This paper covers the concept of Fourier series and its application for a periodic signal. A periodic signal is a signal that repeats its pattern over time at regular intervals. The idea inspiring is to approximate a ...This paper covers the concept of Fourier series and its application for a periodic signal. A periodic signal is a signal that repeats its pattern over time at regular intervals. The idea inspiring is to approximate a regular periodic signal, under Dirichlet conditions, via a linear superposition of trigonometric functions, thus Fourier polynomials are constructed. The Dirichlet conditions, are a set of mathematical conditions, providing a foundational framework for the validity of the Fourier series representation. By understanding and applying these conditions, we can accurately represent and process periodic signals, leading to advancements in various areas of signal processing. The resulting Fourier approximation allows complex periodic signals to be expressed as a sum of simpler sinusoidal functions, making it easier to analyze and manipulate such signals.展开更多
The current paper considers the problem of recovering a function using a limited number of its Fourier coefficients. Specifically, a method based on Bernoulli-like polynomials suggested and developed by Krylov, Lanczo...The current paper considers the problem of recovering a function using a limited number of its Fourier coefficients. Specifically, a method based on Bernoulli-like polynomials suggested and developed by Krylov, Lanczos, Gottlieb and Eckhoff is examined. Asymptotic behavior of approximate calculation of the so-called "jumps" is studied and asymptotic L2 constants of the rate of convergence of the method are computed.展开更多
A new Rogosinski-type kernel function is constructed using kernel function of partial sums Sn(f; t) of generalized Fourier series on a parallel hexagon domain Ω associating with threedirection partition. We prove t...A new Rogosinski-type kernel function is constructed using kernel function of partial sums Sn(f; t) of generalized Fourier series on a parallel hexagon domain Ω associating with threedirection partition. We prove that an operator Wn(f; t) with the new kernel function converges uniformly to any continuous function f(t) ∈ Cn(Ω) (the space of all continuous functions with period Ω) on Ω. Moreover, the convergence order of the operator is presented for the smooth approached function.展开更多
The key objective of this paper is to improve the approximation of a sufficiently smooth nonperiodic function defined on a compact interval by proposing alternative forms of Fourier series expansions. Unlike in classi...The key objective of this paper is to improve the approximation of a sufficiently smooth nonperiodic function defined on a compact interval by proposing alternative forms of Fourier series expansions. Unlike in classical Fourier series, the expansion coefficients herein are explicitly dependent not only on the function itself, but also on its derivatives at the ends of the interval. Each of these series expansions can be made to converge faster at a desired polynomial rate. These results have useful implications to Fourier or harmonic analysis, solutions to differential equations and boundary value problems, data compression, and so on.展开更多
Permafrost,being an important component of the cryosphere,is sensitive to climate change.Therefore,it is necessary to investigate the change of temperature within permafrost.In this study,we proposed a Fourier series ...Permafrost,being an important component of the cryosphere,is sensitive to climate change.Therefore,it is necessary to investigate the change of temperature within permafrost.In this study,we proposed a Fourier series model derived from the conduction equation to simulate permafrost thermal behavior over a year.The boundary condition was represented by the Fourier series and the geothermal gradient.The initial condition was represented as a linear function relative to the geothermal gradient.A comparative study of the different models(sinusoidal model,Fourier series model,and the proposed model)was conducted.Data collected from the northern Da Xing’anling Mountains,Northeast China,were applied for parameterization and validation for these models.These models were compared with daily mean ground temperature from the shallow permafrost layer and annual mean ground temperature from the bottom permafrost layer,respectively.Model performance was assessed using three coefficients of accuracy,i.e.,the mean bias error,the root mean square error,and the coefficient of determination.The comparison results showed that the proposed model was accurate enough to simulate temperature variation in both the shallow and bottom permafrost layer as compared with the other two Fourier series models(sinusoidal model and Fourier model).The proposed model expanded on a previous Fourier series model for which the initial and bottom boundary conditions were restricted to being constant.展开更多
Let f be an H-periodic HOlder continuous function of two real variables.The error ||f-Nn (p;f)|| is estimated in the uniform norm and in the Holder norm,where p=(pk)k=0∞is a nonincreasing sequence of positive...Let f be an H-periodic HOlder continuous function of two real variables.The error ||f-Nn (p;f)|| is estimated in the uniform norm and in the Holder norm,where p=(pk)k=0∞is a nonincreasing sequence of positive numbers and Nn (p;f) is thenth Norlund mean of hexagonal Fourier series of f with respect to p = (pk)k∞=0.展开更多
In this paper we consider the approximation for functions in some subspaces of L^2 by spherical means of their Fourier integrals and Fourier series on set of full measure. Two main theorems are obtained.
