Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

Progress, challenge and significance of building a carbon industry system in the context of carbon neutrality strategy

Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage/CO_(2) capture and storage(CCUS/CCS)is becoming a new strategic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.The sustainable development of carbon industry needs to learn from the experiences of global oil and gas industry development.There are three types of“carbon”in the earth system.Black carbon is the CO_(2) that has not been sequestered or used and remains in the atmosphere for a long time;grey carbon is the CO_(2) that has been fixed or permanently sequestered in the geological body,and blue carbon is the CO_(2) that could be converted into products for human use through biological,physical,chemical and other ways.The carbon industry system covers carbon generation,carbon capture,carbon transportation,carbon utilization,carbon sequestration,carbon products,carbon finance,and other businesses.It is a revolutionary industrial field to completely eliminate“black carbon”.The development of carbon industry technical system takes carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon and carbon economy as the connotation,and the construction of a low-cost and energy-efficient carbon industry system based on CCUS/CCS are strategic measures to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and clean energy utilization globally.This will promote the“four 80%s”transformation of China's energy supply,namely,to 2060,the percentage of zero-carbon new energy in the energy consumption will be over 80%and the CO_(2) emission will be decreased by 80%to ensure the carbon emission reduction of total 80×10^(8) t from the percentage of carbon-based fossil energy in the energy consumption of over 80%,and the percentage of CO_(2) emission from energy of over 80%in 2021.The carbon industry in China is facing three challenges,large CO_(2) emissions,high percentage of coal in energy consumption,and poor innovative system.Three strategic measures are proposed accordingly,including:(1)unswervingly develop carbon industrial system and ensure the achievement of carbon neutrality as scheduled by 2060;(2)vigorously develop new energy sources and promote a revolutionary transformation of China’s energy production and consumption structure;(3)accelerate the establishment of scientific and technological innovation system of the whole CO_(2) industry.It is of great significance for continuously optimization of ecological environment and construction of green earth and ecological earth to develop the carbon industry system,utilize clean energy,and achieve the strategic goal of global carbon neutrality.

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China:Goals,implementation path and prospects

Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

Research on the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization Model in Colleges and Universities:Taking China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as an Example

The“3060”goal demonstrates China’s responsibility in actively responding to global climate,enhances China’s voice and influence in climate governance,and sets an example of energy conservation and emission reduction for developing countries.As the main institutions that educate people for the Party and the country,colleges and universities have the responsibility to explore the realization path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization against the new problems encountered in the practice of energy conservation and emission reduction in colleges and universities.In response to the national strategy and the action plan of the Ministry of Education,taking the carbon practice of China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as the starting point,this paper conducts benchmarking research on the path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in universities through the ecological factor method,campus carbon footprint,and questionnaire analysis.

Research on Carbon Reduction Strategy of China’s Industrial Chain with the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.

A hefty target of reducing the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions

At the end of January, China formally handed over the report on pollution reduction targets to the United Nations.

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies

In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality.This paper discusses the main problems,opportunities,and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality,as well as China’s response to them.The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories:(1)Carbon emission reduction technology(natural gas hydrate,geothermal,hot dry rock,nuclear energy,hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,hydrogen energy);(2)carbon sequestration technology(carbon capture and storage,underground space utilization);(3)key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization(raw materials for energy transformation,carbon reduction technology).Therefore,geosciences and geological technologies are needed:First,actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas,geothermal energy,hydropower,hot dry rock,and key energy minerals,and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas;the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection,carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures,and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters;the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences,organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources,carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory,and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines.The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research.In the future,it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects,enhance the ability of climate adaptation,and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Pathway and policy analysis to China's deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China,promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium-and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with "bottom-up" modeling analysis and proposes a medium-and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies' mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product(GDP) by 60-65% from the 2005 level.From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial lowcarbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.

The role of new energy in carbon neutral

Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle,and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect.The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as"gray carbon",while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called"black carbon".Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development,but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics,resources,technology,market,and energy structure,etc.It is proposed that carbon replacement,carbon emission reduction,carbon sequestration,and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral,among which carbon replacement is the backbone.New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future.Nowadays,solar energy,wind energy,hydropower,nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy,helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions."Green hydrogen"is the reserve force of new energy,helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields.Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy,effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy.It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110×10^(8) t in 2030.The study predicts that China’s carbon emissions will drop to 22×10^(8) t,33×10^(8) t and 44×10^(8) t,respectively,in 2060 according to three scenarios of high,medium,and low levels.To realize carbon neutral in China,seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new"three small and one large"energy structure in China and promote the realization of China’s energy independence strategy.

