Monitoring Surface Water Change in Northeast China in 1999–2020:Evidence from Satellite Observation and Refined Classification

As a typical region with high water demand for agricultural production,understanding the spatiotemporal surface water changes in Northeast China is critical for water resources management and sustainable development.However,the long-term variation characteristics of surface water of different water body types in Northeast China remain rarely explored.This study investigated how surface water bodies of different types(e.g.,lake,reservoir,river,coastal aquaculture,marsh wetland,ephemeral water) changed during1999–2020 in Northeast China based on various remote sensing-based datasets.The results showed that surface water in Northeast China grew dramatically in the past two decades,with an equivalent area increasing from 24 394 km^(2) in 1999 to 34 595 km^(2) in 2020.The surge of ephemeral water is the primary driver of surface water expansion,which could ascribe to shifted precipitation pattern.Marsh wetlands,rivers,and reservoirs experienced a similar trend,with an approximate 20% increase at the interdecadal scale.By contrast,coastal aquacultures and natural lakes remain relatively stable.This study is expected to provide a more comprehensive investigation of the surface water variability in Northeast China and has important practical significance for the scientific management of different types of surface water.

How Does Urban Shrinkage Affect Land Use Efficiency?A Case Study of Shrinking Cities in Northeast China

The effect of urban shrinkage has gradually become a new topic.Theoretically,urban shrinkage may exert great influence on land use efficiency(LUE)through various urban subsystems,but there is currently limited research examining these pathways.Using the Super-SBM-Undesirable model and the Structural Equation Model(SEM),this study calculates the LUE of shrinking cities in Northeast China and simulates the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE.To quantify the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE,three mediation variables,namely the economy,public services,and innovation,are used as latent variables to apply SEM.The results show that urban shrinkage will affect LUE through a direct path and indirect paths.In the direct path,urban shrinkage leads to an improvement in LUE.In the indirect paths,the economy and innovation will transmit the negative effect of urban shrinkage on LUE,while public services will reverse this effect.An important contribution of this study is that it quantifies the paths of urban shrinkage affecting LUE,thereby expanding the understanding of urban shrinkage effect and laying a foundation for the sustainable development of shrinking cities.

An Extreme Gale Event in East China under the Arctic Potential Vorticity Anomaly through the Northeast China Cold Vortex

Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.

The Coordinated Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Arctic Sea Ice on Anomalous Northeast China Cold Vortex Activities with Different Paths during Late Summer

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.

Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Cultivated Land Quality in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.

Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) Identification Method for Agricultural Soil Stratification in a Typical Mollisols Area of Northeast China

In order to achieve a rapid and accurate identification of soil stratification information and accelerate the development of smart agriculture,this paper conducted soil stratification experiments on agricultural soils in the Mollisols area of Northeast China using Ground Penetrating Radar(GPR)and obtained different types of soil with frequencies of 500 MHz,250 MHz,and 100 MHz antennas.The soil profile data were obtained for 500 MHz,250 MHz,and 100 MHz antennas,and the dielectric properties of each type of soil were analyzed.In the image processing procedure,wavelet analysis was first used to decompose the pre-processed radar signal and reconstruct the high-frequency information to obtain the reconstructed signal containing the stratification information.Secondly,the reconstructed signal is taken as an envelope to enhance the stratification information.The Hilbert transform is applied to the envelope signal to find the time-domain variation of the instantaneous frequency and determine the time-domain location of the stratification.Finally,the dielectric constant of each soil horizon is used to obtain the propagation velocity of the electromagnetic wave at the corresponding position to obtain the stratification position of each soil horizon.The research results show that the 500 MHz radar antenna can accurately delineate Ap/Ah,horizon and the absolute accuracy of the stratification is within 5 cm.The effect on the soil stratification below the tillage horizon is not apparent,and the absolute accuracy of the 250 MHz and 100 MHz radar antennas on the stratification is within 9 cm.The overwhelming majority of the overall calculation errors are kept to within 15%.Based on the three central frequency antennas,the soil horizon detection rate reaches 93.3%,which can achieve accurate stratification of soil profiles within 1 m.The experimental and image processing methods used are practical and feasible;however,the GPR will show a missed detection for soil horizons with only slight differences in dielectric properties.Overall,this study can quickly and accurately determine the information of each soil stratification,ultimately providing technical support for acquiring soil configuration information and developing smart agriculture.

