NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS OF THE IMPACTS OF LOCAL LAND-SEA THERMODYNAMIC CONTRASTS ON THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

The important effects of local land-sea thermodynamic contrast between the South China Sea (SCS) and Indochina Peninsula on SCS summer monsoon onset are preliminarily studied by using two sets of SSTA tests and two ideal tests in s-p regional climate model. The result shows that warm SST in the SCS in winter and spring is favorable for the formation of monsoon circulation throughout all levels of the atmosphere over the sea, which hastens the onset of SCS summer monsoon. The effects of cold SST are generally the opposite. The local land-sea contrast in the SCS is one of the possible reasons for SCS summer monsoon onset. Superposed upon large-scale land-sea thermodynamic differences, it facilitates the formation of out-breaking onset characteristics of SCS summer monsoon in the SCS area.

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN AUTUMN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE MODE AND THE STRENGTH OF SCS SUMMER MONSOON

Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IODM） and the strength of South China Sea （SCS） Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. （1） There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode （USBM） and Indian Ocean dipole mode （IODM）, respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing deeadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. （2） When positive （negative） IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak （strong）. The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. （3） When the SCS summer monsoon is strong （weak）, the IODM will be in its positive （negative） phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases.

OBSERVATIONAL STUDY OF AIR-SEA FLUXES DURING THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON IN 2000——FEATURES OF THERMAL BUDGET AT THE SEA SURFACE

This paper is devoted to the features of sea-surface heat budget during the active/break phases of the 2000 summer monsoon in the South-China Sea (SCS) by means of the observed air-sea heat fluxes and data from Xisha Weather Station and NCEP/NCAR in the same period.Results suggest that the primary factors affecting sea-surface thermal budget are solar shortwave penetrating radiation and latent heat flux.Regardless of their changes,however,the thermal gain is reduced or becomes net loss at the active stage and the thermal gain gets gradually increased in the weakening and lull periods:during the first emergence of southwest monsoon the net loss happens thanks to the dramatic diminution of penetrating radiation resulting from increased cloudiness and intense precipitation:while at the re-emergence of the wind.reduced net sea-surface thermal gain is attributed to the sharp increase in latent heat flux resulting from intense evaporation:owing to great thermal inertia of water the SST change lags behind that of heat budget over the sea surface, and the lagging is responsible for regulating the budget by affecting latent heat fluxes,which,in turn.has effect upon the change of the SST,thereby forming short-term oscillations that are in association with the active/break phases of the monsoons.Part of the conclusions have been borne out by the observational study based on 1998 and 2002 data.

IMPACTS OF SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES IN THE KEY AREAS OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON INTENSITY

The impacts of the variations of surface heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding areas on the interannual variation of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon intensity is analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly sensible heat flux data from 1949 to 2000 and monthly mean wind and temperature field data from 1958 to 1997.The results show that there is a distinct interdecadal trend in sensible heat over the key areas of the TP and the SCS summer monsoon intensity as well as South Asia high intensity (SAHI),the transition occurs in late 1970s.The SCS summer monsoon intensity has a significant positive correlation with the variation of surface sensible heat fluxes over the northwestern part of the TP,while it has negative correlation with the surface sensible heat fluxes in the south of the TP.During the strong SCS summer monsoon year,the vertical ascending motion in the northwestern TP is strengthened,but in the southern TP it is weakened,and the position of the South Asian high is northward,while in the weak summer monsoon year,it is in the contrary.The SAHI is closely related to variation of surface heat fluxes over the TP and surrounding areas,and there exists a negative relationship between the SCS summer monsoon intensity and SAHI.

FEATURES OF VARIATION IN TOTAL,BAROTROPIC AND BAROCLINIC KINETIC ENERGY WITH THE MECHANISM EXPLORED AROUND THE 1998 SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

This paper concerns atmospheric kinetic energy variation related to the onset of summer monsoon in May,1998 over the SCS (South China Sea).Results show that around the onset, noticeable conversion occurs in atmospheric total,barotropic and baroclinic kinetic energy (KE) at 300-1000 hPa;three days before the onset,total and barotropic KE are already growing markedly and baroclinic KE increases simultaneously with the onset:the monsoon's onset is associated closely to the meridional propagation of barotropic and baroclinic KE in the SCS region and study of equations of barotropie/baroclinic KE indicates that the net production term is the dominant factor for the change of the two forms of KE,the term of fluxes plays a part in weakening the energies and the conversion term is responsible for transforming barotropic into baroclinic KE.

