Development of a Downscaling Method in China Regional Summer Precipitation Prediction

A downscaling method taking into account of precipitation regionalization is developed and used in the regional summer precipitation prediction （RSPP） in China. The downscaling is realized by utilizing the optimal subset regression based on the hindcast data of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate Model of National Climate Center （CGCM/NCC）, the historical reanalysis data, and the observations. The data are detrended in order to remove the influence of the interannual variations on the selection of predictors for the RSPP. Optimal predictors are selected through calculation of anomaly correlation coefficients （ACCs） twice to ensure that the high-skill areas of the CGCM/NCC are also those of observations, with the ACC value reaching the 0.05 significant level. One-year out cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that the downscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly across most of China/vith high and stable accuracy, and is much better than the direct CGCM/NCC prediction. The predictors used in the downscaling method for the RSPP are independent and have strong physical meanings, thus leading to the improvements in the prediction of regional precipitation anomalies.

Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan

Danghara,a major food production area in southern Tajikistan,is currently suffering from the impact of rapid climate change and intensive human activities.Assessing the future impact of climate change on crop water requirements(CWRs)for the current growing period and defining the optimal sowing date to reduce future crop water demand are essential for local/regional water and food planning.Therefore,this study attempted to analyze possible future climate change effects on the water requirements of major crops using the statistical downscaling method in the Danghara District to simulate the future temperature and precipitation for two future periods(2021-2050 and 2051-2080),under three representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)according to the CanESM2 global climate model.The water footprint(WFP)of major crops was calculated as a measure of their CWRs.The increased projection of precipitation and temperature probably caused an increase in the main crop’s WFP for the current growing period,which was mainly due to the green water(GW)component in the long term and a decrease in the blue water(BW)component during the second future period,except for cotton,where all components were predicted to remain stable.Under three scenarios for the two future potato and winter wheat decreased from 5.7%to 4.8%and 3.4%to 2.2%,respectively.Although the WFP of cotton demonstrated a stable increase,according to the optimal sowing date,adecrease in irrigation demand or Bw was expected.The results of our study might be useful fordeveloping a new strategy related to irrigation systems and could help to find a balance betweenwater and food for environmental water demands and human use.

A new scheme of climate-vegetation regionalization in the Hengduan Mountains Region

The Hengduan Mountains Region(HMR) is essential for the future ecological protection, clean energy production,Sichuan-Xizang and Yunnan-Xizang railways, and other major infrastructure projects in China. The distributions of climate and vegetation exhibit significant regional differentiation and vertical zonality due to the rugged longitudinal ranges and gorges and the complex disaster-prone environments in HMR. Therefore, it is urgent to develop the climate-vegetation regionalization in HMR to effectively satisfy the national requirements such as agricultural production and ecological protection, mountain disaster risk prevention, and major project construction. We here develop a new scheme of climate-vegetation regionalization with the latest demarcation outcome of HMR, the ground observation from 122 meteorological stations in HMR and its surrounding areas during 1990–2019, and the high-precision remote sensing data of land cover types. The new scheme first constructs the regionalization index system, fully considering the extraordinarily complicated geomorphic pattern of mountains and valleys, the scarcity of meteorological observations, and the remarkable differentiation of climate and vegetation in HMR. The system consists of three primary regionalization indices(i.e., days with daily average temperature steady above 10°C, aridity index, and main vegetation types, dividing the temperature zones, moisture regions, and vegetation subregions, respectively) and three auxiliary indices of the accumulated temperature above 10°C, and the temperatures in January and July. Then, the HMR is divided into five temperature zones, 20 moisture regions, and 55 vegetation subregions. Compared with previous regionalization schemes, the new scheme optimizes the climate spatial interpolation model of thin plate smoothing spline suitable for the unique terrain in HMR. Moreover, the disputed division index threshold between different climatic zones(regions) is scientifically clarified using geographical detectors. Specifically, the stepwise downscaling pane division method is initially proposed to determine the zoning boundary, alleviating the excessive dependence of the traditional zoning method on subjective experience.Besides, the scheme considers the typical regional characteristics of the complex underlying surface and the high gradient zone of climate-vegetation distribution types in HMR. Consequently, the transition zone with quick climate changes between the plateau temperate and mid-subtropical zones is divided into mountainous subtropics, taking into account the spatial distribution characteristics of climate-vegetation regionalization indices. The regionalization scheme will provide practically theoretical support for agricultural production, ecological protection, major project construction, disaster prevention and relief efforts, and other socioeconomic activities in HMR, serving as a classic case of climate-vegetation regionalization for the alpine and canyon regions with intricate underlying surface, striking regional differences, and lack of ground observations.