Constraints on Characteristics and Distribution of Gas Hydrate and Free Gas Using Broad-Band Processing of Three-Dimensional Seismic Data

Gas hydrate drilling expeditions in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea,have identified concentrated gas hydrates with variable thickness.Moreover,free gas and the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas have been confirmed by logging,coring,and production tests in the foraminifera-rich silty sediments with complex bottom-simulating reflectors(BSRs).The broad-band processing is conducted on conventional three-dimensional(3D)seismic data to improve the image and detection accuracy of gas hydratebearing layers and delineate the saturation and thickness of gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing sediments.Several geophysical attributes extracted along the base of the gas hydrate stability zone are used to demonstrate the variable distribution and the controlling factors for the differential enrichment of gas hydrate.The inverted gas hydrate saturation at the production zone is over 40% with a thickness of 90 m,showing the interbedded distribution with different boundaries between gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing layers.However,the gas hydrate saturation value at the adjacent canyon is 70%,with 30-m-thick patches and linear features.The lithological and fault controls on gas hydrate and free gas distributions are demonstrated by tracing each gas hydrate-bearing layer.Moreover,the BSR depths based on broad-band reprocessed 3D seismic data not only exhibit variations due to small-scale topographic changes caused by seafloor sedimentation and erosion but also show the upward shift of BSR and the blocky distribution of the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas in the Pearl River Mouth Basin.

Geochemistry and origins of hydrogen-containing natural gases in deep Songliao Basin,China:Insights from continental scientific drilling

The different reservoirs in deep Songliao Basin have non-homogeneous lithologies and include multiple layers with a high content of hydrogen gas.The gas composition and stable isotope characteristics vary significantly,but the origin analysis of different gas types has previously been weak.Based on the geochemical parameters of gas samples from different depths and the analysis of geological settings,this research covers the diverse origins of natural gas in different strata.The gas components are mainly methane with a small amount of C_(2+),and non-hydrocarbon gases,including nitrogen(N_(2)),hydrogen(H_(2)),carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),and helium(He).At greater depth,the carbon isotope of methane becomes heavier,and the hydrogen isotope points to a lacustrine sedimentary environment.With increasing depth,the origins of N_(2)and CO_(2)change gradually from a mixture of organic and inorganic to inorganic.The origins of hydrogen gas are complex and include organic sources,water radiolysis,water-rock(Fe^(2+)-containing minerals)reactions,and mantle-derived.The shales of Denglouku and Shahezi Formations,as source rocks,provide the premise for generation and occurrence of organic gas.Furthermore,the deep faults and fluid activities in Basement Formation control the generation and migration of mantle-derived gas.The discovery of a high content of H_(2)in study area not only reveals the organic and inorganic association of natural-gas generation,but also provides a scientific basis for the exploration of deep hydrogen-rich gas.

Geological conditions,genetic mechanisms and accumulation patterns of helium resources

Based on the methodology for petroleum systems and through the anatomy and geochemical study of typical helium-rich gas fields,the geological conditions,genesis mechanisms,and accumulation patterns of helium resources in natural gas are investigated.Helium differs greatly from other natural gas resources in generation,migration,and accumulation.Helium is generated due to the slow alpha decay of basement U-/Th-rich elements or released from the deep crust and mantle,and then migrates along the composite transport system to natural gas reservoirs,where it accumulates with a suitable carrier gas.Helium migration and transport are controlled by the transport system consisting of lithospheric faults,basement faults,sedimentary layer faults,and effective transport layers.Based on the analysis of the helium-gas-water phase equilibrium in underground fluids and the phase-potential coupling,three occurrence states,i.e.water-soluble phase,gas-soluble phase and free phase,in the process of helium migration and accumulation,and three migration modes of helium,i.e.mass flow,seepage,and diffusion,are proposed.The formation and enrichment of helium-rich gas reservoirs are controlled by three major factors,i.e.high-quality helium source,high-efficiency transport and suitable carrier,and conform to three accumulation mechanisms,i.e.exsolution and convergence,buoyancy-driven,and differential pressure displacement.The helium-rich gas reservoirs discovered follow the distribution rule and accumulation pattern of near helium source,adjacent to fault,low potential area,and high position".To explore and evaluate helium-rich areas,it is necessary to conduct concurrent/parallel exploration of natural gas.The comprehensive evaluation and selection of profitable helium-rich areas with the characteristics of"source-trap connected,low fluid potential and high position,and proper natural gas volume matched with helium’s"should focus on the coupling and matching of the helium"source,migration,and accumulation elements"with the natural gas"source,reservoir and caprock conditions",and favorable carrier gas trap areas in local low fluid potential and high positions.

