Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon...Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.展开更多
Among steganalysis techniques,detection against MV(motion vector)domain-based video steganography in the HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding)standard remains a challenging issue.For the purpose of improving the detectio...Among steganalysis techniques,detection against MV(motion vector)domain-based video steganography in the HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding)standard remains a challenging issue.For the purpose of improving the detection performance,this paper proposes a steganalysis method that can perfectly detectMV-based steganography in HEVC.Firstly,we define the local optimality of MVP(Motion Vector Prediction)based on the technology of AMVP(Advanced Motion Vector Prediction).Secondly,we analyze that in HEVC video,message embedding either usingMVP index orMVD(Motion Vector Difference)may destroy the above optimality of MVP.And then,we define the optimal rate of MVP as a steganalysis feature.Finally,we conduct steganalysis detection experiments on two general datasets for three popular steganographymethods and compare the performance with four state-ofthe-art steganalysis methods.The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed feature set.Furthermore,our method stands out for its practical applicability,requiring no model training and exhibiting low computational complexity,making it a viable solution for real-world scenarios.展开更多
Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack ...Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).展开更多
Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production exp...Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.展开更多
Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of th...Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of the water-based aerosol is always unsatisfactory due to the rapid evaporation and sedimentation of the aerosol droplets.Great efforts have been devoted to improve the stability of water-based aerosol by using additives with different composition and proportion.However,the lack of the criterion and principle for screening the effective additives results in excessive experimental time consumption and cost.And the stabilization time of the aerosol is still only 30 min,which could not meet the requirements of the perdurable interference.Herein,to improve the stability of water-based aerosol and optimize the complex formulation efficiently,a theoretical calculation method based on thermodynamic entropy theory is proposed.All the factors that influence the shielding effect,including polyol,stabilizer,propellant,water and cosolvent,are considered within calculation.An ultra-stable water-based aerosol with long duration over 120 min is obtained with the optimal fogging agent composition,providing enough time for fighting the electro-optic weapon.Theoretical design guideline for choosing the additives with high phase transition temperature and low phase transition enthalpy is also proposed,which greatly improves the total entropy change and reduce the absolute entropy change of the aerosol cooling process,and gives rise to an enhanced stability of the water-based aerosol.The theoretical calculation methodology contributes to an abstemious time and space for sieving the water-based aerosol with desirable performance and stability,and provides the powerful guarantee to the homeland security.展开更多
The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst asses...The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.展开更多
The prediction and control of furnace heat indicators are of great importance for improving the heat levels and conditions of the complex and difficult-to-operate hour-class delay blast furnace(BF)system.In this work,...The prediction and control of furnace heat indicators are of great importance for improving the heat levels and conditions of the complex and difficult-to-operate hour-class delay blast furnace(BF)system.In this work,a prediction and feedback model of furnace heat indicators based on the fusion of data-driven and BF ironmaking processes was proposed.The data on raw and fuel materials,process op-eration,smelting state,and slag and iron discharge during the whole BF process comprised 171 variables with 9223 groups of data and were comprehensively analyzed.A novel method for the delay analysis of furnace heat indicators was established.The extracted delay variables were found to play an important role in modeling.The method that combined the genetic algorithm and stacking efficiently im-proved performance compared with the traditional machine learning algorithm in improving the hit ratio of the furnace heat prediction model.The hit ratio for predicting the temperature of hot metal in the error range of±10℃ was 92.4%,and that for the chemical heat of hot metal in the error range of±0.1wt%was 93.3%.On the basis of the furnace heat prediction model and expert experience,a feedback model of furnace heat operation was established to obtain quantitative operation suggestions for stabilizing BF heat levels.These sugges-tions were highly accepted by BF operators.Finally,the comprehensive and dynamic model proposed in this work was successfully ap-plied in a practical BF system.It improved the BF temperature level remarkably,increasing the furnace temperature stability rate from 54.9%to 84.9%.This improvement achieved considerable economic benefits.展开更多
Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a gro...Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a ground threat prediction-based path planning method is proposed based on artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm by collaborative thinking strategy.Firstly,a dynamic threat distribution probability model is developed based on the characteristics of typical ground threats.The dynamic no-fly zone of the UAH is simulated and established by calculating the distribution probability of ground threats in real time.Then,a dynamic path planning method for UAH is designed in complex environment based on the real-time prediction of ground threats.By adding the collision warning mechanism to the path planning model,the flight path could be dynamically adjusted according to changing no-fly zones.Furthermore,a hybrid enhanced ABC algorithm is proposed based on collaborative thinking strategy.The proposed algorithm applies the leader-member thinking mechanism to guide the direction of population evolution,and reduces the negative impact of local optimal solutions caused by collaborative learning update strategy,which makes the optimization performance of ABC algorithm more controllable and efficient.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ground threat prediction path planning method.展开更多
This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while ...This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.展开更多
A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adh...A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.展开更多
Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have dev...Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model,the geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,the random forest model,and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000 to 2019 in Jilin Province.The models,along with a distribution map are presented in this paper to provide a theoretical basis for forest fire management in this area.Existing studies show that the prediction accuracies of the two machine learning models are higher than those of the three generalized linear regression models.The accuracies of the random forest model,the support vector machine model,geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,and logistic model were 88.7%,87.7%,86.0%,85.0%and 84.6%,respectively.Weather is the main factor affecting forest fires,while the impacts of topography factors,human and social-economic factors on fire occurrence were similar.展开更多
With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can b...With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.展开更多
Considering the phase behaviors in condensate gas reservoirs and the oil-gas two-phase linear flow and boundary-dominated flow in the reservoir,a method for predicting the relationship between oil saturation and press...Considering the phase behaviors in condensate gas reservoirs and the oil-gas two-phase linear flow and boundary-dominated flow in the reservoir,a method for predicting the relationship between oil saturation and pressure in the full-path of tight condensate gas well is proposed,and a model for predicting the transient production from tight condensate gas wells with multiphase flow is established.The research indicates that the relationship curve between condensate oil saturation and pressure is crucial for calculating the pseudo-pressure.In the early stage of production or in areas far from the wellbore with high reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using early-stage production dynamic data through material balance models.In the late stage of production or in areas close to the wellbore with low reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using the data of constant composition expansion test.In the middle stages of production or when reservoir pressure is at an intermediate level,the data obtained from the previous two stages can be interpolated to form a complete full-path relationship curve between oil saturation and pressure.Through simulation and field application,the new method is verified to be reliable and practical.It can be applied for prediction of middle-stage and late-stage production of tight condensate gas wells and assessment of single-well recoverable reserves.展开更多
Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the pre...Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.展开更多
Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial pertur...Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.展开更多
Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of ...Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.展开更多
The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was p...The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.展开更多
To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method...To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.展开更多
Accurately predicting fluid forces acting on the sur-face of a structure is crucial in engineering design.However,this task becomes particularly challenging in turbulent flow,due to the complex and irregular changes i...Accurately predicting fluid forces acting on the sur-face of a structure is crucial in engineering design.However,this task becomes particularly challenging in turbulent flow,due to the complex and irregular changes in the flow field.In this study,we propose a novel deep learning method,named mapping net-work-coordinated stacked gated recurrent units(MSU),for pre-dicting pressure on a circular cylinder from velocity data.Specifi-cally,our coordinated learning strategy is designed to extract the most critical velocity point for prediction,a process that has not been explored before.In our experiments,MSU extracts one point from a velocity field containing 121 points and utilizes this point to accurately predict 100 pressure points on the cylinder.This method significantly reduces the workload of data measure-ment in practical engineering applications.Our experimental results demonstrate that MSU predictions are highly similar to the real turbulent data in both spatio-temporal and individual aspects.Furthermore,the comparison results show that MSU predicts more precise results,even outperforming models that use all velocity field points.Compared with state-of-the-art methods,MSU has an average improvement of more than 45%in various indicators such as root mean square error(RMSE).Through comprehensive and authoritative physical verification,we estab-lished that MSU’s prediction results closely align with pressure field data obtained in real turbulence fields.This confirmation underscores the considerable potential of MSU for practical applications in real engineering scenarios.The code is available at https://github.com/zhangzm0128/MSU.展开更多
Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical res...Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation o f China(62073330)。
文摘Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62272478,62202496,61872384).
文摘Among steganalysis techniques,detection against MV(motion vector)domain-based video steganography in the HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding)standard remains a challenging issue.For the purpose of improving the detection performance,this paper proposes a steganalysis method that can perfectly detectMV-based steganography in HEVC.Firstly,we define the local optimality of MVP(Motion Vector Prediction)based on the technology of AMVP(Advanced Motion Vector Prediction).Secondly,we analyze that in HEVC video,message embedding either usingMVP index orMVD(Motion Vector Difference)may destroy the above optimality of MVP.And then,we define the optimal rate of MVP as a steganalysis feature.Finally,we conduct steganalysis detection experiments on two general datasets for three popular steganographymethods and compare the performance with four state-ofthe-art steganalysis methods.The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed feature set.Furthermore,our method stands out for its practical applicability,requiring no model training and exhibiting low computational complexity,making it a viable solution for real-world scenarios.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81825009,82071505,81901358)the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2021-I2MC&T-B-099,2019-I2M-5–006)+2 种基金the Program of Chinese Institute for Brain Research Beijing(2020-NKX-XM-12)the King’s College London-Peking University Health Science Center Joint Institute for Medical Research(BMU2020KCL001,BMU2019LCKXJ012)the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFF1201103,2016YFC1307000).
