With the significant increase of the number of entry mails in China, mail inspection has become more and more challenge. Australia and New Zealand are the two countries recognized as the ones with the most stringent i...With the significant increase of the number of entry mails in China, mail inspection has become more and more challenge. Australia and New Zealand are the two countries recognized as the ones with the most stringent inspection and quarantine measures in the world. The mail inspection work in China, Australia and New Zealand was compared on the aspects of mail quarantine system, inspection, quarantine treatment and punishment, based on which something worth learning and referring could be found and some suggestions were put forward, with the aim to provide theoretical basis for the animal and plant quarantine of entry mails.展开更多
Novel zoonosis COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan,China,but rapidly spread to the other regions in China.The spread of this severe acute respiratory syndrome led to the quarantine of 60 million Chinese citizens.Such isol...Novel zoonosis COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan,China,but rapidly spread to the other regions in China.The spread of this severe acute respiratory syndrome led to the quarantine of 60 million Chinese citizens.Such isolation measures have been associated with increased depression,stress and emotional disturbance.1-3 However,major traumatic events can amplify both positive and negative aspects of interpersonal relations,leading to competing narratives of both harm and enhancem ent.4 Quarantine can create family dependencies,threaten livelihoods and lead to the stigmatisation of those infected/b School closures and disruption of family care seriously disrupt regular domestic practices.展开更多
A systematic general survey of quarantine objects (diseases and pests)of main tree species of various forest types in Heilongjiang Province was carried out during 1988-1989 by the forestry Department of Heilongjiang P...A systematic general survey of quarantine objects (diseases and pests)of main tree species of various forest types in Heilongjiang Province was carried out during 1988-1989 by the forestry Department of Heilongjiang Province. By which the species, distribution and damage of quarantine diseases and pests have been broght to light, the epidemic regions and protecting regions have been divided. The scienific basis for the controlling of the quarantine objectS spreading and the protecting of forest resources has been provided by this work.展开更多
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak began in China at the end of 2019.The disease is highly infectious.In order to prevent and control the epidemic situation,the state has issued a series of meas...BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak began in China at the end of 2019.The disease is highly infectious.In order to prevent and control the epidemic situation,the state has issued a series of measures to guide the prevention and control of the epidemic.At the same time,it also introduced the measure of home isolation for children with fever.However,due to the nature of children,the implementation of the home isolation turned out to be quite difficult,and questions regarding the home isolation were brought out by parents when seeing doctors.For this reason,we decided to conduct this study.AIM To study factors that influence home quarantine compliance in children with fever during the COVID-19 epidemic.METHODS A total of 495 paediatric patients with respiratory tract infection and fever were selected from the general fever clinic at Xiamen Children’s Hospital from February 6-27,2020.On day 8 after the hospital visit,follow-up was conducted by telephone to evaluate the compliance of home quarantine.RESULTS Among the ten quarantine measures,the proportion of families adhering to keeping 1.5 m distance,proper hand hygiene,wearing masks at home,and proper cough etiquette was very low(<30%for each measure).Our analysis showed that compliance was related to gender and age of children,gender and age of primary caregiver,number of children in the family,and intensity of information on quarantine measures.We observed that compliance increased with the age ofchildren.Compared with children whose caregivers were young adults,children with elderly caregivers were 2.461 times more likely to show poor compliance.Furthermore,children who received intensive information on quarantine measures had significantly better compliance.CONCLUSION Compliance of children with fever to quarantine measures at home is low during the COVID-19 epidemic.Strengthening education on the quarantine measures is critical to improve compliance,in particular in young children with elderly caregivers.展开更多
Macao,a special administrative region(SAR)of the People’s Republic of China,is located in southern China and shares the border with China's Mainland.It is the most densely populated region in the world,with a pop...Macao,a special administrative region(SAR)of the People’s Republic of China,is located in southern China and shares the border with China's Mainland.It is the most densely populated region in the world,with a population of 667400 and a total land area of 32.9 square kilometers in 2019.Since the first case diagnosed on January 22,2020,there was a total of 45 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in Macao,of which 43 patients(96%)were imported cases.To date,all patients had been discharged successfully from Centro Hospitalar Conde de São Januário,a designated hospital to manage all COVID-19 patients in Macao.Eventually,no patient died,and no local community outbreak was noted.This opinion review describes the underlying factors that could have contributed to the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,which include the following:(1)Early implementation of containment measures;(2)Large-scale quarantine using hotel rooms to reduce the risk of a local outbreak;and(3)Multidisciplinary co-operation and transparency of information to the public.Although the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,may not be generalized to other regions,it should not be unreasonable to be well prepared with sufficient logistic support to conduct timely containment and early detection of episodic cases to prevent the backsliding of COVID-19 outbreak.展开更多
