Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

Migration and accumulation mechanisms and main controlling factors of tight oil enrichment in a continental lake basin

Based on the typical dissection of various onshore tight oil fields in China,the tight oil migration and accumulation mechanism and enrichment-controlling factors in continental lake basins are analyzed through nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)displacement physical simulation and Lattice Boltzmann numerical simulation by using the samples of source rock,reservoir rock and crude oil.In continental lake basins,the dynamic forces driving hydrocarbon generation and expulsion of high-quality source rocks are the foundational power that determines the charging efficiency and accumulation effect of tight oil,the oil migration resistance is a key element that influences the charging efficiency and accumulation effect of tight oil,and the coupling of charging force with pore-throat resistance in tight reservoir controls the tight oil accumulation and sweet spot enrichment.The degree of tight oil enrichment in continental lake basins is controlled by four factors:source rock,reservoir pore-throat size,anisotropy of reservoir structure,and fractures.The high-quality source rocks control the near-source distribution of tight oil,reservoir physical properties and pore-throat size are positively correlated with the degree of tight oil enrichment,the anisotropy of reservoir structure reveals that the parallel migration rate is the highest,and intralayer fractures can improve the migration and accumulation efficiency and the oil saturation.

Assessment of Heavy Metal Pollution in Estuarine Surface Sediments of Tangxi River in Chaohu Lake Basin

A total of 30 surface sediments samples from the estuary wetland of the Tangxi River, Chaohu Lake Basin were obtained and tested. Enrichment factor （EF） and geoaccumulation index （Igeo） as well as multivariate statistical analysis methods including Factor Analysis （FA） and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis （HCA） were applied for the assessment of heavy metal pollution in surface sediments. The results of EF values show that the pollution of copper （Cu） and cadmium （Cd） occurs in the estuarine sediments, and that zinc （Zn）, lead （Pb） and chrome （Cr） may originate from crustal materials or natural weathering process. The mean EF values of the five heavy metals are in the decreasing order： Cu〉Cd）Zn〉Pb〉Cr. Based on the lgeo of target heavy metals, the surface sediments collected from the study area can be approximately categorized as unpolluted with Zn, Pb and Cr, and moderately polluted with Cu and Cd. The degree of heavy metal pollution decreases in the order of Cu〉Cd〉Zn〉Pb〉Cr. Three groups of pollution factors are presented from FA： Zn-TOC, Cu-Cd and Cr-Pb, which respectively accounte for 27.22%, 25.20% and 21.05% of variance. By means of HCA, a total number of seven groups are distinguished from 30 sampling sites. Results indicate that Cu and Cd are the prior controlled pollutants in the estuarine sediments of the Tangxi River.

Flume simulation of wave-induced release of internal dissolved nitrogen in Taihu Lake,China

A wave flume simulator was used to study internal nitrogen release from the surface sediment collected from Taihu Lake, China. Particulate nitrogen concentrations were positively correlated with the concentrations of suspended solids, primarily from surface erosion related to the shear stress and duration of wave action. In response to 4 cm- and 10 cm-high wave production representing waves generated in Taihu Lake by gentle and gusty winds, respectively, the mean dynamic release rate of ammonium （NH4＋） from the sediment to the overlying water was 1 × 10-3 mg/（m2.s） and the NH4＋ concentration in the overlying water increased by 0.016 mg/L, indicating that waves resulting from strong wind can induce the rapid release of dissolved nitrogen from Taihu Lake sediments. The decrease in interstitial NH4＋ concentrations at all sediment depths was associated with an increase in NH4＋ concentrations in the overlying water by 0.01 mg/L, showing that sediment below the eroded layer was the main source of internal nitrogen release. Changes in the interstitial dissolved oxygen and NH4＋ concentrations showed that wave-induced pore water movement can greatly increase the diffusion rate, and that these 15 cm. Diffusion induced by pore water movement sediment layer in Taihu Lake. effects can influence the sediment to a depth of at least may be very important for the formation of an active

Coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in an arid lake basin of China

Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Simulation of the dynamic disturbance characteristics of the soft sediment in the Diexi ancient dammed lake,China

In an earlier study of the Diexi ancient dammed lake along the Minjiang River in Southwest China,10 disturbed layers with envelope and flame structures were found in more than 240 m of lacustrine sediments.In this paper,the soft-sediment disturbances caused by earthquakes in the Diexi ancient dammed lake were studied based on field investigations and laboratory core observations.A two-to three-degree-of-freedom spring-type earthquake simulation vibration table was used to carry out disturbance tests on lacustrine sediments under different dynamic conditions.The results support the following conclusions:(1)The disturbance layers in the lacustrine sediments were caused by strong earthquakes in the region.(2)The characteristics of the disturbance layers are related to the seismic parameters and the degree of sediment consolidation.(3)The greater the earthquake intensity is,the greater the disturbance amplitude is;moreover,the lower the consolidation degree is,the greater the disturbance amplitude.(4)The simulation tests verify that the disturbance layers in the sediments of the Diexi ancient dammed lake correspond to strong earthquakes in the region.These results are valuable for ongoing palaeoseismic research in the region.

