Monitoring seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin using a machine learning workflow

Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin of China.This workflow includes coherent event detection,phase picking,and earthquake location using three-component data from a seismic network.By combining Phase Net,we develop an ML-based earthquake location model called Phase Loc,to conduct real-time monitoring of the local seismicity.The approach allows us to use synthetic samples covering the entire study area to train Phase Loc,addressing the problems of insufficient data samples,imbalanced data distribution,and unreliable labels when training with observed data.We apply the trained model to observed data recorded in the southern Sichuan Basin,China,between September 2018 and March 2019.The results show that the average differences in latitude,longitude,and depth are 5.7 km,6.1 km,and 2 km,respectively,compared to the reference catalog.Phase Loc combines all available phase information to make fast and reliable predictions,even if only a few phases are detected and picked.The proposed workflow may help real-time seismic monitoring in other regions as well.

Dynamically triggered seismicity on a tectonic scale:A review

Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.

South China Sea Typhoon Hagibis enhanced Xinfengjiang Reservoir seismicity

There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.

The seismicity in the middle section of the Altyn Tagh Fault system revealed by a dense nodal seismic array

The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes since1598 AD, so the potential seismic hazard is unclear. We develope an earthquake catalog using continuous waveform data recorded by the Tarim-Altyn-Qaidam dense nodal seismic array from September 17 to November23, 2021 in the middle section of ATF. With the machine learning-based picker, phase association, location, match and locate workflow, we detecte 233 earthquakes with M_L-1–3, far more than 6 earthquakes in the routine catalog. Combining with focal mechanism solutions and the local fault structure, we find that seismic events are clustered along the ATF with strike-slip focal mechanisms and on the southern secondary faults with thrusting focal mechanisms. This overall seismic activity in the middle section of the ATF might be due to the northeastward transpressional motion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau block at the western margin of the Qaidam Basin.

Implications for fault reactivation and seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing

Evaluating the physical mechanisms that link hydraulic fracturing(HF) operations to induced earthquakes and the anticipated form of the resulting events is significant in informing subsurface fluid injection operations. Current understanding supports the overriding role of the effective stress magnitude in triggering earthquakes, while the impact of change rate of effective stress has not been systematically addressed. In this work, a modified critical stiffness was brought up to investigate the likelihood, impact,and mitigation of induced seismicity during and after hydraulic fracturing by developing a poroelastic model based on rate-and-state fraction law and linear stability analysis. In the new criterion, the change rate of effective stress was considered a key variable to explore the evolution of this criterion and hence the likelihood of instability slip of fault. A coupled fluid flow-deformation model was used to represent the entire hydraulic fracturing process in COMSOL Multiphysics. The possibility of triggering an earthquake throughout the entire hydraulic fracturing process, from fracturing to cessation, was investigated considering different fault locations, orientations, and positions along the fault. The competition between the effects of the magnitude and change rate of effective stress was notable at each fracturing stage. The effective stress magnitude is a significant controlling factor during fracturing events, with the change rate dominating when fracturing is suddenly started or stopped. Instability dominates when the magnitude of the effective stress increases(constant injection at each fracturing stage) and the change rate of effective stress decreases(the injection process is suddenly stopped). Fracturing with a high injection rate, a fault adjacent to the hydraulic fracturing location and the position of the junction between the reservoir and fault are important to reduce the Coulomb failure stress(CFS) and enhance the critical stiffness as the significant disturbance of stresses at these positions in the coupled process. Therefore,notable attention should be given to the injection rate during fracturing, fault position, and position along faults as important considerations to help reduce the potential for induced seismicity. Our model was verified and confirmed using the case of the Longmaxi Formation in the Sichuan Basin, China, in which the reported microseismic data were correlated with high critical stiffness values. This work supplies new thoughts of the seismic risk associated with HF engineering.

Seismicity patterns before the 2021 Fin (Iran) doublet earthquakes using the region-time-length and time-to-failure methods

Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12);the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.

A machine learning-based study of multifactor susceptibility and risk control of induced seismicity in unconventional reservoirs

A comprehensive dataset from 594 fracturing wells throughout the Duvernay Formation near Fox Creek, Alberta, is collected to quantify the influences of geological, geomechanical, and operational features on the distribution and magnitude of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity. An integrated machine learning-based investigation is conducted to systematically evaluate multiple factors that contribute to induced seismicity. Feature importance indicates that a distance to fault, a distance to basement, minimum principal stress, cumulative fluid injection, initial formation pressure, and the number of fracturing stages are among significant model predictors. Our seismicity prediction map matches the observed spatial seismicity, and the prediction model successfully guides the fracturing job size of a new well to reduce seismicity risks. This study can apply to mitigating potential seismicity risks in other seismicity-frequent regions.

