Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

Effects of formal credit on pastoral household expense: Evidence from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China

Formal credit is critical in agricultural production,allowing more expenditure and productive input,thereby improving farmers'welfare.In pastoral China,formal financial institutions are gradually increasing.However,a limited understanding remains of how formal credit affects herders'household expenses.Based on a survey of 544 herders from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China,this study adopted the propensity score matching approach to identify the effect of formal credit on herders'total household expenses,daily expenses,and productive expenses.The results found that average age,grassland mortgage,and other variables significantly affected herders'participation in formal credit.Formal credit could significantly improve household expenses,especially productive expenses.A heterogeneity analysis showed that formal credit had a greater impact on the household total expense for those at higher levels of wealth;however,it significantly affected the productive expense of herders at lower wealth levels.Moreover,the mediating effect indicated that formal credit could affect herders'household income,thus influencing their household expenses.Finally,this study suggests that policies should improve herders'accessibility to formal credit.

Pricing Catastrophe Options with Credit Risk in a Regime-Switching Model

In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space.By using the measure change technique,we derive the price expressions of catastrophe put options.Moreover,we conduct some numerical analysis to demonstrate how the parameters of the model affect the price of the catastrophe put option.

A Self-Adapting and Efficient Dandelion Algorithm and Its Application to Feature Selection for Credit Card Fraud Detection

A dandelion algorithm(DA) is a recently developed intelligent optimization algorithm for function optimization problems. Many of its parameters need to be set by experience in DA,which might not be appropriate for all optimization problems. A self-adapting and efficient dandelion algorithm is proposed in this work to lower the number of DA's parameters and simplify DA's structure. Only the normal sowing operator is retained;while the other operators are discarded. An adaptive seeding radius strategy is designed for the core dandelion. The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performance on the standard test functions with less time consumption than its competitive peers. In addition, the proposed algorithm is applied to feature selection for credit card fraud detection(CCFD), and the results indicate that it can obtain higher classification and detection performance than the-state-of-the-art methods.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of seed rain and soil seed bank of artificial Caragana korshinskii Kom. forest in the Tengger Desert, China

Vegetation restoration and reconstruction are effective approaches to desertification control and achieving social and economic sustainability in desert areas.However,the self-succession ability of native plants during the later periods of vegetation restoration remains unclear.Therefore,this study was conducted to bridge the knowledge gap by investigating the regeneration dynamics of artificial forest under natural conditions.The information of seed rain and soil seed bank was collected and quantified from an artificial Caragana korshinskii Kom.forest in the Tengger Desert,China.The germination tests were conducted in a laboratory setting.The analysis of species quantity and diversity in seed rain and soil seed bank was conducted to assess the impact of different durations of sand fixation(60,40,and 20 a)on the progress of vegetation restoration and ecological conditions in artificial C.korshinskii forest.The results showed that the top three dominant plant species in seed rain were Echinops gmelinii Turcz.,Eragrostis minor Host.,and Agropyron mongolicum Keng.,and the top three dominant plant species in soil seed bank were E.minor,Chloris virgata Sw.,and E.gmelinii.As restoration period increased,the density of seed rain and soil seed bank increased first and then decreased.While for species richness,as restoration period increased,it gradually increased in seed rain but decreased in soil seed bank.There was a positive correlation between seed rain density and soil seed bank density among all the three restoration periods.The species similarity between seed rain or soil seed bank and aboveground vegetation decreased with the extension of restoration period.The shape of the seeds,specifically those with external appendages such as spines and crown hair,clearly had an effect on their dispersal,then resulting in lower seed density in soil seed bank.In addition,precipitation was a crucial factor in promoting rapid germination,also resulting in lower seed density in soil seed bank.Our findings provide valuable insights for guiding future interventions during the later periods of artificial C.korshinskii forest,such as sowing and restoration efforts using unmanned aerial vehicles.