Microbial Responses of Soil Fertility to Depth of Tillage and Incorporation of Straw in a Haplic Chernozem in Northeast China

Straw is widely incorporated into soil worldwide,but most studies have concentrated on the effects of straw mulching or incorporation with topsoil.To determine the effect of depth of straw incorporation on bacterial and fungal communities,we established a field experiment in a region in Northeast China with Haplic Chernozems using four treatments:conventional tillage(CT,tillage to a depth of 15 cm with no straw incorporation),straw incorporation with conventional tillage(SCT,tillage to a depth of 15 cm),inversion tillage(IT,tillage to a depth of 35 cm)and straw incorporation with inversion tillage(SIT,tillage to a depth of 35 cm).The soils were managed by inversion to a depth of 15 or 35 cm after harvest.The results show that soil organic carbon content was significantly higher and pH and bulk density were significantly lower in the 15–35 cm layer in IT and SIT than CT and SCT.Fungal abundance was higher with straw incorporation,but fungal diversity was lower in the 0–15 cm layer in SCT and SIT than in CT and IT.Path length in the bacterial network was shorter and connectivity was higher in CT+SCT than in IT+SIT,leading to a more complex ecosystem,and the fungal network had opposite patterns.The key taxa in the phylum Actinobacteriota and Ascomycota in the microbial networks changed dramatically at the genus level following inversion tillage with straw amendment,which may increase bacterial network resistance to environmental disturbances and unstable fungal networks,resulting in large changes in the fungal community involved in the decomposition of recalcitrant straw-derived C and the more efficient acquisition of limiting resources.

Withdrawal Intention of Farmers from Vacant Rural Homesteads and Its Influencing Mechanism in Northeast China: A Case Study of Jilin Province

The effective use of land in Northeast China is of great significance for ensuring national food security and regional rural revitalization.In this study,based on the survey data collected from Jilin Province,Northeast China,we analyzed the vacancy rates of rural homesteads in suburban,outer suburban,and remote villages,as well as the withdrawal intention of rural-settled farmers,urbansettled farmers,and farmers with urban and rural dual residency from vacant homesteads.From the perspective of farmers’perceptions,this study constructed a theoretical framework of the influence mechanism of their withdrawal intention and analyzed such mechanism by constructing a structural equation model.The results indicated that:1)rural homestead vacancy rates increased with distance from the village to the city.2)rural-settled farmers showed a low withdrawal intention for vacant rural homesteads,followed by urban and rural dual-residence farmers,and urban-settled farmers showed the highest withdrawal intention.3)the relative importance of the factors influencing withdrawal intention is in the following order:policy awareness>interest perception>living environment perception>family characteristics.Finally,this study discussed the reformation of the homestead system and rural homestead transition in Northeast China,which can provide policy support to increase the potential of cultivated land and promote sustainable rural development and urban-rural coordination.

Trade-off and Synergy of Rural Functions Under County Depopulation in the Typical Black Soil Region of Northeast China

As the population continues to shrink in the black soil region of Northeast China since 2000,it is critical to master the impact of population shrinkage on rural functions to realize rural revitalization and sustainable development.In this study,we focused on the impacts of depopulation on the evolution and interrelationship of rural subfunctions.Based on the rural function indexes system,the TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)method,spatial analysis method,and mathematical statistics analysis method were used to summarize the spatial and temporal characteristics of rural function development,as well as the effect of population shrinkage in the typical black soil region of Northeast China.The results showed that depopulation varied in the extent and duration between the forested region and plain areas,which both impacted the trajectories of rural subfunctions evolution.For the economic development function and ecological conservation function,the effect of continuous slight depopulation was beneficial,while the effect of rapid depopulation was adverse,which was exactly opposite to the agricultural production function.All forms of population shrinkage were conducive to the development of the social security function.With the deepening population shrinkage,depopulation mainly promoted the collaborative development between subfunctions in this study,except the relationship between agricultural production and social security function.But effects of depopulation on the interrelationship of rural subfunctions varied between the forested region and plain areas in some cases.The results provided evidence for the cognition that population shrinkage had complicated effects on rural subfunctions.

