Correlation Between the Arabian Sea Surface Temperature and the Onset Period of South Asian Summer Monsoon with Trend Analysis on the Intensity

The long-term trend of the Arabian Sea surface temperature(ASST)during the formation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)is discussed in this manuscript.From April to June,ASST changed from a meridional gradual distribution to a spatially uniform distribution and then to a zonal gradual distribution.The South Asian summer monsoon intensity(SASMI)and South Asian summer monsoon direction(SASMD)indicate that the variation of the ASST is highly related to the formation of the SASM during the summer monsoon period and can contribute to the spread of the SASM from the Southwest Arabian Sea throughout all of South Asia.Results of the correlation between the ASST and SASMI for the same month and its adjacent months were the same,and the areas of the positive correlation between the ASST and SASMI significantly increased from May–June as compared to April–May.The maximum correlation coefficient was 0.86.The results of the ASST and SASMD for the same month and its adjacent months were substantially different.However,the ASST and SASMD for May and April also showed a high positive correlation with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.61 in the southwestern Arabian Sea.Existence of the ASST had a spatially consistent and significant upward trend with a mean increase of 0.6℃during the summer monsoon period from 1980 to 2020(between April and September),whereas the SASMI had a strengthening trend along the western and southwestern regions of the Arabian Sea and the southeastern region of the Arabian Peninsula.Meanwhile,the rest of the study regions showed a declining trend.Overall,the entire study region showed a slight downward trend,and the average value decreased by 0.02ms^(−1).

Thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and tropical Indian Ocean and its relationship to the South Asian summer monsoon

The land-sea thermal contrast is an important driver for monsoon interannual variability and the monsoon onset.The thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Indian Ocean at the mid-upper troposphere is proposed as a thermal contrast index(TCI)for South Asian monsoon.The authors investigate the TCI associated with South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)intensity and SASM onset.It is observed that the TCI considering the Tibetan Plateau and tropical Indian Ocean demonstrates a stronger and closer correlation with SASM intensity(0.87)than either the Tibetan Plateau(0.42)or tropical Indian Ocean(-0.60)singly.It is implied that the TCI could preferably represent the impact of land-sea thermal condition on SASM activity.Further analysis reveals that the evolution of TCI is related to the SASM onset.The TCI is almost always larger in early onset years than it is in late onset years during the period before SASM onset.In addition,the change of the pentad-by-pentad increment of TCI leads the SASM variation.The correlation coefficient between the TCI increment and SASM index reaches a maximum when the TCI increment leads by 15 pentads.The results of this study show that the TCI plays an important role in SASM activities and is a potential indicator for SASM onset forecasting.

Differences and Links between the East Asian and South Asian Summer Monsoon Systems:Characteristics and Variability

This paper analyzes the differences in the characteristics and spatio–temporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport between the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） and South Asian summer monsoon（SASM） systems. The results show obvious differences in summertime rainfall characteristics between these two monsoon systems. The summertime rainfall cloud systems of the EASM show a mixed stratiform and cumulus cloud system, while cumulus cloud dominates the SASM. These differences may be caused by differences in the vertical shear of zonal and meridional circulations and the convergence of water vapor transport fluxes. Moreover, the leading modes of the two systems＇ summertime rainfall anomalies also differ in terms of their spatiotemporal features on the interannual and interdecadal timescales. Nevertheless, several close links with respect to the spatiotemporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport exist between the two monsoon systems. The first modes of summertime rainfall in the SASM and EASM regions reveal a significant negative correlation on the interannual and the interdecadal timescales. This close relationship may be linked by a meridional teleconnection in the regressed summertime rainfall anomalies from India to North China through the southeastern part over the Tibetan Plateau, which we refer to as the South Asia/East Asia teleconnection pattern of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The authors wish to dedicate this paper to Prof. Duzheng YE, and commemorate his 100 thanniversary and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics.

Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century

This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO–monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 （CMIP3） coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index （DMI） was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation （SD） was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble （MME） results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI： 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ＂the strong get stronger＂. Another finding was that ENSO–monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO–summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.