This paper describes the importance of plant quarantine to the food safety in China through cases where plant quarantine helps to effectively intercept harmful organisms for food safety and promote export and import t...This paper describes the importance of plant quarantine to the food safety in China through cases where plant quarantine helps to effectively intercept harmful organisms for food safety and promote export and import trading.It also presents the existing problems in plant quarantine work and appropriate measures.展开更多
Phytophthora is genus of plant-damaging Oomycetes, whose member species are capable of causing enormous economic losses on crops worldwide. In the present study, four candidate genes ITS, CO1, EF-1α and β-tubulin we...Phytophthora is genus of plant-damaging Oomycetes, whose member species are capable of causing enormous economic losses on crops worldwide. In the present study, four candidate genes ITS, CO1, EF-1α and β-tubulin were tested using 123 strains of 80 species of Phytophthora to investigate the feasibility of ser- ving as DNA barcoding markers. The results showed that among the four candidate genes, ITS and CO1 had the highest success rate of PCR amplification and se- quencing, up to 100% and 96.7%. There were obvious barcode gaps in ITS, CO1 andβ-tubulin, but their frequency distributions of intra- and interspecific genetic distances were slightly overlapped. Wilcoxon rank sum test on intraspecific genetic distances of the four genes showed ITS = CO1 = β - tubulin = EF-1α indicating they bad the same effect on intraspecific discrimination, while the test on interspecific genetic distances of the four genes showed ITS 〉 C01 〉 β- tubulin 〉 EF - 1α. In summary, ITS and COl should be used in combination as the primary barcodes, β-tubulin as the complementary barcede for the identification of 11 quaran- tine Phytophthora species.展开更多
The Aquatic Quarantine Facility (AQF) for Litopenaeus vannamei established under the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture is located on the eastern coastal region of Chenna...The Aquatic Quarantine Facility (AQF) for Litopenaeus vannamei established under the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture is located on the eastern coastal region of Chennai in Tamil Nadu, India. The facility is an approved quarantine premise for the SPF vannamei broodstock imported across India and is probably the only one of its kind to be established in Southeast Asia. The centre is managed and operated by Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Aquaculture (RGCA), a technical extension of the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA), Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India. The quarantine facility functions on the basis of strict biosecurity protocol and as per the guidelines stipulated in Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) framed by a team of experts. The facility ensures specific pathogen free status of the SPF L. vannamei broodstock imported to India, thus playing key role in restricting the entry of diseases to the Country. This article presents the SPF certification process of the imported L. vannamei carried out at the facility.展开更多
By making use of the technical advantages of Guangzhou Huibiao Testing Technology Center in the field of testing, the project analyzes the characteristics of undergraduate professional education in aquatic animal medi...By making use of the technical advantages of Guangzhou Huibiao Testing Technology Center in the field of testing, the project analyzes the characteristics of undergraduate professional education in aquatic animal medicine, and intends to build a case library of Inspection and Quarantine of Aquatic Animal suitable for modern undergraduate teaching needs, with training applied talents to meet the requirements of the times as the goal, and strengthening the reform of college education mode and improving the quantity and quality of talent training as the guiding ideology.展开更多
The quantity of the imported parcels in China has increased rapidly,becoming an important means for criminals to hide the prohibited animal and plant quarantine objects.The x-ray applied to the port of post inspection...The quantity of the imported parcels in China has increased rapidly,becoming an important means for criminals to hide the prohibited animal and plant quarantine objects.The x-ray applied to the port of post inspection can speed up inspection and better protect the ecological safety of China by mastering its method of judging animal and plant quarantine objects.展开更多
The inspection and quarantine standard is one of important basics to executeinspection and quarantine by laws. In recent years, with the development of economy and trade inChina, standardization has played an importan...The inspection and quarantine standard is one of important basics to executeinspection and quarantine by laws. In recent years, with the development of economy and trade inChina, standardization has played an important role in inspection and quarantine. During 2002-2004,department of Standards of Inspection and Quarantine, Certification and Accreditation Administrationof China has organized the research of the standards of inspection and quarantine, and has builtstandard sub- systems of nine fields in inspection and quarantine.展开更多
