南方高丛蓝浆果‘南月’实生后代果实特性的变异分析

对南方高丛蓝浆果（Vaccinium corymbosum hybrids）品种‘南月’（‘Southmoon’）实生后代的单果质量、果实横径、可溶性固形物含量、单果种子数、果色、口感以及蒂痕类型等果实特征的变异进行了分析。结果表明，‘南月’实生后代的单果质量为0．64～2．15g，果实横径为10．0～16．4mm；果实可溶性固形物含量为9．1％-15．8％，其中有37％的单株果实可溶性固形物含量在12．0％以上；单果种子数为3～93粒，有18％的单株单果种子数小于25粒；果实颜色以蓝紫色和黑蓝紫色为主，比例分别为50％和42％；果实口感以中等和好2个等级为主，比例分别为50％和40％。在对果实的主要特征和经济性状进行评估的基础上，初步筛选出21个‘南月’实生后代优良单株。

Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system

The monthly prediction skill for tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the South China Sea(SCS)during the typhoon season(July to November)was evaluated using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system.Specifically,the prediction skill of the system at a 10-day lead time for monthly TC activity is given based on 35-year(1981–2015)hindcasts with 24 ensemble members.The results show that FGOALS-f2 can capture the climatology of TC track densities in each month,but there is a delay in the monthly southward movement in the area of high track densities of TCs.The temporal correlation coefficient of TC frequency fluctuates across the different months,among which the highest appears in October(0.59)and the lowest in August(0.30).The rank correlation coefficients of TC track densities are relatively higher(R>0.6)in July,September,and November,while those in August and October are relatively lower(R within 0.2 to 0.6).For real-time prediction of TCs in 2020(July to November),FGOALS-f2 demonstrates a skillful probabilistic prediction of TC genesis and movement.Besides,the system successfully forecasts the correct sign of monthly anomalies of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy for 2020(July to November)in the SCS.

THE INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE IN RAINY SEASON AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TROPICAL UPPER LAYER TEAT CONTENT

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS In winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.

Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873-2005

Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI） based on monthly precipitation data for 1873-2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873-1885, 1904-1923, 1938-1960 and 1983-2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886-1903, 1924-1937 and 1961-1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2-7-year band in around 1880-1890, 1910-1950 and 1970-1990, and at 8-15-year band in 1920-1960 and 1965-2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOl and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2-7- and 8-15-year bands during 1930-1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOl and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years.

Submonthly timescale oscillation characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon and its effect on the temperature of southwest China in 2010

Using NCEP/NCAR R2 reanalysis daily data and daily meteorologicalobservational data of southwest China in 2010, this paper studied the submonthlytimescale oscillation characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and itseffect on the temperature of southwest China in 2010 by bandpass filtering, wavelettransformation, composite analysis and correlation analysis. The main conclusions areas follows: The EAWM in 2010 was dominated by low-frequency oscillations of about 7-,12-, and 30-day periods. There existed obviously negative correlation between theEAWM and the winter temperature in southwest China on submonthly, quasi-weeklyand quasi-biweekly timescales, and negative correlation was more obvious on thequasi-biweekly than the quasi-weekly timescale. There was significant difference in thedistribution of high, middle and low layer of the troposphere when the EAWM was onthe submonthly, quasi-one-week and quasi-two-week timescales in the positive andnegative phase. In the positive EAWM phase, the upper-level subtropical westerly jet isstronger and the East Asia trough is deeper, thus it is favorable for the dominance ofmore powerful north wind and lower temperature in southwest China. On the contrary,in the negative EAWM phase, the upper-level subtropical westerly jet is weaker and theEast Asia trough is shallower, thus unfavorable for the north wind and lowertemperature in southwest China.

THE ANALYSIS ON THE STATISTICAL CHARACTER OF QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND STRONG WIND FREQUENCY USING REMOTE SENSOR DATA FROM QUIKSCAT

The statistical character of QuikSCAT scatterometer winds is showed. And Monthly change and special distribution character of strong wind frequency and monthly wind fields in South China Sea is analyzed. It is shown in the result that the QuikSCAT scatterometer winds can be relied upon for the South China Sea; two winds, one the wintertime northeasterly and the other summertime southwesterly. The northeasterly centers at the Bashi Strait and Taiwam Strait and its secondary center and the maximum center of the southwesterly are in the central and southern South China Sea.