文摘Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).
基金the financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52104013)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2022T150724)。
文摘Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.
基金supported by the Preparation and Characterization of Fogging Agents,Cooperative Project of China(Grant No.1900030040)Preparation and Test of Fogging Agents,Cooperative Project of China(Grant No.2200030085)。
文摘Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of the water-based aerosol is always unsatisfactory due to the rapid evaporation and sedimentation of the aerosol droplets.Great efforts have been devoted to improve the stability of water-based aerosol by using additives with different composition and proportion.However,the lack of the criterion and principle for screening the effective additives results in excessive experimental time consumption and cost.And the stabilization time of the aerosol is still only 30 min,which could not meet the requirements of the perdurable interference.Herein,to improve the stability of water-based aerosol and optimize the complex formulation efficiently,a theoretical calculation method based on thermodynamic entropy theory is proposed.All the factors that influence the shielding effect,including polyol,stabilizer,propellant,water and cosolvent,are considered within calculation.An ultra-stable water-based aerosol with long duration over 120 min is obtained with the optimal fogging agent composition,providing enough time for fighting the electro-optic weapon.Theoretical design guideline for choosing the additives with high phase transition temperature and low phase transition enthalpy is also proposed,which greatly improves the total entropy change and reduce the absolute entropy change of the aerosol cooling process,and gives rise to an enhanced stability of the water-based aerosol.The theoretical calculation methodology contributes to an abstemious time and space for sieving the water-based aerosol with desirable performance and stability,and provides the powerful guarantee to the homeland security.
文摘The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.
基金financially supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52274326)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. N2425031)+3 种基金Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan (No. ZX20220553)China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation (No. BWLCF202109)The key technology research and development and application of digital transformation throughout the iron and steel production process (No. 2023JH2/101800058)Liaoning Province Science and Technology Plan Joint Program (Key Research and Development Program Project)
文摘The prediction and control of furnace heat indicators are of great importance for improving the heat levels and conditions of the complex and difficult-to-operate hour-class delay blast furnace(BF)system.In this work,a prediction and feedback model of furnace heat indicators based on the fusion of data-driven and BF ironmaking processes was proposed.The data on raw and fuel materials,process op-eration,smelting state,and slag and iron discharge during the whole BF process comprised 171 variables with 9223 groups of data and were comprehensively analyzed.A novel method for the delay analysis of furnace heat indicators was established.The extracted delay variables were found to play an important role in modeling.The method that combined the genetic algorithm and stacking efficiently im-proved performance compared with the traditional machine learning algorithm in improving the hit ratio of the furnace heat prediction model.The hit ratio for predicting the temperature of hot metal in the error range of±10℃ was 92.4%,and that for the chemical heat of hot metal in the error range of±0.1wt%was 93.3%.On the basis of the furnace heat prediction model and expert experience,a feedback model of furnace heat operation was established to obtain quantitative operation suggestions for stabilizing BF heat levels.These sugges-tions were highly accepted by BF operators.Finally,the comprehensive and dynamic model proposed in this work was successfully ap-plied in a practical BF system.It improved the BF temperature level remarkably,increasing the furnace temperature stability rate from 54.9%to 84.9%.This improvement achieved considerable economic benefits.
文摘Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a ground threat prediction-based path planning method is proposed based on artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm by collaborative thinking strategy.Firstly,a dynamic threat distribution probability model is developed based on the characteristics of typical ground threats.The dynamic no-fly zone of the UAH is simulated and established by calculating the distribution probability of ground threats in real time.Then,a dynamic path planning method for UAH is designed in complex environment based on the real-time prediction of ground threats.By adding the collision warning mechanism to the path planning model,the flight path could be dynamically adjusted according to changing no-fly zones.Furthermore,a hybrid enhanced ABC algorithm is proposed based on collaborative thinking strategy.The proposed algorithm applies the leader-member thinking mechanism to guide the direction of population evolution,and reduces the negative impact of local optimal solutions caused by collaborative learning update strategy,which makes the optimization performance of ABC algorithm more controllable and efficient.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ground threat prediction path planning method.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB3701705).
文摘This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.
