Coseismic Coulomb stress changes induced by a 2020-2021 M_(W)>7.0 Alaska earthquake sequence in and around the Shumagin gap and its influence on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction interface

Three M_(W)>7.0 earthquakes in 2020-2021 occurred in the Shumagin seismic gap and its adjacent area of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone,including the Mw7.8 Simeonof thrust earthquake on July 22,2020,the M_(W)7.6 Sand Point strike-slip earthquake on October 19,2020,and the M_(W)8.2 Chignik thrust earthquake on July 29,2021.The spatial and temporal proximity of these three earthquakes prompts us to probe stress-triggering effects among them.Here we examine the coseismic Coulomb stress change imparted by the three earthquakes and their influence on the subduction interface.Our results show that:(1)The Simeonof earthquake has strong loading effects on the subsequent Sand Point and Chignik earthquakes,with the Coulomb stress changes of 3.95 bars and 2.89 bars,respectively.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Sand Point earthquake at the hypocenter of the Chignik earthquake is merely around 0.01 bars,suggesting the negligible triggering effect on the latter earthquake;(2)The triggering effects of the Simeonof,Sand Point,and Chignik earthquakes on aftershocks within three months are not well pronounced because of the triggering rates of 38%,14%,and 43%respectively.Other factors may have played an important role in promoting the occurrence of these aftershocks,such as the roughness of the subduction interface,the complicated velocity structure of the lithosphere,and the heterogeneous prestress therein;(3)The three earthquakes caused remarkable coseismic Coulomb stress changes at the subduction interface nearby these mainshocks,with an average Coulomb stress change of 3.2 bars in the shallow region directly inwards the trench.

Numerical simulation of dynamic Coulomb stress changes induced by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, Yunnan and its relationship with aftershocks

Based on the discrete wavenumber method, we calculate the fields of dynamic Coulomb rupture stress changes and static stress changes caused by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, and study their relationship with the subsequent after- shocks. The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of the positive region of dynamic stress peak value and static stress peak value are similarly asymmetric, which are basically identical with distribution features of aftershock. The dynamic stress peak value and the static stress in the positive region are more than 0.1 MPa and 0.01 MPa of the triggering threshold, respectively, which indicates that the dynamic and static stresses are helpful for the occurrence of aftershock. This suggests that both influences of dynamic and static stresses should be con- sidered other than only either of them when studying aftershock triggering in near field.

Co-seismic Coulomb stress changes on the northern Tanlu fault zone caused by the Tohoku-Oki M_(W)9.0 earthquake

Based on the spherical earth dislocation theory and a fault slip model of the Tohoku-Oki M_(W)9.0 earthquake,the co-seismic Coulomb failure stress changes(ΔCFS)on the northern Tanlu fault zone at depths of 0–40 km are calculated.By comparing two sets of results from the spherical earth dislocation theory and the semi-infinite space one,the effect of earth curvature on the calculation results is analyzed quantitatively.First,we systematically summarize previous researches related to the northern Tanlu fault zone,divide the fault zone as detailed as possible,give the geometric parameters of each segment,and establish a segmented structural model of the northern Tanlu fault zone.Second,we calculate the Coulomb stress changes on the northern Tanlu fault zone by using the spherical earth dislocation theory.The result shows the Coulomb stress changes are no more than 0.003 MPa,which proves the great earthquake did not significantly change the stress state of the fault zone.Finally,we quantitatively analyze the disparities between the results of semi-infinite space dislocation theory and the spherical earth one.The average disparity between them is about 7.7%on the northern Tanlu fault zone and is 16.8%on the Fangzheng graben,the maximum disparity on this graben reaches up to 25.5%.It indicates that the effect of earth curvature can not be ignored.So it’s necessary to use the spherical earth dislocation theory instead of the semi-infinite space one to study the Coulomb stress change in the far field.

