Study on Evolution of Gravity Fieldand Earthquake Prediction in theNorth-south Seismic Belt and theEastern Qinghai-Xizang Block

The relation between the dynamic evolution feature of gravity field and strong seismicity is studied. The result shows that the regional gravity field variation enjoys inhomogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution and gravity change in different regions. It may be resulted from active faults and seismogenic process, and may be due to microdynamic activity of regional strain energy, which might be accumulated or released in different stages, and there exists transformation process of stress.

Characteristics of satellite-gravity variations in the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake

To study the characteristics of gravity variations in and near the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake,we used the geopotential-field models based on monthly data of the RI.~5 GRACE satellite to calculate the gravity changes. Here we present the patterns of annually cumulative variation, differentiatial variation and secular trend, as well as the continuous time-series at 4 characteristic sites during 2004 -2012. The result shows that the anomalous positive-to-negative transition zone, in which the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was located, did not show any new gravity change before the Lushan earthquake, though located in the same zone.

Relationship between crustal magnetic anomalies and strong earthquake activity in the south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt

The south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt is located in the southeast margin of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.This region is characterized by the frequent seismic activity in Chinese mainland.In this paper,the geomagnetic field model NGDC-720 and the data of terrestrial heat flow are used to investigate the distribution of crustal magnetic anomalies,the depth of Curie surface,and the characteristics of the crustal thermal structure in the south segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.The distribution characteristics of the vertical component AZ and the magnetic declination AD in the area with earthquakes over a magnitude of 6 and their aftershocks since 1970 are focused on.The results show that the earthquakes are mainly observed in the area of negative magnetic anomaly or the strong and weak transition zone.It especially shows in the AD.The Curie surface in the study area varies significantly,ranging from 20.8 to 31 km.The uplift area of the Curie surface is consistent with the high-value area of terrestrial heat flow.The high geothermal area corresponds to the strong earthquake activity area.The focal depth of most strong earthquakes is shallower than the depth of the Curie surface.The strong earthquakes mainly occur in the deep-shallow transition zones of the Curie surface.The results can be used as a reference for strong earthquake prediction in this area.

Analysis of Seismic Activity in the Middle Part of the North-South Seismic Belt——Joint Study on Deep Seismic Sounding Profile and Seismicity Parameters

Using the rich deep seismic sounding data recorded in the middle part of the NorthSouth Seismic Belt in China,the horizontal and vertical profiles are constructed to obtain the seismic velocity structure,analyze the seismic distribution and calculate the seismic energy and the thickness of the seismogenic layer at the same time.On this basis,the seismicity parameters are calculated using the earthquake catalogue of the study area for the past 40 years,and the relationship between the b-value distribution and the velocity structure is analyzed.The results show an uneven b-value distribution in the study area and a segmented feature along the Longmenshan fault zone.Most of the earthquakes occur in the transition zone anomalies from the positive to the negative.In addition,the thickness of the crust drops from ~60 km to ~48 km from the Southeastern to the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,but the thickness of the seismogenic layer increases gradually.It is speculated that the crustal composition of the Northeastern margin contains more felsic materials and has relatively stronger seismic activities than the Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,possibly associated with the subduction and compression of the Indian Ocean Plate.

Research on the Distribution Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt after the Two Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity,the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21,2008 and February 12,2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,M > 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas,the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area,which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.

Slip Rates of the Major Faults on the Mid-southern Section of the North-South Seismic Belt Calculated from the Block Theory

In this paper, using the 1999 ~ 2007 GPS velocity field data, and by choosing the optimal block model, we obtained the deformation models applicable to the boundary zones of major blocks and the slip rates of block boundary faults on the mid-southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt. The results show that： on the Longmenshan fault zone, the tensional and compressive slip rate is small on the Baoxing-Wenchuan segment, about 0. 5 ~ 1.8mm·a^-1, and the rate is relatively significant on the segment of the Wenchuan--Maoxian, as 1.8 ~3.8mm·a^-1; on the Xianshuihe fault belt, there is a certain difference in spatial distribution between the tensional slip rag.e and strike-slip rate： the tensional slip rate （ 8. lmm^a-1） is bigger than the sinistral strike-slip rate （ 4.8mm·a^-1） at the north of the Luhuo region; the tension and compression slip rate is basically the same as the strike-slip rate at Luhuo-Dawu; the Dawu-Kangding section presents a trend of decreased strike-slip rate and increased tensional slip rate; the Kangding-ghimian segment shows a strike-slip nature; the strike-slip rate is significantly greater than the tension/compression rate on the Xiaojiang fault zone; the slip rate on the Red River fault zone shows obvious spatial segmentation, the slip rate is smaller in its northwest part, but with a certain amount of tensional/compression component, 4. 7mm·a^-1 on the Jingdong segment. The segment east of Jingdong （ western Gejiu） is mainly of strike-slip, with a slip rate of 4. 5mm·a^-1.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.