Global health concerns about the health of the global population and the concepts of global health are gradually being accepted by all of the countries in the world.China health and quarantine at points of entry(POEs)...Global health concerns about the health of the global population and the concepts of global health are gradually being accepted by all of the countries in the world.China health and quarantine at points of entry(POEs) is an integral part of global health,and its duty of prevention and control of the communicable diseases in POEs is consistent with the duty of global health to promote the health of global population.Under the principle of "prevention first",health and quarantine organ carries out the work of disease prevention and control and international travel health care,the reinforcement of core capacity at POEs,and focuses on human rights protection.All the same,there are some gaps with the requirements of global health,such as the inadequate of health promotion planning capacity,ethics awareness and legal protection.The future work of health and quarantine should change ideas on communicable diseases prevention at POEs,focus more on ethical consideration,and should optimize system architecture and human resources,strengthen cooperation,maintain core capacity at POEs,thus to build points of entry public health system with Chinese characteristics,meanwhile to apply the concepts of global health deeply into every aspects of health and quarantine at POEs.展开更多
The State Council recently approved thenew structure to reform China’s inspection andquarantine sector.The separate units for entry-exit sanitary quarantine,animal and plantsquarantine and impOrt-export commodityinsp...The State Council recently approved thenew structure to reform China’s inspection andquarantine sector.The separate units for entry-exit sanitary quarantine,animal and plantsquarantine and impOrt-export commodityinspection will be uniformed into oneorganization.The reform will reduced theredundant inspection and charge,and increasethe efficiency for imports and exports.展开更多
The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China (AQSIQ) announced that as of September 1, 2007,shipping packages of export foods will be stamped with inspection and quarantine... The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China (AQSIQ) announced that as of September 1, 2007,shipping packages of export foods will be stamped with inspection and quarantine marks after the foods are inspected and quarantined in conformity with the entry-exit inspection and quarantine rules. Unstamped packages will be prohibited from export.……展开更多
Inspired by the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),an epidemic model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed,then a novel analysis approach is proposed for fi...Inspired by the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),an epidemic model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed,then a novel analysis approach is proposed for finding the ultimate lower bound of the number of infected individuals,which means that the epidemic is uniformly persistent if the control reproduction number R_(c)>1.This approach can be applied to the related biomat hem at ical models,and some existing works can be improved by using that.In addition,the infection-free equilibrium V^(0)of the model is locally asymptotically stable(LAS)if R_(c)<1 and linearly stable if R_(c)=1;while V^(0)is unstable if R_(c)>1.展开更多
The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas.Various actions,such as quarantine,vaccination,and hospitalization,hav...The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas.Various actions,such as quarantine,vaccination,and hospitalization,have been implemented by worldwide governments.Given the relatively high cost and strict implementation of vaccination,our focus lies on quarantine and hospitalization.In this paper,we study the monkeypox epidemic involving quarantine and hospitalization through fractionalorder mathematical modeling.The proposed model considers six classes of human populations(susceptible,exposed,infected,quarantined,hospitalized,and recovered)and three classes of nonhuman populations(susceptible,exposed,and infected).The basic properties of the model have been investigated,and its equilibrium points have been obtained,namely monkeypox-free,nonhuman-free endemic,and endemic.We have derived the basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human and nonhuman-tononhuman transmissions,denoted as R0h and R0n respectively.The existence and stability(both locally and globally)of each equilibrium point depend on R0h and R0n relative to unity.We performed calibration and forecasting of the model on the weekly monkeypox case data of the human population in the United States of America from June 1 to September 23,2022.Research findings indicate that the fractional-order model shows better calibration and forecasting compared to the corresponding firstorder model based on the root mean square error.Furthermore,the best-fitting model calibration indicates R0=maxfR0h;R0ng>1,suggesting the potential for endemic conditions in humans.However,the best forecasting shows R0<1,possibly due to various policies such as vaccination.Given the relative cost and stringency of vaccination implementation for monkeypox control,we perform numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses on the basic reproduction number,particularly focusing on the impact of quarantine and hospitalization rates.Simulations and sensitivity analysis indicate that simultaneous increases in quarantine and hospitalization rates can reduce the basic reproduction number R0h below unity.Consequently,the monkeypox epidemic can be eradicated.Moreover,fractional-order derivative plays a crucial role in determining the spikes of monkeypox cases and the rapidity at which the disease undergoes either endemicity or extinction.Considerations of memory effects,quarantine,and hospitalization have a significant impact on monkeypox modeling studies,especially in capturing biological phenomena.展开更多
文摘With the significant increase of the number of entry mails in China, mail inspection has become more and more challenge. Australia and New Zealand are the two countries recognized as the ones with the most stringent inspection and quarantine measures in the world. The mail inspection work in China, Australia and New Zealand was compared on the aspects of mail quarantine system, inspection, quarantine treatment and punishment, based on which something worth learning and referring could be found and some suggestions were put forward, with the aim to provide theoretical basis for the animal and plant quarantine of entry mails.