In this paper we prove that if f ∈ C ([-π, π]^2) and the function f is bounded partial p-variation for some p ∈[1, +∞), then the double trigonometric Fourier series of a function f is uniformly (C;-α,-β) ...In this paper we prove that if f ∈ C ([-π, π]^2) and the function f is bounded partial p-variation for some p ∈[1, +∞), then the double trigonometric Fourier series of a function f is uniformly (C;-α,-β) summable (α+β 〈 1/p,α,β 〉 0) in the sense of Pringsheim. If α + β ≥ 1/p, then there exists a continuous function f0 of bounded partial p-variation on [-π,π]^2 such that the Cesàro (C;-α,-β) means σn,m^-α,-β(f0;0,0) of the double trigonometric Fourier series of f0 diverge over cubes.展开更多
The concept of convex type function is introduced in this paper,from which a kin d of convex decomposition approach is proposed.As one of applications of this a pproach,the approximation of the convex type function b...The concept of convex type function is introduced in this paper,from which a kin d of convex decomposition approach is proposed.As one of applications of this a pproach,the approximation of the convex type function by the partial sum of its Fourier series is inves tigated.Moreover,the order of approximation is describe d with the 2th continuous modulus.展开更多
This paper finds a way to extend the well-known Fourier methods, to so-called n+1 directions partition domains in n-dimension. In particular, in 2-D and 3-D cases, we study Fourier methods over 3-direction parallel he...This paper finds a way to extend the well-known Fourier methods, to so-called n+1 directions partition domains in n-dimension. In particular, in 2-D and 3-D cases, we study Fourier methods over 3-direction parallel hexagon partitions and 4-direction parallel parallelogram dodecahedron partitions, respectively. It has pointed that, the most concepts and results of Fourier methods on tensor-product case, such as periodicity,orthogonality of Fourier basis system, partial sum of Fourier series and its approximation behavior, can be moved on the new non tensor-product partition case.展开更多
Fourier series analysis is proposed as a new technique to address the problem of“sub-pixel motion”in deriving cloud motion winds(CMW)from high temporal resolution images.Based on a concept different from that of max...Fourier series analysis is proposed as a new technique to address the problem of“sub-pixel motion”in deriving cloud motion winds(CMW)from high temporal resolution images.Based on a concept different from that of maximum correlation matching technique,the Fourier technique computes phase speed as an estimate of cloud motion.It is very effective for tracking small cellular clouds in 1-min interval images and more efficient for computation than the maximum correlation technique because only two templates in same size are involved in primary tracking procedure. Moreover it obtains not only CMW vectors but potentially also velocity spectrum and variance.A practical example is given to show the cloud motion winds from 1-min interval images with the Fourier method versus those from traditional 30-min interval images with maximum correlation technique.Problems that require further investigation before the Fourier technique can be regarded as a viable technique,especially for cloud tracking with high temporal resolution images,are also revealed.展开更多
The process of formation reconfiguration for close-range satellite formation should take into account the risk of collisions between satellites.To this end,this paper presents a method to rapidly generate low-thrust c...The process of formation reconfiguration for close-range satellite formation should take into account the risk of collisions between satellites.To this end,this paper presents a method to rapidly generate low-thrust collision-avoidance trajectories in the formation reconfiguration using Finite Fourier Series(FFS).The FFS method can rapidly generate the collision-avoidance threedimensional trajectory.The results obtained by the FFS method are used as an initial guess in the Gauss Pseudospectral Method(GPM)solver to verify the applicability of the results.Compared with the GPM method,the FFS method needs very little computing time to obtain the results with very little difference in performance index.To verify the effectiveness,the proposed method is tested and validated by a formation control testbed.Three satellite simulators in the testbed are used to simulate two-dimensional satellite formation reconfiguration.The simulation and experimental results show that the FFS method can rapidly generate trajectories and effectively reduce the risk of collision between satellites.This fast trajectory generation method has great significance for on-line,constantly satellite formation reconfiguration.展开更多
In this paper, we construct the real-valued periodic orthogonal wavelets. The method presented here is new. The decomposition and reconstruction formulas involve only 4 terms respectively. It demonstrates that the for...In this paper, we construct the real-valued periodic orthogonal wavelets. The method presented here is new. The decomposition and reconstruction formulas involve only 4 terms respectively. It demonstrates that the formulas are simpler than that in other kinds of periodic wavelets. Our wavelets are useful in applications since it is real valued. The relation between the periodic wavelets and the Fourier series is also discussed.展开更多