An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2emissions to peak around 2030,which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China's resource conservation,environmental protection,shift in economic development patterns,and CO2emission reduction to avoid climate change.The development stage where China maps out the CO2emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries.It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2emission peaking.Given that China's potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%,and China's total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%e1.5%annually around2030,new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%e8%annually to meet the desired CO2emission peak.The share of new and renewable energies in China's total primary energy supply will be approximately 20%by 2030.At that time,the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3,and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2intensity will also be higher than 4%to ensure the sustained growth of GDP.To achieve the CO2emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon development transformation,China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution,the innovation of advanced energy technologies,the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism,and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

Auction mechanism design of the Chinese national carbon market for carbon neutralization

The carbon market auction mechanism is an important policy tool for carbon pricing and a key mechanism that supports carbon emission neutralization,especially for China.A few systematic studies exist on China’s carbon market auction mechanism.This article focuses on the five auction mechanisms in Chinese pilot emission trading schemes(ETS),reviews the structures and bidding situation of the five-pilot auction mechanism,extracts the similarities,and analyzes their different features,such as auction mode,bidding scale,participants,pricing mode,auction frequency,and so on.This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the carbon allowance auction mechanism in the Guangdong pilot ETS of China,including its development and the evolution of the key elements,its operational effects,and related disputes.Finally,this study puts forward the trend forecast and suggestions for the Chinese allowance auction mechanism,such as the time window of launching national allowance auctions,the most likely auction mode,carbon pricing,and bidding revenue management.Carbon pricing by auction is the most powerful policy tool for addressing carbon emissions reduction and implementing the Glasgow Climate Pact.

中国实现碳中和:降碳风险的识别与应对

中国实现碳中和目标必将引发能源利用模式的深度变革,重塑各领域生产生活方式既是一场系统性变革,也面临微观与宏观的转型风险。从系统视角阐释中国零碳转型过程中降碳风险及其风险的系统传导机制,并基于低碳/零碳/负碳技术创新及转化的“研发—应用—推广”的阶段过程,解析了零碳转型过程中风险因素的传导路径;指出技术成熟度、产品绿色溢价、资产沉没成本、技术应用及供应链保障五类主要降碳风险,评估其对中国碳中和目标实现和社会经济发展的影响。提出中国需从系统视角慎重把握目标实现过程中的降碳风险,从政策引领、监测核算、科技人才、创新环境、国际合作等多方面共同发力和协同推进,全局把控设计应对政策措施,应深入实施低碳技术领跑者政策、加强碳排放核算与碳减排风险评估、积极培育壮大低碳技术研发力量、营造有利于低碳创新的社会环境。

氢产业链发展的路径分析

碳达峰、碳中和战略的提出为我国各行业绿色低碳转型指明了方向,绿色氢能源有望在交通、化工、发电等多个领域发挥重要作用,推动氢产业发展可成为我国实现双碳目标的有效途径。本文在对美国、欧盟、日本和中国近年来氢产业发展情况进行比较与分析的前提下,提出了中国氢产业链的发展路径。文中指出,我国需要在借鉴发达国家氢产业发展政策的基础上,立足本国国情,统筹谋划构建从制氢、储运、加氢站建设到多场景应用的产业链。综合考虑我国的资源分布情况,加大绿氢产业布局,依据绿氢的绿色能源、绿色材料以及绿色原料的多元属性,推动氢能在交通、化工、冶金、发电等多场景的高效利用,同时我国要加强国际合作,联合研发相关新型技术与基础设施,制定涉氢国际标准,统筹兼顾氢产业经济发展与应对全球气候变暖的双重目标。

水土保持碳汇生态产品价值实现机制及试点设想

水土保持碳汇生态产品价值的实现是“两山”转化的重要途径,也是践行“双碳”目标的重要内容。在界定水土保持碳汇生态产品内涵基础上,论述了基于“主体—要素—运行”多层次框架,构建“多主体协同—多要素投入—全周期运行”的水土保持碳汇生态产品价值实现机制,并以福建省龙岩市为试点示范区,系统梳理其试点基础及必要性,并提出相关的试点策略,以期为龙岩市及类似地区实践提供一定的决策参考。