基金supported by an internal fund from the Research Authority in Ariel University(RA2000000106).
文摘Novel zoonosis COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan,China,but rapidly spread to the other regions in China.The spread of this severe acute respiratory syndrome led to the quarantine of 60 million Chinese citizens.Such isolation measures have been associated with increased depression,stress and emotional disturbance.1-3 However,major traumatic events can amplify both positive and negative aspects of interpersonal relations,leading to competing narratives of both harm and enhancem ent.4 Quarantine can create family dependencies,threaten livelihoods and lead to the stigmatisation of those infected/b School closures and disruption of family care seriously disrupt regular domestic practices.
文摘A systematic general survey of quarantine objects (diseases and pests)of main tree species of various forest types in Heilongjiang Province was carried out during 1988-1989 by the forestry Department of Heilongjiang Province. By which the species, distribution and damage of quarantine diseases and pests have been broght to light, the epidemic regions and protecting regions have been divided. The scienific basis for the controlling of the quarantine objectS spreading and the protecting of forest resources has been provided by this work.
基金Supported by Xiamen Children’s Hospital Backbone Talent Training Program Project,No.CHP-2019-BT-003。
文摘BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak began in China at the end of 2019.The disease is highly infectious.In order to prevent and control the epidemic situation,the state has issued a series of measures to guide the prevention and control of the epidemic.At the same time,it also introduced the measure of home isolation for children with fever.However,due to the nature of children,the implementation of the home isolation turned out to be quite difficult,and questions regarding the home isolation were brought out by parents when seeing doctors.For this reason,we decided to conduct this study.AIM To study factors that influence home quarantine compliance in children with fever during the COVID-19 epidemic.METHODS A total of 495 paediatric patients with respiratory tract infection and fever were selected from the general fever clinic at Xiamen Children’s Hospital from February 6-27,2020.On day 8 after the hospital visit,follow-up was conducted by telephone to evaluate the compliance of home quarantine.RESULTS Among the ten quarantine measures,the proportion of families adhering to keeping 1.5 m distance,proper hand hygiene,wearing masks at home,and proper cough etiquette was very low(<30%for each measure).Our analysis showed that compliance was related to gender and age of children,gender and age of primary caregiver,number of children in the family,and intensity of information on quarantine measures.We observed that compliance increased with the age ofchildren.Compared with children whose caregivers were young adults,children with elderly caregivers were 2.461 times more likely to show poor compliance.Furthermore,children who received intensive information on quarantine measures had significantly better compliance.CONCLUSION Compliance of children with fever to quarantine measures at home is low during the COVID-19 epidemic.Strengthening education on the quarantine measures is critical to improve compliance,in particular in young children with elderly caregivers.
文摘Macao,a special administrative region(SAR)of the People’s Republic of China,is located in southern China and shares the border with China's Mainland.It is the most densely populated region in the world,with a population of 667400 and a total land area of 32.9 square kilometers in 2019.Since the first case diagnosed on January 22,2020,there was a total of 45 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in Macao,of which 43 patients(96%)were imported cases.To date,all patients had been discharged successfully from Centro Hospitalar Conde de São Januário,a designated hospital to manage all COVID-19 patients in Macao.Eventually,no patient died,and no local community outbreak was noted.This opinion review describes the underlying factors that could have contributed to the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,which include the following:(1)Early implementation of containment measures;(2)Large-scale quarantine using hotel rooms to reduce the risk of a local outbreak;and(3)Multidisciplinary co-operation and transparency of information to the public.Although the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,may not be generalized to other regions,it should not be unreasonable to be well prepared with sufficient logistic support to conduct timely containment and early detection of episodic cases to prevent the backsliding of COVID-19 outbreak.
