Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects ofChina's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application ofCMRCGE model

This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.

Regional Renewable Energy Optimization Based on Economic Benefits and Carbon Emissions

With increasing renewable energy utilization,the industry needs an accurate tool to select and size renewable energy equipment and evaluate the corresponding renewable energy plans.This study aims to bring new insights into sustainable and energy-efficient urban planning by developing a practical method for optimizing the production of renewable energy and carbon emission in urban areas.First,we provide a detailed formulation to calculate the renewable energy demand based on total energy demand.Second,we construct a dual-objective optimization model that represents the life cycle cost and carbon emission of renewable energy systems,after which we apply the differential evolution algorithmto solve the optimization result.Finally,we conduct a case study in Qingdao,China,to demonstrate the effectiveness of this optimizationmodel.Compared to the baseline design,the proposedmodel reduced annual costs and annual carbon emissions by 14.39%and 72.65%,respectively.These results revealed that dual-objective optimization is an effective method to optimize economic benefits and reduce carbon emissions.Overall,this study will assist energy planners in evaluating the impacts of urban renewable energy projects on the economy and carbon emissions during the planning stage.

Review of Carbon Emissions Trading Production Model and Research on Its Applications in China

With the Kyoto Protocol entering into effect in many countries one after another,carbon trading has come into being and developed quickly.China is the main supplier of carbon emissions rights in the world,but such transactions are still in the stage of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects without its own trading system,which is not conducive for China to win the rights of carbon pricing in the international market.Low-carbon and emissions reduction is the international trend nowadays,and therefore,it is particularly necessary and urgent to investigate the issue of carbon trading in China.In this paper,the authors have reviewed Putty-Clay Vintage,which is a model of production function for carbon trading,revealing the main points,contributions and shortcomings of the model.Combined with China's national conditions,the authors have investigated the application of this model in China's carbon trading from four different angles,including enterprise production optimization,financial market development,national macro-economy,and the allocation of emission quota.This study aims to provide China's enterprises with an analytical framework when participating in carbon trading in the future and it is beneficial for them to make optimal production planning when considering the cost of carbon emissions reduction.

Implement of Low Carbon Logistics Park Based on Minimizing Carbon Emissions

Based on the development of modem logistics park in China, and with the thought of minimizing carbon emission, the development of Logistics Park was analyzed and the necessity of developing low carbon Logistics Park was proposed. Low carbon emission in Logistics Park was planned. In the end, operation and implementation strategies of low carbon parks were put forward so as to create favorable environment for the re- alization of low carbon emission in Logistics Park.

零碳园区研究综述及展望

园区作为国民生产、生活的重要载体,提供了大量的能源生产活动和基础服务设施,同时也成为碳排放的重要源头。园区物理界限分明,生态系统独立,运营管理权明晰,使得园区成为践行碳中和的天然试验田。首先,介绍零碳园区的典型构成,并对其净零碳能力进行分析;其次,从物理层、信息层、平台层、应用层4个层面分析零碳园区发展形态,提出园区零碳操作系统的架构;然后,对零碳园区的关键技术进行分析,从园区碳排放核算技术、园区低碳经济体系、园区低碳管控技术3个方面对零碳园区的研究现状进行总结,同时分析现有研究的不足和未来研究方向;最后,提出零碳园区研究的挑战与展望。

计及短期运行灵活性的城市能源系统扩展规划

城市是能源消费与碳排放的主力.在“双碳”背景下,促进城市能源系统低碳转型已成为当前城市规划的首要任务.然而,在新能源出力占比增加的同时,系统的灵活性需求也随之增加.为此,提出一种考虑长短期不确定性的城市能源系统扩展规划模型,涵盖电、气、热多种能源形态,在规划的层面计及实时运行阶段的不确定性及运行灵活性,并采用随机优化方法进行求解.模型考虑新能源机组和能源枢纽中各类能源转换设备的容量扩建,通过施加碳排放配额约束来确保达成碳减排目标.算例结果表明,该模型能有效提高城市能源系统的经济性和新能源消纳率,并且可以满足不同的碳减排需求.