Lake sediment resuspension and caused phosphate release——a simulation study

Intact sediment cores and wet/dried surficial sediments sampled from the two sublakes in Taihu Lake, Meiliang Bay and Wuli Lake, were incubated in the laboratory to determine the effects of resuspension on internal phosphorus loading by simulating different resuspension events. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) release from undisturbed core sediment sampled in the Meiliang Bay and Wuli Lake in July 1998 was 1.53 mg/m(2) and 2.24 mg/m(2) within 4 days, respectively. However during one hour experimental simulation of resuspension, SRP increased by 0.041 mg/L and 0.077 mg/L in die above cores, which indicate that a typical resuspension event in the take would be accompanied by the release of 10.77 mgSRP/m(2) and 23.1 mgSRP/m(2), respectively. The internal phosphorus loading induced by resuspensian is estimated to be 8 - 10 times greater than the release from undisturbed sediment. SRP release from the dried sediments during simulation of resuspension was mainly dependent on the disturbing intensity. Only when the wind strength gets to certain level, the influence of wind speed on phosphorus release appears significant, indicating that an exchangeable P pool, capable of altering equilibrium conditions in the take areas, is built up under strongly wind-exposed resuspension events.

Sedimentation retention basin utilization for best management practice

Approaches to the artificial impoundment and theoretical design of sedimentation retention basin are reviewed with particular attention to best management practice(BMP) to control agriculture and surface runoff. Sediments retention basins are the small version of farm pond used where a criteria of farm pond is not met. Such basin traps the pollutants and suspended solids prior to entry into streams and lakes. The study is focused with special reference to the assessment and control of non point source pollution(NPSP) from the sub basin area of Tai Lake in the Xishan County of Wuxi City of China. The author suggested two different approaches to conduct this study including theoretical design for sedimentation retention basin and computation of flow, sediment transport and deposition during the artificial impoundment of retention basin for BMP's utilization. Theoretical design will provide a useful function as a first line defense against the movement of sediments and transport of pollutants into the Tai Lake while the assessment of sediments deposition will help to make its proper use and periodic cleanup.

Lithologic Hydrocarbon Deposits in Rift Lake Basins in Eastern China

The rift lake basins in the eastern China have abundant hydrocarbon resources of lithologic deposits, which resulted from excellent source rocks and multi-type sandbodies developed during strong rifting. Vertically, the lithologic deposits are mainly distributed in the lowstand, lacustrine invasion and early highstand systems of third-order sequence corresponding to a secondary tectonic episode of strong rifting, and laterally they are closely related to various fans and turbidite sandbodies controlled by syn-sedimentary faults. A variety of lithologic traps have been developed in the rift lake basins, and they generally have favorable conditions of source-reservoir-seal assemblage and hydrocarbon accumulation dynamics, indicating that there is a great exploration potential of lithologic deposits in the rift lake basins. In order to obtain satisfactory effects of lithologic deposit exploration, it is required to combine new theories with advanced technical methods.

Composition and Evolution of Hydrogen Isotopes of n-Akanes Generated from Anhydrous Pyrolysis of Sediments from Lake Gahai,Gannan,China

To understand the thermal evolution of lacustrine sedimentary n-alkane hydrogen isotopic composition(δD),especially bacterially derived n-alkanes,anhydrous thermal simulation experiments were performed with sediments from Lake Gahai(Gannan,China).We analyzed the original and pyrolysis-generated n-alkanes and theirδD values.The results showed that thermal maturity and n-alkane origins significantly affected the distribution of pyrolysis-generated n-alkanes.In immature to post-mature sediments,the bacterial-derived medium-chain n-alkanes generally had depletedδD values.The maximum difference in averageδD values between the bacterial-and herbaceous plant-derived medium-chain n-alkanes was 32‰,and the maximum difference in δD values among individual n-alkanes was 59‰.We found that the averageδD value of pyrolysis-generated n-alkanes from different latitude was significantly different in immature to highly mature sediments,but similar in post-mature ssediments.The hydrogen isotopes of sedimentary n-alkanes can be used as indicators for paleoclimate/paleo-environment conditions only when sediments are immature to highly mature.During thermal evolution,the δD value of generated individual n-alkanes and the averageδD value increased with thermal maturity,indicating that hydrogen isotopes of sedimentary n-alkanes can be used as an index of organic matter maturity.We established mathematical models of average δD values of generated n-alkanes from immature to post-mature sediments using n C_(21)^(-)/nC_(21)^(+)and average chain lengths.These results improve our understanding of the distribution andδD value of sedimentary n-alkanes derived from herbaceous plants in mid-latitude plateau cold regions.