Influence of the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Types of ENSO on the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Based on observational and reanalysis data,the relationships between the eastern Pacific(EP)and central Pacific(CP)types of El Niño−Southern Oscillation(ENSO)during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)are examined.The roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late 1970s.While the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically,the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late 1970s.The drought-producing El Niño warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date line.Accordingly,compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent,leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these regions.Moreover,anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Niño and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Niño,may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods,respectively.El Niño events with the same“flavor”may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies,while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Niño,implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific.

A WAVELET PACKET ENERGY DIAGNOSIS OF SOUTH ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INFLUENCING ON THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH

Based on the wavelet packet decomposition/reconstruction method and the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data set, the relation between the south Asian summer monsoon and the west Pacific subtropical high seasonal variation was discussed, and a corresponding summer monsoon frequency-band energy criterion was defined and introduced for diagnosing the west Pacific subtropical high. Besides, some existing characteristics and rules about the west Pacific subtropical high were further argued and proofed, a few new phenomena and correlation between the south Asian summer monsoon and the west Pacific subtropical high were also revealed and presented.

Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) and upper ocean heat content(HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean.The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon(SWASM)(2.5°–20°N,35°–70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon(SEASM)(2.5°–20°N,70°–110°E).Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift,the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean.The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow.The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO.After the 1976/77 shift,there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM.However,before that shift,their relationship was weak.

Uncertainty in projections of the South Asian summer monsoon under global warming by CMIP6 models:Role of tropospheric meridional thermal contrast

Driven by the increase in CO_(2)concentration,climate models reach a consensus that the large-scale circulation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) becomes weakened but with different magnitudes.This study investigates the major uncertainty sources of the SASM response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO_(2)(abrupt-4×CO_(2))in 18 models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.The projected weakening of the SASM indicated by both zonal and meridional monsoon circulation indices is closely linked to decreases in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the Indian Ocean(EUTT-IUTT).A climate feedback-response analysis method is applied to linearly decompose the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT into the partial changes due to external forcing and internal processes of the earth-atmosphere column.Results show that the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT is contributed positively by the dominant atmospheric dynamic process,followed by the cloud shortwave radiative effect,and negatively by the surface latent heat flux and cloud longwave radiative effect.Contributions from CO_(2)forcing and other internal processes including albedo and water vapor feedbacks,oceanic heat storage,and sensible heat flux are found to be minor.

Interdecadal change in the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in 2000 and contributions from regional tropical SST

The drying trend in the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)area has been a focus of monsoon rainfall studies in the last two decades.However,this study reveals that a signi cant interdecadal change in the SASM rainfall occurred in approximately the year 2000.Obvious spatial inhomo-geneity was a feature of this change,with increased rainfall over the southern part of the India Pakistan border area that extends from the Arabian Sea,as well as in the western Bay of Bengal.Furthermore,there was decreased rainfall over the southern SASM and the western coast of the Indian Peninsula.Numerical experiments using CAM4 show that global SST changes can induce general changes in the SASM circulation consistent with observations.The tropical Pacific/Indian Ocean SST anomalies dominated the Walker and the regional Hadley circulation changes,respectively,while the descending motion anomalies over the southern SASM were further enhanced by the warmer tropical Atlantic SSTs.Moreover,the spatial inhomogeneity of this interdecadal change in the SASM rainfall needs further study.