Purpose–With the development of economy,China’s OFDI constantly increase in recent year.Meanwhile,OFDI hasspillovereffectoneconomicdevelopmentandtechnologicaldevelopmentofhomecountry.Thus,accurateOFDI prediction is ...Purpose–With the development of economy,China’s OFDI constantly increase in recent year.Meanwhile,OFDI hasspillovereffectoneconomicdevelopmentandtechnologicaldevelopmentofhomecountry.Thus,accurateOFDI prediction is a prerequisite for the effective development of international investment strategies.The purpose of this paper is to predict China’s OFDI accurately using a novel multivariable grey prediction model with Fourier series.Design/methodology/approach–This paper applied a multivariable grey prediction model,GM(1,N),to forecast China’s OFDI.In order to improve the prediction accuracy and without changing local characteristics of grey model prediction,this paper proposed a novel grey prediction model to improve the performance of the traditionalGM(1,N)modelbycombiningwithresidualmodificationmodelusingGM(1,1)modelandFourierseries.Findings–The coefficients indicate that the export and GDP have positive influence on China’s OFDI,and,according to the prediction result,China’s OFDI shows a growing trend in next five years.Originality/value–This paper proposed an effective multivariable grey prediction model that combined the traditionalGM(1,N)modelwitharesidualmodificationmodelinordertopredictChina’sOFDI.Accurateforecasting of OFDI provides reference for the Chinese Government to implement international investment strategies.展开更多
In this paper, the hybrid function projective synchronization (HFPS) of different chaotic systems with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters is carried out by Fourier series expansion and adaptive bounding te...In this paper, the hybrid function projective synchronization (HFPS) of different chaotic systems with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters is carried out by Fourier series expansion and adaptive bounding technique. Fourier series expansion is used to deal with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters. Adaptive bounding technique is used to compensate the bound of truncation errors. Using the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive control law and six parameter updating laws are constructed to make the states of two different chaotic systems asymptotically synchronized. The control strategy does not need to know the parameters thoroughly if the time-varying parameters are periodical functions. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, the HFPS between Lorenz system and Chen system is completed successfully by using this scheme.展开更多
We continue our study on arithmetical Fourier series by considering two Fourier series which are related to Diophantine analysis. The first one was studied by Hardy and Littlewood in connection with the classification...We continue our study on arithmetical Fourier series by considering two Fourier series which are related to Diophantine analysis. The first one was studied by Hardy and Littlewood in connection with the classification of numbers and the second one was studied by Hartman and Wintner by Lebesgue integration theory.展开更多
The paper introduces a new method for finding optimal control of algebraic dynamic systems. The structure of algebraic dynamical systems is nonlinear with quadratic and bilinear terms. A new hybrid extended Fourier se...The paper introduces a new method for finding optimal control of algebraic dynamic systems. The structure of algebraic dynamical systems is nonlinear with quadratic and bilinear terms. A new hybrid extended Fourier series is introduced, and state and control variables of the system are expanded by this series. Moreover, properties of new series are presented, and integration and product operational matrices are obtained. Using operational matrices, optimal control of the systems is converted to a set of simultaneous nonlinear algebraic relations. An illustrative example is included to compare our results with those in the literature.展开更多
Let E be a compact s-sets of R n.The authors define an orthonormal systemΦof functions on E and obtain that,for any f(x)∈L 1(E,H s),the Fourier series of f,with respect toΦ,is equal to f(x)at H s a.e.x∈E.Moreover,...Let E be a compact s-sets of R n.The authors define an orthonormal systemΦof functions on E and obtain that,for any f(x)∈L 1(E,H s),the Fourier series of f,with respect toΦ,is equal to f(x)at H s a.e.x∈E.Moreover,for any f∈L p(E,H s)(p≥1),the partial sums of the Fourier series,with respect toΦ,of f converges to f in L p norm.展开更多
