China-US Trade War and Its Future

The Trump administration's hostile trade actions against China since the beginning of this year violate World Trade Organization rules. To protect the free trade world economic system, China has stood up to fight this trade bullying. When the US administration continued with harsher actions, the escalation in trade friction increased the potential harm for both countries. China has been very clear that Trump's trade tariffs cannot improve the bilateral trade imbalance. Tit-for-tat ought to be a last resort but China is open to talking. Now the ball is in Trump's court. As two big,influential economies, China and the US should calm down and go back to negotiating table to avoid a trade war trap. Bullying is only one approach President Trump can choose, but arbitrary threats are no solution.

Escaping Dependency and Trade War:China and the US

Marxist political economy provides a perspective for grasping the root cause of the China-US trade war.The international relations of production,which stem from the international division of labor,shape the distribution of international economic interests and the political status of countries.Traditionally,developing countries have been subjected to the“periphery”in the international division of labor.In the new global value chain,developing countries have remained in a subordinate position characterized by“technological-market”dependence.To achieve the goal of building a strong modern nation,China must escape the“technological-market”dependence.Yet China’s efforts and achievements in escaping dependent development are deemed as a threat to US vested interests in the international markets.To preserve the economic foundation of its hegemony,the US has resorted to a trade war to contain China’s development.

China-US Trade Relations:Win-Win Picture Distorted

At present China-U.S.trade relations are in a state of confusion.Although both countries have gained tremendous benefits from the bilateral trade relationship,some Americans have intentionally distorted some basic facts regarding China-U.S.trade relations. Based on an analysis of some official and nonofficial research reports published in the United States,this article holds that the China-U.S.trade imbalance is the symptom of a bigger issue stemming from the contradiction between the United States as the world's sole superpower and China as an emerging power.Economic globalisation came about due to the needs of western developed countries represented by the United States to boost economic development.Only by seizing the opportunities of economic globalisation, has China gained strong economic growth. Such a development is changing the world political,economic,military and cultural landscape that have been shaped since the post-cold-war era,and has to some extent raised doubt or suspicion on the part of the United States and its western allies.This is a manifestation of how unprepared some people in the United States and other western countries are in the face of China's rapid development and rising status.So,their immediate reaction has been to seek protection for themselves,and try their utmost to prevent China's rapid growth from impacting on the international framework and their vested interests.

China-US High-Tech Competition,Trade Conflict and Development Rights

The power and interest of industrial manufacturers are determined by their status in the relations of production.At the international level,countries see their economic and political status rise only when they climb the ladder in the international division of labor.As the primary production forces,science and technology are the main drivers behind such change.As new technologies give rise to new industries and restructure the international division of labor,developed countries strive to enhance the protection of their intellectual property rights(IPR)and safeguard their monopoly over core technologies.For developed countries,technological prowess holds the key to their supremacy in the global supply chain and international relations.The 19 th CPC National Congress makes clear the overarching goal in the new era is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation and turn China into a strong modern country.As an important material condition for achieving this goal,China must transition from being medium-and low-end links in the international division of labor to becoming high-end links.In this process,China will encounter backlash from developed countries that lead in the international division of labor.The recent China-US tussle over trade in high-tech goods is a case in point,and should be viewed through the lens of the relations of production and the international division of labor.The insights thus achieved will be of great significance to China’s future development.

Trumponomics and China-US Economic and Trade Relations

Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country＇s current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.

A Review of China-US Economic and Trade Relations (2007-2015)

In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 saw non-stop progress in China and US trade and economic ties. The China-US interdependent and complementary economic and trade connections ensure that bilateral relations are constantly developing and merging following their interdependent paths;the global challenges, such as the financial crisis and recent extreme weather events, have allowed China and the US to be in the same boat,weathering these different forms of turbulence. Decisions on important domestic policies and disputes can now be discussed earlier and effectively following on from the construction of multi-dimensional crisis management mechanisms. But undeniably there are unsettled and conflicting points in their relations, such as the fact that the US strategically excludes China from its free trade agenda, not willing to accept many everyday items manufactured by China. This is a major obstacle preventing their relationships deepening. History tells us, in future, if both sides could have a bigger vision, relations would better develop, for the new type of major power relations and the subsequent road would be less rocky and bring more benefits for the peoples of both countries.