Construction of BDS Spatiotemporal Information Agricultural Product Digital Credit System

Spatiotemporal information,positioning and navigation services have become important elements of new type infrastructure.The rapid development of global digital trade provides a large-scale application scenario for the use of Beidou Navigation Satellite System(BDS)spatiotemporal information to support the certification of origin of agricultural products.The BDS spatiotemporal information agricultural product digital credit system uses such modules as BDS,spatiotemporal information collection,spatiotemporal coding,and spatiotemporal blockchain.It incorporates multi-level joint supervision mechanisms such as government,associations,and users.Starting from the initial production link of agricultural products,it realizes the correspondence and locking of online and offline products,effectively improves the integrity and credibility of information in the production process,finished product quality and circulation process of products,effectively manages the green production and anti-channel conflicts of producers,and provides credible information for consumers,thus realizing the digital credit certification of products.The successful practice of characteristic agricultural products in Yunnan Province has verified the application ability of the BDS spatiotemporal information agricultural product digital credit system.This system has played a significant role in promoting the online and offline locking,credible information,effective supervision and high quality and high price of characteristic agricultural products from the field.The BDS provides services for global digital trade and contributes to the further enhancement of the global application scale of GNSS.

The Impact of the Monetary Policy During the COVID-19 in the Brazilian Banking Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an outbreak on the global productive chains,transforming companies and society in general.Governments adopted anticyclical policies such as basic interest rates reduction as response.Brazil basic interest rate is denominated Selic.The application of these policies requires the protagonist of bank’s financial intermediation.This study aims to verify two events-under the perspective of the efficient markets’theory.The first is the communication of the first death by COVID-19-and the subsequent,Selic rate reduction to 2%p.a.-and its effects on bank’s shares prices.The hypotheses presented are:H1-The announcement of the first death by COVID-19 negatively impacts the banks’shares returns and H2-The announcement of the Selic interest rate-during the COVID-19-positively impacts the return of the banks’shares.We adopt event study methodology in a final sample of nine and 15 banks to Events 1 and 2 respectively.The results confirm H1 as well as the semi-strong informational efficiency market.H2 is not confirmed.Results confirm the non-effectiveness of the anticyclical policy of basic interest rate reduction.This contributes to the discussion about the impacts of COVID-19 and the efficacy of anticyclical policies.

ISO Certification and Technical Efficiency in the Banking Sector:An Evidence from WAEMU’s Countries Using the DEA Method

In the view of the international organization of standardization,the introduction of ISO standards is typical of quality management systems oriented towards strengthening the efficiency of enterprises.Business banks are not excluded from this requirement.The current study aims to evaluate the effect of ISO certification on the technical performance of WAEMU banks.Using BCEAO data(2020),the DEA model and Tobit estimates show that ISO certification has no effect on the efficiency scores of the banks in the sample.It is therefore appropriate for these banks to work on improving their business climate.

Research on the Impact of Digital Transformation on the Business Performance of Commercial Banks

Nowadays,with the development of the digital economy,commercial banks are actively conducting digital transformation.Studying the impact of the digital transformation of commercial banks on their operating performance can help commercial banks form a stronger core competitiveness and promote high-quality financial development.Based on the above background,this article first describes the status and development of digital transformation and development of commercial banks,and secondly analyzes whether Chinese commercial banks’digital transformation is conducive to improving their operating performance.Thirdly,by selecting the data of the listed commercial banks in the ten years of 2012–2022,this article obtains the empirical testing of the digital transformation on different property rights.Finally,the higher the level of digitalization,the higher the digital level,the more significantly promotes the performance of commercial banks.Finally,based on the above analysis,this article puts forward feasibility opinions on commercial banks and related regulators.

基于Auto bank的某水库大坝渗流安全评价

以富水水库为例,依托达西定律和渗流理论基础,并结合Auto bank有限元软件分析了水库在正常高水位、设计洪水位、校核洪水位下坝体及坝基的渗流状况,计算结果表明水库日渗漏量远小于允许日渗漏量,水库渗漏量满足规范要求。大坝各工况最大渗透坡降均小于规范允许值,渗透变形满足规范要求。左坝肩存绕渗现象,建议加强监测。

Application of the Credit Metrics in the Credit Risk Management of Commercial Banks

Credit risk is one of the main risks the commercial banks faces all over the world,especially in the risk structure of the banks of China.In order to control credit risk more scientifically,we shall connect the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis.Put forward by J.P.Morgan Credit Metrics model is the application of the VaR in the field of credit risk,showing great advantage in quantitative bonds and credit risk of loan.This paper studies the Credit Metrics model and analyzes the hypothesis and framework of this model,attempting to explore the application of the model in China in order to promote the realization of the risk quantification of the commercial banks of China.

Global Financial Crisis and Accounting Rules： The Implications of the New Exposure Draft （ED） Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses on the Evaluation of Banking Company Loans

During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards （IAS） 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group （FCAG）, and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project （partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB）） aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses： an exposure draft （ED） Financial Instrument： Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document （SD） Financial Instrument： Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB＇s decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model （ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses）.