Investigation of Coulomb stress changes in south Tibet(central Himalayas) due to the 25th April 2015 M_W 7.8 Nepal earthquake using a Coulomb stress transfer model

After Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred, the rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. We present the calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 25th April event using models of regional faults designed according to south Tibet-Nepal structure, and show that some indicative significant stress increases. We calculate static stress changes caused by the displacement of a fault on which dislocations happen and an earthquake occurs. A Mw 7.3 earthquake broke on 12 May at a distance of - 130 km SEE of the Mw 7.8 earthquake, whose focus roughly located on high Coulomb stress change （CSC） site. Aftershocks （first 15 days after the mainshock） are associated with stress increase zone caused by the main rupture. We set receiver faults with specified strikes, dips, and rakes, on which the stresses imparted by the source fault are resolved. Four group normal faults to the north of the Nepal earthquake seismogenic fault were set as receiver faults and variant results followed. We provide a discussion on Coulomb stress transfer for the seismogenic fault, which is useful to identify potential future rupture zones.

On Estimating Magnitude of a Maximum Sequent Earthquake by Viscoelastic Coulomb Stress Change and a Discussion of the Relationship between the M_S7.3 Earthquakes in Yutian 2008 and 2014

On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.

Uncertainty Analysis of Static Coulomb Stress Change Induced by Earthquake-A Case Study on the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Static Coulomb stress change induced by earthquake slip is frequently used to explain earthquake activities and aftershock distribution.However,some parameters for the Coulomb stress calculation are unable to be well constrained from laboratory experiments and field observations.Different parameters may directly affect the pattern of static Coulomb stress.The static Coulomb stress changes induced by the Wenchuan earthquake calculated by six research groups are not consistent with each other.To investigate how the parameters affect the calculation results,we change the parameters in turn through modeling and compare the results of different calculation parameters.We find that gravity,position and strike of receiver faults have little influence on coseismic Coulomb stress calculations,but other parameters can change the value and sign of the results in various degrees especially around the earthquake rupture plane.Therefore the uncertainty analysis of static Coulomb stress change induced by earthquake should be taken into consideration in the earthquake hazard analysis.

The Coulomb Stress Change Associated with the Taiwan Straits M_S 7.3 Earthquake on September 16,1994 and the Risk Prediction of Its Surrounding Faults

Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.

Coulomb stress evolution along the Kongur Extensional System since 1895 and present seismic hazard

The present-day tectonic activities on the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau are mainly E-W oriented extensions, among which the Kongur Extensional System(KES) plays an important role in the internal expansion of the Pamir. As the largest earthquake since Taxkorgan earthquakes in 1895 and 1896, the Aketao earthquake occurred on the Muji fault on the northern portion of the KES in 2016. Since then, the trend of seismic activities along the KES has been paid much attention to. Based on the visco elastic layered lithosphere model, we calculate the co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes caused by five historical earthquakes on the KES and its adjacent areas since 1895, and analyze the interaction among strong earthquakes. The results show that all of the historical earthquakes after 1895 occurred in the areas where the co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress increased. Coulomb stress loading at the hypocenters of the 1896 Taxkorgan earthquake, the 1974 Markansu earthquake and the 2016 Aketao earthquake were 0.251 MPa, 0.013 MPa and 0.563 MPa, respectively. The three earthquakes were catalyzed by such variations. The historical earthquakes increased the stress state on most segments of the Southern Kungai Mountain fault and Kongur fault along the KES. In particular, we can identify 2 visible earthquake gaps with increasing seismic hazard formed on the Qimugan segment and Bulunkou segment of the KES. The Qimugan section and the Bulunkou section are located at the fault transition zone with concentrated stress and high extension rate, so great attention should be paid to their seismic hazard at present day.