The Migration Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt and Its Relation with the South Asia Seismic Belt

Migration of strong earthquakes (M≥7.0) along the North-South Seismic Belt of China since 1500 AD shows three patterns: Approximately equal time and distance interval migration from N to S, varied patterns of migration from S to N and grouped strong earthquake activity in a certain period over the entire seismic belt. Analysis of strong earthquakes in the past hundred years shows that the seismicity on the North-South Seismic Belt is also associated with strong earthquake activities on the South Asia Seismic Belt which extends from Myanmar to Sumatra, Indonesia. Strong earthquakes on the former belt often lag several months or years behind the quakes occurring on the later belt. So, after the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_S8.7 great earthquake off the western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, the possibility of occurrence of strong earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt of China cannot be ignored. The above-mentioned migration characteristics of strong earthquakes are related to the northeastward collision and subduction of the India Plate as well as the interaction between the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the stable and hard Ordos and Alashan Massifs at its northeastern margin.

The North-South Seismic Belt： Vertical Deformation Velocity Gradient Research

The vertical deformation gradient can reflect the rate of vertical change in unit distance,and the vertical deformation velocity gradient can reflect the strength of the earth's crust tectonic activities. In this paper,using long period leveling data combined with GPS data,the vertical deformation gradient values are calculated. Leveling data and GPS data are two different means of monitoring deformation,but the result is approximately the same vertical deformation gradient. The results show that the spatial distribution of the vertical deformation velocity gradient and tectonic distribution has an obvious correlation. The most significant gradient anomalies along the North-South Seismic Belt are Xianshuihe fault, Longmenshan fault and Xiaojiang-Zemuhe fault, while the second gradient anomalies in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau are Zhuanglanghe fault and Lenglongling fault. The Menyuan M_S6. 4 earthquake in 2016 occurred in this abnormal area. However,according to the vertical deformation high gradient area distribution,there is also the possibility of an earthquake occurrence in the Tianzhu and Jingtai area.The area of convergence of three major fault zones is the strongest tectonically active region of the North-South Seismic Belt.

Crustal velocity, density structure, and seismogenic environment in the southern segment of the North- South Seismic Belt, China

The southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt in China is a critical region for earthquake preparedness and risk reduction efforts.However,limited by the low density of seismic stations and the use of single-parameter physical structural models,the deep tectonic features and seismogenic environment in this area remain controversial.Thus,a comprehensive analysis based on high-resolution crustal structures and multiple physical parameters is required.In this study,we applied the ambient noise tomography method to obtain the three-dimensional(3D)crustal S-wave velocity structure using continuous waveform data from 112 permanent stations and 350 densely distributed temporary stations in the southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.Then,we obtained the high-resolution 3D density structure through wavenumber-domain 3D gravity imaging constrained by the velocity structure.The low-velocity and low-density anomalies in the upper crust of the study area were mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin and around Dali and Simao,while the high-velocity and high-density anomalies were primarily distributed in the Panxi region,corresponding to the surface geological features.Two prominent low-velocity and low-density anomalies were observed in the middle and lower crust:one to the west of the Songpan-Garzêblock and Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block,and the other near the Anninghe-Xiaojiang fault.Combined with the spatial distribution of seismic events in the study area,we found that previous earthquakes predominantly occurred in the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and in the low-velocity and low-density zones in the upper crust.In contrast,moderate-to-strong earthquakes mainly occurred within the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and close to the high-velocity and high-density regions,often with low-velocity and low-density layers below their hypocenters.Fluids play a critical role in the seismogenic process by reducing fault strength and destabilizing the stress state,which may be a triggering factor for earthquakes in the study area.Additionally,the upwelling of molten materials from the mantle may lead to energy accumulation and stress conce-ntration,providing an important seismogenic background for moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this area.

