The Impact of the Monetary Policy During the COVID-19 in the Brazilian Banking Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an outbreak on the global productive chains,transforming companies and society in general.Governments adopted anticyclical policies such as basic interest rates reduction as response.Brazil basic interest rate is denominated Selic.The application of these policies requires the protagonist of bank’s financial intermediation.This study aims to verify two events-under the perspective of the efficient markets’theory.The first is the communication of the first death by COVID-19-and the subsequent,Selic rate reduction to 2%p.a.-and its effects on bank’s shares prices.The hypotheses presented are:H1-The announcement of the first death by COVID-19 negatively impacts the banks’shares returns and H2-The announcement of the Selic interest rate-during the COVID-19-positively impacts the return of the banks’shares.We adopt event study methodology in a final sample of nine and 15 banks to Events 1 and 2 respectively.The results confirm H1 as well as the semi-strong informational efficiency market.H2 is not confirmed.Results confirm the non-effectiveness of the anticyclical policy of basic interest rate reduction.This contributes to the discussion about the impacts of COVID-19 and the efficacy of anticyclical policies.

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

Conjuncture Cycles and Monetary Anomalies Are Unwelcome Guests for Sustainability

Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for returning to calm monetary.Unfortunately,signs of poor governance are mistaken for unfortunate events,but are instead tools offered to restore economic systems.Politics seeks consensus and does not accept the bitter cure of recession.Monetary policy is therefore called into question even if monetary anomalies also depend on errors in the management of the economy;the result is the gradual increase in interest rates.Is the idea that we can achieve the goal of complete neutrality with nature acceptable in a global economic framework pervaded by inflation and denunciation?Can we similarly argue that economic problems can coexist once the goal of neutrality has been achieved?The answer is negative.We must correct these anomalies and dysfunctions of the economy,which cannot coexist in the new context of complete and indefinite equilibrium of tomorrow.And not even the idea that conflicts can be resolved with war seems to find a place in the renewed scenario of neutrality.In this regard we can remember that,when we have reached the economic optimum of complete neutrality,or at least we are close to it,the most socially and economically advanced territories and continents will benefit from an acceleration of productivity and development.Scarcity itself will give way to the new,long-awaited reality.A condition that approaches the state of abundance and which will produce surpluses to be allocated to countries and territories that are struggling towards the condition of neutrality.The acceleration of lagging continents and the recovery of altered economic systems are therefore preconditions that can allow us to access the state of global neutrality.As we get closer to the great objective,it is to be believed that the pretense of regulating conflicts through war will also disappear.With the new reality of abundance,the economic reason for war disappears,while the aspiration of peoples-inscribed in their DNA-for solidarity and peaceful aggregation towards substantial unity becomes clear.

A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk,real economic activity,and monetary intervention

The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.

Monetary policy rules：Forward-looking and backward-looking in an overlapping generations model

In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy:quantitative easing,spreads,and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

Human Resources Development and Migration： New Potential Determinants for Monetary Policy

The main objective of the present paper is to determine the potential impact the qualitative and quantitative tendencies in the labor market on the decisions which influence the design of monetary policy worldwide. The analysis is focused on how human resources and phenomena associated with them could influence potential growth and, further on, how they can impact monetary policy decisions at national level for European countries outside the euro area and at ECB level for the euro zone countries. Moreover, the paper will envisage potential macroeconomic reactions （monetary decisions herewith included） to human resources dynamics. The economic variations are regarded through the perspective of growth potential shown by the Research ＆ Development sector and also through the effects of labor force migration. The analysis of statistical data aims at pointing out the different economic perspectives in the European Union, the United States, and Japan, also considering the disparities between EU member states. The analysis is completed by the use of the ranking method, the conclusions stating once more the crucial importance of the human factor in drawing monetary policy decisions

From Keynes to Friedman： Monetary Policy of 20th

Research question includes affect of monetary policy on product＇s demand. Monetary policy may increase demands in markets for firm＇s products. Assumption of study is that markets need money for demand. It is figured as market theory. Research topic explores theory of market and world money concept. It aims to use world money in market theory. This study adopts case exploration of Keynes, Friedman, and Fisher. This study is based on their figures. This study defends that world money is applied in global economy by quantity of global GDP. It is 60 trillion dollars, and 10% of that amount may become world money. Result of this study is that world money concept is applied through Fisher＇s quantity theory in world economy. Major conclusion is that markets need money to increase demand, aligned with market theory, and world money supplies money for markets.

China’s Institutional Strength,Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

Structural Monetary Policy, Bank Credit and Bank Liquidity—An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the People’s Bank of China,based on traditional monetary policy tools,launched a series of structural monetary policy tools such as standing lending facility(SLF),medium-term lending facility(MLF),and pledged supplementary lending(PSL)and targeted at liquidity via the commercial banking system.In order to test the credit transmission effect of structured monetary policy,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between structured monetary policy,bank liquidity and bank credit based on the VAR model.The research shows that the implementation of structured monetary policy reduces the liquidity of commercial banks in the short term and increases in loans to small or micro enterprises and agriculture-related loans,these policies have produced significant short-term effects on credit transmission in steady of long-term effects.Thus,a series of supporting measures are needed to fully exert the effects of structural monetary policy.

Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Saudi Arabia： Evidence From SVAR Analysis

In this research, the authors evaluate different channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Saudi Arabia over the last 15 years with a baseline of structural vector autoregressive （SVAR） models. Contemporaneous coefficient in the structural model indicates that while Saudi Arabia pegs its currency to US dollar, monetary policy instrument reacts positively to unexpected changes in the monetary aggregate. In addition to the traditional interest rate channel, the authors have also found the effects of credit channel. Moreover, variance decomposition results show that past shocks of credit, nominal effective exchange rate （NEER）, federal funds rate （FFR） and treasury bill （TB） are found to be important for credit growth in shorter and longer horizons. The exchange rate channel has been less significant in comparison to other channels.

The Interactions among Housing Price, Inflation and Monetary Policy in China： Facts and Implications

As a transition economy, China has unique characteristics regarding housing price, inflation and monetary policies. In addition to supply and demand powers, China＇s housing price is affected by demographic structure, fiscal system and land supply system. Using China＇s statistics from 2005 to 2011, this paper found empirically that （1） liquidity has a significant impact on China＇s housing prices and inflation; （2） China＇s negative real interest rate has pushed up housing price; （3） price-related instrument of monetary policy can curb housing price and is more effective than control of money supply.

Monetary Policy and Profitability of Commercial Banks in Uganda

Background: Economic theory suggests that monetary policy through interest rates affects bank profitability. There is limited empirical evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Objective: This study seeks to examine the effect of monetary policy on the profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Methodology: The study adopts a causal relationship research design. Data, covering 9 years from 2010-2018, was collected from all the registered commercial banks which were in operation over the study period. Various monetary policy variables are included in the empirical model as predictor variables. Return on Assets is used as a measure of bank profitability. A dynamic two-step System Generalized Method of Moments panel estimator is applied to estimate the empirical model. Findings: Estimates show that monetary policy in terms of its link to the lending rate has a significant causal effect on Return on Assets, suggesting that interest rate changes predict bank profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Further, results show that a rise in core inflation has a significant negative causal effect on the banks’ profitability and that there is a significant lagged effect of Return on Assets. The 91-day treasury bill rate and money supply were insignificant in predicting bank profitability. Originality: Unlike previous related studies which have focused on major advanced economies and a limited number of studies which have considered only a few developing countries like Nigeria and Kenya, the current study provides empirical evidence on the link between monetary policy and commercial bank profitability in Uganda. Practical Implications: Policy makers in the financial sector may use the study results as a basis of implementation of appropriate monetary policy actions that enhance the profitability of Uganda’s commercial banks. For instance, the central bank should promote low and stable core inflation in order to enhance bank profitability, and should ensure that the monetary policy transmission to interest rates is efficient.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis of Monetary Policy in Thailand

This paper highlights the importance of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Thailand since the 1997 financial crisis and then undertakes an empirical investigation of Thailand monetary policy. This study makes effort to address both two aspects of monetary transmission mechanism, namely channels of monetary policy and the effect of monetary policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables. To address these issues, the paper specifies structural vector autoregressive （SVAR） models and estimates them using quarterly data from 1997q3 to 2014q4. The identification schemes used in this paper follow Kim and Roubini and Raghavan, Silvapulle, and Athanasopoulos with some modifications. The overall result is that the identifying restrictions used in the SVAR seem to appropriately identify a monetary policy shock even though the exchange rate puzzle is found. The results show that interest rate and monetary aggregate have played the dominant channels of monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand, while an exchange rate channel is decreasingly significant. In addition, Thailand economy is somewhat exposed to the foreign sector especially for the world price of oil and the U.S. monetary policy. The results also reveal the linkage and influence of U.S. monetary policy on Thailand monetary policy. The empirical findings are then used to provide Bank of Thailand （BOT） with insight into identifying the important monetary policy transmission channels. It would help the BOT to implement an effective monetary policy for achieving price stability through the appropriate monetary channels.

Monetary Policy and Unemployment:The Case of Romania

The paper aims to analyze the monetary transmission model between the monetary policy and the labor market variable of unemployment.The results of the data show that,the external shocks have an important impact especially on the Romanian interest rates but also on the domestic production;however,the impact is not significant on unemployment,which proves the resilience of the domestic labor market.The central bank policy rate has a stabilizing effect on the unemployment rate in case of an increase in the euro area policy rate.

Study of International Coordination of Chinese Monetary Policy under Open Economy

Preliminary study is made to the international coordination of national monetary policy under economic globalization and informationalization. This paper uses Game Theory to analyze the operation effect of Chinese monetary policy. It suggests that the maximum effect of Chinese monetary policy can only be achieved by cooperation and coordination with international society.

Analysis on the Effectiveness of China＇s Monetary Policy under WTO

Starting from the analysis on the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy under WTO, this paper advocates that reforms of the operating system of domestic monetary policy and the foreign exchange regime should be carried out in a combined manner. It also touches upon the coordination of exchange rate and interest rate polices. To improve the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy, it is necessary to shift from the fixed exchange rate regime to the managed floating foreign exchange regime, gradually strengthening the central bank＇s rational control over the foreign exchange market and its construction of China＇s monetary market. It is also of great significance to improve the sterilization operation to guard against the internal fluctuations of money supply.