CO_2 Emissions Embodied in China-U.S.Trade

After the Kyoto Protocol was implemented,carbon leakage exerts great influences on international trade and economy.Trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries.China has overtaken the U.S.as the world's biggest CO2 emitter since 2006.As China's second largest trade partner,the U.S.has the biggest trade deficit with China which has aroused a lot of disputes between the two parties.But so far the assessments of the trade imbalance of China-U.S.have paid little attention to environmental impacts associated with the trade imbalance.Applied an input-output approach,the article estimates the amount of CO2 embodied in China-U.S.trade during 1997-2007.It was found that through trade with China,the U.S.reduced its CO2 emissions compared with a non-trade scenario.Due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry,China-U.S.trade resulted in more CO2 emissions in China and the world.In the end,the article gives some suggestions:it is equal and sustainable that the international accounting methodologies should be improved,for CO2 emissions responsibility must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade.

China-U.S. Trade Balance from the National Income Perspective

This paper calculates the China-U.S. trade balance from the national income perspective based on an input-output model that differentiates domestic and foreign-invested companies. The result shows that due to different degrees of dependence of both countries on foreign production factors such as foreign capital for the manufacturing of export goods,only 87.7% of the domestic value-added created by China's exports to the U.S. in 2012 was China's national income, whereas 96.2% of value-added in U.S. exports to China was U.S.national income. In the comparison of total export volume and export value-added, the home country's national income created by exports can more realistically reflect a country's gains from trade. In 2012, China's trade surplus with the U.S. stood at 102.8 billion US dollars in national income terms, which is 61% and 22% smaller than the results in gross and value-added terms, respectively. The implication is that the traditional trade balance accounting method seriously exaggerates the China-U.S. trade imbalance.

Embodied Pollution in China-U.S.Trade——An Empirical Study Based on Estimation of Input-Output Technology Matrix

Using input-output tables of China and the U.S., this paper has calculated the pollution embodied in trade and structure of pollution, the balance of emissions embodied in trade （BEET） and the pollution terms of trade （PTT） for 18 manufacturing sectors of China and the US. between 2001 and 2010. The calculation aims to verify whether China has become a ＂pollution haven＂ in bilateral trade with developed countries represented by the U.S., and whether Chinese exports are ＂dirtier＂ compared with imports from the U.S., and further conducting an industry structure analysis and effect decomposition study on pollution embodied in trade in industrial goods between China and U.S.. Result of our research indicates that according to our calculation of the BEET, China remains a country with environmental deficits in bilateral trade with the U.S. while the gaps between pollution embodied in China＇s export and import are narrowing. Pollution embodied in China＇s export has the tendency of increase before decline while pollution embodied in import demonstrates no significant tendency of decline. Through effect decomposition, we further found that the effect of technology arising from the substantial decline of pollution intensity effectively lowered pollution embodied in export and narrowed the environmental deficits of China in its bilateral trade. The effect of scale arising from growing export volumes significantly increased China＇s environmental deficits while the structural effect arising from changes in the structure of import and export is insignificant in reducing environmental deficits. Our calculation of the PTT led to the finding that China＇s export goods are more pollution intensive compared with import goods and that the structure of US exports to China is cleaner than the structure of Chinese exports to the US., which requires further improvements of China＇s import and export structure.

TRADE WAR AND AMERICAN STRATEGIC TREND TOWARDS CHINA

Since 2018,the Trump administra-tion has imposed 25% tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion US dollars and 10%tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods on the grounds of the US huge trade deficit with China,China's infringements onUS intellectual property rights,and unfair competition from China.The US has launched an unprecedented tradewar with China by imposing tariffs.

PROSPECTS OF CHINA-U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE

The China—U.S.Agricultural CooperationAgreement is a prelude to China’s accessionto the World Trade Organization(WTO).The basic framework is built,though someDarts are still to be discussed.From a macro prospective,the exportVolume of U.S.agricultural products to Chinawill increase,and vise versa.But the sharein the total trade Volume is dropping.Firstly,no matter how flexible

Progress Made on China-U.S.Trade Relationship at the 22nd JCCT Session

China and the United States concluded the 22nd session of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) on November 21 in Chengdu, China. Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan cochaired the two-day meeting with U.S. Secretary of Commerce John Bryson and U.

China-U.S. Relations and International Trade

Dr.Elliot Feldman on April 15,2010 presented the following speech at AmCham-China's Conference of the Asia-Pacific Council of American Chambers of Commerce(APCAC).With his kind approval,China Textile publishes his study and views focused on the title as captioned above.The article expresses the author's own stance.

Marketization the Key to Solving China-U.S. Trade Imbalance

China-U.S.trade has expanded rapidly over the past three decades,during which China’s trade deficit has turned into atrade surplus.China’s exports to the United States account for 20 percent of China’s total export trade,but the United States’exports to China make up less than 10 percent of its export trade.The trade dependence ratio of the two countries has adifference of up to 27 percentage points.While China’s economy and foreign trade become increasingly market-oriented,the U.S.implements long-term export restriction policies against it.Raising the degree of marketization of trade betweenChina and the U.S.is the key to redressing the China-U.S.trade imbalance.