Deep-large faults controlling on the distribution of the venting gas hydrate system in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin, South China Sea

Many locations with concentrated hydrates at vents have confirmed the presence of abundant thermogenic gas in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin(QDNB).However,the impact of deep structures on gasbearing fluids migration and gas hydrates distribution in tectonically inactive regions is still unclear.In this study,the authors apply high-resolution 3D seismic and logging while drilling(LWD)data from the middle of the QDNB to investigate the influence of deep-large faults on gas chimneys and preferred gasescape pipes.The findings reveal the following:(1)Two significant deep-large faults,F1 and F2,developed on the edge of the Songnan Low Uplift,control the dominant migration of thermogenic hydrocarbons and determine the initial locations of gas chimneys.(2)The formation of gas chimneys is likely related to fault activation and reactivation.Gas chimney 1 is primarily arises from convergent fluid migration resulting from the intersection of the two faults,while the gas chimney 2 benefits from a steeper fault plane and shorter migration distance of fault F2.(3)Most gas-escape pipes are situated near the apex of the two faults.Their reactivations facilitate free gas flow into the GHSZ and contribute to the formation of fracture‐filling hydrates.

Inter-layer interference for multi-layered tight gas reservoir in the absence and presence of movable water

Due to the dissimilarity among different producing layers,the influences of inter-layer interference on the production performance of a multi-layer gas reservoir are possible.However,systematic studies of inter-layer interference for tight gas reservoirs are really limited,especially for those reservoirs in the presence of water.In this work,five types of possible inter-layer interferences,including both absence and presence of water,are identified for commingled production of tight gas reservoirs.Subsequently,a series of reservoir-scale and pore-scale numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the degree of influence of each type of interference.Consistent field evidence from the Yan'an tight gas reservoir(Ordos Basin,China)is found to support the simulation results.Additionally,suggestions are proposed to mitigate the potential inter-layer interferences.The results indicate that,in the absence of water,commingled production is favorable in two situations:when there is a difference in physical properties and when there is a difference in the pressure system of each layer.For reservoirs with a multi-pressure system,the backflow phenomenon,which significantly influences the production performance,only occurs under extreme conditions(such as very low production rates or well shut-in periods).When water is introduced into the multi-layer system,inter-layer interference becomes nearly inevitable.Perforating both the gas-rich layer and water-rich layer for commingled production is not desirable,as it can trigger water invasion from the water-rich layer into the gas-rich layer.The gas-rich layer might also be interfered with by water from the neighboring unperforated water-rich layer,where the water might break the barrier(eg weak joint surface,cement in fractures)between the two layers and migrate into the gas-rich layer.Additionally,the gas-rich layer could possibly be interfered with by water that accumulates at the bottom of the wellbore due to gravitational differentiation during shut-in operations.

基于GAS算法的卵砾石粒径自动识别应用研究

粒径和级配是表征床面组成的重要指标,基于GAS粒径自动识别技术可自动识别粗粒床面粒径并生成级配曲线,能够大幅提高现场采样和分析的效率。为了验证GAS的分割效果,采用GAS提供的默认参数进行分割,同时应用ImageJ软件手动分割进行验证。结果表明:GAS级配曲线的相对误差为5.7%,相关系数为0.992。另外,采用单参数和多参数敏感性分析法来标准化参数调整方案,gre、can1和can2对GAS提取的级配曲线和特征粒径有显著影响,其中gre起主导作用,而can1和can2控制着砾石边界的检测完整性。

A highly sensitive LITES sensor based on a multi-pass cell with dense spot pattern and a novel quartz tuning fork with low frequency

A highly sensitive light-induced thermoelectric spectroscopy(LITES)sensor based on a multi-pass cell(MPC)with dense spot pattern and a novel quartz tuning fork(QTF)with low resonance frequency is reported in this manuscript.An erbi-um-doped fiber amplifier(EDFA)was employed to amplify the output optical power so that the signal level was further enhanced.The optical path length(OPL)and the ratio of optical path length to volume(RLV)of the MPC is 37.7 m and 13.8 cm^(-2),respectively.A commercial QTF and a self-designed trapezoidal-tip QTF with low frequency of 9461.83 Hz were used as the detectors of the sensor,respectively.The target gas selected to test the performance of the system was acetylene(C2H2).When the optical power was constant at 1000 mW,the minimum detection limit(MDL)of the C2H2-LITES sensor can be achieved 48.3 ppb when using the commercial QTF and 24.6 ppb when using the trapezoid-al-tip QTF.An improvement of the detection performance by a factor of 1.96 was achieved after replacing the commer-cial QTF with the trapezoidal-tip QTF.

