Specialization or Diversification:Which is More Conducive to Foreign Trade Resilience?Evidence from China-Russia Border Regions in Northeast China

Under the background of complex international situation,how to build the special geo-economic space of China-Russia bor-der lies in strengthening their foreign trade resilience against external shocks.Based on empirical evidence from ten prefecture-level China-Russia border regions in Northeast China,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of foreign trade resilience under dif-ferent shocks.Furthermore,through the Panel Regression model,the mechanism of the industrial structure on the foreign trade resili-ence in contraction period and expansion period was discussed.The results showed that:1)from 2004 to 2021,foreign trade in China-Russia border regions experienced five phases.The overall foreign trade resilience was higher than expected,showing a rising volatility trend,but there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the ability of cities to cope with shocks.2)Highly specialized clusters were mainly concentrated in Yichun,Heihe and Da Hinggan Ling Prefecture,while Mudanjiang and Yanbian performed better in related and unrelated diversification.3)In different stages of economic system evolution,the response mode,degree and result of border foreign trade resilience to regional industrial structure showed obvious stage characteristics.During the contraction period,related diversifica-tion was more conducive to improving the resistance through risk spillovers.During the expansion period,specialization played a more significant role in improving regional resilience through self-reinforcing effect.These results are beneficial for expanding the resilience theory,ensuring border economic security and optimizing border industrial investment layout.

Permafrost warming along the Mo'he-Jiagedaqi section of the China-Russia crude oil pipeline

The permafrost along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP) is degrading since the pipeline operation in 2011. Heat dissipated from the pipeline, climate warming and anthropogenic activities leads to permafrost warming. The processes of permafrost warming along the CRCOP were studied based on the monitoring of air and soil temperatures, and electrical resistivity tomography(ERT) surveys. Results show that:(1) the mean annual air temperature(MAAT) in permafrost regions along the CRCOP increased with a rate of 0.21°C/10a–0.40°C/10 a during the past five decades;(2) the mean annual ground temperature(MAGT, at-15 m depth) of undisturbed permafrost increased by 0.2°C and the natural permafrost table remained unchanged due to the zero-curtain effect;(3) permafrost surrounding the uninsulated pipeline right-of-way warmed significantly compared with that in a natural site. During 2012–2017, the MAGT and the artificial permafrost table, 2 m away from the pipeline centerline, increased at rates of 0.063°C/a and 1.0 m/a. The thaw bulb developed around the pipe and exhibits a faster lateral expansion;(4) 80-mm-thick insulation could reduce the heat exchange between the pipeline and underlying permafrost and then keep the permafrost and pipe stable. The MAGT and the artificial permafrost table, 4.8 m away from the center line of the pipeline, increased by 0.3°C/a and 0.43 m/a, respectively. Due to the heat disturbance caused by warm oil, the degradation of wetland, controlled burn each autumn and climate warming, the permafrost extent reduced and warmed significantly along the CRCOP route. Field observations provide basic data to clarify the interactions between CRCOP and permafrost degradation and environmental effects in the context of climate change.

Thermal state of soils in the active layer and underlain permafrost at the kilometer post 304 site along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline

On-site monitoring is very important for understanding formation mechanisms of frost hazards frequently occurring in pipeline foundation soils and for designing and deploying according mitigative measures in permafrost regions.Significant thaw subsidence of ground surfaces along the ChinaRussia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP) from Mo'he to Daqing,Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China have been observed at some segments underlain by ice-rich warm(>1.0°C) permafrost since the official operation in January 2011.Recent monitoring results of the thermal states of foundation soils at the kilometer post(KP) 304 site along the CRCOP are presented in this paper.The results indicate that during the period from 2012 to 2014,shallow soils(at the depths from0.8 to 4.0 m from ground surface) has warmed by approximately 1.0°C in the lateral range of 1.2 to 2.1 maway from the pipeline axis,and deeper permafrost(such as at the depth of 15 m,or the depth of zero annual amplitude of ground temperatures) by 0.08°C per year 4 m away from the pipe axis,and 0.07°C per year 5 m away from the pipeline axis.The results indicate an all-season talik has developed around and along the CRCOP.The thaw bulb,with a faster lateral expansion(compared with the vertical growth),enlarges in summer and shrinks in winter.This research will provide important references and bases for evaluating thermal influences of warm pipeline on permafrost and for design,construction,operation and maintenance of pipelines in permafrost regions.