水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的机制与途径构建

水土保持碳汇具备负碳技术的特性,受到政府和交易主体广泛关注和青睐,未来将在我国碳排放权交易市场中得到广泛应用。从建立碳汇项目开发团队、实施碳汇监测与核算、协调撮合交易和宣传示范等4个方面,总结全国首单水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的实践探索,提出水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的机制与途径,包括加强水土保持碳汇基础研究和技术攻关、完善水土保持碳汇监测和核算体系、开展碳汇项目开发和探索碳汇交易途径与机制、建立水土保持碳汇纳入温室气体自愿减排交易机制、建设碳汇项目开发队伍与机构、提升项目开发信息管理水平等6个方面。

国家中心城市交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构及动因研究

为科学把握城市交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构,实现交通运输业可持续发展,基于2011—2020年我国9个国家中心城市交通碳排放数据,构建考虑非期望产出的全局超效率SBM模型(GB-US-Super-SBM模型)并测算交通碳排放效率,利用修改的引力模型建立空间关联网络,在此基础上应用社会网络分析方法厘清交通碳排放效率空间网络结构及其动因。结果表明:1)研究期内,9个国家中心城市交通碳排放效率整体水平不高,城市间存在较大差距。2)国家中心城市交通碳排放效率的空间关联呈现网络结构形态,并逐渐形成了天津、西安、郑州等多个网络中心;空间网络关联性以2017年为节点呈现先增强后减弱的趋势;天津、西安、郑州等城市发挥着“桥梁”和“中介”作用,对空间网络的形成发挥了重要作用。3)经济发展水平差异、城镇化水平差异、节能技术水平差异和空间邻接关系等因素在交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构中发挥显著作用,其中空间邻接关系和经济发展水平差异的影响最显著。

涡旋膨胀机研究进展及展望

随着“双碳”目标的提出,涡旋膨胀机作为回收低品位能量的机械装置备受关注。首先,对近年来涡旋膨胀机的理论研究成果进行了综述,主要包括型线理论、热动力学和计算流体力学(CFD)仿真。然后,对涡旋膨胀机在有机朗肯循环(ORC)中的应用进行了总结,梳理了涡旋膨胀机在跨临界CO_(2)制冷循环中的应用研究成果。最后,对涡旋膨胀机未来的研究方向进行了展望。结果表明:变壁厚涡旋膨胀机因其可以在不增加泄漏线长度的情况下增加内容积比,因此将成为未来型线优化的主要方向;CFD仿真已成为重要的研究工具;润滑油是影响涡旋膨胀机性能的关键因素,提高润滑油的黏度有利于提升效率,而过量的润滑油则会使其性能下降;工作压力是影响涡旋膨胀机性能的最主要的因素,过膨胀、欠膨胀以及泄漏现象都会使其性能下降。此外,涡旋膨胀压缩一体机集成了膨胀机和压缩机两个功能单元于一个机壳中,显著简化了系统结构并提高了能量回收效率,是提升新能源车用CO_(2)热泵空调系统性能的有效途径。基于当前的研究成果和行业需求,提出涡旋膨胀机未来应继续深入研究和优化型线设计、减少泄漏、优化工作压力等,以满足日益增长的能量回收和环境保护需求。

中国工业低碳转型进程再评估及其多样化分解

工业低碳转型是中国落实“双碳”目标、推进绿色低碳发展的关键所在,全面理解中国工业低碳转型进程具有重要价值。为此,首先构建工业低碳转型进程再评估及其分解的理论框架,随后基于跨国、省份和行业样本数据,采用SBM方向性距离函数和Luenberger生产率指标对2001—2021年中国工业低碳转型进程展开再评估,并从生产技术演化、要素效率变动和经济结构变迁三个维度对该进程进行分解。研究发现,国际视角下的中国工业低碳转型进程在研究期内稳步推进,节奏更为平稳、方式更可持续;国内视角下的中国工业低碳转型进程在研究期内具有先快后缓的推进特征,且省份间和行业间低碳转型分化程度持续加深;经典分解表明技术进步和技术效率提升在推动工业低碳转型过程中无法有效协同,存在普遍的正负或强弱特征;要素分解表明工业低碳转型的驱动要素逐渐多元化,能源效率和碳效率的贡献逐步凸显,但具有一定波动性;结构分解显示区域结构效率总体呈小幅下降趋势,产业结构效率始终为负且后期受政策影响而呈现周期性波动特征。基于研究结论,从协同推进技术进步与技术效率改善、提升区域及行业维度能源效率和碳效率、优化经济结构效率三方面为高质量推进中国工业低碳转型进程提出了具体建议。