ABRUPT CHANGE IN ELEMENTS AROUND 1998 SCS SUMMER MONSOON ESTABLISHMENT WITH ANALYSIS OF ITS CHARACTERISTIC PROCESS

The latest dataset from the SCS(South China Sea)Monsoon Experiment is used to investigate the features of abrupt change in some meteorological elements before,during and after the summer monsoon's establishment in 1998 and explore its onset characteristic process.We have arrived at a preliminary conclusion that the 1998 Asian summer monsoon is established first in the SCS as early as May 23,which is representative of the earliest indicator of the conversion from a winter into a summer monsoon situation in Asia;the continued retreat eastward of the western Pacific subtropical high from the SCS region has direct effect on the SCS summer monsoon establishment because the withdrawal favors the release of unstable energy,responsible for the sudden onset of the monsoon.Our tentative investigation indicates that the eastward extension of the westerly and rainfall band from the equatorial Indian Ocean into the Indo-China Peninsula and the southward spreading of an active South-China stationary front,acting as the interaction between mid and low latitude systems,are likely to be the characteristic events contributing to the subtropical high's eastward retreating and the summer monsoon's onset over the SCS.

Strong/Weak Summer Monsoon Activity over the South China Sea and Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation

The circulation pattern corresponding to the strong / weak summer monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS) region and the associated characteristics of the abnormal rainfall in Eastern China have been studied by using the NECP reanalysis data and precipitation data in China. The results show that the climate variations in China caused by the strong / weak summer monsoon are completely different (even in opposite phase). The analyses of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) activity showed that the atmospheric ISO at 850 hPa near the SCS region is strong (weak) corresponding to the strong (weak) SCS summer monsoon. And the analyses of the circulation pattern of the atmospheric ISO showed that the strong / weak SCS summer monsoon circulation (200 hPa and 850 hPa) result mainly from abnormal atmospheric ISO. This study also reveals that the atmospheric ISO variability in the South China Sea region is usually at opposite phase with one in the Jiang-huai River basin. For example, strong (weak) atmospheric ISO in the SCS region corresponds to the weak (strong) atmospheric ISO in the Jiang-huai River basin. As to the intensity of atmospheric ISO, it is generally exhibits the local exciting characteristics, the longitudinal propagation is weak. Key words The SCS summer monsoon - Atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation - Circulation pattern This was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China (G1998040903) and State Key Project-SCSMEX.

The influence of 30~60 d oscillation on the development of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Using the National Center for Enviromental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR)reanalysis data and NOAA satellite-observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data, the development of theSouth China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and intraseasonal (30~60 d) oscillation (ISO) have been examined. Theresults show that there exists obvious interannual variability of intraseasonal oscillaiton. Using the 16 a time series offiltered OLR averaged over the SCS, an index is defined to define onset events over the SCS on the ISO time scales.Of the 16 a examined here, 10 shows a strong ISO signal in the onset of monsoon convection over the SCS. In thesecases, the ISO initially suppresses the seasonal development of southwesterly and cyclonic circulation over the SCSbefore the ISO onset. As the ISO propagates northeastward, the low frequency cyclonic circulation anomaly occursin the SCS and the low frequency southwesterly wind and convection over here dramatically intensify. The northeastprogression of the ISO anomaleis plays a role in the initial suppression and then acceleration of the seasonal cycle ofthe SCS summer monsoon.

THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON ON THE RAINSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALLING STRONG TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604)

Bilis (0604) is a strong tropical storm that sustained over land for a long time, bringing torrential rain. With conventional observation data, radar data and infrared satellite imagery, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are found to form and develop successively, which cause torrential rain. Then numerical simulation is conducted using MM5 to simulate a 66-h post-landfall process. The simulated distribution and intensity of precipitation match the observation well. With the simulated result, the characteristics and process of MCS development are analyzed with the finding that the convergence of the tropical depression and South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon over The south of China causes the formation of a mesoscale vortex, mesoscale convergence center and mesoscale convergence line, which are favorable to the development and sustaining of the MCSs. A sensitivity experiment indicates that the SCS summer monsoon transports unstable energy and water vapor continuously, which is of vital importance to rainstorms.

ANALYSIS OF LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998

With NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data and SST for 1998, the paper investigates the features of summer monsoon low-frequency oscillation (LFO) over the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that SCS summer monsoon onset is enhanced because of its LFO. Low-frequency (LF) low-level convergence (divergence) region of SCS is in the LF positive (negative) rainfall area. LFO of the SCS region migrates from south to north in the meridian and from west to east in zonal direction. LF divergence of SCS is vertically compensating to each other between high and low level.