A dynamic credit risk assessment model with data mining techniques:evidence from Iranian banks

Giving loans and issuing credit cards are two of the main concerns of banks in that they include the risks of non-payment.According to the Basel 2 guidelines,banks need to develop their own credit risk assessment systems.Some banks have such systems;nevertheless they have lost a large amount of money simply because the models they used failed to accurately predict customers’defaults.Traditionally,banks have used static models with demographic or static factors to model credit risk patterns.However,economic factors are not independent of political fluctuations,and as the political environment changes,the economic environment evolves with it.This has been especially evident in Iran after the 2008-2016 USA sanctions,as many previously reliable customers became unable to repay their debt(i.e.,became bad customers).Nevertheless,a dynamic model that can accommodate fluctuating politicoeconomic factors has never been developed.In this paper,we propose a model that can accommodate factors associated with politico-economic crises.Human judgement is removed from the customer evaluation process.We used a fuzzy inference system to create a rule base using a set of uncertainty predictors.First,we train an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS)using monthly data from a customer profile dataset.Then,using the newly defined factors and their underlying rules,a second round of assessment begins in a fuzzy inference system.Thus,we present a model that is both more flexible to politico-economic factors and can yield results that are max compatible with real-life situations.Comparison between the prediction made by proposed model and a real non-performing loan indicates little difference between them.Credit risk specialists also approve the results.The major innovation of this research is producing a table of bad customers on a monthly basis and creating a dynamic model based on the table.The latest created model is used for assessing customers henceforth,so the whole process of customer assessment need not be repeated.We assert that this model is a good substitute for the static models currently in use as it can outperform traditional models,especially in the face of economic crisis.

ISMB:多核系统中利用Bank分区实现共享库隔离

动态随机存取存储器DRAM一直以来以其低功耗、高性价比和良好的扩展性等优点作为计算机内存的最佳选择。为了提高内存的访问速度,DRAM中的每个Bank都有一个行缓冲区,它可以有效地提升局部性良好的应用程序的性能。然而在多核系统中,DRAM被系统中的所有Core共享,因此对内存的并发访问会导致Bank行缓冲区冲突问题的产生,从而导致内存访问延迟的增大。共享库作为一种共享资源,使Bank行缓冲区冲突问题更加严重。虽然目前有一些基于DRAM Bank分区技术的解决方案可以有效缓解由进程访问私有内存导致的Bank行缓冲区冲突问题,但是这些解决方案无法解决访问共享库引起的Bank行缓冲区冲突问题。该文提出了一种在多核系统中利用Bank分区实现共享库隔离的方案(ISMB)。ISMB使运行在同一个Core上的进程只能访问属于该Core的共享库的副本,因此ISMB消除了共享库导致的Bank行缓冲区冲突问题。对比实验结果表明,ISMB能够有效地提升系统隔离性能,在使用ISMB的情况下,SPEC CPU2006基准测试程序的减速率最大可降低26.3%。

A Tentative Analysis of the Use of Potential by Commercial Bank in Controlling Credit Scale

This article brings forward the conception of potential and filed potential in bank's competition under the inspiration of law of electric current in electrodynamics. It discusses the impact of potential shifting on commercial bank's credit scale and builds up a model for commercial bank to control the scale by credit pricing and risk policy in a dynamic way, and also gives some advice to domestic commercial bank for improving loan business, aiming to settle down the existing credit management problems.

Issues concerning Development of Consumer Credit Business in China's Agricultural Bank

This article introduces the status quo of consumer credit business in China's agricultural bank,indicating that the scale of China's consumer credit business is expanded year by year;the growth of consumer credit business slows down;housing loans grow rapidly.We analyze issues concerning development of consumer credit business in agricultural bank as follows:single variety of consumer credit business makes the operating scope narrow;the formality of consumer credit business is trivial,abating consumers' will to borrow;consumers' consumer attitudes are stale,yet to be further changed;the loan interest of consumer credit is beyond the majority of consumers' actual ability to pay;the existing regulations and systems are not sound;the risk prevention mechanism is not perfect.Based on this,we put forward the following countermeasures and proposals for further improving consumer credit business in China's agricultural bank:first,formulate reasonable marketing strategy of consumer credit business;second,establish and improve the internal management mechanism;third,establish and improve risk assessment system;fourth,improve consumer credit legal system.