Inelastic displacement ratio of low-to mid-rise BRBFs designed under variable levels of seismicity

Buckling-restrained braces(BRBs)have shown their capability to provide building structures with stiffness,strength,and ductility.Estimating the seismic drifts of buckling-restrained braced frames(BRBFs)is an important design step to control structural and non-structural damage.In current practice of seismic design,the estimation of seismic drifts of BRBFs is performed by using empirical calculations that are independent upon either the type of the structural system or the design level of seismicity.In these empirical calculations,the seismic drifts are estimated by amplifying the reduced elastic drifts obtained under design lateral loading with a displacement amplification factor(DAF).The value of DAF is considered equal to the product of the response modification factor R and the inelastic displacement ratioρ.The goal of the current research is to assess the value ofρfor low-to mid-rise BRBFs designed under low and high levels of seismicity.This goal has been achieved by conducting a series of elastic and inelastic time-history analyses pertaining to an ensemble of earthquake records on 3-,6-and 9-story BRBFs.The results indicate that theρ-ratio increases with an increase in design seismic intensity and an increase in experienced inelasticity.The range ofρfor low seismicity designs ranges from 0.63 to 0.9,while for high seismicity designs this range stretches from 0.83 to 1.29.It has been found that the consideration of a generalρ-ratio of 1.0 is a reasonable estimation for the design of the BRBFs considered in this study.

Seismicity and seismogenic mechanism of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake on September 16, 2021

Based on the seismic data recorded by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC) in the Luxian area from January 2009 to October 2021,the 3D V_P,V_S, V_P/V_S structures and seismic locations of the area are obtained by joint inversion using the V_P/V_S model consistency-constrained double-difference tomography method(tomoDDMC).The earthquakes in the study area are mainly concentrated at a depth of 2-6 km,and the focal depth is generally shallow.The Ms 6.0 Luxian earthquake occurred at the transition zone of high-and low-velocity anomalies and the aftershock sequence was distributed along the edge of the low-V_P zone.A small number of foreshocks occurred on the west side of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake,while most of the aftershocks were distributed on the east side of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake.The aftershock sequence consisted of three seismic bands with different trends,and the overall distribution was in a NWW direction,which was inconsistent with the spatial distribution of the main active faults nearby.In addition,the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes and the variation of b-values are closely related to the industrial water injection activities in the study area,reflecting the activation of pre-existing hidden faults under certain tectonic and stress environments leading to seismic activities in the area.

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)that spans January 1,2005 to July 31,2020.We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data,resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet.The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit.We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD,which shows a more defined structure at depth.We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament,as defined by the magnetic anomaly,supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ.We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir,which is located about 5 km from the epicenter of the M_(W) 4.4 December 12,2018 Decatur,Tennessee earthquake,and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region.We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes.Our results show limited evidence for hydrologicallydriven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ,which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.

Numerical modelling of spatially and temporally distributed on‑fault induced seismicity:implication for seismic hazards

Induced seismicity is strongly related to various engineering projects that cause anthropogenic in-situ stress change at a great depth.Hence,there is a need to estimate and mitigate the associated risks.In the past,various simulation methods have been developed and applied to induced seismicity analysis,but there is still a fundamental diference between simulation results and feld observations in terms of the spatial distribution of seismic events and its frequency.The present study aims to develop a method to simulate spatially distributed on-fault seismicity whilst reproducing a complex stress state in the fault zone.Hence,an equivalent continuum model is constructed,based on a discrete fracture network within a fault damage zone,by employing the crack tensor theory.A fault core is simulated at the center of the model as a discontinuous plane.Using the model,a heterogeneous stress state with stress anomalies in the fault zone is frst simulated by applying tractions on the model outer boundaries.Subsequently,the efective normal stress on the fault plane is decreased in a stepwise manner to induce slip.The simulation result is validated in terms of the b-value and other seismic source parameters,hence demonstrating that the model can reproduce spatially and temporally distributed on-fault seismicity.Further analysis on the parameters shows the variation of frequency-magnitude distribution before the occurrence of large seismic events.This variation is found to be consistent with feld observations,thus suggesting the potential use of this simulation method in evaluating the risk for seismic hazards in various engineering projects.