Coulomb stress and gravity changes associated with the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake, New Zealand: Application for aftershock triggering and fault interaction process analysis

The Kaikoura earthquake on November 14,2016 is one of the largest and most complex earthquakes in New Zealand since 1947.Despite the fact that it has ruptured about 12 separate faults,triggered 2132 aftershocks within one week of the mainshock and induced considerable stress changes,few studies have been conducted to comprensively investigate the characteristics.The current study examines the horizontal and vertical displacements as well as the stress and gravity changes,aftershock distributions and also find out whether these changes affect the surrounding regions along the complex fault systems.The study covers the entire area affected by the Kaikoura event,which includes the northern part of the South Island and the southern part of the North Island.The dislocation theory was employed to evaluate the coseismic slip model on the multiple faults.The displacement results revealed that the maximum horizontal displacement is about 6 m and the vertical about 2 m,which are reasonably consistent with earlier study findings.Besides,the stress and gravity changes are quite complicated and inhomogeneous as evidenced by our coseismic model,demonstrating the complexity of the Kaikoura earthquake as well.Almost all the aftershocks are distributed in places where the stress and gravity change are found to be significant.In order to investigate the stability of our stress change models,we applied different friction coefficients and receiver fault parameters.The results justify the friction coefficient(μ=0.4)and the receiver fault parameters(230°,70°,150°)are suitable to define good stress change estimates.According to the stress change results at 15 km depth,the northern parts of the mainshock region,Hundalee fault,Humps fault and Jordan thrust areas together with the Wellington area are closer to failure and situated in a seismic risk zone.The multidimensional analysis adopted in this paper is helpful for making decisions and applications of stress and gravity change models in assessing seismic hazards.

Coulomb Stress Perturbations Related to the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Earthquakes of 1994 and 2004

This paper exposes the results of the study of the stress perturbations caused by the Al Hoceima (Morocco) earthquakes of 1994 and 2004 by means of Coulomb modeling. Modeling was based on the compilation of all the studies carried out after both events, including seismological (location and depth of the main shocks and aftershocks), seismotectonic (source parameters, stress field), geodetic (GPS), tomographic and geological ones. It shows that the first earthquake is likely to have induced the second one when adopting appropriate epicenter locations, source and receiver fault planes. In detail, the model shows that motion along the N23E oriented Bousekkour-Aghbal fault in 1994 activated the eastern segment of a previously unknown NW-SE fault located at its southern end, which in turn originated the 2004 earthquake. The model also provides a suitable explanation for the distribution of the aftershock clusters. Finally, an attempt of prediction of the next event shows that it is likely to occur on NE-SW planes located to the NW (Bokkoya and offshore) and SE (reaching the Nekor fault) of the NW-SE fault, while Al Hoceima city should remain in a shadow zone.

The South-Western Alboran Earthquake Sequence of January-March 2016 and Its Associated Coulomb Stress Changes

We expose the results of the study of the south-western Alboran seismic sequence of January-March 2016 and the stress perturbations it caused by means of Coulomb modeling. The use of data from numerous stations allowed us to relocate the largest events (Mw ≥ 3.8) south of those determined by IGN (Spain). The main shock of 25 January 2016 (Mw = 6.3) was relocated at 35.6133°N × 3.6888°W, at a hypocentral depth of 15.5 ± 6.0 km. The epicenters are aligned along two distinct clusters: The first runs N-S towards the Moroccan coast along Al-Idrissi fracture zone, while the second is centered on the Alboran ridge northern thrust fault. The focal mechanisms determined by different agencies correspond to a strike-slip/normal/reverse motion in the western cluster and thrusting in the eastern one. Coulomb stress change modeling shows that the main earthquake: (1) may have been triggered by stress accumulation by the 1994 and 2004 earthquakes;(2) has induced stress perturbations that provide a suitable explanation for the distribution of the aftershock clusters, including the eastern cluster. The prediction of the next event shows that it is likely to occur near the Moroccan coast.

Research on Frequency of the Aftershock Sequence of the Wenchuan Earthquake Based on Coseismic Coulomb Stress Change

By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake related to coseismic static Coulomb stress changes in its aftershock zone and the areas nearby.It shows that the frequency is significantly lower than the truth in the main rupture zone,especially in the southern rupture zone,due to the decrease of stress level on the rupture plane of the main shock resulting from coseismic Coulomb stress change.The study also shows that the effect of the Coulomb stress change on the duration of aftershock activity is associated with the lower limit magnitude.The duration is about 15-16 months for aftershocks above ML4.0,and close to 60 months for aftershocks above ML3.5.In this period,the ratio of the"direct"aftershocks caused by coseismic Coulomb stress change ranges between 44.7% to48.6%,which suggests that,even in the "effective"period of coseismic Coulomb stress changes,about half of the aftershocks on the main shock rupture plane are independent of coseismic Coulomb stress changes.It is pointed out that those aftershocks may be related to the afterslip or the viscoelastic relaxation,which are time dependent cases.

