defined aspects of the mechanisms＇ opera- tion. We suggest that this approach will facilitate investigations of the functional and evolutionary relevance of cognitive mecha- nisms, as well as the patterns of divergence, convergence and specialization of cognitive mechanisms within and between species .