The perishable nature of tourism products and services makes forecasting an important tool for tourism planning,especially in the current COVID-19 pandemic time.The forecast assists tourism organizations in decision-m...The perishable nature of tourism products and services makes forecasting an important tool for tourism planning,especially in the current COVID-19 pandemic time.The forecast assists tourism organizations in decision-making regarding resource allocations to avoid shortcomings.This study is motivated by the need to model periodic time series with linear and nonlinear trends.A hybrid Polynomial-Fourier series model that uses the combination of polynomial and Fourier fittings to capture and forecast time series data was proposed.The proposed model is applied to monthly foreign visitors to Turkey from January 2014 to August 2020 dataset and diagnostic checks show that the proposed model produces a statistically good fit.To improve the model forecast,a Monte Carlo simulation scheme with 100 simulation paths is applied to the model residue.The mean of the 100 simulation paths within±2σbounds from the model curve was taken and found to give statistically acceptable results.展开更多
文摘This paper covers the concept of Fourier series and its application for a periodic signal. A periodic signal is a signal that repeats its pattern over time at regular intervals. The idea inspiring is to approximate a regular periodic signal, under Dirichlet conditions, via a linear superposition of trigonometric functions, thus Fourier polynomials are constructed. The Dirichlet conditions, are a set of mathematical conditions, providing a foundational framework for the validity of the Fourier series representation. By understanding and applying these conditions, we can accurately represent and process periodic signals, leading to advancements in various areas of signal processing. The resulting Fourier approximation allows complex periodic signals to be expressed as a sum of simpler sinusoidal functions, making it easier to analyze and manipulate such signals.
文摘The current paper considers the problem of recovering a function using a limited number of its Fourier coefficients. Specifically, a method based on Bernoulli-like polynomials suggested and developed by Krylov, Lanczos, Gottlieb and Eckhoff is examined. Asymptotic behavior of approximate calculation of the so-called "jumps" is studied and asymptotic L2 constants of the rate of convergence of the method are computed.
基金The NSF (60773098,60673021) of Chinathe Natural Science Youth Foundation(20060107) of Northeast Normal University
文摘A new Rogosinski-type kernel function is constructed using kernel function of partial sums Sn(f; t) of generalized Fourier series on a parallel hexagon domain Ω associating with threedirection partition. We prove that an operator Wn(f; t) with the new kernel function converges uniformly to any continuous function f(t) ∈ Cn(Ω) (the space of all continuous functions with period Ω) on Ω. Moreover, the convergence order of the operator is presented for the smooth approached function.
文摘The key objective of this paper is to improve the approximation of a sufficiently smooth nonperiodic function defined on a compact interval by proposing alternative forms of Fourier series expansions. Unlike in classical Fourier series, the expansion coefficients herein are explicitly dependent not only on the function itself, but also on its derivatives at the ends of the interval. Each of these series expansions can be made to converge faster at a desired polynomial rate. These results have useful implications to Fourier or harmonic analysis, solutions to differential equations and boundary value problems, data compression, and so on.
基金founded by the Key Joint Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and Heilongjiang Province for Regional Development(No.U20A2082)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41971151)Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(No.TD2019D002)。
文摘Permafrost,being an important component of the cryosphere,is sensitive to climate change.Therefore,it is necessary to investigate the change of temperature within permafrost.In this study,we proposed a Fourier series model derived from the conduction equation to simulate permafrost thermal behavior over a year.The boundary condition was represented by the Fourier series and the geothermal gradient.The initial condition was represented as a linear function relative to the geothermal gradient.A comparative study of the different models(sinusoidal model,Fourier series model,and the proposed model)was conducted.Data collected from the northern Da Xing’anling Mountains,Northeast China,were applied for parameterization and validation for these models.These models were compared with daily mean ground temperature from the shallow permafrost layer and annual mean ground temperature from the bottom permafrost layer,respectively.Model performance was assessed using three coefficients of accuracy,i.e.,the mean bias error,the root mean square error,and the coefficient of determination.The comparison results showed that the proposed model was accurate enough to simulate temperature variation in both the shallow and bottom permafrost layer as compared with the other two Fourier series models(sinusoidal model and Fourier model).The proposed model expanded on a previous Fourier series model for which the initial and bottom boundary conditions were restricted to being constant.