文摘This paper describes the importance of plant quarantine to the food safety in China through cases where plant quarantine helps to effectively intercept harmful organisms for food safety and promote export and import trading.It also presents the existing problems in plant quarantine work and appropriate measures.
基金Supported by Science and Technology Plan Project of Shenzhen Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau(SZ2015101)National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China during the 12~(th)Five-Year Plan Period(2012BAK11B06)Science and Technology Plan Project of General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of People's Republic of China(2016IK239)
文摘Phytophthora is genus of plant-damaging Oomycetes, whose member species are capable of causing enormous economic losses on crops worldwide. In the present study, four candidate genes ITS, CO1, EF-1α and β-tubulin were tested using 123 strains of 80 species of Phytophthora to investigate the feasibility of ser- ving as DNA barcoding markers. The results showed that among the four candidate genes, ITS and CO1 had the highest success rate of PCR amplification and se- quencing, up to 100% and 96.7%. There were obvious barcode gaps in ITS, CO1 andβ-tubulin, but their frequency distributions of intra- and interspecific genetic distances were slightly overlapped. Wilcoxon rank sum test on intraspecific genetic distances of the four genes showed ITS = CO1 = β - tubulin = EF-1α indicating they bad the same effect on intraspecific discrimination, while the test on interspecific genetic distances of the four genes showed ITS 〉 C01 〉 β- tubulin 〉 EF - 1α. In summary, ITS and COl should be used in combination as the primary barcodes, β-tubulin as the complementary barcede for the identification of 11 quaran- tine Phytophthora species.
文摘The Aquatic Quarantine Facility (AQF) for Litopenaeus vannamei established under the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture is located on the eastern coastal region of Chennai in Tamil Nadu, India. The facility is an approved quarantine premise for the SPF vannamei broodstock imported across India and is probably the only one of its kind to be established in Southeast Asia. The centre is managed and operated by Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Aquaculture (RGCA), a technical extension of the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA), Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India. The quarantine facility functions on the basis of strict biosecurity protocol and as per the guidelines stipulated in Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) framed by a team of experts. The facility ensures specific pathogen free status of the SPF L. vannamei broodstock imported to India, thus playing key role in restricting the entry of diseases to the Country. This article presents the SPF certification process of the imported L. vannamei carried out at the facility.
基金Supported by Reform Project of Teaching Content and Curriculum System of Industry-University-Research Cooperation of the Ministry of Education(202101134003)Applied Talents Training Course of Guangdong Ocean University (EAGOU [2019]86)+1 种基金Degree and Postgraduate Education Reform Research Project of Guangdong Ocean University (202120)Postgraduate Education Innovation Project of Guangdong Province (YJYH [2022]1)。
文摘By making use of the technical advantages of Guangzhou Huibiao Testing Technology Center in the field of testing, the project analyzes the characteristics of undergraduate professional education in aquatic animal medicine, and intends to build a case library of Inspection and Quarantine of Aquatic Animal suitable for modern undergraduate teaching needs, with training applied talents to meet the requirements of the times as the goal, and strengthening the reform of college education mode and improving the quantity and quality of talent training as the guiding ideology.
基金National key research and development projects(2018YFC0809200).
文摘The quantity of the imported parcels in China has increased rapidly,becoming an important means for criminals to hide the prohibited animal and plant quarantine objects.The x-ray applied to the port of post inspection can speed up inspection and better protect the ecological safety of China by mastering its method of judging animal and plant quarantine objects.
文摘The inspection and quarantine standard is one of important basics to executeinspection and quarantine by laws. In recent years, with the development of economy and trade inChina, standardization has played an important role in inspection and quarantine. During 2002-2004,department of Standards of Inspection and Quarantine, Certification and Accreditation Administrationof China has organized the research of the standards of inspection and quarantine, and has builtstandard sub- systems of nine fields in inspection and quarantine.