Cold-region environments along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline and their management

The cold-region eco-environments along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP) in northern Northeast China are in disequilibrium due to the combined influences of pronounced climate warming and intensive anthropogenic activities.This is evidenced by the sharp areal reduction and northward shifting of the boreal forests,shrinking of wetlands,enhancing of soil erosion,accelerating degradation of permafrost and deteriorating of cold-region eco-environments.The degradation of permafrost plays an important role as an internal drive in the eco-environmental changes.Many components of the cold-region eco-environments,including frozen ground,forests,wetlands and peatlands,forest fires and 'heating island effect' of rapid urbanization,are interdependent,interactive,and integrated in the boreal ecosystems.The construction and long-term operation of the CRCOP system will inevitably disturb the cold-region environments along the pipeline.Therefore,a mandatory and carefully-elaborated environ-mental impact statement is indispensable for the proper mitigation of the ensued adverse impacts.Proper management,effective protection and practical rehabilitation of the damaged cold-region environments are a daunting,costly and long-term commitment.The recommended measures for protection and restoration of permafrost eco-environments along the pipeline route include adequate investigation,assessment and monitoring of permafrost and cold-region environments,compliance of pipeline construction and operation codes for environmental management,proper and timely re-vegetation,returning the cultivated lands to forests and grasslands,and effective mitigation of forest fire hazards.

Deepening China-Russia Oil and Gas Cooperation and Working together for an Energy Silk Road——Speech at the Special Conferenee for "Crossroads on the Silk Road"

I am very glad to be here in beautiful Vladivostok for the 4th Eastern Economic Forum and the special conference for “Crossroads on the Silk Road”.As we all know,President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in September 2013,which has been positively responded to and participated in by Russia;China and Russia proposed to build a comprehensive strategic partnership in May 2014 and further deepened this partnership in 2017;also,in May 2014,Russia proposed the establishment of the “Eurasian Economic Union” and started this effort in 2016;in June 2016,President Xi Jinping and President Putin proposed the establishment of a comprehensive partnership between Europe and Asia to jointly promote cooperation between Europe and Asia;at the SCO Qingdao Summit in this June,the heads of state of China and Russia once again pledged to work together on the international stage.

“I am willing to play a proactive role in China-Russia Scientific Research Exchanges”——Exclusive Interview with Dr. Konstantin Chingin, the awardee of 2018 Chinese Government Friendship Award

Professor Konstantin Chingin is engaged in the research of direct mass spectrum analysis in terms of basic theories,instrument development and applications and has achieved plenty of original results. He has done a lot in the fields of scientific research, platform construction。

Research on carbon emissions embodied in China-Russia trade under the background of the Belt and Road

Based on the latest China-Russia input-output data sets over the period from 2007 to 2015,this study quantified the flow of embodied carbon emissions in China-Russia trade using the emission embodied in bilateral trade(EEBT)approach.In addition,the structural decomposition analysis(SDA)was employed to identify the potential driving factors that affect embodied carbon in imports and exports.The results showed as follow.1)China was a net exporter of carbon emissions in bilateral trade between China and Russia during 2007–2015.Despite that the bilateral trade scale had expanded considerably,the net export volume of CO_(2)from China to Russia decreased from 13.21 Mt in 2007 to 4.45 Mt in 2015.2)From the perspective of different sectors,the metal manufacturing and the chemical sectors of China and Russia were the main sources of CO_(2)emissions.3)In terms of driving factors,it was found that the carbon emission coefficient was the main reason for contributing to embodied emission reduction.Moreover,the contribution rate of carbon emission coefficient to reduce the carbon emissions in imports reached to 95.26%,as well as 108.22%in exports.The bilateral trade scale was the main driver for the increase in embodied carbon emissions,and the contribution rate to embodied carbon emissions in imports and exports were 14.80%and 65.17%,respectively.4)This study argued that China and Russia should further optimize the energy structure and improve the energy efficiency and intermediate technology in the future.