Spatiotemporal Differences and Classification Regulation of Urbanization Impact on Agricultural Development in Shrinking Areas:A Case Study of 15 Shrinking Cities in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Studying the impact of urbanization on agricultural development in shrinking areas is important for maintaining food security and promoted agricultural development in China.Based on the measurement results of the shrinking cities in the three provinces of Northeast China,this paper selects 15 shrinking cities as the research object,and constructs a multi-dimensional index system to explore the impact of the urbanization level of the shrinking areas on the agricultural development in the region since 2007–2019,analyzes the influencing factors and their differences by using the geographically-weighted regression model and Geodetector,and proposes a targeted regulation strategy.The results show that:1)overall,there is a negative correlation between the urbanization level and the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces.The urbanization level in these areas has a certain negative impact on the overall level of agricultural development;2)regarding the time dimension,the impact of urbanization level on the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually increases over time;3)regarding the spatial pattern,the overall impact of shrinking urbanization levels in the three provinces of Northeast China on the agricultural development shows a significant distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west;4)the total population and natural population growth rate at the end of the year were the main factors influencing a certain level of urbanization on agricultural development in the shrinking cities while population density and the urban fixed asset investment rate were the secondary factors;and 5)the main reasons why the level of agricultural development in different cities was affected by the level of urbanization were different.However,they can be categorized into areas of population loss and spatial construction,which can be further divided into area of population loss in the northeast,areas of negative population growth in the west,and areas of urban spatial change in the south.According to the causes of the impact,this paper adopted targeted regulation strategies and formulated relevant policies and solutions that cater to local conditions.

Changes of spring wind erosion based on wind erosion climate factor in the black soil region of Northeast China

The dry and windy climate and low ground cover in spring in the black soil region of Northeast China make the soil strongly affected by wind erosion,which seriously threatens the food security and ecological security of this region.In this paper,based on the daily observation data of 124 meteorological stations in study area from 1961 to 2020,seasonal and monthly wind erosion climate factor(C)in spring(March to May)were calculated by using the method proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),the wind erosion characterization in spring were systematically analyzed based on C by various statistical analysis methods.The results showed that in the past 60 years,spring wind erosion climate factor(CSp)and monthly C of the whole region and each province(region)all showed highly significant decreasing trend,but they began to show rebounded trend in the middle or late 2000s.CSp of the study area showed a significant upward trend since 2008 with an increase of 4.59(10a)^(-1).The main contributors to this upward trend are the changes of C in March and in April.For the four provinces(regions),CSp in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia all showed rebounded since 2008,2011,2008 and 2009,respectively.The rebounded trend of CSp in eastern Inner Mongolia was the most obvious with a tendency rate of 11.27(10a)^(-1),and its mutation occurred after 1984.The rebound trend of CSp in Heilongjiang Province takes the second place,with a trend rate of 4.72(10a)^(-1),but there’s no obvious time mutation characteristics.The spatial characteristics of CSpand monthly C are similar,showing decreasing characteristics centered on the typical black soil belt of Northeast China.Compared with 1961-1990,in the period from 1991 to 2020,the proportion of high value areas(CSp>35,monthly C>10)has decreased to varying degrees,while the proportion of low value areas(CSp≤10,monthly C≤4)has increased.The trends of seasonal and monthly C in 82.2%~87.7%of the stations show significant decreases at 95%confidence level.CSp is closely related to wind speed at 2m height,temperature difference,minimum temperature and precipitation in the same period,of which the correlation between CSp and wind speed is the strongest,indicating that the main control factor for CSp in the study area is wind speed,but the impact of the change of temperature and precipitation on CSp cannot be ignored.

Alternation of the Atmospheric Teleconnections Associated with the Northeast China Spring Rainfall during a Recent 60-Year Period

Northeast China(NEC)is China’s national grain production base,and the local precipitation is vital for agriculture during the springtime.Therefore,understanding the dynamic origins of the NEC spring rainfall(NECSR)variability is of socioeconomic importance.This study reveals an interdecadal change in the atmospheric teleconnections associated with the NECSR during a recent 60-year period(1961-2020).Before the mid-1980s,NECSR had been related to a Rossby wave train that is coupled with extratropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST),whereas,since the mid-1980s,NECSR has been linked to a quite different Rossby wave train that is coupled with tropical North Atlantic SST.Both Rossby wave trains could lead to enhanced NECSR through anomalous cyclones over East Asia.The weakening of the westerly jet over North America is found to be mainly responsible for the alternation of the atmospheric teleconnections associated with NECSR during two epochs.