CHARACTERISTICS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE POSSIBLE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS LATE OR EARLY ONSET

The characteristics of atmospheric heat source associated with the summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (SCS) are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. A criterion of the SCS summer monsoon onset is defined by the atmospheric heat source. Applying this criterion to the 15-year (1979 – 1993) mean field, the onset of the SCS summer monsoon is found to occur in the fourth pentad of May. And this criterion can also give reasonable results for the onset time of the SCS summer monsoon on a year-to-year basis. In addition, pretty high correlation has been found between the onset time of the SCS summer monsoon and the zonal mean vertically integrated heat source <Q1> at 40°S in April. The causes for the late or early onset of the SCS summer monsoon and the close relationship between the onset time and the zonal mean vertically integrated heat source <Q1> at 40 °S in April might be explained by the variations in intensity of the Hadley circulation.

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.

The link between interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and summer precipitation in Shandong Province

Relationship between the onset date of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Shandong Province was examined by comprehensive analysis to establish a conceptual model of the link. If the summer monsoon occurs earlier, the 500 hPa level would induce the teleconnection of Eurasian pat- tern in the summer (June-August), which indicates that the western Pacific subtropical high is displaced north- ward further than usual, the Siberian high is intensified and the Okhotsk low is deepened. Under such circum- stance, Shandong, located in the west side of the subtropical high and in front of the mid-Siberia high, would be expected to have a wet summer because it is quite possible for cold and warm air to meet and interact with each other in Shandong. Statistical analysis revealed that the 500 hPa anomalies over Korea and Japan were sensitive to the SCS monsoon onset date and very important to precipitation in Shandong, and that the convective activi- ties over the deep water basin in the SCS in 24–26 pentads significantly influenced the position of the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high. These findings yielded better understanding of the causative mechanisms involved in the precipitation generation, so that the knowledge gained can possibly be applied for long-lead forecast.

INFLUENCES OF ANOMALOUS SUMMER MONSOON OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON CLIMATE VARIATION

Using NCEP circulation data and precipitation data in China,the influences of strong/weak summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) on atmospheric circulation and climate anomalies are studied.Corresponding to the strong (weak) SCS summer monsoon,there are not only different summer precipitation patterns in eastern China,but also different atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.The anomaly of the SCS summer monsoon will excite the EPA teleconnection (wave-train) in the Northern Hemispheric atmosphere and lead to climate anomalies not only in East Asia but also in North America.It is still shown that there is interaction between the SSTA in the South China Sea and the SCS summer monsoon;but the influence of the SCS summer monsoon on SSTA in the South China Sea may be more fundamental.

A STUDY ON THE ONSET AND ITS ACTIVE AND BREAK PERIODS OF SUMMER MONSOON OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Based on ECMWF reanalysis data of 1979-1993 and TBB data of GMS,an analysis on the onset and its activities of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) is made.It is found that the mean onset date is around 16 May,the latest onset is at beginning of June.There is a marked interannual variation of the onset date.There occurs marked southwesterly wind over the SCS in the last dekad of April in some years,but it only persists for a short period,and then,the easterly flow appears again.In the beginning of June,the true onset occurs.From the end of April to the middle of May prior to the onset,strong southwesterly wind appears to the north of 15°N over the SCS,which could not be treated as the onset of the SCS summer monsoon.These strong westerlies are due to the southward propagation of cold front or the strengthening of the subtropical high in the SCS.After the onset,there are active and break periods of the southwesterly summer monsoon,the average break period is about 15 days in one year (from onset of summer monsoon to 20 August).

The Earliest Onset Areas and Mechanism of the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon

The multi-yearly averaged pentad meteorological fields at 850 hPa of theNCEP/NCAR reanalysis dada and the TBB fields of the Japan Meteorological Agency during 1980-1994 areanalyzed. It is found that if the pentad is taken as the time unit of the monsoon onset, then thetropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM) onsets earliest, simultaneously and abruptly over the wholearea in the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP), and the South China Sea (SCS), eastof 90°E, in the 27th to 28th pentads of a year (Pentads 3 to 4 in May), while it onsets later inthe India Peninsula (IP) and the Arabian Sea (AS), west of 90°E. The TASM bursts first at the southend of the IP in the 30th to 31st pentads near 10°N, and advances gradually northward to the wholearea, by the end of June. Analysis of the possible mechanism depicts that the rapid changes of thesurface sensible heat flux, air temperature, and pressure in spring and early summer in the middleto high latitudes of the East Asian continent between 100°E and 120°E are crucially responsiblefor the earliest onset of the TASM in the BOB to the SCS areas. It is their rapid changes thatinduce a continental depression to form and break through the high system of pressure originallylocated in the above continental areas. The low depression in turn introduces the southwesterly tocome into the BOB to the SCS areas, east of 90° E, and thus makes the SCS summer monsoon (SCSSM)burst out earliest in Asia. In the IP to the AS areas, west of 90° E, the surface sensible heatflux almost does not experience obvious change during April and May, which makes the tropical Indiansummer monsoon (TISM) onset later than the SCSSM by about a month. Therefore, it is concluded thatthe meridian of 90° E is the demarcation line between the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM, i.e.,the TISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM, including the SCSSM). Besides, the temporalrelations between the TASM onset and the seasonal variation of the South Asian high (SAH) arediscussed, too, and it is found that there are good relations between the monsoon onset time and theSAH center positions. When the SAH center advances to north of 20°N, the SCSSM onsets, and tonorth of 25° N, the TISM onsets at its south end. Comparison between the onset time such determinedand that with other methodologies shows fair consistency in the SCS area and some differences inthe IP area.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF INTERDECADAL CHANGES OF THE SUMMER MONSOON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The onset dates and intensities for the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon over the past 51 years are established using the reanalyzed gridpoint data of NCEP and SST data from 1950 to 2000.As is shown in the t test,the activities of the SCS monsoon (including the dates of onset and intensities) experienced a significant interdecadal change in the mid-1970s.The monsoon activity is closely related with the anomalies of the general circulation in the mid- and higher-latitudes but it is not related with those of the SST in tropical oceans before 1975.After 1975,the onset is earlier and the intensity is weaker and the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean have significant impacts on the activity of the SCS summer monsoon.These significant changes are thought to be associated with the interdecadal variation of SST over the oceans.