Seasonal Prediction Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon: ENSEMBLES versus DEMETER

The seasonal forecasting skill with respect to the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) was compared between the European Commission FP7 project(ENSEMBLES) and the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction project(DEMETER). The Webster-Yang index(WYI) was chosen to represent the intensity of the SASM. First, the authors compared the ability to forecast the zonal wind at 850 h Pa(U850) and 200 h Pa(U200) between ENSEMBLES and DEMETER models. The results indicated that the models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, International Organization(ECMWF) and UK Met Office(UKMO) in ENSEMBLES possess greater skill in seasonally forecasting the JJA(June, July, and August) U850, U200, and U850 minus U200 than in DEMETER. Compared to in DEMETER, the JJA U200 and U850 minus U200 forecasting skill was greater for the model from MétéoFrance(MF) in ENSEMBLES over most of the SASM region. The three coupled models(ECMWF, MF, and UKMO), especially the UKMO model in ENSEMBLES, all demonstrated improved skill in their seasonal forecasts compared to in DEMETER with respect to the interannual variability of the SASM. The three ENSEMBLES models also showed better ability in forecasting the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and North Indian Ocean, and more accurately reproduced the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation over northern India, which are related to the SASM. It seems that the couple between the atmospheric system and external forcing of ENSMBLES over Indian Ocean and Pacific is better than that of DEMETER.

Resonance Effect in Interaction Between South Asian Summer Monsoon and ENSO During 1958-2018

The study has shown that the shear component of the vertical integrated kinetic energy(Ks)over the box(40oE-100oE,0-20oN)can be used to measure the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM).Based on its value averaged between June and August,the SASM can be divided into strong and weak monsoon episodes.Between1958 and 2018,there existed 16(16)strong(weak)monsoon episodes.Based on the calendar year,the relationship between the SASM and ENSO episodes can be grouped into six patterns:weak monsoon-El Ni?o(WM-EN),normal monsoon-El Ni?o(NM-EN),weak monsoon-non ENSO(WM-NE),strong monsoon-La Ni?a(SM-LN),normal monsoon-La Ni?a(NM-LN)and strong monsoon-non ENSO(SM-NE).Previous studies suggest that the WM-EN and SM-LN patterns reflect the correlated relationship between the SASM and El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.Therefore,we name these two strongly coupled categories WM-EN and SM-LN as the resonance effect.Two important circulations,i.e.,Walker circulation(WC)and zonal Asian monsoon circulation(MC),in the vertical plane are found to be not always correlated.The MC is controlled by thermal gradients between the Asian landmass and the tropical Indian Ocean,while the WC associated with ENSO events is primarily the east-west thermal gradient between the tropical South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean.Furthermore,the gradient directions caused by different surface thermal conditions are different.The main factor for the resonance effect is the phenomenon that the symbols of SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean and the equatorial eastern Pacific are the same,but are opposite to that of the SSTA near the maritime continent.

Connections Between the South Asian Summer Monsoon and the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature in CMIP5

The South Asian summer monsoon（SASM） precipitation is analyzed based on reanalysis datasets and historical simulation results from 23 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5）. The results show that most models reproduce well the climatological pattern of SASM precipitation, but the main rainfall period lags that of the reanalysis by one month. The relationship between the simulated SASM precipitation and sea surface temperature anomalies（SSTAs） is quite similar to the reanalysis data. This is attributed to the well-reproduced Walker cell anomaly in the tropical zone. It is projected that the negative correlation between SASM precipitation and SSTAs in the eastern equatorial Pacific will weaken and even reverse to a positive one in the period 2070–2096 under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） scenario with strong external forcing（RCP8.5）, while the change of the correlation under moderate forcing（RCP4.5） still has great uncertainty.

Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau-tropical Indian Ocean thermal contrast and the South Asian summer monsoon

The impact of land-sea thermal contrast on the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)was investigated by calculating the atmospheric heat sources(AHS)and baroclinic component with ERA5 data for the period 1979-2019.Using diagnostic and statistical methods,it was found that the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)affects the South Asian monsoon circulation through the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere.The seasonal changes of the AHS of the TP and TIO are reversed.In summer,the TP is the strongest at the same latitude whereas the TIO is the weakest,and the thermal contrast is the most obvious.The heat sources of the TP and TIO are located on the north and south side of the strong baroclinic area of the SASM region,respectively,and both of which are dominated by deep convective heating in the upper troposphere.The TP-TIO regional meridional thermal contrast index(QI)based on the AHS,and the SASM index(MI)based on baroclinicity were found to be strongly positively correlated.In years of abnormally high QI,the thermal contrast between the TP and TIO is strong in summer,which warms the upper troposphere over Eurasia and cools it over the TIO.The stronger temperature gradient enhances the baroclinicity in the troposphere,which results in a strengthening of the low-level westerly airflow and the upper-level easterly airflow.The anomalous winds strengthen the South Asian high(SAH),with the warmer center in the upper troposphere,and the enhanced Walker circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean.Finally,the anomalous circulation leads to much more precipitation over the SASM region.The influence of abnormally low QI is almost the opposite.

