【目的】在危险货物运输路径优化研究中,同时考虑运输成本和沿途其他风险对运输的影响,以期加强风险管控,提升运输安全水平。【方法】采集各类影响危险货物运输的风险因素数据并通过地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)嵌...【目的】在危险货物运输路径优化研究中,同时考虑运输成本和沿途其他风险对运输的影响,以期加强风险管控,提升运输安全水平。【方法】采集各类影响危险货物运输的风险因素数据并通过地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)嵌入运输网络;提出风险阻抗的概念,将其作为路径风险大小的度量;结合运输成本等构建运输总成本最小、运输路径风险总阻抗最小和局部路段风险过大的可能性最小的三目标路径优化模型,并设计NSGA-Ⅲ算法对其进行求解。【结果】与仅考虑总运输成本最小的方案相比,虽然本文模型所得优化路径的运输总成本略微增加,但运输路径风险总阻抗与局部路段风险过大的可能性显著下降;与仅考虑路径总风险最小的方案相比,虽然运输路径风险总阻抗与局部路段风险过大的可能性有一定增加,但增幅较小,而运输成本降低显著。【结论】上述优化模型很好地统筹考虑了运输的经济性与安全性,还考虑了局部路段风险过高的情况,因而具有良好的普适性与应用价值。展开更多
As the economy of China develops, an increasing number of key traffic projects have been undertaken in the west of China, where there are high, steep rock slopes. The collapse of dangerous rock masses, especially foll...As the economy of China develops, an increasing number of key traffic projects have been undertaken in the west of China, where there are high, steep rock slopes. The collapse of dangerous rock masses, especially following a strong earthquake, is one of common geological disasters known in rock slope engineering. Therefore, it is important to study the collapse mechanism of dangerous rock masses induced by an earthquake and the analysis approach of its stability. This study provides a simple and convenient method to determine the collapse mechanisms of two types of dangerous rock masses （i.e. cantilever and upright） associated with the definition and calculation of the safety factor, which is based on the flexure theory of a constant-section beam by combining with the maximum tensile-stress criterion to depict the process of crack propagation caused by seismic waves. The calculation results show that there are critical crack depths in each form of the dangerous rock masses. Once the accumulated depth of the crack growth during an earthquake exceeds the critical depth, the collapse will occur. It is also demonstrated that the crack extension amount of each step is not a constant value, and is closely associated with the current accumulated crack depth. The greater the cumulative crack depth, the more easily the crack propagates. Finally, the validity and applicability of the proposed method are verified through two actual engineering examples.展开更多
The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are...The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed.展开更多
文摘【目的】在危险货物运输路径优化研究中,同时考虑运输成本和沿途其他风险对运输的影响,以期加强风险管控,提升运输安全水平。【方法】采集各类影响危险货物运输的风险因素数据并通过地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)嵌入运输网络;提出风险阻抗的概念,将其作为路径风险大小的度量;结合运输成本等构建运输总成本最小、运输路径风险总阻抗最小和局部路段风险过大的可能性最小的三目标路径优化模型,并设计NSGA-Ⅲ算法对其进行求解。【结果】与仅考虑总运输成本最小的方案相比,虽然本文模型所得优化路径的运输总成本略微增加,但运输路径风险总阻抗与局部路段风险过大的可能性显著下降;与仅考虑路径总风险最小的方案相比,虽然运输路径风险总阻抗与局部路段风险过大的可能性有一定增加,但增幅较小,而运输成本降低显著。【结论】上述优化模型很好地统筹考虑了运输的经济性与安全性,还考虑了局部路段风险过高的情况,因而具有良好的普适性与应用价值。
基金Scientific Research Fund of the Hebei Education Department under Grant No.QN2015166
文摘As the economy of China develops, an increasing number of key traffic projects have been undertaken in the west of China, where there are high, steep rock slopes. The collapse of dangerous rock masses, especially following a strong earthquake, is one of common geological disasters known in rock slope engineering. Therefore, it is important to study the collapse mechanism of dangerous rock masses induced by an earthquake and the analysis approach of its stability. This study provides a simple and convenient method to determine the collapse mechanisms of two types of dangerous rock masses （i.e. cantilever and upright） associated with the definition and calculation of the safety factor, which is based on the flexure theory of a constant-section beam by combining with the maximum tensile-stress criterion to depict the process of crack propagation caused by seismic waves. The calculation results show that there are critical crack depths in each form of the dangerous rock masses. Once the accumulated depth of the crack growth during an earthquake exceeds the critical depth, the collapse will occur. It is also demonstrated that the crack extension amount of each step is not a constant value, and is closely associated with the current accumulated crack depth. The greater the cumulative crack depth, the more easily the crack propagates. Finally, the validity and applicability of the proposed method are verified through two actual engineering examples.
基金This project is sponsored by the CSB under the project No.95-04, China.
文摘The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed.