文摘Global health concerns about the health of the global population and the concepts of global health are gradually being accepted by all of the countries in the world.China health and quarantine at points of entry(POEs) is an integral part of global health,and its duty of prevention and control of the communicable diseases in POEs is consistent with the duty of global health to promote the health of global population.Under the principle of "prevention first",health and quarantine organ carries out the work of disease prevention and control and international travel health care,the reinforcement of core capacity at POEs,and focuses on human rights protection.All the same,there are some gaps with the requirements of global health,such as the inadequate of health promotion planning capacity,ethics awareness and legal protection.The future work of health and quarantine should change ideas on communicable diseases prevention at POEs,focus more on ethical consideration,and should optimize system architecture and human resources,strengthen cooperation,maintain core capacity at POEs,thus to build points of entry public health system with Chinese characteristics,meanwhile to apply the concepts of global health deeply into every aspects of health and quarantine at POEs.
文摘The State Council recently approved thenew structure to reform China’s inspection andquarantine sector.The separate units for entry-exit sanitary quarantine,animal and plantsquarantine and impOrt-export commodityinspection will be uniformed into oneorganization.The reform will reduced theredundant inspection and charge,and increasethe efficiency for imports and exports.
文摘 The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China (AQSIQ) announced that as of September 1, 2007,shipping packages of export foods will be stamped with inspection and quarantine marks after the foods are inspected and quarantined in conformity with the entry-exit inspection and quarantine rules. Unstamped packages will be prohibited from export.……
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11901027,11971273and 12126426)the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12090014)+4 种基金the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12031020)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2018MA004)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2021M703426)the Pyramid Talent Training Project of BUCEA(No.JDYC20200327)the BUCEA Post Graduate Innovation Project(No.PG2022143)。
文摘Inspired by the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),an epidemic model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed,then a novel analysis approach is proposed for finding the ultimate lower bound of the number of infected individuals,which means that the epidemic is uniformly persistent if the control reproduction number R_(c)>1.This approach can be applied to the related biomat hem at ical models,and some existing works can be improved by using that.In addition,the infection-free equilibrium V^(0)of the model is locally asymptotically stable(LAS)if R_(c)<1 and linearly stable if R_(c)=1;while V^(0)is unstable if R_(c)>1.
基金funded by Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science(FMIPA)through Public Funds DPA(Dokumen Pelaksanaan Anggaran)PTNBH(Perguruan Tinggi Negeri Berbadan Hukum)University of Brawijaya and based on FMIPA Professor Grant,with contract number:4158.15/UN10.
文摘The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas.Various actions,such as quarantine,vaccination,and hospitalization,have been implemented by worldwide governments.Given the relatively high cost and strict implementation of vaccination,our focus lies on quarantine and hospitalization.In this paper,we study the monkeypox epidemic involving quarantine and hospitalization through fractionalorder mathematical modeling.The proposed model considers six classes of human populations(susceptible,exposed,infected,quarantined,hospitalized,and recovered)and three classes of nonhuman populations(susceptible,exposed,and infected).The basic properties of the model have been investigated,and its equilibrium points have been obtained,namely monkeypox-free,nonhuman-free endemic,and endemic.We have derived the basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human and nonhuman-tononhuman transmissions,denoted as R0h and R0n respectively.The existence and stability(both locally and globally)of each equilibrium point depend on R0h and R0n relative to unity.We performed calibration and forecasting of the model on the weekly monkeypox case data of the human population in the United States of America from June 1 to September 23,2022.Research findings indicate that the fractional-order model shows better calibration and forecasting compared to the corresponding firstorder model based on the root mean square error.Furthermore,the best-fitting model calibration indicates R0=maxfR0h;R0ng>1,suggesting the potential for endemic conditions in humans.However,the best forecasting shows R0<1,possibly due to various policies such as vaccination.Given the relative cost and stringency of vaccination implementation for monkeypox control,we perform numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses on the basic reproduction number,particularly focusing on the impact of quarantine and hospitalization rates.Simulations and sensitivity analysis indicate that simultaneous increases in quarantine and hospitalization rates can reduce the basic reproduction number R0h below unity.Consequently,the monkeypox epidemic can be eradicated.Moreover,fractional-order derivative plays a crucial role in determining the spikes of monkeypox cases and the rapidity at which the disease undergoes either endemicity or extinction.Considerations of memory effects,quarantine,and hospitalization have a significant impact on monkeypox modeling studies,especially in capturing biological phenomena.