PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE FLOODING AND DROUGHT CALAMITY DURING PAST 1500 YEARSIN THE HAI'AN REGION, JIANGSU PROVINCE

Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes andenvironment evolution, especially in the aspect of calamities, are made on the history documents ofpast 1500 years about Hai'an region, Jiangsu Province. There existed two obvious flooding-droughtfrequently-occurring periods: one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 1000 AD to 1200 AD.The period of 1550 AD to 1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD. The main characteristic of thecalamity periods is that they occurred by turns, and sometimes, both drought and flooding occurredin the same year. The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the mainreason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Hai'an region. Research results also showthat the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with thesolar activity, and therefore, occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with theintensity of the solar activity. This hypothesis may need further study in the future.

NCEES:An Expert System To Nuclear Calamity Evaluation

This paper introduces a nuclear calamity evaluation expert system which is applied to comprehensive evaluation of damage effects of nuclear calamities. It contains hardware environment, overall structure, logical steps and reasoning models, concerning the expert system.

Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series

It is adequate to use the gray theory for modeling and forecasting short-term calamity series. The forecast of calamity gray series is equivalent to predicting an extraordinary event in nature. In order to look for the regularity, the calamity date series, created from the threshold for a fixed time-interval series, are studied. In this paper, the Hurst exponent is applied to defining the long-term memory effect of the simulated calamity series, and is tested for the feasibility of using it as pre-requisite information before the gray modeling and forecasting. Based on the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) model, the time series with a definite length or quantity of data are derived assuming that various kinds of memory effect exist. Different threshold values are defined to yield or to analogize the calamity date series that are required in the prediction of the gray calamity events. After case study, both of the simulated and real seismic data show that the Hurst exponents are greater than 0.5 and, therefore, indicate that the long-term memory ef-fect exists. The correlation between the Hurst exponent and the gray modeling parameter, a, provides criteria for the classification of the forecast.

COMPLAINER'S CALAMITY

CORPORATE WHISTLEBLOWER'S ARREST HIGHLIGHTS HISTORY OF BUSINESS ABUSING LOCAL LAWS TO PERSECUTE ENEMIESA"fake medicine"scandal has ignited a nationwide furor over police procedure,with no less than China's official Xinhua News Agency calling for public security bureaus(PSB)to"exercise power doubly prudently"following the threemonth detention of a corporate whistleblower.

Functional Rehabilitation of the "Soil Reservoir"in Degraded Soils to Control Floods in the Yangtze River Watershed

The reasons for the Yangtze River flood calamity in 1998 are briefly introduced. The authors believe that using a 'soil reservoir' concept is an important means to help control flooding of the Yangtze River.A 'soil reservoir' has a large potential storage capacity and its water can be rapidly 'discharged' into the underground water in a timely fashion. The eroded, infertile soils of the Yangtze River Watershed are currently an obstacle to efficient operation of the 'soil reservoir'. The storage capacity of this 'soil reservoir'has been severely hampered due to intensive soil erosion and the formation of soil crusts. Therefore, possible measures to control floods in the Yangtze River Watershed include: rehabilitating the vegetation to preserve soil and water on the eroded infertile soils, enhancing infiltration of the different soil types, and utilizing the large 'soil reservoir' of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.

THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI

As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949.By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developin g trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to cal cul ate the temporal sequence, the ‘H' exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were d etermi ned. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999.

Nerual Network Expert System and Their Application to Forecasting Water Invasion of Colliery

In this paper, we propose a formal definition, general structure and work principle of the Neural Network Expert System (NNES) based on joint-type knowledge representation, and show a practical application example using NNES for forecasting the water invasion of coal mine.

The Major Recessive Calamities Affecting the Wheat Production in Chuxiong Prefecture and Control Countermeasures

The impact of recessive calamities was analyzed,including seasonal drought,cold injury,dry hot wind and aphid in the wheat production of Chuxiong Prefecture,and the countermeasures that prevented and controlled the recessive calamities in a target-oriented way were proposed,including the improvement of basic farmland,the application of organic manure,the promotion of the breed with high stress resistance,the seedling at suitable date,the improvement of control on fertilizing and watering,the enhancement of management on cultivating and controlling disease in time,and the breeding new variety adaptive to local ecosystem,in order to advance the wheat production in a sustainable way.

The urban unsteady and non-pressure rain pipe flow routing by the dynamical-wave method

The dynamical-wave routing model of the urban unsteady and non-pressure rain pipe flow was established by conservation of mass, momentum and energy, and it was solved by applying the four point implicit difference method and the pursuit method. It was obtained from the experiment checking and comparative analysis that the dynamical-wave muting model can reflect influence like attenuate and backwater when flood peak propagate in pipeline with high calculation precision and vast application scope, and it can be applied in routing of urban rain pipe flow of different slopes and inflow conditions. The routing model supplies a scientific foundation for the town rainfall piping design or checking, disaster administration of storm runoff, and so on.

Economically Challenged Women in Disaster Risk Management: Toward a Resilient Filipino Community

The social and cultural norms shape gender roles which sometimes deprive women of the opportunity to prepare for natural calamities. But the disastrous effect of natural disasters spares no one. It knows no gender. Most of the time, women more than men bear the worse of consequences. The study measures and describes the impact of disaster preparedness sessions on the perception of economically challenged women in Philippines. By using a mixed qualitative and quantitative research method the study found that: 1) the majority of women participants are willing to undergo training in disaster preparedness;2) their awareness in disaster preparedness improved from “basic” to “high” level;3) their level of action in disaster preparedness is still on the “planning stage” and;4) the program effectively changed their attitude towards disaster preparedness and mitigation. The study provided insights on the potential of women in disaster preparedness toward a disaster resilient Filipino community.

Comprehensive System for Urban Flood Prevention in China and Counter-measures to Reduce Calamities

By reviewing the general state of urban flood calamities of the past 40 years and more, this article tries to explore the causes of urban flood, especitlly the man-made factors. It puts forward the ideas of setting up a comprehensive system for urban flood prevention. This comprehensive system consists of six sub-systems such as: 1) command system; 2) system of flood control and drainage works; 3) system of keeping away of flood and coping with flood; 4) system of flood forecast; 5) flood -fighting and rescue system; 6) flood-preventing legislative and insurance system. This article also puts forward the counter-measures to avert floods and reduce the calamities.I.The General State of Urban Flood Calamities for the Last Few Years in