The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditio...The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.展开更多
Expediting the RMB internationalization in countries along the Belt and Road routes will knock down bottlenecks affecting Chinese investors in exchange rates, financing, and debts, and increase capital resources for t...Expediting the RMB internationalization in countries along the Belt and Road routes will knock down bottlenecks affecting Chinese investors in exchange rates, financing, and debts, and increase capital resources for these countries.展开更多
Promoting the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America is not only a requirement of the China-Latin American relationship and of China’s reform and opening-up policy in the financial sectors, but is also a st...Promoting the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America is not only a requirement of the China-Latin American relationship and of China’s reform and opening-up policy in the financial sectors, but is also a strategic choice. With the support of internal, external and bilateral factors,China and Latin American countries have seen a lot progress in RMB trade settlement, investment, financing, and so on, yet Latin American countries’ willingness to use the RMB is still low, there is an obvious shortage of exchange mechanisms, and currency cooperation between them may face more obstacles as China-US competition intensifies. Under these circumstances, in order to further promote the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America, China should seize the opportunity of Latin America’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and their demand for currency diversification, as well as the friction between the US-Latin American relationship, start reducing the shortage of institutional exchange mechanisms, and plan for the RMB internationalization process in Latin America at a strategic level.展开更多
President Xi Jinping put forward that, "China will further push the open economy to a higher level by enlarging its scale, expanding its area, and deepening its degree." This proposal provides new perspectiv...President Xi Jinping put forward that, "China will further push the open economy to a higher level by enlarging its scale, expanding its area, and deepening its degree." This proposal provides new perspectives for RMB internationalization. The new path of RMB internationalization shall be achieved under the Belt and Road Initiative and be a new option that is di erent from the "Three-Stage Theory" and regional monetary cooperation. RMB internationalization can only be realized through a government-driven mode with Chinese characteristics which shows the fundamental di erence from the internationalization of other currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The Chinese government can realize the strategic objective of RMB internationalization through improving national governance, applying policies and tools for macroeconomic regulation, and implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the operation of its nancial industry, the Silk Road Fund(SRF), and that of regional banks like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and the BRICS New Development Bank(NDB). RMB internationalization is an important objective of China's political and economic development. Efforts must be made to steadily promote market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate and its forming mechanism, and reform of capital account convertibility so that RMB can become the leading global reserve currency. Meanwhile, China will also undertake more responsibilities as a major power for stable development of the international economy and nance.展开更多
The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a t...The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.展开更多
基金Projects(71874210,71633006,71874207,71974208)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX049)supported by Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China+1 种基金Project(2018dcyj031)supported by Postgraduate Survey Research Foundation of Central South University,ChinaProject(17K103)supported by the Innovation Platform Open Fund Project of Hunan Education Department,China。
文摘The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.
文摘Expediting the RMB internationalization in countries along the Belt and Road routes will knock down bottlenecks affecting Chinese investors in exchange rates, financing, and debts, and increase capital resources for these countries.
文摘Promoting the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America is not only a requirement of the China-Latin American relationship and of China’s reform and opening-up policy in the financial sectors, but is also a strategic choice. With the support of internal, external and bilateral factors,China and Latin American countries have seen a lot progress in RMB trade settlement, investment, financing, and so on, yet Latin American countries’ willingness to use the RMB is still low, there is an obvious shortage of exchange mechanisms, and currency cooperation between them may face more obstacles as China-US competition intensifies. Under these circumstances, in order to further promote the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America, China should seize the opportunity of Latin America’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and their demand for currency diversification, as well as the friction between the US-Latin American relationship, start reducing the shortage of institutional exchange mechanisms, and plan for the RMB internationalization process in Latin America at a strategic level.
文摘President Xi Jinping put forward that, "China will further push the open economy to a higher level by enlarging its scale, expanding its area, and deepening its degree." This proposal provides new perspectives for RMB internationalization. The new path of RMB internationalization shall be achieved under the Belt and Road Initiative and be a new option that is di erent from the "Three-Stage Theory" and regional monetary cooperation. RMB internationalization can only be realized through a government-driven mode with Chinese characteristics which shows the fundamental di erence from the internationalization of other currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The Chinese government can realize the strategic objective of RMB internationalization through improving national governance, applying policies and tools for macroeconomic regulation, and implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the operation of its nancial industry, the Silk Road Fund(SRF), and that of regional banks like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and the BRICS New Development Bank(NDB). RMB internationalization is an important objective of China's political and economic development. Efforts must be made to steadily promote market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate and its forming mechanism, and reform of capital account convertibility so that RMB can become the leading global reserve currency. Meanwhile, China will also undertake more responsibilities as a major power for stable development of the international economy and nance.
文摘The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.