The Characteristics of Recent Geodetic Deformation and Seismicity in North-South Seismic Zone and East of the Qinghai-Xizang Block

In this paper,the corresponding relation of the evolutionary characteristics of geodetic deformation fields with seismic activity for more than 20 years in the North-South seismic zone and East of Qinghai-Xizang Mess has been investigated.Not only is geodetic deformation in non-homogeneity for the space-time distribution but also deformation fields are in macroscopic similarity for the identical time interval.The inherited tectonic movement is a total tendency of recent crustal movement,and the motion mode is in undulations.There are stages of accumulation and release-adjusting of strain energy in crustal movement processes,which may be the dynamic mechanism of relatively quiet and active seismicity.The analysis of the crustal movement tendency since 1991 is of some significance for judging the stress state and the large seismic situation in the area.

Study on the Characteristics ofSeismic Activity in West China andIts neighboring Regions

The controlling and influencing effects of the joint action of plates surrounding China on strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland are discussed, and the characteristics of seismic activities in the West of China and neighboring regions are further studied. The results show that the seismic activity in the West of China and neighboring regions not only has the characteristics of high tide and low tide alternation but also has the characteristics of rising in one region while falling in another, and the rise and fall of seismicity are in some proportion. The above characteristics are useful for the prediction of main body region of strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland, especially for the judgement of the ending time of the high tide period.

中国大陆与各活动地块、南北地震带实测应力特征分析

本文以"中国大陆地壳应力环境基础数据库"为基础,补充了迄今为止查阅到的中国大陆水压致裂法与应力解除法的实测地应力数据,在1474个测点上得到3586条数据,研究区经度范围75°E-130°E,纬度范围18°N-47°N,深度范围0～4000m,基本覆盖了中国大陆的各活动地块与南北地震带各段等研究区.本文采用等深度段分组归纳的方法解决了实测地应力数据样本数量沿深度分布的不均匀问题,给出了中国大陆与各研究区地壳浅层测量深度范围内应力量值、方位特征.结果显示:(1)中国大陆地壳浅层最大水平应力、最小水平应力、垂直应力随深度呈线性增加;(2)中国大陆地区侧压系数随深度的变化特征为:浅部离散,随着深度增加而集中,并趋向0.68,D=465m是水平作用为主导向垂直作用为主导的转换深度,Kav=1;(3)中国大陆水平差应力在地表为3 MPa左右,随深度增加以5.8MPa/km的梯度增大;(4)在测量深度范围内,中国大陆各研究区最大水平应力中间值(深度为2000m时的统计回归值)从大到小的顺序是:青藏地块63.6MPa、南北带北段57.3MPa、华南地块51.4MPa、华北地块50.5MPa、南北带中段47.9MPa、西域地块47.5MPa、南北带南段45.4MPa、东北地块44.8MPa,总体表现为"西强东弱"的基本特征,反映了印度板块与欧亚板块的强烈碰撞是中国大陆构造应力场强度总体特征的主要来源;(5)与其他研究区相比较,青藏地块地壳在从南向北的挤压作用下呈现出明显的"浅弱深强"特点;(6)最大水平应力方向的总体特征,基本以青藏高原为中心,呈辐射状展布,由西向东,从近N-S方向逐步顺时针旋转至NNE-SSW、NE-SW、NEE-SWW、NW-SE方向,与深部的震源机制解研究结果有一致性.