Observed Impact of the South Asian Summer Monsoon on the Local Meteorology in the Himalayas

The South Asian summer monsoon（SASM） is the most important climate system in Asia.Using observational data from the HEST2006（Himalayan Exchange between the Surface and Troposphere 2006） campaign and large-scale grid data,this paper analyzed the SASM impact on local meteorological parameters including radiation,temperature,humidity,and wind in the Himalayas.The SASM experienced one active and one break period during the HEST2006 campaign.The local meteorological parameters exhibit great differences between the active period and the break period of the SASM.The radiation fluxes are greater in the break period than in the active period.The air temperature and specific humidity are lower,but soil temperature and wind speed are higher in the break period than in the active period.Further analysis indicates that the SASM greatly affects the meteorological features of the Himalayan region.

Atmospheric Moisture Distribution and Transport over the Tibetan Plateau and the Impacts of the South Asian Summer Monsoon

In this study, by using the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the spatial distribution and transport of total atmospheric moisture over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） are analyzed, together with the associated impacts of the South Asian summer monsoon（SASM）. Acting as a moisture sink in summer, the TP has a net moisture flux of 2.59× 107kg s 1during 1979–2010, with moisture supplies mainly from the southern boundary along the latitude belts over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The total atmospheric moisture over the TP exhibits significant diferences in both spatial distribution and transport between the monsoon active and break periods and between strong and weak monsoon years. Large positive（negative） moisture anomalies occur over the southwest edge of the TP and the Arabian Sea, mainly due to transport of easterly（westerly） anomalies during the monsoon active（break） period. For the whole TP region, the total moisture supply is more strengthened than the climatological mean during the monsoon active period, which is mainly contributed by the transport of moisture from the south edge of the TP. During the monsoon break period, however, the total moisture supply to the TP is slightly weakened. In addition, the TP moisture sink is also strengthened（weakened） in the strong（weak） monsoon years, mainly attributed by the moisture transport in the west-east directions. Our results suggest that the SASM has exerted great impacts on the total atmospheric moisture and its transport over the TP through adjusting the moisture spatial distribution.

Vertical Structures of Atmospheric Properties in Southeast Tibet during the South Asian Summer Monsoon in 2013

In June 2013,a field experiment was conducted in Southeast Tibet in which the air temperature,moisture,and wind were measured by using a GPS sounding system.In the present study,based on these observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data,the vertical structures of these atmospheric properties and the possible influence of the South Asian summer monsoon（SASM） were investigated.On average,the temperature had a lapse rate of 6.8℃ km^（-1） below the tropopause of 18.0 km.A strong moisture inversion occurred at the near-surface,with a strength of 1.7 g kg^（-1）（100 m）^（-1） for specific humidity.During the observation period,the SASM experienced a south phase and a north phase in the middle and by the end of June,respectively.The monsoon＇s evolution led to large changes in convection and circulation over Southeast Tibet,which further affected the local thermal,moisture,and circulation conditions.The strong convection resulted in an elevated tropopause height over Southeast Tibet during the north phase of the SASM,and the large-scale warm and wet air masses delivered by the monsoon caused high local temperature and moisture conditions.