Geochemical characteristics and exploration significance of ultra-deep Sinian oil and gas from Well Tashen 5,Tarim Basin,NW China

The Well Tashen 5(TS5),drilled and completed at a vertical depth of 9017 m in the Tabei Uplift of the Tarim Basin,NW China,is the deepest well in Asia.It has been producing both oil and gas from the Sinian at a depth of 8780e8840 m,also the deepest in Asia in terms of oil discovery.In this paper,the geochemical characteristics of Sinian oil and gas from the well were investigated and compared with those of Cambrian oil and gas discovered in the same basin.The oil samples,with Pr/Ph ratio of 0.78 and a whole oil carbon isotopic value of31.6‰,have geochemical characteristics similar to those of Ordovician oils from the No.1 fault in the North Shuntuoguole area(also named Shunbei area)and the Middle Cambrian oil from wells Zhongshen 1(ZS1)and Zhongshen 5(ZS5)of Tazhong Uplift.The maturity of light hydrocarbons,diamondoids and aromatic fractions all suggest an approximate maturity of 1.5%e1.7%Ro for the samples.The(4-+3-)methyldiamantane concentration of the samples is 113.5 mg/g,indicating intense cracking with a cracking degree of about 80%,which is consistent with the high bottom hole temperature(179℃).The Sinian gas samples are dry with a dryness coefficient of 0.97.The gas is a mixture of kerogen-cracking gas and oil-cracking gas and has Ro values ranging between 1.5%and 1.7%,and methane carbon isotopic values of41.6‰.Based on the equivalent vitrinite reflectance(R_(eqv)=1.51%e1.61%)and the thermal evolution of source rocks from the Cambrian Yu'ertusi Formation of the same well,it is proposed that the Sinian oil and gas be mainly sourced from the Cambrian Yu'ertusi Formation during the Himalayan period but probably also be joined by hydrocarbon of higher maturity that migrated from other source rocks in deeper formations.The discovery of Sinian oil and gas from Well TS5 suggests that the ancient ultra-deep strata in the northern Tarim Basin have the potential for finding volatile oil or condensate reservoirs.

Laser‑Induced and MOF‑Derived Metal Oxide/Carbon Composite for Synergistically Improved Ethanol Sensing at Room temperature

Advancements in sensor technology have significantly enhanced atmospheric monitoring.Notably,metal oxide and carbon(MO_(x)/C)hybrids have gained attention for their exceptional sensitivity and room-temperature sensing performance.However,previous methods of synthesizing MO_(x)/C composites suffer from problems,including inhomogeneity,aggregation,and challenges in micropatterning.Herein,we introduce a refined method that employs a metal–organic framework(MOF)as a precursor combined with direct laser writing.The inherent structure of MOFs ensures a uniform distribution of metal ions and organic linkers,yielding homogeneous MO_(x)/C structures.The laser processing facilitates precise micropatterning(<2μm,comparable to typical photolithography)of the MO_(x)/C crystals.The optimized MOF-derived MO_(x)/C sensor rapidly detected ethanol gas even at room temperature(105 and 18 s for response and recovery,respectively),with a broad range of sensing performance from 170 to 3,400 ppm and a high response value of up to 3,500%.Additionally,this sensor exhibited enhanced stability and thermal resilience compared to previous MOF-based counterparts.This research opens up promising avenues for practical applications in MOF-derived sensing devices.

Analysis of CH_(4) and H_(2) Adsorption on Heterogeneous Shale Surfaces Using aMolecular Dynamics Approach

Determining the adsorption of shale gas on complex surfaces remains a challenge in molecular simulation studies.Difficulties essentially stem from the need to create a realistic shale structure model in terms of mineral heterogeneityand multiplicity.Moreover,precise characterization of the competitive adsorption of hydrogen andmethane in shale generally requires the experimental determination of the related adsorptive capacity.In thisstudy,the adsorption of adsorbates,methane(CH_(4)),and hydrogen(H_(2))on heterogeneous shale surface modelsof Kaolinite,Orthoclase,Muscovite,Mica,C_(60),and Butane has been simulated in the frame of a moleculardynamic’s numerical technique.The results show that these behaviors are influenced by pressure and potentialenergy.On increasing the pressure from 500 to 2000 psi,the sorption effect for CH_(4)significantly increasesbut shows a decline at a certain stage(if compared to H_(2)).The research findings also indicate that raw shalehas a higher capacity to adsorb CH_(4)compared to hydrogen.However,in shale,this difference is negligible.