基金supported by Balikesir University. Grant Number: 2014/49
文摘Let f be an H-periodic HOlder continuous function of two real variables.The error ||f-Nn (p;f)|| is estimated in the uniform norm and in the Holder norm,where p=(pk)k=0∞is a nonincreasing sequence of positive numbers and Nn (p;f) is thenth Norlund mean of hexagonal Fourier series of f with respect to p = (pk)k∞=0.
文摘In this paper we consider the approximation for functions in some subspaces of L^2 by spherical means of their Fourier integrals and Fourier series on set of full measure. Two main theorems are obtained.
文摘In this paper we prove that if f ∈ C ([-π, π]^2) and the function f is bounded partial p-variation for some p ∈[1, +∞), then the double trigonometric Fourier series of a function f is uniformly (C;-α,-β) summable (α+β 〈 1/p,α,β 〉 0) in the sense of Pringsheim. If α + β ≥ 1/p, then there exists a continuous function f0 of bounded partial p-variation on [-π,π]^2 such that the Cesàro (C;-α,-β) means σn,m^-α,-β(f0;0,0) of the double trigonometric Fourier series of f0 diverge over cubes.
基金supported by the Ningbo Youth Foundation(0 2 J0 1 0 2 - 2 1 )
文摘The concept of convex type function is introduced in this paper,from which a kin d of convex decomposition approach is proposed.As one of applications of this a pproach,the approximation of the convex type function by the partial sum of its Fourier series is inves tigated.Moreover,the order of approximation is describe d with the 2th continuous modulus.
基金Project supported by the Major Basic Project of China (No.Gl9990328) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60173021)
文摘This paper finds a way to extend the well-known Fourier methods, to so-called n+1 directions partition domains in n-dimension. In particular, in 2-D and 3-D cases, we study Fourier methods over 3-direction parallel hexagon partitions and 4-direction parallel parallelogram dodecahedron partitions, respectively. It has pointed that, the most concepts and results of Fourier methods on tensor-product case, such as periodicity,orthogonality of Fourier basis system, partial sum of Fourier series and its approximation behavior, can be moved on the new non tensor-product partition case.
基金This study was partly supported by the National Basic Research of China:Project G1998040907.
文摘Fourier series analysis is proposed as a new technique to address the problem of“sub-pixel motion”in deriving cloud motion winds(CMW)from high temporal resolution images.Based on a concept different from that of maximum correlation matching technique,the Fourier technique computes phase speed as an estimate of cloud motion.It is very effective for tracking small cellular clouds in 1-min interval images and more efficient for computation than the maximum correlation technique because only two templates in same size are involved in primary tracking procedure. Moreover it obtains not only CMW vectors but potentially also velocity spectrum and variance.A practical example is given to show the cloud motion winds from 1-min interval images with the Fourier method versus those from traditional 30-min interval images with maximum correlation technique.Problems that require further investigation before the Fourier technique can be regarded as a viable technique,especially for cloud tracking with high temporal resolution images,are also revealed.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11702072 and 11672093)。
文摘The process of formation reconfiguration for close-range satellite formation should take into account the risk of collisions between satellites.To this end,this paper presents a method to rapidly generate low-thrust collision-avoidance trajectories in the formation reconfiguration using Finite Fourier Series(FFS).The FFS method can rapidly generate the collision-avoidance threedimensional trajectory.The results obtained by the FFS method are used as an initial guess in the Gauss Pseudospectral Method(GPM)solver to verify the applicability of the results.Compared with the GPM method,the FFS method needs very little computing time to obtain the results with very little difference in performance index.To verify the effectiveness,the proposed method is tested and validated by a formation control testbed.Three satellite simulators in the testbed are used to simulate two-dimensional satellite formation reconfiguration.The simulation and experimental results show that the FFS method can rapidly generate trajectories and effectively reduce the risk of collision between satellites.This fast trajectory generation method has great significance for on-line,constantly satellite formation reconfiguration.