Analysis of Snowstorm Process in Northeast China during 5-9 November, 2021

In November 2021, Northeast China had more precipitation than in the same period. Among them, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces in the Northeast China were the highest precipitation in the same period. I study a snowfall weather process from November 5 to 9, which mainly includes dynamic situation, synoptic background and situation. The results show that: In the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, circulation is adjusted from zonal to meridional with large fluctuations. The northerly wind behind the trough continuously transports the polar cold air to the south. The northwest airflow behind the trough led the cold air to erupt to the southeast. In the process of moving southward, the cold air meets the warm and humid air in front of the trough, causing snowfall in the northeast. The southerly airflow and southeasterly airflow on the east side of the vortex continued to transport warm and humid airflow from the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan, which enhanced the snowfall.

Modulation of the late summer Northeast China cold vortex by previous-winter ENSO

本文利用再分析资料,研究了前冬ENSO对夏末东北冷涡(NCCV)的调制作用.结果表明,前冬ENSO与夏末NCCV强度之间存在显著的相关性,El Nino(La Ni?a)对应于弱(强)的NCCV.印度洋海盆模态(IOBM)在前冬ENSO对夏末东北亚地区大气环流的影响中起着至关重要的作用.作为东部型El Nino的被动响应,IOBM可以从前冬一直持续至夏末,并在夏末激发“中国中部上空气旋—东北亚地区上空反气旋”的经向遥相关模态,从而不利于NCCV增强.反之亦然.此外,印度洋的信号在中部型El Nino和中性年份相对较弱,使得它们对于NCCV的影响不显著.

Response of grain yield to plant density and nitrogen rate in spring maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2010 in Northeast China

The objective of this study was to identify the response of grain yield to plant density and nitrogen rate in spring maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2010 and grown extensively in Northeast China.Twenty-one hybrids were grown for 2 years in Northeast China at densities of 30,000,52,500,75,000,and 97,500 plants ha^(-1)and N application levels of 0,150,300,and 450 kg N ha^(-1).Irrespective of density or nitrogen application rate,grain yields both per plant and per unit area were significantly higher for newer than older hybrids.As plant density increased from 30,000 to 97,500 plant ha^(-1),yield per plant of 1970 s,1980 s,1990 s,and 2000 s hybrids decreased by 50%,45%,46%,and 52%,respectively.The response of grain yield per unit area to plant density was curvilinear.The estimated optimum plant densities were about 58,000,49,000,65,000,and 65,000 plants ha^(-1)for hybrids released in the 1970 s,1980s,1990 s,and 2000 s,respectively.The theoretical optimum densities for the hybrids released from the 1970 s to the 2000 s increased by 1750 plants ha^(-1)decade^(-1).Nitrogen fertilization significantly increased grain yields per plant and per unit area for all hybrids.The theoretical optimum N application rates for high yield for hybrids released in the 1970 s and 1980 s were about 280 and 360 kg ha^(-1),and the hybrids from the 1990 s and 2000 s showed highest yield at 330 kg ha^(-1)N.No significant difference in the grain yields of 2000 s hybrids between the N levels of 150 to 450 kg ha^(-1)was found.Significant yield gains per plant and per unit area were found,with average increases of 17.9 g plant^(-1)decade^(-1)and936 kg ha^(-1)decade^(-1)over the period 1970–2010,respectively.Yield gains were attributed mainly to increased yield per plant,contributed by increases in kernel number per ear and1000-kernel weight.The rates of lodging and barren plants of newer hybrids were significantly lower than those of older ones,especially at high plant density.