Evolution of Coulomb failure stress in Sulaiman Lobe,Pakistan,and its implications for seismic hazard assessment

In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian Plate.To date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the region.We thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the past.The final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 earthquake.We used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these earthquakes.The numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding earthquakes.The earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this sequence.Although the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS regions.The CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 doublet.Moreover,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these regions.The necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.

基于Coulomb-ETAS混合模型的强余震时空发生率预测及效能评估

为考察震后早期阶段混合模型的优势及实际预测效能,提升震后早期强余震时空预测的准确性,构建可操作的地震预测研究工作模型基础,选择能够较好反映震后空间应力分布的库仑应力变化和反映余震序列衰减且拟合效果较好的ETAS模型,构建Coulomb-ETAS混合模型。此模型依据强余震大多发生在应力加载区的实际情况,利用混合模型学习期间加载区事件的发生比例,将预测率从抑制区重新分配到加载区。以2021—2022年发生的云南漾濞6.5级、青海玛多7.4级、青海门源6.9级和四川泸定6.8级4次6.0级以上强震为例,对构建的混合模型进行检验和评估,并与单一的ETAS模型、C-RS模型进行对比。研究结果表明,3个模型在震后早期阶段对强余震均表现出相对较好的预测效果,呈现出与实际结果类似的衰减特性,仅有较少的预测失效现象。在频次滑动预测上,ETAS和Coulomb-ETAS模型优于C-RS模型,统计模型优势相对比较显著;在空间发生率预测上,Coulomb-ETAS模型优于ETAS模型,认为库仑应力分布的混合模型能够降低虚报率,进而提高空间预测的准确性。因此,从4次震例上看,该混合模型优于单一的统计模型和物理模型,能够较好地适用于主震后的强余震时空预测,也可为开展多个模型混合及强余震预测之外的地震预测业务应用场景提供参考。

Viscoelastic stress change from the 1931 M_(w)7.8 Fuyun earthquake and its impacts on seismic activity around the Altai mountains

The 1931 M_(w)7.8 Fuyun earthquake occurred around the Altai mountains, an intracontinental deformation belt with limited active strain-rate accumulation. To explore whether seismic activity in this deformation belt was affected by stress interaction among different active faults, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress change(ΔCFS) induced by the Fuyun earthquake due to coseismic deformation of the elastic crust and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. Numerical results show that the total ΔCFS at a 10-km depth produced by the Fuyun earthquake attains approximately 0.015-0.134 bar near the epicenter, and just before the occurrence of the 2003 M_(w)7.2 Chuya earthquake, which distances about 400 km away from the Fuyun earthquake. Among the increased ΔCFS,viscoelastic relaxation from 1931 to 2003 contributes to approximately 0.014-0.131 bar, accounting for>90% of the total ΔCFS. More importantly, we find that for the recorded seismicity in the region with a radius of about 270 km to the Fuyun earthquake from 1970 to 2018, the percentage of earthquakes that fall in positive lobes of ΔCFS resolved on the NNW-SSE Fuyun strike-slip fault, on the NWW-SEE Irtysh strike-slip fault, and on the NW-SE Kurti reverse fault is up to 67.22%-91.36%. Therefore, the predictedΔCFS suggests that the impact of the 1931 M_(w)7.8 Fuyun earthquake on seismic activity around the Altai mountains is still significant as to hasten occurrence of the 2003 M_(w)7.2 Chuya earthquake at a relatively far distance and to trigger its aftershocks in the near-field even after several decades of the mainshock.