普京总统第五任期的俄罗斯对外政策趋向

2024年,在俄乌冲突持续的背景下,俄罗斯迎来总统大选,普京再一次以较高的支持率胜选。普京胜选的主要因素包括:中央垂直管理的加强、制度建设和网络媒体管控,经济在止跌企稳中复苏,对外政策着重维护俄罗斯大国强国地位,民意基础坚实以及反对派势弱等。在新任期内,普京面临俄乌冲突持续、周边形势的恶化、统筹国家安全与经济发展等挑战,“危机应对”与“因势利导”成为俄罗斯对外政策的主要趋向。在可预见的政策时段,俄罗斯的对外政策及其团队和人员将保持稳定发展的特征。普京将会延续务实灵活的外交风格:对美国、北约和欧洲国家采取不同态度,缓和孤立局面;面对独联体国家对外部势力的逢迎采取不同对策,力求守住防线;因势利导,加速战略“转向”,发展与亚太国家及“全球南方”国家的关系;深化与中国的全面战略协作。困境下,俄罗斯重新布局对外政策,同时对外政策手段将具有更加多元化的体现。

俄乌冲突促使俄罗斯转向中国

俄乌冲突及其导致的俄罗斯与西方对抗促使俄转向中国。俄罗斯外贸、能源出口和金融等转向中国,因此中国成为俄最大贸易伙伴和能源市场,人民币成为俄主要外汇储备货币、国际结算货币和外汇交易货币。俄罗斯外交也在一定程度上转向中国,主要包括俄在构建世界新秩序和反对霸权主义、俄乌冲突国际调解以及欧亚地区安全治理方面倚重中国。转向中国是特殊时期俄罗斯被迫之选,权宜之法;是加强对华关系,不是向中国一边倒。在转向中国的同时,俄罗斯致力于经济本土化和外交多元化,随时准备缓和与美欧的关系。虽然中俄经贸关系呈现不平衡性和俄罗斯外交对中国有所倚重,但是两国关系总体上仍然是平等、互信、友好与合作的。中俄两国应继续在平等互利的基础上发展各领域合作——既不为美西方散布的“俄罗斯依附中国论”所离间,又要促进彼此经济依存与政治信任——以推动中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系持续发展。

“一带一路”背景下我国对俄罗斯轨道交通建设的推动机制

“一带一路”倡议背景下,我国深入俄罗斯轨道交通建设并发挥显著推动作用。既有中外文献、报道证实了我国在俄罗斯轨道交通项目中的实践能力,但其推动城市发展的内在机制仍待挖掘。本研究解构现实案例,从城市环境与经济社会效益两个层面系统性剖析我国推动俄罗斯轨道交通建设的具体机制。基于上述机制原理,本文提出应提倡全生命周期节能减碳、推进轨道影响区集约紧凑、加强轨道产业链深度合作、关注站点可达性高效联通等优化建议,为我国在“一带一路”倡议下推进国际轨道交通建设提供参考与指导。

GDI and GSI: China’s New Propositions for Global Governance

In the post-pandemic era,the global economic and security landscapes are fraught with complexities and uncertainties.Among them,four risk flashpoints merit attention:Certain countries are raising interest rates to subdue inflation,despite their already high levels of debt;the bulk commodities market is experiencing volatility,leading to global turbulence and change;trade protectionism is at the forefront of major-power rivalry in political and economic spheres;and regional security crises are compounding international tensions.Behind those flashpoints are contradictions that obstruct world peace and progress,including development imbalances,governance gaps,and structural tensions in global security.In the face of uncertainties,it is crucial for China to seize strategic opportunities and transform crises into favorable situations.China has launched the Global Development Initiative(GDI)and the Global Security Initiative(GSI)to contribute to global prosperity and security.The two initiatives demonstrate China’s commitment to addressing global deficits in peace,development,security,and governance.