Chemical fertilizers could be completely replaced by manure to maintain high maize yield and soil organic carbon(SOC)when SOC reaches a threshold in the Northeast China Plain

The combined use of chemical and organic fertilizers is considered a good method to sustain high crop yield and enhance soil organic carbon （SOC）, but it is still unclear when and to what extent chemical fertilizers could be replaced by organic fertilizers. We selected a long-term soil fertility experiment in Gongzhuling, Northeast China Plain to examine the temporal dynamics of crop yield and SOC in response to chemical nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium （NPK） fertilizers and manure, applied both individually and in combination, over the course of three decades （1980-2010）. We aimed to test 1） which fertilizer application is the best for increasing both maize yield and SOC in this region, and 2） whether chemical fertilizers can be replaced by manure to maintain high maize yield and enhance SOC, and if so, when this replacement should be implemented. We observed that NPK fertilizers induced a considerable increase in maize yield in the first 12 years after the initiation of the experiment, but manure addition did not. In the following years, the addition of both NPK fertilizers and manure led to an increase in maize yield. SOC increased considerably in treatments with manure but remained the same or even declined with NPK treatments. The increase in maize yield induced by NPK fertilizers alone declined greatly with increasing SOC, whereas the combination of NPK and manure resulted in high maize yield and a remarkable improvement in SOC stock. Based on these results we suggested that NPK fertilizers could be at least partially replaced by manure to sustain high maize yield after SOC stock has reached 41.96 Mg C ha^-1 in the Northeast China Plain and highly recommend the combined application of chemical fertilizers and manure （i.e., 60 Mg ha^-1）.

Spatial variability of soil organic carbon in the forestlands of northeast China

Soil organic carbon （SOC） is an effective indicator of soil fertility and productivity, and it varies spatially and temporally in relation to other soil properties. Spatial variability of SOC in the forestlands of northeast China was characterized using geostatistics. Soil samples at the depths of 0-20 era, 20-40 cm and 40-60 cm were collected from six- ty-three temporary plots to evaluate SOC concentration and density （SOCD） and other soil properties. We analyzed correlations between SOC and soil properties. Soil organic carbon concentrations were high. The total amount of C stored in soil （0-60 cm） was 16.23 kg·m-2 with the highest SOCD of 7.98 kg·m-2 in topsoil. Soil properties in most cases differed by horizon, suggesting different processes and effects in each horizon. Soil organic carbon had positive relationships with total N, P and K as well as readily available K, but did not show a significant posi- tive correlation with available P. Spatial factors including elevation, slope and aspect affected SOC distribution. Soil organic carbon at 0-60 cm had strong spatial autocorrelation with nugget/sill ratio of 5.7%, and moderate structured dependence was found at 0-20 cm, which indicated the existence of a highly developed spatial structure. Spatial distributionsof SOC concentration and SOCD were estimated using regres- sion-kriging, with higher prediction accuracy than ordinary kriging. The fractal dimension of SOC indicated the preferential pattern of SOC dis- tribution, with the greatest spatial heterogeneity and strongest spatial dependence in the northeast-southwest direction.

The Impacts of Moisture Transport of East Asian Monsoon on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China

By using the ECMWF reanalysis daily data and daily precipitation data of 80 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2002, the impacts of moisture transport of East Asian summer monsoon on the summer precipitation anomaly in Northeast China, and the relationship between the variation of moisture budget and the establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this region are studied. The results demonstrate that the moisture of summer precipitation in Northeast China mainly originates from subtropical, South China Sea, and South Asia monsoon areas. East China and its near coastal area are the convergent region of the monsoonal moisture currents and the transfer station for the currents continually moving northward. The monsoonal moisture transport, as an important link or bridge, connects the interaction between middle and low latitude systems. In summer half year, there is a moisture sink in Northeast China where the moisture influx is greater than outflux. The advance transport and accumulation of moisture are of special importance to pentad time scale summer precipitation. The onset, retreat, and intensity change of the monsoonal rainy season over Northeast China are mainly signified by the moisture input condition along the southern border of this area. The establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this area ranges from about 10 July to 20 August and the onset in the west is earlier than that in the east. The latitude that the monsoon can reach is gradually northward from west to east, reaching 50°N within longitude 120°-135°E. In summer, the difference of air mass transport between summers with high and low rainfall mainly lies in whether more air masses originating from lower latitudes move northward through East China and its coastal areas, consequently transporting large amounts of hot and humid air into Northeast China.

Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System （DLS） model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000-2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and makJng out the planning for forestry production Jn the Northeast China region.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China （NEC） and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S （conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent） model was ifrst updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods： 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This conifrmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly inlfuenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1＆#176;C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These ifndings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.