Mechanical Modeling and Analysis of Stability Deterioration of Production Well During Marine Hydrate Depressurization Production

Different from oil and gas production,hydrate reservoirs are shallow and unconsolidated,whose mechanical properties deteriorate with hydrate decomposition.Therefore,the formations will undergo significant subsidence during depressurization,which will destroy the original force state of the production well.However,existing research on the stability of oil and gas production wells assumes the formation to be stable,and lacks consideration of the force exerted on the hydrate production well by formation subsidence caused by hydrate decomposition during production.To fill this gap,this paper proposes an analytical method for the dynamic evolution of the stability of hydrate production well considering the effects of hydrate decomposition.Based on the mechanical model of the production well,the basis for stability analysis has been proposed.A multi-field coupling model of the force state of the production well considering the effect of hydrate decomposition and formation subsidence is established,and a solver is developed.The analytical approach is verified by its good agreement with the results from the numerical method.A case study found that the decomposition of hydrate will increase the pulling-down force and reduce the supporting force,which is the main reason for the stability deterioration.The higher the initial hydrate saturation,the larger the reservoir thickness,and the lower the production pressure,the worse the stability or even instability.This work can provide a theoretical reference for the stability maintaining of the production well.

Failure transition of shear-to-dilation band of rock salt under triaxial stresses

Great potential of underground gas/energy storage in salt caverns seems to be a promising solution to support renewable energy.In the underground storage method,the operating cycle unfortunately may reach up to daily or even hourly,which generates complicated pressures on the salt cavern.Furthermore,the mechanical behavior of rock salt may change and present distinct failure characteristics under different stress states,which affects the performance of salt cavern during the time period of full service.To reproduce a similar loading condition on the cavern surrounding rock mass,the cyclic triaxial loading/unloading tests are performed on the rock salt to explore the mechanical transition behavior and failure characteristics under different confinement.Experimental results show that the rock salt samples pre-sent a diffused shear failure band with significant bulges at certain locations in low confining pressure conditions(e.g.5 MPa,10 MPa and 15 MPa),which is closely related to crystal misorientation and grain boundary sliding.Under the elevated confinement(e.g.20 MPa,30 MPa and 40 MPa),the dilation band dominates the failure mechanism,where the large-size halite crystals are crushed to be smaller size and new pores are developing.The failure transition mechanism revealed in the paper provides additional insight into the mechanical performance of salt caverns influenced by complicated stress states.

Repositioning fertilizer manufacturing subsidies for improving food security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China

China removed fertilizer manufacturing subsidies from 2015 to 2018 to bolster market-oriented reforms and foster environmentally sustainable practices.However,the impact of this policy reform on food security and the environment remains inadequately evaluated.Moreover,although green and low-carbon technologies offer environmental advantages,their widespread adoption is hindered by prohibitively high costs.This study analyzes the impact of removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies and explores the potential feasibility of redirecting fertilizer manufacturing subsidies to invest in the diffusion of these technologies.Utilizing the China Agricultural University Agri-food Systems model,we analyzed the potential for achieving mutually beneficial outcomes regarding food security and environmental sustainability.The findings indicate that removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies has reduced greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from agricultural activities by 3.88 million metric tons,with minimal impact on food production.Redirecting fertilizer manufacturing subsidies to invest in green and low-carbon technologies,including slow and controlled-release fertilizer,organic-inorganic compound fertilizers,and machine deep placement of fertilizer,emerges as a strategy to concurrently curtail GHG emissions,ensure food security,and secure robust economic returns.Finally,we propose a comprehensive set of government interventions,including subsidies,field guidance,and improved extension systems,to promote the widespread adoption of these technologies.