新时代辽宁省与俄罗斯远东地区开展海洋合作研究

新时代以来,中俄关系达到了历史新高度,两国之间的合作交流也深入到海洋方面。中国辽宁和俄罗斯远东地区是东北亚区域的重要沿海地带,两地区之间开展海洋合作有利于海洋经济发展、东北亚海域安全和海洋生态环境治理。但双方海洋合作也面临着东北亚国际局势不稳定、双方基础设施互联互通水平不高、双方海洋产业有待优化、缺少有效法律制度保障等问题,阻碍了双方海洋合作的进一步发展。因此,辽宁省在与俄罗斯远东开展海洋合作时,应把握好“时”与“势”,加强在港航基础设施建设的合作投资,重视海洋新兴科技的合作研究,构建维护东北亚海域安全的合作机制,同时坚持绿色发展的海洋合作理念,从而为构建海洋命运共同体树立典范。

普京第四届总统任期的俄罗斯对外政策调整评析

2024年可谓“全球大选年”,其中俄罗斯总统选举引人注目。2018—2024年是普京作为俄罗斯总统的第四届任期,俄对外政策在理念和实践层面都有诸多调整。尤其是2022年乌克兰危机升级后,俄周边环境更加严峻,与西方关系跌至谷底,通过进一步发展与东方国家的双边、多边关系,俄对外政策加速“东向”进程。2023年3月,俄发布新版《俄罗斯联邦对外政策构想》。俄调整对外政策既有乌克兰危机升级的客观冲击,也有主动维护国家利益,再次探寻自身定位的主观因素。俄对外政策调整带来的影响将是长期的。俄试图通过在不同区域实施不同的对外政策,促进新的国际秩序加快调整与重塑。

“冰上丝绸之路”建设视角下中俄贸易路径

“冰上丝绸之路”作为连接中国和北极地区的新通道,是对共建“一带一路”的重要补充,对中俄两国的经贸合作具有重要的战略意义和经济价值,为中俄之间的贸易往来提供了新的路径。中俄联手开发北极航道,打造“冰上丝绸之路”,降低航运成本、提高运输效率、规避安全风险、提升航运安全,进一步扩大中俄在文化、经贸和旅游等方面的交流与合作,使中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系更加成熟坚韧,两国合作的内生动力和特殊价值的进一步显现。

中俄铁路线路主要技术标准对比研究

为适应“一带一路”倡议要求,满足中国铁路“走出去”需要,以对比分析的方法研究我国与俄罗斯铁路在平面曲线半径、缓和曲线长度、夹直线长度、线间距、限制坡度、坡段长度、竖曲线设置等线路主要技术标准的差异,得出以下结论:(1)俄铁路标准以“铁路等级”为核心,灵活性较高,有利于降低工程投资提高经济效益;(2)我国铁路标准从“路段速度”出发,突出了设计“服务运输”的根本理念,提高安全性和舒适度,提升了运输服务质量;(3)本研究成果对中俄铁路项目线路标准选择和设计规范修编具有指导和借鉴意义;可为我国与俄罗斯等1 520 mm轨距国家铁路互联互通政策制定提供参考。

内蒙古参与“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设的对策研究

内蒙古是“一带一路”特别是“中蒙俄经济走廊”的重要组成部分,加强与蒙古国、俄罗斯合作,既是国家发展大局的需要,也是内蒙古高质量发展的要求。“一带一路”倡议逐步向纵深推进,中国也加大了对沿线国家直接投资的力度。因受到沿线国家在政治、经济、文化等多种因素的差异化影响,中国开展的对外投资具有巨大的风险和挑战。中蒙俄三个国家深入进行经济合作,共建基础设施、共同构建经济风险预防机制、共同打造文旅融合,为中蒙俄三国的经济合作创造了坚实的基础。本文的研究内容是“一带一路”背景下,中蒙俄三国合作的现状,以及内蒙古参与“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设中的优势,在此基础上分析了“中蒙俄经济走廊”对内蒙古发展的促进作用,三国间要强化政府之间的合作、完善对外投资的法律制度,建立经济风险预防机制,加强专业人才的培养,有效防范内蒙古对外投资所带来的风险。