低碳驱动下粮食转运枢纽选址及路径优化研究

为降低粮食运输的碳排放量,提高粮食运输效率,保障粮食运输安全,从定量分析的角度,构建低碳驱动下粮食转运枢纽选址-路径优化模型,并设计改进遗传算法对该模型求解,对中国现有粮食运输网络布局进行改进和优化,并选取粮食物流重点线路上的部分省会城市进行分析验证。结果表明:研究构建的轴辐式多式联运网络枢纽节点选址-路径优化模型及算法,可使粮食运输总成本降低13.87%,碳排放量降低11.70%,枢纽的平均转运饱和度提升9.66%。该方法适用于实际粮食运输过程,可实现粮食低碳高效运输,为低碳驱动下中国粮食转运枢纽选址及路径规划提供参考。

基于CiteSpace分析的国内外乡村碳排放研究进展与展望

文章采用CiteSpace软件对国内外乡村碳排放研究进展进行可视化分析,旨在为明晰规划减排目标与技术路径提供支撑。结果表明:国内外相关研究均高度集中于环境科学与农学,研究热点都包括农业碳排放及影响因素,研究思路上都逐渐注重多尺度机制探究和综合要素分析,研究进展聚焦在乡村碳排放核算和预测、影响因素和减排路径。未来应建立多学科融合的研究框架,拓展研究尺度和基础技术途径,强化乡村主体研究。

长三角城市群多部门碳排放的时空特征、影响要素与空间规划响应研究

从碳排放总量及工业、民用、交通、电力四部门排放量出发,可视化分析长三角城市群碳排放的时空特征,构建模型分析其影响要素,并从国土空间规划的视角提出响应策略。首先,对1990—2021年长三角碳排放进行时空数据可视化;其次,通过空间自相关分析碳排放空间协同性;再次,考虑国土空间规划分区,采用改进STIRPAT模型遴选出社会经济、建成环境方面对总量、地均碳排放的显著影响因子及其弹性系数;最后,提出针对长三角地区碳减排的空间规划策略。结果表明,碳排放以区域性中心城区为聚集,城市化水平、人口要素、人均财富等要素会促进区域碳排放。基于此,提出碳排放分区划定、低碳产业引导、用地分类与格局优化等空间响应策略。

基于空间-社会视角的城市居住能耗碳排放影响因素研究——以天津中心城区为例

厘清城市居住能耗碳排放的“空间-社会”共同影响作用机理,有助于为社区低碳更新规划提供针对性空间识别方法和政策支撑。借鉴居住分异理论中“空间-社会”二维属性的社区居住空间刻画逻辑,对天津市中心城区市民进行社会问卷调查,采用路径分析模型建立“空间-社会”复合作用下的影响关系模型,并对空间性和社会性影响总效益进行系统比较分析。研究结果表明:①空间性因素和社会性因素对大城市居住能耗碳排放的间接影响效应普遍存在,对直接效应起到一定修正作用;②社会性因素影响总效应远高于空间性因素,关键影响指标分别为人口数量和住房总价;③住区价值对家庭居住能耗碳排放的正向影响关系被证实显著存在。高价格大户型住宅通过吸引高收入群体购买和自身设施水平较高两方面锁定高碳排放行为特征。据此,提出差异化住区碳排放特征识别方法及低碳规划审查要点,为城市更新提供政策参考。

改进猫群算法在车辆配送路径优化中的应用研究

为解决在生鲜农产品的车辆配送过程中存在的成本高、碳排放高的问题,以顾客满意度最高和总配送成本最低为目标,构建低碳冷链生鲜农产品的车辆配送路径优化模型。首先,通过多种方法对猫群算法进行优化;然后,用优化的猫群算法对模型进行求解。通过仿真实验对车辆配送路径优化前后效果进行分析,验证了所构建模型的可行性。结果表明,所构建的模型能有效地解决车辆配送的路径优化问题;与传统车辆配送的路径规划方法相比,采用所构建的车辆路径优化模型,车辆配送总路径和碳排放量都有一定程度的改善;车辆总配送路径长度缩短了489.77km、车辆碳排放量降低了21.4%。该方法能有效降低车辆配送过程的总成本和碳排放量,可在一定程度上提高车辆的利用效率和物流企业的市场竞争力。