Intraseasonal oscillation features of the South China Sea summer monsoon and its response to abnormal Madden and Julian Oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean

By applying the OLR and wind data, rainfall data and the Madden and Julian Oscillation （MJO） index, the paper deals with in traseasonal oscillation features and interannual differences of the South China Sea （SCS） summer monsoon, distribution of its LF circulation and convection fields and rainfall, and path of summer monsoon ISO spreading, as well as impact of tropical IndoMJO on SCS summer monsoon ISO during 19792008. It is found that （1） there are three intraseasonal oscillations of the SCS summer monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation （ISO） in summer （from May to August） in the climate normal. The SCS summer monsoon ISO goes through six phases （exclusive of weak phase） at every complete fluctuation： developing, the strongest, weakening, restraining, the weakest, and recovering. Due to tropical LC convection spreading to the east and north, the LR convection and circulation fields in the lst3rd and 4th6th phases present the antiphase in the Arabian SeaWest Pa cific latitudinal band. Its corresponding rain bands in the lst3rd and 4th6th phases als present antiphase roughly. The rain band, mainly in tropical regions in the south of 20N, moves eastward with LR convection shifting eastward, while the rain band moves northward with LR convection shifting northward in East Asia （EA） subtropical regions in the north of 20N. （2） The SCS summer monsoon ISO presents significant interannual variations in intensity. There are three stronger monsoon in traseasonal oscillations in summer in the strong SCS monsoon ISO year. The first two oscillations from the tropical Indian Ocean ISO spread northward to the Bay of Bengal first, and then to the South China Sea （SCS） along the 10-20N latitudinal band. They are strengthened there and stimulate the ISO moving to the north to form the tropical IndoISO. Finally they spread to South China （SC） by relay way in the longitudelatitude direction. Moreover, in the weaker SCS summer monsoon ISO, the oscillation weakens greatly and irregularly in intensity with the weaker ISO spreading in the longitudelatitude direction. In average conditions, the tropical Indian ISO spreads to the SCS by about 20 days （one half ISO periods）. （3） MJO1 （the first modal of MJO index provided by the CPC） averaged value in the lst2nd pentads of April has the negative correlation with the SCS monsoon ISO intensity. The tropical IndoMJO is slightly stronger in the subsequent May to August when it is more ac tive in the lst2nd pentads of April, and the ISO also spreads strongly to the SCS, so that the SCS summer monsoon ISO strengthens. Conversely, the SCS summer monsoon ISO weakens. The abnormal MJO in the lst2nd pentads of April contrib utes to a certain theory basis for us to predict the subsequent SCS summer monsoon ISO intensity and analyze the related re gions＇ abnormal rainfall.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON WITH THE SOUTH ASIA HIGH AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL OR INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS

By using NCEP/NCAR daily data of the wind,the vapour and the temperature from 1958 to 1997 as well as the monthly geopotential height and the vertical velocity data,the evolution characteristics of the potential vorticity before and after the onset of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon are studied.An intensity index is developed by using potential vorticity.In the meantime,the relationship between the intensity index and the position as well as the intensity of the South Asia High (SAH) is analyzed.The results show that,the seasonal and interannual variations of the SCS monsoon are remarkable,the anomaly of the summer monsoon is obvious before 1978.The intensity of the SCS monsoon has a close relation with the position of the SAH. When the position of the SAH inclines to west in the previous December,the SAH will incline to north in May and the intensity of the SCS summer monsoon will much enhance.Conversely,the SAH inclines to south,then the intensity of the SCS summer monsoon will be weaker.