新时代中国与俄罗斯合作关系论述

当前世界处于百年未有之大变局,全球治理体系处在深度变革时期,风险和机遇推动世界各国积极寻求合作,这为中国和俄罗斯合作提供新驱动力。国家利益的契合是新时代中俄合作的内在基础。中俄外交战略目标和原则取向高度一致,有着共同的安全和发展威胁,这促使两国合作不断加深加强。新时代中俄双边合作无论是政府层面还是学术层面都表现得非常活跃,在经贸、科技等领域合作密切,体现出两国关系的高度互信、深度融合、外交立场一致等特征。此外,捍卫多边主义成为中俄相互支持、精诚合作的又一表现,展现出新时代中俄关系的高水平。总之,在高度契合的国家利益和坚实的务实合作带动下,中俄关系将行稳致远,为构建人类命运共同体注入强劲动力。

中蒙俄K3/K4次国际班列对沿线城市可达性的影响

以中蒙俄铁路K3/K4次班列沿线节点城市和区域为研究对象,分析了其节点城市与区域的可达性,并计算了节点城市之间的经济联系强度。结果表明,节点城市时间可达性呈现两端高、中间低的趋势,与节点城市到目的地城市的出行时间成正比;节点城市的经济可达性呈现两端低、中间高的趋势;K3/K4班列沿线有4个较明显的经济中心区,且中国城市之间的经济联系强度和俄罗斯西部城市之间的经济联系强度较高,此外中国与蒙古国之间的经济联系弱于蒙古国与俄罗斯之间的经济联系。受边境检查和转向架更换情况的影响,中蒙边境的二连浩特、扎门乌德和蒙俄边境的苏赫巴托尔、纳乌什基在上述计算结果中均表现出明显的特殊性。

地缘冲突下全球粮食危机的传导效应与中国因应之策

党的二十大报告提出,全方位夯实粮食安全根基。在地缘冲突不断加剧背景下,以俄乌冲突为切入点,构建俄乌冲突下粮食危机的生成逻辑,分析其传导效应,把握粮食供求结构性矛盾的内在机理,从而探索保障中国粮食安全的路径。研究表明:地缘冲突导致的粮食危机实质反映出全球粮食供求的结构性矛盾,在短期内俄乌冲突直接导致全球粮食价格上涨,随后传导至化肥和能源市场,间接推高粮食价格。俄乌冲突的持续发酵会引发更多外溢风险,一方面负向影响全球粮食产业链稳定,另一方面加剧中国粮食供给与市场压力,推高农资成本,同时增加中国贸易政策制定难度和风险。据此,提出保障中国粮食安全的4条路径:一是构建粮食进口多元化格局;二是完善中国粮食安全监测预警体系;三是健全粮食产业财政支持政策;四是畅通粮食流通内部循环。

新时代中俄推进远东地区农业务实合作研究

中俄关系进入新时代,两国之间的贸易项目越发多样化,其中两国农贸合作引人注目。因为远东地区土地资源丰富,接近中国消费市场,又因俄罗斯政府的进口替代政策及转向东方政策,所以俄罗斯十分重视远东地区的农业开发。俄罗斯加大对远东地区的开发力度,将其视为未来的粮食出口中心。中国因为处于农业结构调整的进程中,也十分重视远东地区的农业开发,并向远东地区注资合作。两国恰好在农业领域需求互补,因此联合开发远东便提上日程。该文旨在悉数俄罗斯农业及远东地区农业的发展状况,分析中俄两国在远东地区的农业合作项目,并提出推动两国在远东地区进一步深化农业合作的建议。