Airtime Credit Banking: From Two Applications to One Application

This paper proposes how airtime credit could be used for banking purposes. The aim is to provide a means of converting airtime credit of any network service provider to a credit alert for a particular bank account user. This paper shows a simple implementation of the proposed system. The advantage of the proposed system is that it allows customers the right to convert their purchased airtime credit to a credit alert at anytime when they no longer wish to use the airtime credit again. Furthermore, it explains the limitations of the proposed system considering regulations in different countries of deployment. This approach could be extended to cover other vouchers for banking applications as well.

Impact of learning through credit and value creation on the efficiency of Japanese commercial banks

This study investigates the learning curve of commercial banks regarding the efficiency of credit and value creation.However,current empirical methods for accessing the learning curve in organizations are not suitable for use in financial institutions.Considering bank-specific characteristics,we introduce a dynamic learning curve using a cost function adjusted to capture learning-by-doing in banks.Using the model,we test several hypotheses on the impact of bank intermediary experience(learning)on the efficiency of credit and value creation in Japanese commercial banks.The findings show that bank intermediary learning significantly improves the cost efficiency gain in the gross value created,total credit created,and investment.However,bank intermediary experience has no significant effect on the efficiency of the economic value created for all the banks analyzed.These findings have practical implications for evaluating cost dynamics in bank credit and value creation,risk management,lending to the real sector,and shareholder value creation.

Enhancing Access to Bank Credit for Small-Scale Farmers in Kisumu and Kiambu Districts, Kenya Through Public-Private Partnership Initiative

In Kenya, small-scale fanning has immense potential in poverty reduction. The growth of farming activities requires sustainable access to affordable credit to boost and sustain production. This study is initiated to investigate factors influencing access to bank credit by small-scale farmers in Kisumu and Kiambu Districts, Kenya. It is necessitated by lack of a comprehensive study documenting the effectiveness of the partnership initiative in improving access to credit for small-scale farmers. The study seeks to address the following concerns： what factors influence access to bank credit by small-scale farmers under the initiative？ Are small-scale farmers in various parts of the country accessing bank credit equally？ Through which sources do farmers get to know about credit products provided through the initiative？ Primary data was collected from 144 farmers in Kiambu and 127 farmers in Kisumu, sampled using systematic random procedure. The cross-sectional survey design was applied to guide the research process. Quantitative analysis generated cross-tabulations with chi-square and binary logistic regression. The study found that out of 144 credit applicants in Kiambu about 56.3% were successful, while in Kisumu only 37.8% were successful. Access to bank credit was significantly associated with farmers＇ gender, education level, income level, farm size, and farming experience. Besides, women were 1.3 times less likely to access bank credit than men. In terms of regional variation, a Kiambu farmer was 2.7 times more likely to obtain bank credit than a Kisumu farmer. The initiative is an innovative approach for enhancing access to bank credit; however, its potential has not been fully exploited. The study recommends the need： to inform farmers about credit products to clear misconceptions and myths associated with bank credit; develop innovative financing packages for small-scale farmers that are also gender-sensitive; and to initiate a training program targeting farmers with appropriate information.

Bank Criminal Act： Case of Fraud Using Letter of Credit-Bank as a Victim

Letter of Credit （L/C） is a payment method offered by bank for settling the foreign trade. The existence of L/C is a means capable of providing guarantee for the interests of the sellers and buyers. In the event of default by either party, either the seller or the buyer, the bank as the L/C issuer will provide payment guarantee for the seller or the waiver of payment for the buyer. The bank’s risk in issuing the L/C is regarding with the weakness of L/C. In Article 5 of UCP 600, it is emphasized that in transactions using L/C, banks deal only with documents, not dealing with goods, or other implementation. In Article 14a of UCP 600 it is affirmed that the L/C payments are based on the suitability between the L/C requirements and the submitted documents viewed under “on their face”. The bank authority as the guarantor which only deals with the documents in making payments causing the L/C instrument is often used in fraud against the bank. Many banking fraud cases that occur in Indonesia take advantage of L/C weakness. This paper will discuss the occurrence of criminal acts in the banking by exploiting weaknesses in the L/C that makes the bank as a victim. In addition, this paper aims to explain the effort to overcome the criminal acts that occurred at the issuing bank as a victim by using L/C. The discussion in this paper emphasized the application of laws and regulations applicable to indict the perpetrators of criminal acts in the banking sector by exploiting weaknesses of L/C. Aspects of the discussion of a criminal offense are based on the Act No. 10 of 1998 concerning banking, and under the provisions of the Criminal Code.