中国大陆地震条带统计特征分析

对中国大陆具备相对完整资料的327次M≥5.0地震,分5个工作区进行了统一要求的地震条带图像扫描,发现96次中强震前存在条带图像,约占研究地震总数的29%.其中震前有条带地震与研究地震的比例分别为:华北地区30%,华东南区29%,川滇地区41%,青藏高原西北缘24%,新疆地区16%.中强震前出现条带比例最低的是新疆,最高的为川滇地区.在此基础上着重分析了条带形成后发生的主震与条带形成持续的时间、条带长轴尺度及组成条带地震震级等的统计关系.其结果为:中国大陆lgt(月)=0.30M-1.03±0.38(M≥6.5),lgL(km)=0.11M+1.73±1.75(M≥5.5);川滇地区lgt(月)=0.20M-0.25±0.24,lgL(km)=0.12M+1.75±0.16(M≥5.5).其它分区关系离散,未提出相应的统计关系.研究表明,条带的持续时间和条带的长轴尺度与主震震级在M<5.5时两者没有显著的相关性,而在M≥5.5时则存在一定的线性关系,但其相关性较差.组成条带的起始震级在5级(M5.0—5.9)主震前为ML2.5左右;6级(M6.0—6.9)主震前为ML3.0左右;7级(M≥7.0)主震前为ML4.0左右.主震发生在条带端部的比例大于内部;主震前出现交汇条带较少,仅占10%,主要出现在7级以上地震前.5级、6级和7级地震前出现条带的比例分别为25%、38%和71%.这个比例一定程度上表明了条带图像可能是7级以上强震的重要异常判据.

苏鲁超高压变质岩中地震波速随围压的变化规律

我们在10~800MPa的静水压力下测量了中国大陆科学钻探(CCSD)主孔岩心和采自苏鲁地区地表露头上的共68块典型超高压变质岩试样的地震波速,并建立了波速和围压的定量关系,成功地解释了描述这一定量关系方程中4个参数的物理意义。笔者相信,本文将为超高压变质岩地区以及新老俯冲带地震波资料的解释提供必不可少的理论和实验支撑。

南北地震带强震活动的时空关联现象探讨

对1970年以来南北地震带强震活动的时空关联现象进行了分析,两次地震连发引起的响应地震在震中和强度上具有"黄金分割数"特征,并与地震构造关系密切.

欧亚地震带地震活动增强与中国大陆地区7级以上地震发生的关系分析

根据欧亚地震带7级以上地震释放能量与全球7级以上地震释放总能量之比,利用χ2检验方法对欧亚地震带地震活动增强与中国大陆地区7级以上地震发生的关系进行了统计检验。结果表明,当出现欧亚带年地震释放能量比高于50%且有8级以上地震发生时,其后3年内中国大陆地区将有发生多次7级以上地震或8级地震的可能性,这个关系在10%的显著水平下通过显著性检验。

南北地震带及青藏块体东部垂直形变与地震活动研究

通过对南北地震带及青藏块体东部各形变监测区近30年区域水准资料的计算分析,发现地壳运动和地震活动之间存在一定的呼应关系.地壳运动呈激烈的继承性运动,地震处于弱活动阶段;地壳运动继承性减弱(或呈逆继承性运动),地震处于强活跃阶段.地震活动强弱在时间上明显滞后于地壳运动,二者活动方式具有明显的波动性和周期性.现今地壳运动在运行到波谷后呈缓慢增强的继承性运动,估计未来几年内南北地震带地震活动仍将维持现状,不会出现明显的增强趋势.

东北深震与中国大陆主要构造带地震活动的相关性统计分析

统计分析了中国大陆１９００年以来所有发生在东北的５级以上的深震及其与中国大陆２６个地震带６级以上（其中东部为５级以上）地震活动的相关性．结果表明７级以上深震有可能引发中国大陆地震活动进入应变能大释放阶段．其中与东北深震统计相关最高的地震带是：金沙江地震带、南天山地震带、澜沧江－眉公河地震带以及巴颜喀拉山地震带；在中国东部地区相关性相对较高的地区是：都城－营口地震带、长江下游－南黄海地震带以及东南沿海地震外带．

苏鲁超高压变质带地震波场特征及地震资料处理

中国通常人们认为地震勘探在变质岩地区可能得不到有用的反射,地震资料会难以处理和解释。以实例分析苏鲁超高压变质带的地震波场特征,并介绍一条测线纵波地震资料处理的过程,说明超高压变质带在有破碎带、韧性剪切带和大的岩体界面的情况下用适当的采集方法和资料处理方法,有可能得到可以解释的地震反射资料,并对超高压变质带地震资料所反映的地质现象作了部分解释。