Sealing capacity evaluation of underground gas storage under intricate geological conditions

Evaluating underground gas storage(UGS)sealing capacity is essential for its safe construction and operational efficiency.This involves evaluating both the static sealing capacity of traps during hydrocarbon accumulation and the dynamic sealing capacity of UGS under intensive gas injection and withdrawal,and alternating loads.This study detailed the methodology developed by Sinopec.The approach merges disciplines like geology,geomechanics,and hydrodynamics,employing both dynamic-static and qualitative-quantitative analyses.Sinopec's evaluation methods,grounded in the in situ stress analysis,include mechanistic studies,laboratory tests,geological surveys,stress analysis,and fluid-solid interactions.Through tests on the static and dynamic sealing capacity of UGS,alongside investigations into sealing mechanisms and the geological and geomechanical properties of cap rocks and faults,A geomechanics-rock damage-seepage mechanics dynamic coupling analysis method has been developed to predict in situ stress variations relative to pore pressure changes during UGS operations and evaluate fault sealing capacity and cap rock integrity,thereby setting the maximum operational pressures.Utilizing this evaluation technique,Sinopec has defined performance metrics and criteria for evaluating the sealing capacity of depleted gas reservoirs,enabling preliminary sealing capacity evaluations at UGS sites.These evaluations have significantly informed the design of UGS construction schemes and the evaluation of fault sealing capacity and cap rock integrity during UGS operations.

Risk assessment of oil and gas investment environment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Geological characteristics and exploration breakthroughs of coal rock gas in Carboniferous Benxi Formation,Ordos Basin,NW China

To explore the geological characteristics and exploration potential of the Carboniferous Benxi Formation coal rock gas in the Ordos Basin,this paper presents a systematic research on the coal rock distribution,coal rock reservoirs,coal rock quality,and coal rock gas features,resources and enrichment.Coal rock gas is a high-quality resource distinct from coalbed methane,and it has unique features in terms of burial depth,gas source,reservoir,gas content,and carbon isotopic composition.The Benxi Formation coal rocks cover an area of 16×104km^(2),with thicknesses ranging from 2 m to 25 m,primarily consisting of bright and semi-bright coals with primitive structures and low volatile and ash contents,indicating a good coal quality.The medium-to-high rank coal rocks have the total organic carbon(TOC)content ranging from 33.49%to 86.11%,averaging75.16%.They have a high degree of thermal evolution(Roof 1.2%-2.8%),and a high gas-generating capacity.They also have high stable carbon isotopic values(δ13C1of-37.6‰to-16‰;δ13C2of-21.7‰to-14.3‰).Deep coal rocks develop matrix pores such as gas bubble pores,organic pores,and inorganic mineral pores,which,together with cleats and fractures,form good reservoir spaces.The coal rock reservoirs exhibit the porosity of 0.54%-10.67%(averaging 5.42%)and the permeability of(0.001-14.600)×10^(-3)μm^(2)(averaging 2.32×10^(-3)μm^(2)).Vertically,there are five types of coal rock gas accumulation and dissipation combinations,among which the coal rock-mudstone gas accumulation combination and the coal rock-limestone gas accumulation combination are the most important,with good sealing conditions and high peak values of total hydrocarbon in gas logging.A model of coal rock gas accumulation has been constructed,which includes widespread distribution of medium-to-high rank coal rocks continually generating gas,matrix pores and cleats/fractures in coal rocks acting as large-scale reservoir spaces,tight cap rocks providing sealing,source-reservoir integration,and five types of efficient enrichment patterns(lateral pinchout complex,lenses,low-amplitude structures,nose-like structures,and lithologically self-sealing).According to the geological characteristics of coal rock gas,the Benxi Formation is divided into 8 plays,and the estimated coal rock gas resources with a buried depth of more than 2000 m are more than 12.33×10^(12)m^(3).The above understandings guide the deployment of risk exploration.Two wells drilled accordingly obtained an industrial gas flow,driving the further deployment of exploratory and appraisal wells.Substantial breakthroughs have been achieved,with the possible reserves over a trillion cubic meters and the proved reserves over a hundred billion cubic meters,which is of great significance for the reserves increase and efficient development of natural gas in China.