Aeolian component records in lacustrine sediments and its atmospheric circulation significance for evolution of Qarhan salt lake,NE Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

1 Introduction The Qarhan Playa of Qaidam Basin is located at the northeastern QinghaiTibetan Plateau(QTP),in which thick lacustrine and evaporate sediments deposited since the late Pleistocene(Chen et al.,1985,1986).As surrounded by capacious Gobi and yardang fields and suffered strong westerly-northwesterly wind,abundant aeolian materials were trapped in these sediment sequences in the

Simulation for Water Quality Management in Inohana Lake Estuary, Japan

The Inohana Lake is a branch lake of the Hamana Lake. The Inohana Lake is an estuary rather than a brackish lake, and has suffered environmental problems such as eutrophication and bottom hypoxic water. In this study, the coupled hydrodynamic and ecological models （eco-hydrodynamic model） were used to construct the strategy for preventing the bottom hypoxic water and improving or recovering the water quality in the lake. Using the model input obtained from the summertime data over 1998-2002, the summer-average flow field and oxygen concentration and budget of the standard run were calculated. Remedial measures used in this study are divided into two parts： the biogeochemical and physical changes in the present situation. For the remedial measures including the biogeochemical changes in the present situation, the simulations considering the reductions of the nutrient inputs from the river, main lake （land） and bottom sediment, and the sediment oxygen demand （SOD） were carried out. For the remedial measures including the physical changes, the 50 and 100 m extensions of the inlet width were considered in the model runs. These simulated results were compared in terms of changes in the dissolved oxygen （DO） concentration and oxygen budget in the bottom layer in the Inohana Lake. There was no significant change in the DO concentration and oxygen stock in the simulations for the reduction of the nutrient inputs from the land and bottom sediment, however increases in those in the simulations for the reduction of SOD. When SOD was reduced by 50%, the bottom DO concentration increased by approximately 2 mg/L and the oxygen stock in the bottom layer increased by 47% comparing the present situation （the standard run） of the lake. The simulation results for inlet width extension showed that the extension of width makes the DO concentration and oxygen stock lower. The remedial measures for the sediment control were proposed to prevent the bottom hypoxia and manage the water quality.

陆相坳陷湖盆细粒沉积岩岩相类型及成因——以松辽盆地晚白垩世青山口组为例

页岩油是目前非常规油气研究的热点与难点。细粒沉积岩岩相类型及成因分析是页岩油“源储”特征研究及“甜点”预测的有效途径。松辽盆地青山口组细粒沉积广泛发育,是页岩油富集的有效层段。本文通过岩性、矿物成分、有机质丰度与沉积构造4个参数,将松辽盆地青山口组细粒沉积岩划分为6种岩相:高有机质泥纹层黏土质页岩(A)、中高有机质含细粉砂纹层长英质页岩(B)、中低有机质含粗粉砂纹层长英质页岩(C)、低有机质层状粉砂岩(D)、低有机质层状介形虫灰岩(E)和低有机质层状白云岩(F)。进一步从水动力学与有机质富集方面探讨了不同岩相类型的成因,并建立了相应的沉积模式。具体为:在风暴浪基面之下的静水、咸水环境、高湖泊生产力背景中,浮游藻类与黏土絮状物均匀悬浮沉降,形成贫富有机质黏土质纹层,沉积A岩相;在正常浪基面之下的相对静水(浪基面附近局部动荡)、半咸水环境、高湖泊生产力背景中,三角洲径流与洪流带来的细粉砂颗粒继续向湖盆中央搬运,经均匀悬浮沉降形成长英质纹层,间歇期悬浮沉降形成黏土质纹层,形成B岩相;正常浪基面之下,洪水携带粉砂级颗粒,顺着水下分流河道搬运至外前缘,以稳定性浊流的形式进入前三角洲,随流速逐渐降低,分异形成粗粉砂—细粉砂纹层,间歇期悬浮沉降形成黏土质纹层,形成C岩相;正常浪基面之下,三角洲前缘早期沉积物在阵发性浊流的作用下,滑塌至较深水区,形成D和E岩相;于正常浪基面与风暴浪基面之间,在相对干燥的气候背景下的咸水环境中,形成F岩相。