The role of temperature‐enhanced fault closure in promoting postinjection pressure diffusion and seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems

Post shut‐in seismic events in enhanced geothermal systems(EGSs)occur predominantly at the outer rim of the co‐injection seismic cloud.The concept of postinjection fracture and fault closure near the injection well has been proposed and validated as a mechanism for enhancing post shut‐in pressure diffusion that promotes seismic hazard.This phenomenon is primarily attributed to the poro‐elastic closure of fractures resulting from the reduction of wellbore pressure after injection termination.However,the thermal effects in EGSs,mainly including heat transfer and thermal stress,may not be trivial and their role in postinjection fault closure and pressure evolution needs to be explored.In this study,we performed numerical simulations to analyze the relative importance of poro‐elasticity,heat transfer,and thermo‐elasticity in promoting postinjection fault closure and pressure diffusion.The numerical model wasfirst validated against analytical solutions in terms offluid pressure diffusion and against heatedflow‐through experiments in terms of thermal processes.We then quantified and distinguished the contribution of each individual mechanism by comparing four different shut‐in scenarios simulated under different coupled conditions.Our results highlight the importance of poro‐elastic fault closure in promoting postinjection pressure buildup and seismicity,and suggest that heat transfer can further augment the fault closure‐induced pressure increase and thus potentially intensify the postinjection seismic hazard,with minimal contribution from thermo‐elasticity.

Geophysical Reactions to Remote 2022 Tonga Eruption and to Türkiye Earthquakes in Georgia (Caucasus): Hydrogeology, Geomagnetics and Seismicity

The paper is devoted to analysis of hydrogeological, geomagnetic and seismic response to the two great remote geophysical events, 2022 Tonga volcano eruption and 2020-2023 Türkiye earthquakes in Georgia (Caucasus). The geophysical observation system in Georgia, namely, water level stations in the network of deep wells, atmospheric pressure and the geomagnetic sensors of the Dusheti Geophysical Observatory (DGO) as well as seismic data in Garni Observatory (Armenia) respond to the Tonga event by anomalies in the time series. These data show that there are two types of respond: infrasound disturbances in atmospheric pressure and seismic waves in the Earth generated by the eruption. After Tonga eruption January 15 at 04:21 UTC three groups of N-shaped waveforms were registered in the water level corresponding to the global propagation characteristics of the N-shaped waveform of infrasound signals on the barograms generated by eruption at the distance ~15,700 km: they were identified as the Lamb wave, a surface wave package running in the atmosphere with a velocity around ~314 m/s. The paper also presents the WL reactions to three strong EQs that occur in Türkiye 2020-2023, namely Elazığ, Van and Türkiye-Syria EQs. WL in Georgian well network reacts to these events by anomalies of different intensity, which points to the high sensitivity of hydrosphere to remote (several hundred km) strong EQs. The intensity and character of WL reactions depend strongly on the local hydrogeological properties of rocks, surrounding the well.

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Three-dimensional distinct element modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity due to hydraulic fracturing injection and backflow

This paper presents a three-dimensional fully hydro-mechanical coupled distinct element study on fault reactivation and induced seismicity due to hydraulic fracturing injection and subsequent backflow process,based on the geological data in Horn River Basin,Northeast British Columbia,Canada.The modeling results indicate that the maximum magnitude of seismic events appears at the fracturing stage.The increment of fluid volume in the fault determines the cumulative moment and maximum fault slippage,both of which are essentially proportional to the fluid volume.After backflow starts,the fluid near the joint intersection keeps flowing into the critically stressed fault,rather than backflows to the wellbore.Although fault slippage is affected by the changes of both pore pressure and ambient rock stress,their contributions are different at fracturing and backflow stages.At fracturing stage,pore pressure change shows a dominant effect on induced fault slippage.While at backflow stage,because the fault plane is under a critical stress state,any minor disturbance would trigger a fault slippage.The energy analysis indicates that aseismic deformation takes up a majority of the total deformation energy during hydraulic fracturing.A common regularity is found in both fracturing-and backflow-induced seismicity that the cumulative moment and maximum fault slippage are nearly proportional to the injected fluid volume.This study shows some novel insights into interpreting fracturing-and backflowinduced seismicity,and provides useful information for controlling and mitigating seismic hazards due to hydraulic fracturing.

Fault activation and induced seismicity in geological carbon storage--Lessons learned from recent modeling studies

In the light of current concerns related to induced seismicity associated with geological carbon sequestration(GCS),this paper summarizes lessons learned from recent modeling studies on fault activation,induced seismicity,and potential for leakage associated with deep underground carbon dioxide(CO2) injection.Model simulations demonstrate that seismic events large enough to be felt by humans require brittle fault properties and continuous fault permeability allowing pressure to be distributed over a large fault patch to be ruptured at once.Heterogeneous fault properties,which are commonly encountered in faults intersecting multilayered shale/sandstone sequences,effectively reduce the likelihood of inducing felt seismicity and also effectively impede upward CO2leakage.A number of simulations show that even a sizable seismic event that could be felt may not be capable of opening a new flow path across the entire thickness of an overlying caprock and it is very unlikely to cross a system of multiple overlying caprock units.Site-specific model simulations of the In Salah CO2storage demonstration site showed that deep fractured zone responses and associated microseismicity occurred in the brittle fractured sandstone reservoir,but at a very substantial reservoir overpressure close to the magnitude of the least principal stress.We conclude by emphasizing the importance of site investigation to characterize rock properties and if at all possible to avoid brittle rock such as proximity of crystalline basement or sites in hard and brittle sedimentary sequences that are more prone to injection-induced seismicity and permanent damage.