岩石卸荷的Mogi-Coulomb强度准则适用性研究

大量工程实践表明:岩石在卸荷条件下的强度特性与加载条件下相比,存在本质上的不同。结合岩石卸荷的破坏特征和强度特性,建立了岩桥贯通力计算模型,并基于应力强度因子叠加减原理,推导了岩石卸荷条件下的岩桥贯通力计算公式,从而探究Mogi-Coulomb强度准则对于岩石卸荷强度的适用性。将岩桥贯通力作为表征岩石卸荷破坏的强度参数,并与Mogi-Coulomb强度准则的核心参数——八面体剪应力进行对比,发现二者的量值具有极高相似性,这一发现可以间接证明Mogi-Coulomb强度准则适用于岩石卸荷强度方面的相关研究。本文揭示了岩石卸荷破坏时其岩桥贯通与八面体剪应力之间存在的紧密联系,可为岩石卸荷破坏的研究提供借鉴与参考。

Coulomb Stress Evolution History as Implication on the Pattern of Strong Earthquakes along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System, China

Coulomb stress accumulation and releasing history and its relationship with the occur- rence of strong historical earthquakes could deepen our understanding of the occurrence pattern of strong earthquakes and hence its seismic potential in future. The sinistral strike-slip Xianshuihe- Xiaojiang fault zone （XXFS） is one of the most dangerous fault zones in China, extending 1 500-km- long from the central Tibetan Plateau to the Red River fault zone. There are 35 M≥6.5 historical earth- quakes occurred since 1327, hence it is an ideal site for studying the Coulomb stress evolution history and its relationship with the occurrences of strong earthquakes. In this study, we evaluated the Cou- lomb stress change history along the XXFS by synthesizing fault geometry, GPS data and historical earthquakes. Coulomb stress change history also revealed different patterns of historical earthquakes on different segments of the XXFS, such as characteristic recurrence intervals along the Salaha-Moxi fault and super-cycles along the Xianshuihe fault. Based on the occurrence pattern of past historical earthquakes and current Coulomb stress field obtained in this study, we suggest positive ACFS and hence high seismic potential along the Salaha-Moxi fault and the Anninghe fault.

Coulomb stress changes due to the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo Earthquake and expected seismicity rate changes in the surroundings

On May 22 nd,2021,an MS7.4 earthquake occurred near the Maduo county of the Qinghai Province,China,within the Bayan Har Block.Seismic activities have been intense in this block,thus whether the Maduo Earthquake will bring subsequent seismic hazards to its surrounding regions raises wide concerns.In this paper,we first calculated the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Maduo Earthquake on nearby faults,and estimated how much these faults are brought closer or further from their next failures based on their stressing rates.Next,we combined the Coulomb failure stress changes with the rate-state frictional law to estimate the seismicity rate in the study region in the next decade.A declustered catalogue before the Maduo Earthquake was adopted to calculate background seismicity rate,and rate-state parameters are constrained by fault slip rates.Our results show that the Maduo Earthquake increases stress accumulations in the northwestern portion of the Qingshuihe fault(0.02 MPa at maximum),the two ends of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault(0.01 MPa at maximum),and the northwestern portion of the Maduo-Gande fault(on average~0.09 MPa),and seismicity rates are expected to increase near these faults.What is especially worth noting is the seismic hazard in the region extending from the eastern end of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault to the Maqin-Maqu seismic gap on the Eastern Kunlun fault,which is calculated to have experienced a maximum stress increase of 0.67 MPa after the Maduo Earthquake.On the other hand,stress accumulations are reduced in the southern end of the Elashan fault,the Eastern Kunlun fault segment to the west of Maduo,and the northwestern portion of the Dari fault.Seismic hazards are expected to be low in these regions.For the study region as a whole,the probability of an M≥6 earthquake taking place in the next decade is estimated to be 59%,about twice the value calculated for the time period before the Maduo Earthquake.

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes （M≥7.0） and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes （M≥7.0） investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Cumulative Coulomb Failure Stress Change in the Basin- range Region of West Beijing and Its Effect on Strong Earthquakes

Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area.