长江-涨渡湖水系沉积物微塑料分布与赋存特征

探究微塑料在涨渡湖水系的分布和赋存特征,可为湖泊沉积物微塑料老化及生物毒性风险评估提供基础数据。在阻隔湖泊涨渡湖、七湖、陶家大湖、邻近长江干支流和连通水道设置11个采样点,通过采集表层沉积物,分析了长江-涨渡湖水系沉积物微塑料丰度、尺寸、形状和种类组成。结果显示,长江-涨渡湖水系所有采样点沉积物中均有微塑料存在,其干物质中微塑料平均丰度为2602.25 n/kg,其中涨渡湖的微塑料丰度最高,为5687.69 n/kg。微塑料尺寸主要分布在[20,50]μm,占微塑料总颗粒数的59.04%;尺寸大于100μm时,微塑料丰度随尺寸的增大而减小;薄膜状微塑料最多,占微塑料总颗粒数的56.06%;微塑料种类主要为聚氯乙烯、聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯、氟橡胶和氯化聚乙烯。研究结果有助于了解湖泊微塑料赋存现状及提升水生态环境质量。

鄱阳湖流域赣江(南昌段)沉积物磷赋存形态特征及释放风险分析

本研究采用化学连续提取法,分析赣江南昌段表层沉积物磷赋存形态特征及其生物有效性,并通过等温吸附实验探讨了沉积物磷释放风险。结果显示:赣江南昌段表层沉积物总磷(TP)含量范围为235.21~702.24 mg/kg,均值为522.93 mg/kg,具有较高的空间异质性。所有采样点位中无机磷(IP)均以闭蓄态磷(Oc-P)为主要赋存形态,各形态无机磷含量特征表现为:Oc-P>铁结合态磷(Fe-P)>碎屑钙磷(De-P)>自生钙磷(ACa-P)>可交换态磷(Ex-P)>铝结合态磷(Al-P);有机磷(OP)以残渣态有机磷(Res-P_(o))为主要赋存形态,按活性划分表现为:非活性有机磷(NOP)>中活性有机磷(MLOP)>活性有机磷(LOP)。生物有效磷(BAP)含量范围为61.59~218.27 mg/kg,占TP含量的比例为27.07%。BAP总量及占TP的比例均处于较低水平,沉积物内源磷释放风险较低。BAP中Fe-P平均占比为56.72%,表明沉积物磷潜在释放风险主要来源于Fe-P。TP、Fe-P和De-P之间均存在显著相关关系,表明外源输入可能是赣江沉积物磷的主要来源。采样期间赣江南昌段沉积物磷平衡浓度(EPC 0)高于上覆水溶解性活性磷(SRP)浓度,磷吸附饱和度(DPS)均低于沉积物磷大量流失的临界值25%,表明此阶段沉积物磷虽作为上覆水的“磷源”,但出现大量释磷的可能性不高。因此,沉积物内源磷释放引起赣江水体富营养化的风险不高,这意味着赣江水体应更多关注外源输入问题。本研究结果为赣江南昌段水环境的科学管理提供了数据支撑和科学依据。

骆马湖流域表层沉积物重金属分布特征及风险评价

对骆马湖流域表层沉积物中的重金属分布特征及潜在生态风险进行评估,分析了枯水期、平水期和丰水期3个时段内10种重金属元素(铬、镍、铜、镉、铅、锑、砷、汞、铍、铊)的浓度水平、空间分布和来源。采用潜在生态风险指数法对沉积物中的重金属风险进行了评估。结果显示,镍、铜、镉、铅在部分水期平均浓度高于江苏土壤环境背景值,汞和铊无点位超过背景值,且与其他水体相比,骆马湖流域沉积物重金属污染整体处在中低水平。沉积物中重金属除镉外整体单项生态风险较低,各点位综合潜在风险水平属于中等及以下范畴。相关性分析和主成分分析揭示了重金属污染主要源自工业和农业。