基于碳排放核算的CCUS源汇匹配和部署研究

针对不同碳源捕集能耗、不同运输地貌和距离的压缩功耗,以及CO_(2)驱不同开发阶段能耗和泄漏的差异,以CCUS项目能耗和泄漏、散逸排放为约束条件,项目周期全流程净减排量最大为优化目标,建立碳减排量核算约束下符合油藏动态开发规律的CCUS源汇匹配方法,可为“双碳”目标下CCUS技术产业布局和项目实施提供决策依据。以中国石油在鄂尔多斯盆地的CCUS产业规划为例,综合考虑现有煤电、煤化工碳源运行和装置服役时限、CO_(2)捕集能耗预测、CO_(2)驱注入倍数与循环气量,以及盆地内煤基工业产业布局规划等限制因素,按2025年、2030年、2040年、2050年和2060年5个阶段完成鄂尔多斯盆地CCUS项目源汇匹配优化和阶段部署,匹配的CCUS/CCS项目群在2025—2060期间累计注入CO_(2)约3.96×10^(8)t(含循环气0.48×10^(8)t),扣除各工艺能耗和泄漏排放后的CO_(2)净减排量可达2.54×10^(8)t,净减排效率约为72.9%。

兼顾碳减排和新能源消纳的火电机组深度调峰与复合储能协调规划

火电机组深度调峰、化学储能以及抽水蓄能是电网灵活性资源的重要组成部分,对三者进行协调规划能在保障电网安全低碳运行的同时,提升新能源的接纳能力。从经济性、碳减排量、弃风弃光量3个方面,构建了火电机组深度调峰和复合储能协调的多目标规划模型;提出了基于熵权的改进非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解多目标规划模型,获得Pareto最优解集,并进一步根据模糊隶属度得到综合最优解。以某省级电网2025年、2030年的预测数据为例进行仿真验证,结果表明:采用改进NSGA-Ⅱ可提升多目标优化的求解速度与精度;火电机组深度调峰协同储能配置可显著减小弃风弃光率,有利于电力系统的低碳经济运行。

碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟

[目的]在碳中和目标下,探究湖南省“三生”功能时空演变及其未来碳排放分布格局,为全国各省降碳减排提供决策参考。[方法]基于“三生”功能评价模型、“三生”空间碳排放系数测度模型,结合区域“三生”功能的各类数据和时空分异规律,探究湖南省“三生”功能与碳排放量时空关系及其未来碳排放分布格局规划战略。[结果]①2000-2020年湖南省县域“三生”空间时空分异特征明显,生态功能空间呈现“西强东弱”格局,时间上呈先降后升的趋势,而生产功能和生活功能总体变化不大。②2000-2020年湖南省县域碳排放在整体上差距不大,而在局部地区较为集聚,且差距在不断扩大。③2000-2020年湖南省“三生”功能与碳排放关联时空关联总体较强,不同空间类型影响程度存在差异性。④综合考虑2035年湖南省国土空间总体格局规划,2035年湖南省的“三生”空间碳排放系数分布可优化为6个组合类型。[结论]湖南省各县域“三生”空间碳排放系数分布格局受自然禀赋和经济发展影响较大,需在主体功能区战略的基础上,加强区域协同,细化县域“三生”空间管控,以提前实现碳中和目标。

“碳双控”形势下炼化企业的生产经营计划优化

随着我国“双碳”战略稳步推进,从能源消耗总量和强度双控(能耗双控)转向碳排放总量和强度双控(碳排放双控)的新形势对石油石化行业节能减碳提出了更高的要求。本研究从石化产业链的关键环节——炼化生产经营和计划优化的角度出发,探索炼化企业在不改变现有生产工艺和能源结构、不增加额外投资的前提下,通过优化生产方案实现碳减排的新途径。通过梳理某炼化一体化企业A和燃料型企业B的生产过程碳排放情况,创新间接排放因子计算方法,对企业每套装置的碳排放量进行精准测算,将炼油厂的碳排放量测算精度从全厂级别推进到装置级别。并进一步将装置的碳排放量纳入生产计划优化模型,研究了装置级碳排放对企业计划优化的影响,研究发现在原油加工量和乙烯产量等条件不变的情况下优化减碳空间至少3%,为A和B企业在实际生产中提供了切实可行的碳减排解决方案。