面向未来低碳道路养护的超薄罩面功能性研究综述

Highway maintenance mileage reached 5.25 million kilometers in China by 2021.Ultra-thin overlay is one of the most commonly used maintenance technologies,which can significantly enhance the economic and environmental benefits of pavements.To promote the low-carbon development of ultrathin overlays,this paper mainly studied the mechanism and influencing factors of several ultra-thin overlay functions.Firstly,the skid resistance,noise reduction,rutting resistance,and crack resistance of ultrathin overlays were evaluated.The results indicated that the high-quality aggregates improved the skid and rutting resistance of ultra-thin overlay by 5%-20%.The optimized gradations and modified binders reduced noise of ultra-thin overlay by 0.4-6.0 dB.The high viscosity modified binders improved the rutting resistance of ultra-thin overlay by about 10%-130%.Basalt fiber improved the cracking resistance of ultra-thin overlay by more than 20%.Due to the thinner thickness and better road performance,the performance-based engineering cost of ultra-thin overlay was reduced by about 30%-40%compared with conventional overlays.Secondly,several environmentally friendly functions of ultra-thin overlay were investigated,including snow melting and deicing,exhaust gas purification and pavement cooling.The lower thickness of ultra-thin overlay was conducive to the diffusion of chloride-based materials to the pavement surface.Therefore,the snow melting effect of self-ice-melting was better.In addition,the ultra-thin overlay mixture containing photocatalytic materials could decompose 20%-50%of the exhaust gas.The colored ultra-thin overlay was able to reduce the temperature of the pavement by up to 8.1℃.The temperature difference between the upper and lower surfaces of the ultra-thin overlay containing thermal resistance materials could reach up to 12.8℃.In addition,numerous typical global engineering applications of functional ultra-thin overlay were summarized.This review can help better understand the functionality of ultra-thin overlays and promote the realization of future multi-functional and low-carbon road maintenance.

Development and technology status of energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs

Utilizing energy storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs can improve productivity while reducing power costs and is one of the best ways to achieve synergistic development of"Carbon Peak–Carbon Neutral"and"Underground Resource Utiliza-tion".Starting from the development of Compressed Air Energy Storage(CAES)technology,the site selection of CAES in depleted gas and oil reservoirs,the evolution mechanism of reservoir dynamic sealing,and the high-flow CAES and injection technology are summarized.It focuses on analyzing the characteristics,key equipment,reservoir construction,application scenarios and cost analysis of CAES projects,and sorting out the technical key points and existing difficulties.The devel-opment trend of CAES technology is proposed,and the future development path is scrutinized to provide reference for the research of CAES projects in depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

Nelson-Siegel模型中的时变载荷因子及其对提高经济形势预测的重要作用

现有文献中Nelson-Siegel模型大多将载荷因子λ提前固定为常数或作为待估静态参数,较少考虑载荷因子λ的时变化。本文基于得分驱动时变参数建模方法,在状态空间模型框架内考虑时变载荷因子λ,构建GAS-λ-DNS模型,并提取相应时变载荷因子。结果显示,时变载荷因子λ_(t)呈现出极强的波动性,同时与经济周期密切相关;将时变载荷因子λ_(t)应用于预测工业产出增速,发现载荷因子相比于传统宏观预测因子具有额外增量信息,引入λ_(t)可以显著提高模型预测精度。本文结论对Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构建模和宏观经济预测因子选取具有参考价值。

Reservoir characteristics and formation model of Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Through core observation,thin section identification,X-ray diffraction analysis,scanning electron microscopy,and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption and isothermal adsorption experiments,the lithology and pore characteristics of the Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin were analyzed to reveal the formation and evolution process of the bauxite reservoirs.A petrological nomenclature and classification scheme for bauxitic rocks based on three units(aluminum hydroxides,iron minerals and clay minerals)is proposed.It is found that bauxitic mudstone is in the form of dense massive and clastic structures,while the(clayey)bauxite is of dense massive,pisolite,oolite,porous soil and clastic structures.Both bauxitic mudstone and bauxite reservoirs develop dissolution pores,intercrystalline pores,and microfractures as the dominant gas storage space,with the porosity less than 10% and mesopores in dominance.The bauxite series in the North China Craton can be divided into five sections,i.e.,ferrilite(Shanxi-style iron ore,section A),bauxitic mudstone(section B),bauxite(section C),bauxite mudstone(debris-containing,section D)and dark mudstone-coal section(section E).The burrow/funnel filling,lenticular,layered/massive bauxite deposits occur separately in the karst platforms,gentle slopes and low-lying areas.The karst platforms and gentle slopes are conducive to surface water leaching,with strong karstification,well-developed pores,large reservoir thickness and good physical properties,but poor strata continuity.The low-lying areas have poor physical properties but relatively continuous and stable reservoirs.The gas enrichment in bauxites is jointly controlled by source rock,reservoir rock and fractures.This recognition provides geological basis for the exploration and development of natural gas in the Upper Carboniferous in the study area and similar bauxite systems.