基金the High-Performance Computing Platform of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(BUCT)for supporting this papersupported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JD2319)+2 种基金the CNOOC Technical Cooperation Project(ZX2022ZCTYF7612)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775029,52004014)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(XK2020-04)。
文摘A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant no.32271881).
文摘Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model,the geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,the random forest model,and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000 to 2019 in Jilin Province.The models,along with a distribution map are presented in this paper to provide a theoretical basis for forest fire management in this area.Existing studies show that the prediction accuracies of the two machine learning models are higher than those of the three generalized linear regression models.The accuracies of the random forest model,the support vector machine model,geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,and logistic model were 88.7%,87.7%,86.0%,85.0%and 84.6%,respectively.Weather is the main factor affecting forest fires,while the impacts of topography factors,human and social-economic factors on fire occurrence were similar.
基金This work was supported by the Beijing Nova Program[Z211100002121136]Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution[SKL-K202103]+1 种基金Joint Funds of National Natural Science Foundation of China[U19B6003-02]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[42302149].We would like to thank Prof.Zhu Rixiang from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52104049)Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by BAST(BYESS2023262)Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(2462022BJRC004).
文摘Considering the phase behaviors in condensate gas reservoirs and the oil-gas two-phase linear flow and boundary-dominated flow in the reservoir,a method for predicting the relationship between oil saturation and pressure in the full-path of tight condensate gas well is proposed,and a model for predicting the transient production from tight condensate gas wells with multiphase flow is established.The research indicates that the relationship curve between condensate oil saturation and pressure is crucial for calculating the pseudo-pressure.In the early stage of production or in areas far from the wellbore with high reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using early-stage production dynamic data through material balance models.In the late stage of production or in areas close to the wellbore with low reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using the data of constant composition expansion test.In the middle stages of production or when reservoir pressure is at an intermediate level,the data obtained from the previous two stages can be interpolated to form a complete full-path relationship curve between oil saturation and pressure.Through simulation and field application,the new method is verified to be reliable and practical.It can be applied for prediction of middle-stage and late-stage production of tight condensate gas wells and assessment of single-well recoverable reserves.
文摘Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.
基金supported by the Joint Funds of the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC)(Grant No.U2242213)the National Key Research and Development (R&D)Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No. 2021YFC3000902)the National Science Foundation for Young Scholars (Grant No. 42205166)。
文摘Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.
基金supported by Science and Technology Plan Project of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Transportation“Research and System Development of Highway Asset Digitalization Technology inUse Based onHigh-PrecisionMap”(Project Number:202203)in part by Science and Technology Plan Project of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Transportation:Research and Demonstration Application of Key Technologies for Precise Sensing of Expressway Thrown Objects(No.202204).
文摘Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFB3706800,2020YFB1710100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51821001,52090042,52074183)。
文摘The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52175099)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671494)+1 种基金the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds(Grant No.2020Z179)the Nanjing University of Science and Technology Independent Research Program(Grant No.30920021105)。
文摘To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.
基金supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS)KAKENHI(JP22H03643)Japan Science and Technology Agency(JST)Support for Pioneering Research Initiated by the Next Generation(SPRING)(JPMJSP2145)+2 种基金JST Through the Establishment of University Fellowships Towards the Creation of Science Technology Innovation(JPMJFS2115)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52078382)the State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering(CE19-A-01)。
文摘Accurately predicting fluid forces acting on the sur-face of a structure is crucial in engineering design.However,this task becomes particularly challenging in turbulent flow,due to the complex and irregular changes in the flow field.In this study,we propose a novel deep learning method,named mapping net-work-coordinated stacked gated recurrent units(MSU),for pre-dicting pressure on a circular cylinder from velocity data.Specifi-cally,our coordinated learning strategy is designed to extract the most critical velocity point for prediction,a process that has not been explored before.In our experiments,MSU extracts one point from a velocity field containing 121 points and utilizes this point to accurately predict 100 pressure points on the cylinder.This method significantly reduces the workload of data measure-ment in practical engineering applications.Our experimental results demonstrate that MSU predictions are highly similar to the real turbulent data in both spatio-temporal and individual aspects.Furthermore,the comparison results show that MSU predicts more precise results,even outperforming models that use all velocity field points.Compared with state-of-the-art methods,MSU has an average improvement of more than 45%in various indicators such as root mean square error(RMSE).Through comprehensive and authoritative physical verification,we estab-lished that MSU’s prediction results closely align with pressure field data obtained in real turbulence fields.This confirmation underscores the considerable potential of MSU for practical applications in real engineering scenarios.The code is available at https://github.com/zhangzm0128/MSU.
文摘Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.