控规单元尺度城市更新中建筑碳排预计算研究--以武汉滨江商务区七期地块为例

我国已处于城镇化的后半程,加上“30目标+60愿景”国际承诺的做出,标志着存量更新和低碳规划将成为我国城市开发建设和转型发展的基本语境。建筑碳排是城市中的重要碳排放源,亦是影响城市更新的主要碳排因素和计算因子,针对当前我国城市更新中建筑碳排计算研究的缺失,以控规单元尺度为研究范围,以建筑碳排预计算为研究对象,综合运用多种定量研究方法与工具平台及图式化语言进行研究分析。在能耗模拟框架下,对三种常用建筑碳排预计算方法进行比选,选取“根据规划用地类型与强度推算建筑能耗”的碳排计算方法。以武汉滨江商务区七期地块为实证地块,根据城市更新规划设计方案,对城市更新后建筑碳排进行预计算及结果分析;并对现状地块的建筑碳排进行计算,对比分析地块更新前后建筑能耗的减排效应并进行原因探析,得出经过低碳城市更新后的建筑碳排降幅可达到约88%,主要原因在于高能耗建筑类型的减少及用地功能与性质的改变。在实证研究的基础上,从三个方面提出控规单元尺度城市更新的低碳规划策略与技术路径,最后对研究的科学价值和现实意义进行讨论,并提出未来研究应继续努力与完善的方向。

考虑源荷碳责任分摊的新型电力系统多级灵活性资源规划

为满足新型电力系统的灵活性需求与低碳化目标,提出一种计及源荷双侧碳排放责任的多级灵活性资源规划方法。上层模型投资决策风电、光伏、灵活性资源的配置容量和煤电超低排放改造比例;下层优化运行模型基于典型日灵活性需求多级分解结果,调用资源灵活性供给能力,实现系统多级灵活性供需平衡,并基于碳排放流理论提出源荷碳责任因子,将碳排放责任分摊至包含新能源在内的源荷双侧。最后,对改进的IEEE RTS-24节点系统进行算例分析,结果表明所提规划模型可以引导传统燃煤型电网主动向新能源主导型电网转变,并实现系统多级灵活性供需平衡与源荷双侧碳责任的合理分摊。

基于改进白鲸优化算法的低碳柔性工艺规划

针对数控加工过程的低碳柔性工艺规划问题,建立了以加工过程中机床、刀具和装夹的转换次数和碳排放为目标的优化模型,提出了基于改进白鲸优化算法的求解方法。该算法通过引入变异操作增强其全局搜索能力,并在种群初始化中采用以加工资源为导向的启发式规则选择策略与随机生成相结合的方式,以提高初始种群的质量,加快算法的收敛速度。最后,以一个零件的加工信息为测试实例,验证所提模型的可行性,并与其他3种算法进行对比。试验结果表明,所提出的算法能够获得更优解,且具有更快的收敛速度。

寒地微气候影响下的住区空间形态与碳排放效应协同优化研究

城市空间形态与微气候的关联性研究已经广泛应用于城市气候领域,然而由此产生对建筑碳排放效应的影响规律尚有待进一步探讨。以严寒地区沈阳市高层住区为研究对象,建立多种微气候要素影响下的建筑碳排放耦合模型,采用Grasshopper构建参数化平台,集成住区形态几何控制模块、微气候分析模块与碳排放模拟模块,在遗传算法支持下,以碳排放效应最优为目标进行住区空间布局寻优求解。研究结果表明:微气候要素对单体建筑各层碳排放的影响程度为:风速>空气温度>太阳辐射;在容积率一定情况下,形态参数对住区碳排放总量的影响程度为:建筑朝向>建筑间距系数>围合度。根据2023年冬至日气象数据进行优化实验,获得的最优方案与原始方案对比,当日住区的CO_(2)排放量减少6.53 kg。研究结果可为严寒地区规划建设低碳住区提供一种量化控制设计方法。