A classification of induced seismicity

In order to adopt the best safety procedures, man-made earthquakes should be differentiated as a function of their origin. At least four different types of settings can be recognized in which anthropogenic activities may generate seismicity:(I) fluid removal from a stratigraphic reservoir in the underground can trigger the compaction of the voids and the collapse of the overlying volume, i.e., graviquakes; the deeper the reservoir, the bigger the volume and the earthquake magnitude;(II) wastewater or gas reinjection provides the reduction of friction in volumes and along fault planes, allowing creep or sudden activation of tectonic discontinuities, i.e., reinjection quakes;(III) fluid injection at supra-lithostatic pressure generates hydrofracturing and micro-seismicity, i.e., hydrofracturing quakes;(IV) fluid extraction or fluid injection,filling or unfilling of artificial lakes modifies the lithostatic load, which is the maximum principal stress in extensional tectonic settings, the minimum principal stress in contractional tectonic settings, and the intermediate principal stress in strike-slip settings, i.e., load quakes; over given pressure values, the increase of the lithostatic load may favour the activation of normal faults, whereas its decrease may favour thrust faults. For example, the filling of an artificial lake may generate normal fault-related seismicity.Therefore, each setting has its peculiarities and the knowledge of the different mechanisms may contribute to the adoption of the appropriate precautions in the various industrial activities.

A limit equilibrium fracture zone model to investigate seismicity in coal mines

This paper explores possible synergies between techniques used to minimise seismicity in deep South African gold mines and their applicability to control coal bumps. The paper gives a summary of the techniques used in the deep gold mines and a critical appraisal if these are useful in coal mines. The techniques typically include control of mining rate, preconditioning, optimisation of extraction sequences and centralised blasting. Of particular interest to the coal bump problem is an experimental limit equilibrium fracture zone model implemented in a displacement discontinuity code. This was recently developed for the gold mines to enable the interactive analysis of complex tabular mine layout extraction sequences. The model specifically accommodates energy dissipation computations in the developing fracture zone near the edges of these excavations. This allows the released energy to be used as a surrogate measure of ongoing seismic activity and addresses a number of the weaknesses in the traditional usage of this quantity as a criterion for the design of seismically active layouts. This paper investigates the application of the model to a hypothetical coal longwall layout and the specific problem of coal bumps.

On the physical model of earthquake precursor fields and the mechanism of precursors＇timespace distribution（Ⅲ）──anomalies of seismicity and crustal deformation and their mechanisms when a strong earthquake is in prep

By studying the seismicity pattern before 37 earthquakes with M≥6. 0 in North China and the pattern of crustal deformation in the Capital Area from 1954 to 1992, some abnormal characteristics of these patterns before strong earthquakes have been extracted. A comparison has been made between the anomalies of these two kinds of Patterns. From the results we can know the following. ① Before a strong earthquake, the seismicity will strengthen and the crustal deformation rate will increase. ② Several years before a strong earthquake, there will be seismic gaps and deformation gaps around the epicenter of the quake. ③ The dynamic parameters of patterns all show a decrease in information dimension. This means that the crustal deformation has become more and more localized with time and it gives an important indication showing that a strong earthquake is in preparation. At the end of the paper, the physical mechanisms of the abnormal patterns of seismicity and crustal deformationhave been explained in a unified way in terms of the earthquake-generating model of a inhomogeneous strongbody in inhmogeneous media.

Seismicity,structure and tectonics in the Arctic region

The "Arctic" region,where the North Pole occupies the center of the Arctic Ocean,has been affecting the environmental variation of the Earth from geological time to the present.However,the seismic activities in the area are not adequately monitored.Therefore,by conducting long term monitoring of seismic phenomenon as sustainable parameters,our understanding of both the tectonic evolution of the Earth and the dynamic interaction between the cryosphere and geosphere in surface layers of the Earth will increase.In this paper,the association of the seismicity and structure of the Arctic region,particularly focused on Eurasian continent and surrounding oceans,and its relationship with regional evolution during the Earth’s history is studied.The target areas cover representative tectonic provinces in the Eurasian Arctic,such as the wide area of Siberia,Baikal Rift Zone.Far East Russia,Arctic Ocean together with Greenland and Northern Canada.Based on discussion including characteristics of seismicity,heterogeneous structure of the crust and upper mantle,tectonic history and recent dynamic features of the Earth’s surface in the Arctic are summarized.