文摘In this paper, we construct the real-valued periodic orthogonal wavelets. The method presented here is new. The decomposition and reconstruction formulas involve only 4 terms respectively. It demonstrates that the formulas are simpler than that in other kinds of periodic wavelets. Our wavelets are useful in applications since it is real valued. The relation between the periodic wavelets and the Fourier series is also discussed.
文摘Purpose–With the development of economy,China’s OFDI constantly increase in recent year.Meanwhile,OFDI hasspillovereffectoneconomicdevelopmentandtechnologicaldevelopmentofhomecountry.Thus,accurateOFDI prediction is a prerequisite for the effective development of international investment strategies.The purpose of this paper is to predict China’s OFDI accurately using a novel multivariable grey prediction model with Fourier series.Design/methodology/approach–This paper applied a multivariable grey prediction model,GM(1,N),to forecast China’s OFDI.In order to improve the prediction accuracy and without changing local characteristics of grey model prediction,this paper proposed a novel grey prediction model to improve the performance of the traditionalGM(1,N)modelbycombiningwithresidualmodificationmodelusingGM(1,1)modelandFourierseries.Findings–The coefficients indicate that the export and GDP have positive influence on China’s OFDI,and,according to the prediction result,China’s OFDI shows a growing trend in next five years.Originality/value–This paper proposed an effective multivariable grey prediction model that combined the traditionalGM(1,N)modelwitharesidualmodificationmodelinordertopredictChina’sOFDI.Accurateforecasting of OFDI provides reference for the Chinese Government to implement international investment strategies.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60974139)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.72103676)
文摘In this paper, the hybrid function projective synchronization (HFPS) of different chaotic systems with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters is carried out by Fourier series expansion and adaptive bounding technique. Fourier series expansion is used to deal with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters. Adaptive bounding technique is used to compensate the bound of truncation errors. Using the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive control law and six parameter updating laws are constructed to make the states of two different chaotic systems asymptotically synchronized. The control strategy does not need to know the parameters thoroughly if the time-varying parameters are periodical functions. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, the HFPS between Lorenz system and Chen system is completed successfully by using this scheme.
基金supported in part by NFSC Grant for Fundamental Research (No. 10671155)NSF of Shaanxi Province (No. SJ08A22) supported in part by NNSF of China (Grant No.10726051)
文摘We continue our study on arithmetical Fourier series by considering two Fourier series which are related to Diophantine analysis. The first one was studied by Hardy and Littlewood in connection with the classification of numbers and the second one was studied by Hartman and Wintner by Lebesgue integration theory.
文摘The paper introduces a new method for finding optimal control of algebraic dynamic systems. The structure of algebraic dynamical systems is nonlinear with quadratic and bilinear terms. A new hybrid extended Fourier series is introduced, and state and control variables of the system are expanded by this series. Moreover, properties of new series are presented, and integration and product operational matrices are obtained. Using operational matrices, optimal control of the systems is converted to a set of simultaneous nonlinear algebraic relations. An illustrative example is included to compare our results with those in the literature.
文摘Let E be a compact s-sets of R n.The authors define an orthonormal systemΦof functions on E and obtain that,for any f(x)∈L 1(E,H s),the Fourier series of f,with respect toΦ,is equal to f(x)at H s a.e.x∈E.Moreover,for any f∈L p(E,H s)(p≥1),the partial sums of the Fourier series,with respect toΦ,of f converges to f in L p norm.
文摘The perishable nature of tourism products and services makes forecasting an important tool for tourism planning,especially in the current COVID-19 pandemic time.The forecast assists tourism organizations in decision-making regarding resource allocations to avoid shortcomings.This study is motivated by the need to model periodic time series with linear and nonlinear trends.A hybrid Polynomial-Fourier series model that uses the combination of polynomial and Fourier fittings to capture and forecast time series data was proposed.The proposed model is applied to monthly foreign visitors to Turkey from January 2014 to August 2020 dataset and diagnostic checks show that the proposed model produces a statistically good fit.To improve the model forecast,a Monte Carlo simulation scheme with 100 simulation paths is applied to the model residue.The mean of the 100 simulation paths within±2σbounds from the model curve was taken and found to give statistically acceptable results.