贸易猜忌问题的六种思想解决方案

根据英国政治思想史家伊斯特凡·洪特的研究,贸易的猜忌是在贸易已经成为国家核心事务的时代,霍布斯主义的国家猜忌在国际竞争中的特定表现形式。从政治与经济的相互依赖开始成为政治理论核心议题的18世纪开始,直到19世纪,诸如马克思等思想家们关于贸易猜忌问题的应对之道可以分为六种类型:农业国方案、封闭商业国方案、贸易势力均衡方案、富国长优方案、欧盟方案和共产主义方案。它们形成了从政治逻辑主导到经济逻辑主导的连续谱。这六种思想方案对于我们思考今天的国际政治经济困境及其出路仍然具有重要的启发意义。

从国际粮食问题会议到世界贸易暨就业组织会议——中国与战后国际经济秩序的重建

盟国重建战后国际经济秩序的努力始于1943年国际粮食问题会议,其后又历经布雷顿森林会议、世界贸易暨就业组织会议,最终搭建了战后国际经济秩序的框架。从国际粮食问题会议起,中国参与了国际经济秩序重建的全过程。虽然并不具备足够的经济实力,但中国仍在若干重要规则上为发展中国家发声建言,尽可能为工业落后国家争取了一定的发展环境。很大程度上,中国在国际经济问题上的发言权得益于政治上的四强地位。

特朗普政府及新冠疫情对全球经济的影响回顾——聚焦中美关系

由于美国前总统特朗普的“美国优先”对华政策,2018年开始的中美贸易战以及随后的新冠疫情促使中美贸易摩擦尖锐化。这场因贸易逆差引发的冲突不仅升级为两国之间的关税争端,还扩大到知识产权争端、不公平产业政策、技术霸权、国家安全风险、人权问题、国家体制和意识形态问题等。2021年上台的美国拜登政府尝试扩展以民主价值观为纽带的联盟体系,制衡发展中的中国。另一方面,中国希望通过自身努力实现国内产业结构升级,提出“一带一路”倡议推动国际合作。世界经济正朝着形成独立经济集团的方向发展,中美两国在争夺先进战略产业和企业的同时,也有可能诞生一个新的经济集团。政治上意识形态的冲突将加剧,但在全球经济领域,中美两国之间的竞争将推动围绕“一带一路”倡议的非洲—欧亚经济基础设施的发展。

外部冲击对中国粮食安全的影响及对策

保障粮食和农产品稳定安全供给是建设农业强国的头等大事。世界环境复杂多变,金融危机、中美贸易战以及全球新冠疫情等外部环境影响中国粮食安全。本研究将3次外部冲击分别定义为经济波动、对外关系与自然灾害,比较分析了3次外部冲击对中国粮食安全的影响,短期来看,外部冲击一定程度上对中国粮价和粮食贸易造成波动,但长期来看影响有限。在应对措施方面,通过国内宏观经济的调控、支农补贴政策、多边谈判、关税政策、全国范围内的统筹协调、粮食结构调整、逐步完善的预警机制以及不断提高的农业配送条件,保障了中国粮食市场的均衡。为应对外部环境变化确保中国粮食长久安全,应优化粮食供给结构,提高应对外部突发事件的能力,维护稳定经贸关系,逐步开拓新兴市场。

Analyzing the Impacts on East Asia of Trump’s Potential Return

The 2024 election is a pivotal and highly contested event in the United States.Donald Trump is expected to compete against Joe Biden without any doubts.A potential return of Trump to the White House would likely cause significant reactions in East Asia,particularly among the three major countries in the region.This analysis will explore the detailed implications of Trump’s return.

一战时期中美棉花贸易的发展

棉花是中国重要的农产品之一,自古以来,中国不断改进生产技术,扩大棉花种植面积,近代时棉花的质量和产量都出现一定程度的提高。第一次世界大战期间,中美棉花贸易蓬勃发展,究其原因是由于欧洲市场的缺失,美国市场地位的提高,其他国家竞争力的下降,以及中国一大批先进资产阶级实业家积极投身棉业等多方因素造成的。当然进步之外,仍存在一些问题,如中美贸易关系的不平等及中国产业结构较弱等。总的来说,中国在第一次世界大战期间抓住时机积极参与国际市场,促进了国家贸易发展,对中国的民族资本主义经济发展和对外贸易的改善都产生了长远影响。