THE TIMING OF SOUTH-ASIAN HIGH ESTABLISHMENT AND ITS RELATION TO TROPICAL ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AND PRECIPITATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA IN SUMMER

The timing of the South Asian High(SAH) establishment over the Indochina Peninsula(IP) from April to May and its relations to the setup of the subsequent tropical Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over eastern-central China in summer are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data,outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)data and the daily precipitation data from 753 weather stations in China.It is found that the transitions of the zonal wind vertical shear and convection establishment over tropical Asia are earlier(later) in the years of early(late) establishment of SAH.In the lower troposphere,anti-cyclonic(cyclonic) anomaly circulation dominates the equatorial Indian Ocean.Correspondingly,the tropical Asian summer monsoon establishes earlier(later).Furthermore,the atmospheric circulation and the water vapor transport in the years of advanced SAH establishment are significantly different from the delayed years in Asia in summer.Out-of-phase distribution of precipitation in eastern-central China will appear with a weak(strong) SAH and western Pacific subtropical high,strong(weak) ascending motion in the area south of Yangtze River but weak(strong) ascending motion in the area north of it,and cyclonic(anti-cyclonic) water vapor flux anomaly circulation from the eastern-central China to western Pacific.Accordingly,the timing of the SAH establishment at the upper levels of IP is indicative of the subsequent onset of the tropical Asian summer monsoon and the flood-drought pattern over eastern-central China in summer.

ANOMALIES OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON RELATED TO SSTA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

SST data from 1945 to 1997 was used to analyze the interannual variability of SST in the South China Sea(SCS). Anomalous variations of the Asian summer monsoon related to the SCS SSTA were statistically investigated and compared with those related to the SSTA of the tropical Pacific. It was found that the anomalous pattern of the Asian summer monsoon related to the SCS SSTA is, to some extent, similar to that related to CEP(tropical central eastern Pacific), and contrary to that of WP(warm pool)SSTA.

Assessment of the Summer South Asian High in Eighteen CMIP5 Models

The South Asian High(SAH) is one of the most important components of the Asian summer monsoon system. To understand the ability of state-of-the-art general circulation models(GCMs) to capture the major characteristics of the SAH, the authors evaluate 18 atmospheric models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5/AMIP). Results show that the multi-model ensemble(MME) mean is able to capture the climatological pattern of the SAH, although its intensity is slightly underestimated. For the interannual variability of the SAH, the MME exhibits good correlation with the reanalysis for the area and intensity index, but poor skill in capturing the east-west oscillation of the SAH. For the interdecadal trend, the MME shows pronounced increasing trends from 1985 to 2008 for the area and intensity indexes, which is consistent with the reanalysis, but fails to capture the westward shift of the SAH center. The individual models show different capacities for capturing climatological patterns, interannual variability, and interdecadal trends of the SAH. Several models fail to capture the climatological pattern, while one model overestimates the intensity of the SAH. Most of the models show good correlations for interannual variability, but nearly half exhibit high root-mean-square difference(RMSD) values. Six models successfully capture the westward shift of the SAH center in the interdecadal trends, while other models fail. The possible causes of the systematic biases involved in several models are also discussed.

Anti-Phase Relationship Between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Summer Monsoon During the Holocene?

The relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) during the Holocene is complicated and remains controversial.In this study,analysis of grain size and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope,as well as accelerator mass spectrometry ^(14)C dating was performed on a sediment core retrieved from the newly revealed muddy deposit on the northern South China Sea continental shelf.The history of the EAWM and EASM were reconstructed for the last 8200 a BP.Further analysis in conjunction with previously published paleo-climate proxies revealed that the relationship between the EAWM and EASM during the Holocene is more complex than a simple and strict anti-phase one-both negative and positive correlations were identified.The EAWM and EASM are negatively correlated around 7500,4800,4200,3200,and 300 a BP(cooling periods),while positively correlated around 7100,3700,and 2100 a BP(warm periods).In particular,both the EAWM and EASM intensified during the three positive correlation periods.However,we also found that the relationship between these two sub-monsoons is anti-phase during the final phase of particularly hot periods like Holocene Optimum and Medieval warm period.The possible impact from variations of solar irradiance on the relationship between the EAWM and EASM was also discussed.