柴达木盆地可鲁克湖沉积物表层花粉散布规律及其对区域植被的指示意义

可鲁克湖是柴达木盆地东部荒漠区重要的生态屏障,对全球气候变化响应十分敏感。利用沉积物化石花粉重建湖泊生态系统演变历史及其对全球气候变化响应过程和机制的分析是当前重要的研究方向,本研究系统采集了可鲁克湖沉积物表层样品开展花粉分析。研究结果显示,花粉组合以藜科、禾本科、蒿属、莎草科为主。花粉总浓度在湖泊沉积中心及偏西南区域显著偏高,其中藜科、莎草科、蒿属、白刺属、麻黄属、紫菀属花粉与总浓度变化特征较为一致,而禾本科花粉在湖泊东南部显著富集。湖泊沉积物中的藜科和蒿属花粉较好地指示了柴达木盆地东部灌木-矮灌木荒漠和荒漠草原整体植被特征,而禾本科和莎草科花粉主要指示湖岸周边隐域性沼泽和河滩草甸植被群落;白刺属花粉对湖泊北岸一级阶地上的白刺群落发育和湖面变化具有较好的指示意义,谷物类禾本科和十字花科花粉能较为灵敏地反映湖泊附近的农耕活动,桦木属和云杉属花粉则主要由风力和河流远距离输入。研究揭示了可鲁克湖水深、水动力条件、湖岸周围植被群落分布以及风力作用是影响花粉散布和沉积的重要影响因素,此项研究也为青藏高原湖泊沉积物花粉组合的精确解译提供了重要数据资料和分析依据。

鄱阳湖水沙与氮磷输移过程及滞留效应研究

为了开展鄱阳湖水沙、氮磷输移过程及滞留变化的研究,收集了鄱阳湖“五河”七口水文站1958-2021年的径流量和悬沙浓度数据、1965-2020年鄱阳湖湖口入江水道地形数据、2003-2021年水质监测数据以及1973-2018年湖区围垦遥感解译等数据,采用统计、对比、双累计曲线及质量守恒法等方法,分析了鄱阳湖“五河”入湖沙量变化趋势、鄱阳湖入江水道地形变化以及鄱阳湖TN、TP滞留变化过程.结果表明:①从20世纪90年代起“五河”入湖总沙量呈显著下降趋势.②鄱阳湖出口河段河床于2000-2010年期间在深度10.0~12.0m中滩河床发生了强烈下切和横向展宽,2010-2020年下切显著减缓,中滩河床还存在横向展宽的可能.③出入湖TN、TP通量与出入湖泥沙通量成正比.④鄱阳湖2003-2021年逐年TN、TP滞留率显著降低.研究显示:鄱阳湖“五河”流域各大中型梯级水库的建设使得鄱阳湖湖区多年来沙量显著降低,鄱阳湖流域水土保持及闸坝体系在2000年后水土流失韧性增强;但湖区采砂挖沙和航道整治等使得鄱阳湖出口河段河床显著下切;采砂挖沙活动导致鄱阳湖湖盆沉积物受到扰动,使得沉积物中的氮磷被释放出来,增加了出湖TN、TP通量,在一定程度上降低了鄱阳湖TN、TP滞留率.

气候和土地利用变化情景下闽江流域水沙变化模拟

[目的]模拟未来土地利用和气候影响下的流域水沙变化有利于制定适合的流域管理计划。[方法]基于土地利用和气象数据,结合CMIP6气候模式数据、PLUS模型和SWAT模型,定量模拟2030年土地利用及不同气候情景下径流和泥沙的时空变化。[结果](1)SWAT模型在闽江流域月尺度模拟精度较好,其中径流模拟的R 2范围为0.80~0.95,NSE范围为0.75~0.91;泥沙模拟的R 2范围为0.75~0.98,NSE范围为0.64~0.94。(2)利用2020年土地利用数据对PLUS模型进行精度评估的Kappa系数为0.77,模拟2030年闽江流域建设用地和耕地将分别增加325.64,1157.51 km^(2)。(3)SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,2025-2035年平均降水量分别增加0.15%和2.18%,年平均气温分别增加0.23,0.62℃。(4)低碳情景和高碳情景下,仅土地利用变化导致年平均径流量相较于基准期分别增加0.08%和0.07%,年平均输沙量分别增加0.24%和减少0.05%;仅气候变化导致年平均径流量相较基准期分别减少4.76%和4.11%,年平均输沙量分别增加18.12%和0.13%;土地利用和气候综合影响导致年平均径流量相较于基准期分别减少4.57%和3.93%,年平均输沙量分别增加18.28%和0.33%。(5)未来气候和土地利用综合变化情景下,地表径流和产沙量较高且增幅较大的区域集中在以南平邵武市为中心的流域西北部和以三明将乐县为中心的流域西南部。[结论]研究结果为未来闽江流域的合理开发建设提供一定参考依据。